Prime-Basis — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$82

Unrealized P&L

+$122

Hit rate

65.6%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

21 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$12.2K

$12.2K lifetime

Avg / trade

$583

Open exposure

$4.31K

3 positions

First seen

2026-05-06

last 05-16 11:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Other

75% 100% +$90

Crypto

21% 0% $-8

Politics

4% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

7 active days in 12wk • peak 8 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (5) Recent trades Correlated wallets (6)

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	No	+4,239	$4,108	100¢	$4.2K	+$126	05-15 11:56
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	-233	$-43	22¢	$-52	$-9	05-12 08:32
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	No	+20	$15	100¢	$20	+$5	05-16 11:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	8	$4.2K	4,278	39	+4,239	open	—	05-15 11:56
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	1	$2.8K	2,889	0	+2,889	Yes	+$83	05-12 06:36
Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 5M ETH before 2027?	2	$2.6K	0	2,585	-2,585	Yes	$-8	05-11 10:12
Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	1	$1.6K	1,654	0	+1,654	No	+$7	05-06 15:43
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	1	$456	464	0	+464	open	—	05-15 12:06
Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	1	$272	272	0	+272	No	+$0	05-07 07:19
Will annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April?	1	$195	195	0	+195	No	+$0	05-12 12:32
Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	1	$43	0	233	-233	open	—	05-12 08:32
Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?	1	$32	460	0	+460	open	—	05-14 10:23
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	1	$15	20	0	+20	open	—	05-16 11:15
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?	2	$8	262	6	+256	open	—	05-14 18:14
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	1	$4	0	39	-39	open	—	05-06 09:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
05-16 11:15:44	Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xe90c54…
05-15 12:06:52	Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	BUY	464	98¢	$456	0x1a1b83…
05-15 11:56:19	Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	No	BUY	1,962	100¢	$1,952	0x7998e4…
05-15 03:23:18	Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	No	SELL	39	90¢	$35	0x8db9f3…
05-14 18:14:16	Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	6	6¢	$0	0xb84cd4…
05-14 15:24:31	Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	262	3¢	$7	0x4b3d94…
05-14 13:56:07	Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	No	BUY	2,028	95¢	$1,927	0xdbebb7…
05-14 12:54:18	Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	No	BUY	147	92¢	$135	0xaf4c80…
05-14 11:30:06	Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	No	BUY	8	81¢	$7	0xbd9d7c…
05-14 11:29:59	Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0x7fea36…
05-14 10:34:24	Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	No	BUY	25	91¢	$22	0x6a304b…
05-14 10:23:57	Will Cerebras' market cap be less than $50B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	460	7¢	$32	0x3685ac…
05-12 19:26:08	Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 11 - 17?	No	BUY	95	95¢	$90	0x7fac3a…
05-12 12:32:41	Will annual inflation increase by 3.5% in April?	No	BUY	195	100¢	$195	0x96a4d9…
05-12 08:32:32	Internet Access restored in Iran by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	233	18¢	$43	0x4a615e…
05-12 06:36:20	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	2,889	97¢	$2,807	0xf4f7e7…
05-11 10:12:37	Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 5M ETH before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,070	100¢	$1,067	0x063301…
05-07 08:18:57	Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 5M ETH before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1,515	100¢	$1,511	0x9ba007…
05-07 07:19:08	Will there be 3 or fewer earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	No	BUY	272	100¢	$272	0x78fb21…
05-06 15:43:02	Will there be exactly 6 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from May 4 - 10?	No	BUY	1,654	100¢	$1,647	0x63c9e3…
05-06 09:15:06	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	39	10¢	$4	0xd980ea…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
(anonymous) 0xe907…cff6	4	$1.11K	6	05-15 17:52
Weird-Freedom 0xeca0…e8f8	3	$3.25K	6	05-13 20:12
Peppery-Capital 0x7c3d…5c6b	3	$2.94K	6	05-14 21:52
Different-Windshield 0xb220…5f71	3	$1.69K	12	05-16 16:49
Wilted-Burden-Survivor 0xd8d5…8935	3	$1.46K	3	05-11 07:10
Delicious-Hackwork 0xd67b…5780	3	$966	7	05-08 23:56