Prime-Basis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$80.6K

Unrealized P&L

+$4.05K

Hit rate

82.6%

Resolved

500

Trades

7,417

lifetime

Volume

$3.21M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$433

Open exposure

$45.8K

7 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-27 05:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 179 days

Categories

Politics

87% 70% +$83,235

Other

12% 53% -$2,526

Crypto

1% 43% -$63

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

40 active days in 12wk • peak 64 trades/day

Open positions (7) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	+29,584	$25,565	94¢	$27.7K	+$2,096	10-25 09:26
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	+11,615	$10,684	98¢	$11.4K	+$699	10-27 04:44
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	+4,190	$3,502	99¢	$4.2K	+$665	10-27 05:36
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	+2,547	$1,451	100¢	$2.5K	+$1,084	10-26 19:42
Iran leadership change by October 31?	Yes	+8,100	$150	1¢	$53	-$97	10-11 15:55
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	+2,547	$5	1¢	$25	+$20	10-26 07:01
Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	No	+4,190	$437	1¢	$23	-$414	10-19 07:18

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will us or israel strike iran on march 10 2026	64	$132.9K	85,479	53,351	+32,128	Yes	-$751	03-10 10:34
us x iran ceasefire by april 15	27	$95.3K	84,194	35,915	+48,278	Yes	+$19,586	04-08 01:09
us x iran ceasefire by april 10	27	$94.7K	47,847	47,847	+0	Yes	+$885	04-08 01:08
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	39	$83.2K	72,657	60,434	+12,223	Yes	+$8,818	02-28 07:33
us x iran ceasefire by april 7	62	$65.0K	39,765	38,978	+786	Yes	+$9,076	04-07 23:28
will us or israel strike iran on march 1 2026	3	$60.9K	30,915	30,915	+0	Yes	+$886	03-01 09:13
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	35	$56.6K	38,470	29,858	+8,611	Yes	+$8,588	02-28 07:32
will us or israel strike iran on march 9 2026	25	$53.0K	26,614	26,614	+0	Yes	+$93	03-09 09:15
netanyahu out by march 31 854	36	$49.6K	25,312	25,312	+0	No	+$835	03-31 01:14
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	24	$48.7K	32,981	16,216	+16,765	Yes	+$235	10-22 19:43
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 1	48	$48.6K	25,005	25,005	+0	Yes	+$1,283	08-02 04:25
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 30	33	$46.1K	23,367	23,367	+0	Yes	+$566	07-31 13:17
us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129	17	$45.4K	24,136	24,136	+0	Yes	+$1,362	06-16 11:27
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	30	$43.4K	24,351	24,351	+0	No	+$283	03-27 16:57
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	20	$43.3K	22,222	22,222	+0	Yes	+$1,119	10-18 20:35
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 15?	29	$42.8K	22,607	21,473	+1,134	Yes	+$625	10-15 20:31
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	12	$42.6K	21,434	21,434	+0	Yes	+$180	07-31 22:07
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 24	17	$41.9K	21,289	21,289	+0	Yes	+$570	07-25 16:06
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 12?	10	$40.9K	20,563	20,563	+0	Yes	+$87	10-12 21:21
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	4	$40.6K	20,502	20,502	+0	Yes	+$324	07-25 23:05
Trump out as President by April 30?	33	$40.3K	20,344	20,344	+0	No	+$261	04-24 06:06
us x iran ceasefire by march 6	3	$39.9K	20,065	20,065	+0	No	-$19	03-05 09:49
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 26	10	$39.9K	20,106	20,106	+0	Yes	+$239	07-27 09:42
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	6	$39.3K	20,141	20,141	+0	Yes	-$194	05-24 10:37
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 29	17	$38.0K	19,221	19,221	+0	Yes	+$355	07-30 12:32
israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 23	16	$37.9K	19,226	19,226	+0	Yes	+$376	07-24 14:36
israel strikes iran by january 16 2026 418	73	$36.0K	24,977	25,650	-673	No	+$1,762	01-14 23:09
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	35	$35.4K	22,254	17,160	+5,094	open	—	10-26 19:42
will us or israel strike iran on march 8 2026	10	$34.0K	17,024	17,024	+0	Yes	+$25	03-08 18:46
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	44	$31.9K	16,442	16,442	+0	No	+$746	06-23 19:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 05:36:21	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	4,000	100¢	$3,996	0x725299…
10-27 04:44:47	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	882	98¢	$869	0x878296…
10-26 19:42:11	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	314	100¢	$313	0x10197c…
10-26 19:33:03	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	4,000	98¢	$3,920	0xd5971c…
10-26 15:29:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	935	100¢	$934	0x4d94f2…
10-26 12:56:33	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	501	100¢	$501	0xaca892…
10-26 09:12:05	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x1772c3…
10-26 09:04:29	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xeaf058…
10-26 08:58:44	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x0d9b91…
10-26 08:22:44	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	1,000	96¢	$961	0xcdfa46…
10-26 07:10:09	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	SELL	500	98¢	$490	0xe18f6f…
10-26 07:02:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	17	96¢	$16	0x34a88c…
10-26 07:01:09	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	10	0¢	$0	0x99b718…
10-26 07:00:47	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0x20e249…
10-26 06:52:56	Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	40¢	$13	0x605eeb…
10-26 06:52:47	Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x931026…
10-26 06:52:06	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	Yes	BUY	77	96¢	$74	0xf83c91…
10-26 06:51:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	1,884	0¢	$4	0xce7d87…
10-26 06:51:23	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	No	BUY	645	0¢	$1	0x75611d…
10-25 22:00:44	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	370	89¢	$329	0x362b64…
10-25 21:59:14	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	136	89¢	$121	0x89be2f…
10-25 20:03:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	173	89¢	$154	0xe427c7…
10-25 19:47:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	12	92¢	$12	0x9aeaac…
10-25 19:45:35	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	60	92¢	$55	0xc33208…
10-25 19:34:41	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	1,682	99¢	$1,671	0xaa247c…
10-25 13:23:17	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	59	92¢	$54	0xdb8f0c…
10-25 13:12:50	Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by October 31?	Yes	SELL	139	39¢	$54	0x747692…
10-25 11:40:00	Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by October 31?	Yes	BUY	9	40¢	$3	0x83a315…
10-25 11:37:45	Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by October 31?	Yes	BUY	98	39¢	$38	0xaab0eb…
10-25 11:37:30	Will a 7.5+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	Yes	SELL	42	100¢	$42	0x4d4681…
10-25 11:36:56	Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by October 31?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xf59a0c…
10-25 11:36:56	Military action against King Khalid International Airport (RUH) by October 31?	Yes	BUY	12	35¢	$4	0x02f62d…
10-25 11:24:05	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	300	92¢	$276	0x34029c…
10-25 11:22:02	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	174	100¢	$173	0x575f03…
10-25 11:21:51	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	48	100¢	$48	0x038a0b…
10-25 11:17:12	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	1,214	92¢	$1,116	0x28de37…
10-25 11:15:06	Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	41	92¢	$38	0x8a9a15…
10-25 11:12:29	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	2,236	99¢	$2,220	0x0a65e4…
10-25 11:04:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	1,080	92¢	$994	0xfe9a43…
10-25 10:59:18	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	1,000	99¢	$994	0xf3b935…
10-25 09:26:17	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	652	86¢	$561	0x7a322e…
10-25 08:33:36	Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xc98319…
10-25 08:33:27	Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0xd6d046…
10-25 08:32:17	Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0x9ab243…
10-25 07:55:24	Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	72¢	$14	0x622d49…
10-25 07:53:00	Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x05c160…
10-25 07:52:41	Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	58	76¢	$44	0x6c915d…
10-25 03:28:26	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	111	92¢	$102	0x1716ce…
10-25 03:27:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	1,200	93¢	$1,116	0x45ead8…
10-25 03:27:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	2,406	100¢	$2,401	0x857e14…
10-25 02:28:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xed84e2…
10-25 02:24:56	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	SELL	108	100¢	$107	0x421225…
10-25 00:27:03	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	34	100¢	$33	0x0b64e5…
10-24 19:22:21	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	111	100¢	$111	0xb6b44d…
10-24 19:22:18	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	155	99¢	$153	0x34c65e…
10-24 19:22:17	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0xf64ff3…
10-24 19:22:17	Will there be ≤6 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	14	100¢	$14	0x7f4d43…
10-24 19:11:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	1,254	87¢	$1,091	0x0af8af…
10-24 18:32:35	Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	92¢	$18	0x9dbf75…
10-24 18:22:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	154	100¢	$153	0x4cb93b…
10-24 18:15:54	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	50	100¢	$50	0x8fd97d…
10-24 18:15:48	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x1c2998…
10-24 18:15:44	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	1,339	100¢	$1,335	0x025471…
10-24 15:40:29	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	1,000	90¢	$900	0xb1f273…
10-24 15:17:35	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	722	91¢	$657	0x914ab8…
10-24 15:09:59	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x98db3e…
10-24 15:07:47	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	256	97¢	$249	0xa870e0…
10-24 14:58:32	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	772	91¢	$703	0xd4cff6…
10-24 14:45:56	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	3,000	92¢	$2,760	0xef2ce7…
10-24 14:45:33	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	SELL	6,501	98¢	$6,379	0x9a520c…
10-24 05:06:12	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	60	99¢	$60	0x92b9dc…
10-24 04:13:09	Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xa2c979…
10-24 04:12:14	Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	90¢	$18	0x6bf2cb…
10-24 04:10:12	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	SELL	360	90¢	$324	0xe86c0a…
10-23 20:01:47	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	235	83¢	$195	0x94df64…
10-23 19:26:03	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	17	87¢	$15	0x9524f6…
10-23 19:22:56	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	290	87¢	$252	0x84041a…
10-23 19:22:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	86¢	$9	0x830b2b…
10-23 19:08:42	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	1,000	93¢	$930	0x01324e…
10-23 19:06:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x523597…
10-23 19:06:44	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x7a7cbb…
10-23 19:06:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x52a70b…
10-23 19:06:29	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x471615…
10-23 19:03:53	Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0xe5c893…
10-23 19:03:20	Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	68	86¢	$58	0x1a4193…
10-23 19:02:14	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	1,393	94¢	$1,310	0xf42c06…
10-23 19:02:06	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 27?	Yes	BUY	8	87¢	$7	0xdffa4c…
10-23 19:01:59	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Yes	BUY	420	83¢	$349	0xe6f10b…
10-23 19:01:50	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	6	93¢	$6	0x6e041d…
10-23 19:01:20	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	150	93¢	$140	0xe24a1f…
10-23 15:07:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	5,263	95¢	$5,000	0xafc1d0…
10-23 12:26:45	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	69	94¢	$65	0x0669bf…
10-22 20:37:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	481	93¢	$447	0x7b6c81…
10-22 20:35:47	Israel military action against Iraq by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	30	96¢	$29	0xdc45c2…
10-22 20:34:02	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	Yes	SELL	3,000	98¢	$2,951	0x55d3b5…
10-22 19:45:26	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	4,202	93¢	$3,908	0x5e41f3…
10-22 19:43:44	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	SELL	5,000	100¢	$4,995	0x850b83…
10-22 18:48:21	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	1,150	93¢	$1,070	0xc84686…
10-22 18:18:57	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	Yes	BUY	4,000	93¢	$3,720	0x5720b3…
10-22 18:18:41	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?	Yes	SELL	4,167	99¢	$4,125	0x211aa6…