Reflecting-Leisure — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$58.2K

Unrealized P&L

+$1.11K

Hit rate

73.4%

Resolved

Trades

2,653

lifetime

Volume

$3.16M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.19K

Open exposure

$216.2K

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-13

last 10-27 20:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 17 days

Categories

Other

59% 80% +$58,721

Politics

41% 80% -$543

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Trump out as President before 2027?	No	-152,150	-$142,606	96¢	$-145760	-$3,154	10-27 20:11
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	+73,030	$65,134	95¢	$69.4K	+$4,245	10-27 16:52
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	+1,124	$1,028	93¢	$1.0K	+$15	10-27 20:12

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	31	$479.7K	266,448	222,140	+44,308	No	-$4,440	02-05 19:34
will there be no change in fed interest rates after the march 2026 meeting	214	$410.1K	277,597	138,396	+139,200	Yes	+$4,454	03-18 20:07
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	57	$405.5K	249,000	167,820	+81,180	No	+$9,819	04-01 06:06
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	160	$270.7K	276,742	7,356	+269,386	Yes	+$13,256	01-27 07:56
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	39	$269.9K	173,800	173,800	+0	open	—	10-02 18:03
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	66	$249.3K	126,622	126,622	+0	Yes	+$1,343	04-22 09:22
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	44	$215.4K	223,408	0	+223,408	Yes	+$8,006	02-05 19:35
Trump out as President before 2027?	80	$203.8K	32,670	184,820	-152,150	open	—	10-27 20:11
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	42	$178.2K	143,208	70,178	+73,030	open	—	10-27 16:52
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	10	$101.8K	126,400	0	+126,400	Yes	+$24,614	09-12 07:56
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	8	$95.1K	0	100,093	-100,093	Yes	-$5,005	05-02 14:08
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	8	$67.5K	40,000	40,000	+0	No	-$1,860	03-15 10:23
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	9	$64.1K	74,360	2,860	+71,500	No	+$13,093	09-16 19:00
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	33	$59.2K	32,549	32,549	+0	open	—	09-17 18:21
will any eu country strike iran by march 31	35	$15.5K	15,300	800	+14,500	No	+$612	03-24 07:56
will uk strike iran by march 31	34	$11.3K	11,300	600	+10,700	No	+$534	03-24 14:46
will qatar strike iran by march 31	47	$8.9K	8,880	1,000	+7,880	No	+$937	04-01 06:02
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	6	$8.7K	4,509	4,509	+0	No	+$320	06-23 13:26
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	13	$8.2K	4,200	4,200	+0	No	+$181	06-11 13:18
will jordan strike iran by march 31	12	$7.5K	3,800	3,800	+0	No	+$56	04-01 06:02
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?	1,655	$6.8K	378,269	0	+378,269	No	-$6,776	01-30 07:15
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	2	$5.6K	3,000	3,000	+0	Yes	+$402	05-12 15:03
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	3	$3.7K	3,985	0	+3,985	No	+$253	05-12 18:34
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	5	$2.9K	3,047	0	+3,047	Yes	+$124	09-30 03:28
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	7	$1.9K	240,000	0	+240,000	No	-$1,914	09-15 18:16
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	5	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	open	—	10-09 08:19
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?	11	$1.4K	1,490	0	+1,490	No	+$132	08-27 04:40
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	3	$1.0K	1,124	0	+1,124	open	—	10-27 20:12
kharg island no longer under iranian control by july 31	2	$566	289	289	+0	No	+$7	07-26 09:40
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	5	$333	210	210	+0	No	+$2	10-21 06:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 20:12:17	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	159	93¢	$148	0xc28ad0…
10-27 20:11:35	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	150	96¢	$144	0xf827ec…
10-27 16:52:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	82	93¢	$76	0x33873b…
10-27 13:53:54	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	65	92¢	$60	0x6e65a2…
10-27 13:51:50	Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	900	91¢	$821	0x94f25d…
10-27 13:50:48	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	96¢	$958	0xca17cc…
10-23 16:55:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0x69a1db…
10-23 16:55:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,660	92¢	$1,527	0x5273bd…
10-23 16:54:24	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	800	96¢	$766	0x1c1f44…
10-23 16:54:06	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	800	96¢	$766	0x075233…
10-23 11:04:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	3,480	94¢	$3,271	0x387145…
10-23 07:07:38	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	400	96¢	$384	0xa69f8f…
10-22 21:08:14	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	2,000	96¢	$1,922	0xaf469a…
10-22 20:43:29	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	96¢	$961	0x85706a…
10-22 20:30:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,040	94¢	$1,918	0x2c0516…
10-22 20:29:35	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	96¢	$961	0xb15adf…
10-22 20:29:14	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	96¢	$962	0xbf93ee…
10-22 19:45:11	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,050	94¢	$1,927	0x07e8f8…
10-22 18:39:17	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	2,000	96¢	$1,926	0x8eddc8…
10-21 14:57:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x397742…
10-21 14:56:51	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	180	87¢	$157	0xcb1894…
10-21 06:02:56	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	210	80¢	$168	0x1771d7…
10-20 14:16:17	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x20be22…
10-20 14:16:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	87¢	$435	0x5364ba…
10-20 14:14:29	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	10	77¢	$8	0xf22495…
10-20 14:13:59	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	398	96¢	$381	0x077d42…
10-20 13:58:32	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	600	87¢	$522	0x66c326…
10-20 10:35:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	11	77¢	$8	0x60ce3b…
10-19 18:11:06	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	6	96¢	$6	0x14db9e…
10-19 17:30:00	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	412	96¢	$397	0x073206…
10-19 17:20:23	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x68a150…
10-19 17:19:57	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x54fc82…
10-19 17:19:30	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x88c712…
10-19 17:19:05	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0xe98fd4…
10-19 17:18:36	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x572b39…
10-19 17:17:53	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0x43b4a5…
10-19 17:05:33	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	4	96¢	$4	0x2cfb53…
10-19 16:12:54	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,834	85¢	$1,559	0x66ba68…
10-19 16:02:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	85¢	$4	0x88c1a6…
10-19 15:56:30	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	391	85¢	$332	0x80fa81…
10-19 14:38:30	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	2,000	96¢	$1,928	0xdfe615…
10-19 08:11:27	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	42	79¢	$33	0x434f44…
10-18 22:11:14	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	170	87¢	$148	0x7bc166…
10-18 22:09:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	4,500	87¢	$3,915	0x956352…
10-18 22:08:53	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	2,000	96¢	$1,914	0xc0fe76…
10-18 22:08:38	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	2,000	96¢	$1,915	0xefff90…
10-18 22:06:45	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	500	87¢	$435	0x2b57a6…
10-18 22:06:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2,000	87¢	$1,740	0x7bc70f…
10-18 22:05:57	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	96¢	$958	0x5cb2a3…
10-18 22:05:41	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	96¢	$958	0x27f908…
10-18 22:05:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5,000	87¢	$4,350	0xe00e33…
10-18 22:05:02	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	5,000	96¢	$4,793	0x040265…
10-18 22:04:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8,000	87¢	$6,960	0xebd8a1…
10-18 22:04:00	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	87¢	$8,700	0x33558d…
10-18 22:03:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	87¢	$8,700	0xb70f6d…
10-18 22:03:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	87¢	$8,700	0x6acb21…
10-18 22:03:29	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10,000	87¢	$8,700	0x0f2589…
10-18 22:02:50	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	500	96¢	$480	0x337ac7…
10-18 22:02:29	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	2,000	96¢	$1,921	0x7dd2ff…
10-18 19:13:42	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	504	96¢	$484	0xdb408a…
10-18 19:12:56	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	30,996	96¢	$29,756	0xfe9e71…
10-18 19:12:11	Trump out as President before 2027?	No	SELL	9,900	96¢	$9,509	0xceb076…
10-16 06:02:36	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	147	79¢	$117	0x5244ba…
10-14 10:07:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	30,000	80¢	$24,000	0xa4e3fd…
10-14 10:04:23	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,177	81¢	$954	0x772be2…
10-14 10:03:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	7	81¢	$6	0x6fc568…
10-14 10:02:05	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	12	81¢	$10	0x439279…
10-14 10:01:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	2	81¢	$1	0xf2d778…
10-14 10:01:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	8	81¢	$6	0xa0f0e4…
10-14 10:01:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	70	81¢	$57	0x9ef485…
10-14 10:01:50	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	8	81¢	$6	0x7a8be2…
10-14 10:01:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	81¢	$4	0xf0a21a…
10-14 10:01:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	123	81¢	$99	0xd34d97…
10-14 10:01:47	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	7,000	81¢	$5,670	0x6d0e0c…
10-14 10:01:19	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	31,767	81¢	$25,731	0x4db5f7…
10-09 13:38:43	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	84¢	$9	0x49c40b…
10-09 13:35:24	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,123	84¢	$943	0x96b133…
10-09 08:19:15	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	SELL	1,000	95¢	$950	0x6f07cb…
10-05 14:00:26	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	55	82¢	$45	0x28c584…
10-02 18:08:15	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8	82¢	$7	0xe1d932…
10-02 18:07:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	8,982	82¢	$7,365	0x294ebc…
10-02 18:06:35	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	60,000	82¢	$49,200	0x312106…
10-02 18:05:15	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	900	94¢	$846	0x1d0a93…
10-02 18:03:44	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	29	94¢	$27	0xc0b451…
10-02 18:03:23	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	69,000	84¢	$57,960	0x1e38cc…
10-02 07:06:54	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0xd59f11…
10-01 09:40:05	Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	No	BUY	65	94¢	$61	0x5ed715…
09-30 03:28:23	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	16	97¢	$16	0x8a626c…
09-29 06:23:33	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	97¢	$5	0x7fc159…
09-29 06:23:08	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0xdd47f9…
09-28 19:07:15	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0xeca2a8…
09-28 16:35:47	US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	3,010	96¢	$2,887	0x8ee8f3…
09-20 02:03:18	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	16	93¢	$15	0x712d6e…
09-19 10:33:47	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	8	92¢	$7	0x4468f9…
09-19 10:32:28	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	101	92¢	$92	0x93b16f…
09-19 07:50:48	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	40	85¢	$34	0x98911d…
09-19 07:46:36	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	80	87¢	$70	0x86ac03…
09-19 07:35:52	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	14	93¢	$13	0x7dc31b…
09-19 07:34:19	Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 24?	Yes	BUY	10	93¢	$9	0x7a01c1…
09-17 18:21:46	Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5,249	95¢	$4,987	0xb3f8af…