Cloudy-Rediscovery — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.42K

Unrealized P&L

+$925

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

603

lifetime

Volume

$1.71M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.84K

Open exposure

$106.4K

5 positions

First seen

2026-01-20

last 06-09 15:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

70% 100% +$2,386

Politics

30% 100% +$30

Crypto

0% — —

Sports

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 55 trades/day

Open positions (5) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	+75,643	$66,257	86¢	$64.7K	$-1,582	06-09 15:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	+26,180	$21,085	90¢	$23.7K	+$2,608	06-04 21:01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	+8,974	$8,134	88¢	$7.9K	$-192	06-01 14:22
Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	-6,536	$-6,386	98¢	$-6418	$-33	06-05 17:14
Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	+4,101	$3,587	90¢	$3.7K	+$124	06-09 15:27

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	22	$227.3K	122,201	122,201	+0	open	—	05-27 23:15
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	20	$212.0K	121,676	121,676	+0	open	—	03-09 02:27
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	14	$135.4K	78,548	78,548	+0	open	—	04-01 04:01
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	66	$133.8K	72,793	72,056	+737	open	—	06-02 14:54
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	17	$106.2K	54,267	54,267	+0	open	—	03-01 05:11
will andr ventura win the 2026 portugal presidential election	16	$91.0K	76,897	16,152	+60,745	open	—	01-30 21:29
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	23	$74.0K	39,802	39,818	-17	open	—	03-05 16:54
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	43	$66.3K	75,643	0	+75,643	open	—	06-09 15:40
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	13	$59.7K	49,180	23,000	+26,180	open	—	06-04 21:01
kharg island no longer under iranian control by april 15	38	$59.7K	31,416	31,416	+0	open	—	04-08 02:35
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	18	$59.6K	30,556	32,354	-1,798	open	—	03-03 03:05
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?	6	$58.0K	30,076	30,076	+0	open	—	03-03 03:08
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	10	$42.7K	24,041	24,041	+0	open	—	04-29 21:26
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	46	$41.9K	36,039	20,000	+16,039	open	—	05-25 14:13
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?	35	$36.1K	26,512	12,054	+14,458	No	+$2,386	05-04 16:29
us iran nuclear deal by march 31	20	$34.5K	19,167	19,167	+0	open	—	03-09 02:31
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	43	$31.4K	18,150	18,150	+0	open	—	01-30 23:57
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	4	$29.7K	30,699	0	+30,699	open	—	01-20 07:09
Iran leadership change by April 30?	5	$26.6K	29,550	0	+29,550	open	—	04-08 04:14
us forces enter iran by march 31 222 191 243 517 878 439 519	8	$24.0K	12,309	12,309	+0	open	—	04-01 03:45
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	6	$20.7K	11,532	11,532	+0	open	—	03-02 14:55
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	2	$17.7K	10,000	10,000	+0	open	—	06-05 17:27
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	1	$15.8K	16,900	0	+16,900	open	—	05-30 03:58
Kash Patel out by June 30?	10	$14.0K	9,791	5,691	+4,101	open	—	06-09 15:27
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	2	$13.4K	10,000	4,634	+5,366	open	—	05-27 03:06
will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	15	$10.1K	5,244	5,244	+0	open	—	04-15 22:20
ilhan omar town hall attack staged	6	$9.8K	5,835	4,203	+1,632	open	—	02-13 13:49
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	8	$8.1K	8,974	0	+8,974	open	—	06-01 14:22
will iran name a successor to khamenei by march 1 334	8	$7.0K	3,707	3,707	+0	open	—	03-01 15:05
Netanyahu out by June 30?	1	$6.4K	0	6,536	-6,536	open	—	06-05 17:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 15:40:33	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	67	86¢	$58	0xb8de7b…
06-09 15:37:27	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x95b3d8…
06-09 15:36:28	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	58	86¢	$50	0xa58df7…
06-09 15:36:13	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	86¢	$86	0x9c91c0…
06-09 15:35:21	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,135	86¢	$1,836	0x0a4374…
06-09 15:34:13	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	0	86¢	$0	0xd21482…
06-09 15:34:04	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15	86¢	$13	0x81415c…
06-09 15:33:19	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	235	86¢	$202	0xec7288…
06-09 15:32:12	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	18	85¢	$15	0x0ab10e…
06-09 15:31:22	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	17	85¢	$14	0x1b2ffd…
06-09 15:31:10	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	80	85¢	$68	0xc26a8f…
06-09 15:30:31	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	106	85¢	$90	0xe8594f…
06-09 15:30:07	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	120	84¢	$101	0x5aba87…
06-09 15:29:54	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	60	83¢	$50	0xd4ce67…
06-09 15:29:42	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	20	82¢	$16	0x3e7616…
06-09 15:28:48	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	117	82¢	$96	0xe5bb28…
06-09 15:27:36	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	48	85¢	$41	0x8ff6de…
06-09 15:27:36	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0x4a4021…
06-09 15:27:36	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	28	85¢	$24	0x1b7a83…
06-09 15:27:15	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,948	86¢	$1,672	0xac3e70…
06-09 15:26:54	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	756	84¢	$635	0xe8c6ae…
06-09 15:26:24	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	93	91¢	$85	0x68b49a…
06-09 15:26:24	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	6	91¢	$5	0x02e483…
06-09 15:26:22	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	SELL	5,589	91¢	$5,109	0x14d4c4…
06-08 21:11:42	trump orders federal review of ai model releases by june 30	No	BUY	95	69¢	$66	0x014094…
06-05 17:38:15	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	349	88¢	$307	0x299bcc…
06-05 17:37:58	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	5,000	88¢	$4,400	0x49c1c8…
06-05 17:29:54	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	72	88¢	$63	0xcae70e…
06-05 17:29:54	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	72	88¢	$63	0x2b8c15…
06-05 17:29:21	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,487	88¢	$2,189	0x6d8758…
06-05 17:28:42	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	21	88¢	$19	0xed2869…
06-05 17:28:31	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	88¢	$1	0xbcc329…
06-05 17:28:21	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	211	88¢	$186	0x3c01c8…
06-05 17:28:06	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	88¢	$2	0x232eb0…
06-05 17:27:58	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,648	88¢	$1,450	0xa06ebd…
06-05 17:27:43	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	205	87¢	$178	0x1f7901…
06-05 17:27:22	us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	No	SELL	10,000	89¢	$8,900	0x13a297…
06-05 17:19:30	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,700	89¢	$1,510	0xb5e32d…
06-05 17:18:37	iran closes its airspace by june 15	No	SELL	1,700	89¢	$1,517	0x274468…
06-05 17:17:04	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,650	88¢	$1,452	0x9f373d…
06-05 17:16:36	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	SELL	1,489	95¢	$1,418	0x83bb0e…
06-05 17:15:37	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4,600	88¢	$4,048	0xb1f6b4…
06-05 17:14:55	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,630	87¢	$2,285	0x4f9bbf…
06-05 17:14:21	Netanyahu out by June 30?	No	SELL	6,536	98¢	$6,386	0x41ee4b…
06-04 21:02:06	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16,968	89¢	$15,101	0x4bc5d2…
06-04 21:01:40	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4,694	88¢	$4,131	0x6e810e…
06-04 21:01:13	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	SELL	23,000	84¢	$19,320	0xa1031d…
06-02 23:49:45	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	925	79¢	$731	0x75c1ed…
06-02 14:54:22	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xb4e2d2…
06-02 14:53:38	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	BUY	3,795	92¢	$3,489	0xab7d7f…
06-02 14:52:07	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6,319	91¢	$5,743	0xcb14f2…
06-02 14:50:08	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4,552	90¢	$4,097	0x6bb77f…
06-02 14:49:49	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,395	89¢	$2,132	0x8f59e0…
06-02 14:49:12	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	10,000	99¢	$9,930	0x8f99ed…
06-02 14:48:56	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	10,041	99¢	$9,981	0xf29479…
06-01 15:11:54	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	BUY	1,020	90¢	$918	0x25db92…
06-01 15:07:06	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	21,000	99¢	$20,834	0x61bcdf…
06-01 15:02:50	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	BUY	1,030	90¢	$927	0xb63144…
06-01 15:02:26	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	BUY	215	89¢	$191	0xb68208…
06-01 15:00:14	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	3,884	84¢	$3,263	0xf521f9…
06-01 14:57:04	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	12,664	83¢	$10,511	0x475f4d…
06-01 14:56:30	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	15,000	99¢	$14,899	0x37874b…
06-01 14:24:53	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,650	86¢	$1,419	0x88dd99…
06-01 14:24:06	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	4,901	82¢	$4,019	0xa77467…
06-01 14:23:31	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2,248	85¢	$1,911	0x5a8894…
06-01 14:22:56	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	303	90¢	$272	0xb7d395…
06-01 14:22:32	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	65	90¢	$58	0x1610ba…
06-01 14:22:28	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	1,420	90¢	$1,278	0xd75df6…
06-01 14:21:53	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	88¢	$8,800	0x880cf4…
06-01 14:21:53	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	985	90¢	$887	0x4552fe…
06-01 14:20:29	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0x2a50b6…
06-01 14:19:58	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	98	90¢	$88	0xb52e39…
06-01 14:19:54	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	2,964	90¢	$2,667	0x4b30f8…
06-01 14:18:46	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	293	90¢	$264	0xd9a490…
06-01 14:17:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	11,271	82¢	$9,242	0x6ca8b5…
06-01 14:17:20	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	729	82¢	$597	0xb08921…
06-01 14:16:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	194	82¢	$159	0x8e55b4…
06-01 14:16:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	1,342	82¢	$1,101	0x29a901…
06-01 14:16:08	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	4,000	82¢	$3,274	0x328185…
06-01 14:15:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	8,637	81¢	$6,996	0xe60e25…
06-01 14:15:39	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	BUY	627	81¢	$508	0x27bcb5…
06-01 14:11:58	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	BUY	1,888	88¢	$1,661	0x49e0d8…
06-01 14:11:39	Kash Patel out by June 30?	No	BUY	1,844	87¢	$1,602	0x0ac68e…
06-01 14:08:07	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?	No	BUY	2,847	92¢	$2,619	0x6e6f5b…
05-30 03:58:14	US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	No	BUY	16,900	94¢	$15,836	0xce6b37…
05-30 03:56:59	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by May 31?	No	SELL	16,000	99¢	$15,841	0xf93937…
05-27 23:17:02	Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	BUY	1,489	93¢	$1,385	0xafe35b…
05-27 23:15:59	Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	10,142	83¢	$8,418	0x691bf6…
05-27 23:15:14	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	17,466	99¢	$17,249	0x47b68a…
05-27 18:04:33	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	2,165	98¢	$2,133	0x7b1101…
05-27 18:04:12	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	7,363	99¢	$7,267	0x03f193…
05-27 15:34:29	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	25,000	99¢	$24,627	0xac2927…
05-27 03:06:55	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	SELL	4,634	100¢	$4,611	0xebee4c…
05-26 04:54:57	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	13,428	99¢	$13,253	0xfddc4f…
05-26 04:54:25	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	SELL	30,000	99¢	$29,610	0x8e6820…
05-25 17:19:56	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	10,000	88¢	$8,800	0x06b24c…
05-25 14:13:42	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	17,999	82¢	$14,759	0x0c5b87…
05-25 12:40:15	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	187	82¢	$153	0x5f5f33…
05-25 12:24:30	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	37	82¢	$30	0x1bbbd1…
05-25 12:24:18	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	25	82¢	$20	0xbe7f8c…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71	42	$776.0K	11,166	06-10 04:52
Arctic-Kickoff 0xa667…ceb3	42	$143.4K	692	06-08 23:32
Hideous-Racer 0xc8ab…6418	38	$19.9M	21,187	06-10 05:29
Tough-Mask 0xad52…11ac	36	$149.4K	1,360	06-10 01:10
Trained-Villa 0x0bfb…26a7	36	$94.1K	671	06-09 20:13
Faraway-Seaside 0xf0b0…8cab	35	$178.9K	14,734	06-01 04:50
Natural-Vacation 0xa8c6…44e8	34	$1.76M	5,350	06-10 00:29
Small-Pompom 0x9d73…216b	34	$605.7K	1,477	06-10 05:22