Prime-Basis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$788

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

98.6%

Resolved

Trades

5,779

lifetime

Volume

$2.28M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$395

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 07-19 13:41

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 3 days

Categories

Politics

89% 0% $-33

Other

10% 100% +$778

Crypto

1% 100% +$44

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

57 active days in 12wk • peak 172 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will us or israel strike iran on march 10 2026	64	$132.9K	85,479	53,351	+32,128	open	—	03-10 10:34
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	27	$95.3K	84,194	35,915	+48,278	open	—	04-08 01:09
us x iran ceasefire by april 10	27	$94.7K	47,847	47,847	+0	open	—	04-08 01:08
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	39	$83.2K	72,657	60,434	+12,223	open	—	02-28 07:33
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	62	$65.0K	39,765	38,978	+786	open	—	04-07 23:28
will us or israel strike iran on march 1 2026	3	$60.9K	30,915	30,915	+0	open	—	03-01 09:13
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	35	$56.6K	38,470	29,858	+8,611	open	—	02-28 07:32
will us or israel strike iran on march 9 2026	25	$53.0K	26,614	26,614	+0	open	—	03-09 09:15
netanyahu out by march 31 854	36	$49.6K	25,312	25,312	+0	open	—	03-31 01:14
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	30	$43.4K	24,351	24,351	+0	open	—	03-27 16:57
Trump out as President by April 30?	33	$40.3K	20,344	20,344	+0	open	—	04-24 06:06
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	3	$39.9K	20,065	20,065	+0	open	—	03-05 09:49
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	6	$39.3K	20,141	20,141	+0	open	—	05-24 10:37
israel strikes iran by january 16 2026 418	73	$36.0K	24,977	25,650	-673	open	—	01-14 23:09
will us or israel strike iran on march 8 2026	10	$34.0K	17,024	17,024	+0	open	—	03-08 18:46
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	43	$31.9K	16,422	16,442	-20	open	—	06-23 19:05
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by march 31	55	$30.0K	15,142	15,142	+0	open	—	03-03 16:43
Netanyahu out by April 30?	4	$29.5K	15,000	15,000	+0	open	—	04-04 17:49
will us or israel strike iran on march 5 2026	4	$28.5K	14,278	14,278	+0	open	—	03-05 06:47
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	11	$28.3K	5,398	24,136	-18,738	open	—	06-16 11:27
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	6	$28.2K	14,182	14,182	+0	open	—	05-25 18:03
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026?	56	$27.8K	26,233	19,985	+6,248	open	—	02-28 07:36
houthi strike on israel by march 6 2026	21	$26.4K	13,226	13,226	+0	open	—	03-09 06:25
israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026	43	$26.0K	17,000	17,000	+0	open	—	04-15 13:49
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?	55	$25.4K	12,742	12,779	-37	open	—	05-19 06:20
Military action against Iran ends by April 30, 2026?	15	$25.4K	14,812	10,798	+4,014	open	—	04-12 20:42
will israel strike lebanon on january 21 2026	60	$23.8K	18,157	6,907	+11,250	open	—	01-21 09:24
will israel strike lebanon on january 25 2026	115	$23.5K	13,624	13,602	+22	open	—	01-25 11:50
Military action against Iran ends by April 9, 2026?	117	$23.1K	12,123	12,123	+0	open	—	04-10 06:43
israel closes its airspace by june 8	25	$22.4K	19,271	8,294	+10,978	open	—	06-08 22:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 13:41:25	andrew tate extradited to uk by sep 30 20260719022813213	Yes	SELL	257	16¢	$41	0xe23845…
07-19 13:41:06	andrew tate extradited to uk by sep 30 20260719022813213	Yes	SELL	312	17¢	$53	0x42ed9e…
07-19 13:28:24	andrew tate extradited to uk by sep 30 20260719022813213	Yes	BUY	569	22¢	$125	0x7704a4…
07-14 07:23:35	will jonathan hofeller be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212486	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xd7bfb7…
07-13 16:25:16	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	SELL	652	21¢	$139	0x8b0dc4…
07-13 16:24:01	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521 644 479	Yes	SELL	481	23¢	$111	0xe8d0c3…
07-13 16:23:38	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	2,206	32¢	$706	0xbed47e…
07-13 15:47:32	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	572	38¢	$217	0x723fcf…
07-13 15:44:25	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586 829 787	Yes	SELL	164	38¢	$62	0x2ad395…
07-13 15:04:20	will jonathan hofeller be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212486	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x456c1e…
07-13 12:06:35	will trump say graham or platner this week 20260710153927791	Yes	SELL	28	94¢	$26	0x2d9ad0…
07-13 12:04:40	will microstrategy announce selling any bitcoin july 7 13	Yes	BUY	300	2¢	$6	0x5fb13c…
07-13 12:02:38	will microstrategy announce selling any bitcoin july 7 13	Yes	BUY	300	3¢	$9	0xafdcb2…
07-12 15:31:58	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	233	99¢	$231	0x24cb6e…
07-12 13:53:02	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	5,000	99¢	$4,960	0x24c44b…
07-12 13:52:22	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	5,000	99¢	$4,960	0x47c412…
07-12 10:24:49	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	38	99¢	$38	0x56cfb1…
07-12 09:59:59	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	27	99¢	$27	0x1ecf29…
07-12 09:34:17	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x8e6aa2…
07-12 08:59:47	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0xf0864c…
07-12 08:47:02	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	SELL	948	99¢	$940	0xc92f30…
07-12 06:16:59	will trump say graham or platner this week 20260710153927791	Yes	BUY	28	85¢	$24	0xd191e2…
07-09 01:37:23	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	SELL	435	100¢	$435	0x4900aa…
07-09 01:36:35	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	SELL	100	100¢	$100	0x892fb1…
07-09 01:34:28	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x9c28f6…
07-09 01:33:13	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x3bcb68…
07-09 01:33:10	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	SELL	465	100¢	$464	0x898a28…
07-08 08:58:16	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	37	21¢	$8	0xb57df5…
07-08 08:50:28	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	Yes	SELL	14	33¢	$5	0xc9c352…
07-08 08:41:22	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	SELL	963	26¢	$250	0x3217bf…
07-08 08:36:37	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	431	25¢	$108	0xf519dd…
07-08 08:36:34	will the us announce a blockade on iran by july 31 20260622191116912	Yes	BUY	569	25¢	$142	0xd10554…
07-08 08:31:43	iran leadership change by july 31 20260629143932628	Yes	BUY	977	5¢	$50	0x0561ec…
07-08 08:26:47	will the us announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622192122521	Yes	BUY	1,148	44¢	$500	0x09d6e2…
07-08 08:21:44	will iran announce withdrawal from mou negotiations by july 31 20260622191733846 586	Yes	BUY	2,941	17¢	$500	0x28489d…
07-08 07:22:40	Will Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,030	97¢	$1,000	0x4af565…
07-07 07:43:37	macron out by july 31 2026 20260626155530286	Yes	SELL	97	1¢	$1	0x92ffaf…
07-07 07:39:13	macron out by july 31 2026 20260626155530286	Yes	SELL	442	2¢	$9	0x31264a…
07-07 07:36:04	macron out by july 31 2026 20260626155530286	Yes	BUY	268	2¢	$6	0x241009…
07-07 07:34:26	macron out by july 31 2026 20260626155530286	Yes	BUY	271	2¢	$5	0x2d71ea…
07-06 09:38:32	Sudan civil war ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	51	100¢	$51	0x8813d3…
07-05 02:34:32	will jonathan hofeller be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212486	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x7b2ecd…
07-05 02:22:53	will jonathan hofeller be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212486	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xd5498f…
07-05 02:22:50	will jonathan hofeller be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212486	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x4c4f79…
07-04 22:50:14	will antonio gracias be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212487	No	SELL	195	100¢	$195	0x25edd2…
07-04 02:22:59	will jonathan hofeller be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212486	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x98bcb1…
07-02 09:24:08	will antonio gracias be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212487	No	BUY	200	100¢	$200	0x9e68cc…
07-02 09:21:37	israeli forces enter beirut by june 30	No	BUY	137	100¢	$137	0x380a3a…
07-01 18:32:01	meta close above 580 on july 1 2026	No	BUY	7,000	0¢	$14	0x6b7038…
07-01 18:31:50	meta close above 580 on july 1 2026	No	BUY	290	0¢	$1	0x629f29…
07-01 17:20:22	meta close above 580 on july 1 2026	No	BUY	2,710	0¢	$11	0xf0dda9…
07-01 14:08:11	meta close above 580 on july 1 2026	No	SELL	20	1¢	$0	0x56f0af…
07-01 14:04:46	meta close above 580 on july 1 2026	No	BUY	1,000	2¢	$17	0x599ee2…
07-01 13:35:49	meta close above 580 on july 1 2026	No	BUY	2,000	7¢	$136	0xd35e57…
06-29 23:31:49	will jonathan hofeller be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212486	No	SELL	527	100¢	$526	0x71e9df…
06-29 13:30:41	will antonio gracias be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212487	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0x72629a…
06-28 05:18:13	will antonio gracias be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212487	No	BUY	337	98¢	$331	0x7325e5…
06-24 14:17:20	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	356	93¢	$331	0x139c12…
06-24 12:46:05	israeli forces enter beirut by june 30	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x105eed…
06-24 08:44:46	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	Yes	SELL	10	7¢	$1	0xa1bb19…
06-24 06:50:35	will jonathan hofeller be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212486	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xec28b5…
06-23 19:05:56	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	306	99¢	$304	0xc9e8cd…
06-23 17:25:17	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2,033	99¢	$2,019	0x3ee377…
06-23 17:09:40	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$199	0x9e3da5…
06-23 17:09:17	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	36	99¢	$36	0x3ef839…
06-23 15:33:38	will antonio gracias be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212487	No	SELL	72	100¢	$72	0x89b56b…
06-23 15:33:29	will jonathan hofeller be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212486	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xde1c3f…
06-23 14:41:29	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	116	99¢	$115	0xad6345…
06-23 14:40:46	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	3,795	99¢	$3,768	0x483794…
06-23 13:25:02	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2,513	99¢	$2,496	0xc8b9ea…
06-23 10:37:38	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	614	99¢	$609	0xc502c6…
06-23 10:26:07	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xd9f0a2…
06-23 09:07:19	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	Yes	SELL	60	5¢	$3	0x9619a4…
06-23 09:07:05	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	Yes	SELL	19	6¢	$1	0xf2f635…
06-23 09:06:16	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	Yes	SELL	496	6¢	$30	0x6c1b7d…
06-23 09:05:02	will jonathan hofeller be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212486	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xa0f3bd…
06-23 09:03:05	will jonathan hofeller be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212486	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0xc83fc6…
06-23 09:01:37	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	Yes	BUY	100	10¢	$10	0x9167b5…
06-23 08:59:17	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	Yes	SELL	32	17¢	$5	0x2543eb…
06-23 08:59:16	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	Yes	BUY	668	11¢	$72	0x8ccf79…
06-23 08:57:59	israeli forces enter nabatieh by june 30	Yes	BUY	1,013	7¢	$70	0x5319b8…
06-23 08:29:13	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	526	99¢	$522	0xe19511…
06-23 07:57:50	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	808	92¢	$744	0x9634d3…
06-23 07:45:32	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x35bca3…
06-23 07:44:16	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	23	92¢	$22	0x38fd32…
06-23 07:44:14	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	29	92¢	$26	0x96474f…
06-23 07:41:28	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	23	92¢	$22	0xd3540e…
06-23 07:41:26	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	4	92¢	$3	0x3ec202…
06-23 07:00:41	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1,433	92¢	$1,318	0x135498…
06-23 05:30:14	will jonathan hofeller be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212486	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x50d2e4…
06-23 05:28:19	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	150	99¢	$148	0x7fb255…
06-23 05:11:52	will jonathan hofeller be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212486	No	SELL	40	100¢	$40	0xcb493c…
06-23 05:11:46	will antonio gracias be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212487	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x3417c8…
06-22 19:27:07	will antonio gracias be on stage at a bell ceremony commemorating spacexs ipo 20260608220212487	No	SELL	99	100¢	$99	0x70a75f…
06-22 12:55:40	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x8f9b67…
06-22 12:24:56	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	833	88¢	$733	0x440314…
06-22 11:57:38	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x30588c…
06-22 11:49:29	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x032a30…
06-22 11:49:16	israel withdraws from lebanon by july 31 2026	No	BUY	28	88¢	$25	0xa37d5a…
06-22 11:24:31	Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	49	99¢	$49	0x377f59…