Long-Toad — Polymarket

Realized P&L (30d)

+$0

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved (30d)

Trades (30d)

315 lifetime

Volume (30d)

$256

$3.46K lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-06

last 11-08 11:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 231 days

Categories

Other

94% 100% +$5

Politics

6% 90% -$23

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

76 active days in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on November 9?	No		+9	$9	100¢	$9	$0	11-08 11:40

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump say "Strait" or "Hormuz" during events with Xi Jinping?	1	$26	27	+27	No	-$26	05-15 05:05
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on May 2?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	05-02 15:05
Trump out as President by April 30?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-30 08:53
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	1	$25	26	+26	Yes	+$1	05-03 03:37
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on April 29?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-29 13:02
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 28?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-28 08:42
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on April 27?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-28 01:47
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 27?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-27 14:16
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 52-53°F on April 26?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-27 02:10
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on April 26?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-26 09:19
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on April 25?	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-25 15:16
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	1	$25	25	+25	No	+$0	04-24 09:08
highest temperature in tokyo on april 23 2026 19c	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-23 07:23
highest temperature in jakarta on april 22 2026 35c	1	$25	25	+25	Yes	+$0	04-22 10:20
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	1	$23	25	+25	No	+$1	04-21 12:45
highest temperature in los angeles on april 20 2026 72 73f	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-21 01:28
highest temperature in tel aviv on april 20 2026 24c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-20 16:53
highest temperature in wellington on april 20 2026 16c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-20 06:21
highest temperature in lucknow on april 19 2026 42c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-19 16:10
highest temperature in wellington on april 19 2026 16c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-19 08:46
highest temperature in busan on april 18 2026 25corhigher	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-18 08:13
highest temperature in moscow on april 17 2026 15c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-17 15:23
highest temperature in wellington on april 17 2026 20c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-17 05:40
highest temperature in ankara on april 16 2026 21c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-16 15:56
highest temperature in wellington on april 16 2026 18c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-16 07:43
highest temperature in istanbul on april 15 2026 17c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-15 14:53
highest temperature in wellington on april 15 2026 18c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-15 06:57
highest temperature in toronto on april 14 2026 23c	1	$23	23	+23	Yes	+$0	04-15 03:45
highest temperature in ankara on april 14 2026 19c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-14 15:39
highest temperature in wellington on april 14 2026 20c	1	$23	23	+23	No	+$0	04-14 05:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-08 11:40:51	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on November 9?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xfa6d1f…
11-07 10:56:27	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 4°C or below on November 7?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x78e7bf…
11-06 09:59:43	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on November 6?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x8662d7…
11-05 00:26:55	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 7°C or below on November 5?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xa8787e…
11-03 17:51:01	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on November 4?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x6ecea0…
11-03 09:10:40	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on November 3?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x4dce77…
11-02 10:05:22	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on November 2?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xce8c8e…
11-01 07:13:03	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on November 1?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x9f7da7…
10-31 07:34:46	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 68-69°F on October 31?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x1e2ce0…
10-30 08:58:18	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on October 30?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x29fc45…
10-29 17:32:40	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 29?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xef405c…
10-29 07:07:37	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C on October 29?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xd49cc0…
10-28 04:55:46	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on October 28?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x79060b…
10-27 15:57:39	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x5bae9e…
10-27 07:51:27	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 16°C on October 27?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xad6eeb…
10-26 04:05:42	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 11°C on October 26?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x129ed3…
10-24 06:45:33	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 17°C on October 24?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xad644f…
10-22 09:46:33	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 13°C on October 22?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x1b38ad…
10-20 04:33:03	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on October 20?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xfe3e0c…
10-19 06:23:08	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on October 19?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xc99712…
10-18 06:55:41	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on October 18?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x7d4a8f…
10-17 07:17:18	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 23°C on October 17?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x33208b…
10-16 04:31:42	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 88-89°F on October 15?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xa18721…
10-15 05:38:40	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 15?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x031b59…
10-14 06:47:53	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on October 14?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x76039e…
10-13 13:27:20	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 19°C on October 13?	Yes	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x23911c…
10-13 01:06:02	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on October 12?	Yes	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0xbafd72…
10-12 01:07:05	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on October 12?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x2548d8…
10-11 01:36:14	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on October 10?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x073343…
10-08 04:44:58	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on October 8?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xbf53fe…
10-07 08:47:12	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on October 7?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$8	0x725144…
10-06 14:59:59	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on October 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf0020a…
10-06 05:15:49	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on October 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5ffa5f…
10-04 07:51:55	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on October 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x16267c…
10-03 00:48:14	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 86-87°F on October 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf48bce…
10-02 07:17:15	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on October 2?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xed68b6…
10-02 03:10:05	Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 82-83°F on October 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x18fc48…
10-01 05:47:12	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 1?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe24860…
09-30 07:36:44	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 30?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x8f99e1…
09-29 06:42:30	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on September 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x358e3d…
09-28 07:38:51	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on September 28?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x13583f…
09-27 10:42:20	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on September 27?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x472c74…
09-26 08:23:42	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 26?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5dbf93…
09-25 07:10:51	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on September 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6287b9…
09-24 06:35:44	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on September 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0c5ffd…
09-23 05:11:22	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on September 23?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x42fe30…
09-22 01:07:12	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on September 21?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9dffab…
09-21 08:09:39	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on September 21?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x1c23f1…
09-20 02:13:51	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on September 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc11498…
09-19 05:40:19	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C or below on September 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x889ba6…
09-18 09:49:24	Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on September 18?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc89aaf…
09-18 01:05:15	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on September 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6510d7…
09-17 00:56:19	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on September 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4b3f65…
09-16 07:16:24	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on September 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9523df…
09-15 23:25:49	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on September 15?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x53e23d…
09-15 01:04:12	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C or below on September 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xc39f44…
09-14 00:46:18	Will the highest temperature in Busan be 26°C or below on September 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x819442…
09-13 12:46:25	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on September 13?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4e9af8…
09-12 03:31:30	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 24°C on September 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7403c6…
09-11 01:08:19	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on September 10?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x514959…
09-10 01:25:34	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on September 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4aa334…
09-09 00:51:49	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on September 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x413d9d…
09-08 01:03:39	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on September 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x7a0cfc…
09-07 01:46:30	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on September 7?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x66ec4f…
09-06 07:11:15	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or below on September 6?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5e495b…
09-06 01:06:36	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on September 5?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdbad47…
09-05 09:15:18	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on September 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe7b44e…
09-04 08:14:19	Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on September 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x10e258…
09-03 01:08:39	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on September 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x025341…
09-02 11:03:51	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on September 2?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x59186c…
09-01 01:19:12	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on August 31?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x29253a…
08-30 00:10:24	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 29?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5f5960…
08-29 05:46:31	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on August 29?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0570a5…
08-28 01:24:13	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on August 28?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0f1bf8…
08-27 01:14:06	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on August 27?	No	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x6ea1a9…
08-26 01:58:18	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x062c3e…
08-25 01:05:16	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on August 25?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x750ffe…
08-24 07:10:40	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on August 24?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xdad709…
08-23 01:01:39	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 106-107°F on August 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x9d2a77…
08-22 01:20:42	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 22?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x61e1f2…
08-21 01:14:31	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 20?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xa3919f…
08-20 05:30:07	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on August 20?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x585f4f…
08-19 00:24:00	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on August 19?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x0a93bc…
08-18 00:11:09	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on August 17?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x318251…
08-17 05:09:51	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 11°C on August 17?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4c3dd2…
08-16 01:37:51	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on August 16?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xf9b0f6…
08-15 02:30:10	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on August 15?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x4ea68a…
08-14 01:18:30	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on August 14?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5a8652…
08-13 00:12:16	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 94-95°F on August 12?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2d97e1…
08-12 00:22:21	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on August 11?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x793367…
08-11 00:13:21	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 10?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x06413a…
08-10 00:17:21	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on August 10?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x2a5161…
08-09 00:18:52	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on August 9?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x64b0e0…
08-08 00:15:57	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C or below on August 8?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x70b18b…
08-07 00:14:08	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on August 6?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x43d087…
08-06 00:19:09	Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on August 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbdcae8…
08-05 00:29:15	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on August 5?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x16c3c6…
08-04 00:30:18	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on August 4?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x5b44f8…
08-03 00:11:09	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 80-81°F on August 2?	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe81e16…
08-02 00:14:24	Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on August 1?	Yes	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x80258f…