Harsh-Marmalade — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$15

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

59.0%

Resolved

Trades

187

lifetime

Volume

$337

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-07

last 05-07 12:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Crypto

90% 52% -$10

Other

10% 36% -$5

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-05-07).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	4	$19	12	12	+0	Down	+$5	05-07 08:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 08:30 UTC	4	$13	57	57	+0	Up	+$7	03-11 08:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 11:05 UTC	3	$13	16	16	+0	Up	+$5	03-11 11:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	6	$13	217	4	+213	Up	-$9	05-07 08:25
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 07:10 UTC	7	$8	9	7	+2	Down	+$0	03-11 07:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	3	$8	4	4	+0	Up	+$0	05-07 07:00
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	4	$8	8	0	+8	Down	+$0	05-07 07:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 06:30 UTC	3	$8	17	4	+13	Up	$0	03-11 06:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 07:20 UTC	3	$8	11	4	+7	Down	$0	03-11 07:25
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	2	$7	12	0	+12	Up	-$2	05-07 07:58
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 6?	3	$7	10	8	+2	No	-$1	05-06 03:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-07 15:30 UTC	4	$7	6	6	+0	Up	+$1	03-07 15:33
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 06:45 UTC	4	$7	11	11	+0	Down	-$1	03-11 06:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 09:00 UTC	2	$6	3	3	+0	Down	+$0	03-11 09:04
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 6?	2	$6	143	143	+0	No	-$4	05-06 03:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	3	$6	7	0	+7	Down	+$1	05-07 07:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 06:35 UTC	3	$6	53	3	+50	Down	$0	03-11 06:40
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 08:50 UTC	2	$6	9	9	+0	Down	-$4	03-11 08:52
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 07:30 UTC	2	$6	4	4	+0	Down	+$2	03-11 07:36
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 11:40 UTC	2	$6	4	4	+0	Down	+$2	03-11 11:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	2	$5	4	4	+0	Down	+$2	05-07 07:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 08:25 UTC	2	$5	5	5	+0	Down	+$1	03-11 08:28
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-07 15:10 UTC	3	$5	7	2	+5	Down	-$1	03-07 15:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 12:35 UTC	2	$5	3	3	+0	Up	+$1	03-11 12:39
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	2	$5	3	3	+0	Down	+$1	05-07 06:06
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 08:40 UTC	2	$4	3	3	+0	Up	+$0	03-11 08:43
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 11:25 UTC	2	$4	4	4	+0	Down	+$0	03-11 11:26
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 07:05 UTC	4	$4	4	4	+0	Down	+$0	03-11 07:11
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 13:00 UTC	2	$4	3	3	+0	Up	+$2	03-11 13:05
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-07 15:20 UTC	4	$4	3	3	+0	Up	+$0	03-07 15:25

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-07 12:35:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x5dcab4…
05-07 12:33:17	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xf80bbd…
05-07 12:31:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x0c3a18…
05-07 12:28:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET	Up	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x021430…
05-07 12:21:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Up	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xf1ad75…
05-07 11:41:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x3b33bb…
05-07 11:39:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x42754e…
05-07 11:35:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0x67b8e8…
05-07 11:23:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12?	Yes	SELL	4	15¢	$1	0xf1e179…
05-07 08:29:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x27b7bc…
05-07 08:27:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0xcdd2b1…
05-07 08:25:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	200	1¢	$2	0x5e3280…
05-07 08:24:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0x9abd66…
05-07 08:23:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	3	65¢	$2	0x9d1c48…
05-07 08:22:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0x4e687a…
05-07 08:21:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	SELL	4	50¢	$2	0x9eb850…
05-07 08:20:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	Down	BUY	4	51¢	$2	0x826ec2…
05-07 08:19:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x37c402…
05-07 08:18:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0xda76d2…
05-07 08:16:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xd3f3e6…
05-07 08:16:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0xccec94…
05-07 08:07:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x6f059a…
05-07 08:07:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET	Up	BUY	3	70¢	$2	0x21a6e0…
05-07 08:02:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xab0816…
05-07 08:00:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Down	BUY	2	88¢	$2	0x6b99c6…
05-07 07:58:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Up	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xfb492d…
05-07 07:55:41	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET	Down	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0x2c3b46…
05-07 07:54:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Down	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0x241ccc…
05-07 07:51:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET	Up	BUY	3	69¢	$2	0x7fffea…
05-07 07:48:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0xbff8d6…
05-07 07:46:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET	Down	BUY	4	46¢	$2	0x4a48dc…
05-07 07:44:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	2	94¢	$2	0x0b2b79…
05-07 07:42:14	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x4c19ed…
05-07 07:42:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0x2d876b…
05-07 07:39:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x60fa4f…
05-07 07:39:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x1b5fb3…
05-07 07:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0xdd70df…
05-07 07:39:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Down	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x92173f…
05-07 07:26:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0x975b87…
05-07 07:23:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xdeec01…
05-07 07:06:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Up	BUY	2	58¢	$1	0x07ad14…
05-07 07:06:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	SELL	4	100¢	$3	0x4e328b…
05-07 07:02:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xf28226…
05-07 07:00:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0x1c6485…
05-07 06:59:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x2b2a49…
05-07 06:59:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x11a51c…
05-07 06:06:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x6a155e…
05-07 06:03:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xe89bec…
05-07 06:00:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x55b52e…
05-07 05:57:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x7f6d0c…
05-07 05:56:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 7?	Yes	SELL	5	46¢	$2	0x17b031…
05-07 05:54:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	SELL	2	14¢	$0	0x9ef06f…
05-07 05:51:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET	Up	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x74b462…
05-07 05:50:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0xed77fb…
05-07 05:47:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x838a1a…
05-07 05:46:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	SELL	1	99¢	$1	0x8ea184…
05-07 05:44:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	1	92¢	$1	0x0b3f41…
05-06 04:15:38	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x59344a…
05-06 04:03:58	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0xf98e30…
05-06 04:03:14	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 7?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x2b2304…
05-06 04:00:10	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 6?	Yes	SELL	3	94¢	$2	0xbe76bf…
05-06 03:59:30	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 6?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x8a6928…
05-06 03:49:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 6?	Yes	SELL	8	5¢	$0	0x87fa9d…
05-06 03:49:12	Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 6?	Yes	SELL	94	0¢	$0	0x271d45…
05-06 03:49:06	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 6?	Yes	SELL	143	1¢	$1	0x0e5361…
05-05 14:42:00	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 5?	Yes	SELL	2	90¢	$2	0x12fbcb…
05-05 13:07:02	Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 5?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0x82e12e…
05-05 11:27:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 5?	Yes	SELL	22	2¢	$1	0xa0fef8…
05-05 08:06:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 6?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x76904b…
05-05 08:06:08	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 6?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x6f360b…
05-05 07:55:38	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 5?	Yes	SELL	7	8¢	$1	0xf8c1e2…
05-05 07:54:56	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 5?	Yes	SELL	17	7¢	$1	0x727651…
05-05 07:49:58	Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on May 6?	Yes	BUY	94	2¢	$1	0x1bb97e…
05-05 07:49:18	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 6?	Yes	SELL	8	38¢	$3	0xbc1f46…
05-05 07:44:54	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on May 6?	Yes	BUY	8	39¢	$3	0x048081…
05-05 07:36:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	SELL	2	64¢	$1	0x4790ac…
05-05 07:35:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET	Up	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x188fc4…
05-05 07:33:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	SELL	8	23¢	$2	0x46d299…
05-05 07:32:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xb7e3a7…
05-05 07:28:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET	Down	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x21ece1…
05-05 05:57:00	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C or higher on May 6?	Yes	BUY	143	3¢	$5	0x86683b…
05-04 13:49:40	Will "Doors - Noah Kahan" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week?	Yes	BUY	110	1¢	$1	0xfc27c0…
05-04 12:23:30	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 5?	Yes	BUY	46	2¢	$1	0xc04a5a…
05-04 12:07:16	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	38¢	$1	0x004538…
05-04 12:04:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Down	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x78d43f…
05-04 12:03:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	SELL	3	45¢	$1	0x45c189…
05-04 12:02:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x0db736…
05-04 11:52:16	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0xe2116a…
03-11 13:12:27	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 13:10 UTC	Down	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x227c0b…
03-11 13:11:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 13:10 UTC	Down	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xc5279c…
03-11 13:06:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 13:05 UTC	Down	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x591476…
03-11 13:05:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 13:00 UTC	Up	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x1c2e65…
03-11 13:04:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 13:00 UTC	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x47e183…
03-11 12:59:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 12:55 UTC	Down	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x366f1c…
03-11 12:51:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 12:50 UTC	Down	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0x35756c…
03-11 12:43:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 12:40 UTC	Up	BUY	33	6¢	$2	0x4249f1…
03-11 12:39:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 12:35 UTC	Up	SELL	3	98¢	$3	0x5fc37a…
03-11 12:38:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 12:35 UTC	Up	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x255a80…
03-11 11:43:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 11:40 UTC	Down	SELL	4	95¢	$4	0x108a68…
03-11 11:42:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-11 11:40 UTC	Down	BUY	4	52¢	$2	0x2905ce…