Muffled-Vestment — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$5

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

10.5%

Resolved

Trades

129

lifetime

Volume

$269

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-10

last 06-09 00:14

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 4 days

Categories

Crypto

69% 0% $-1

Other

17% 0% $-4

Sports

7% 0% $-4

Politics

6% 100% +$13

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

28 active days in 12wk • peak 24 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets (8)

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?	Yes		-56	$-1	1¢	$-0	+$0	05-30 17:16

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	2	$43	100	100	+0	open	—	05-27 12:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	2	$15	52	52	+0	open	—	05-25 15:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	3	$14	34	16	+18	open	—	05-28 01:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	3	$13	31	14	+17	open	—	05-28 03:13
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	2	$6	13	13	+0	open	—	05-28 00:07
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	2	$6	114	0	+114	open	—	05-28 02:23
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	3	$6	54	25	+29	open	—	05-23 15:38
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	2	$6	21	21	+0	open	—	02-07 03:50
will bitcoin outperform silver in march 2026	2	$5	5	5	+0	open	—	03-27 01:02
btc updown 5m 1776207900	1	$5	17	0	+17	open	—	04-14 23:09
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	2	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	05-26 12:19
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by March 31, 2026?	2	$4	51	51	+0	open	—	02-02 05:20
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	2	$4	3	3	+0	open	—	05-26 11:59
Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	1	$4	508	0	+508	No	$-4	05-03 13:28
Thunder vs. Lakers	2	$4	22	0	+22	Thunder	$-4	05-12 01:42
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	2	$3	7	7	+0	open	—	05-30 17:40
will michigan win the 2026 ncaa tournament	1	$3	9	0	+9	open	—	04-02 01:49
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	1	$3	43	0	+43	open	—	05-13 12:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	1	$3	43	0	+43	open	—	05-27 12:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	1	$3	8	0	+8	open	—	05-28 00:34
Cavaliers vs. Knicks	2	$3	17	0	+17	open	—	05-22 01:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	2	$3	40	0	+40	open	—	05-28 01:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	2	$3	14	14	+0	open	—	05-28 02:59
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	3	$3	51	20	+30	open	—	05-25 12:51
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	2	$3	60	0	+60	open	—	05-27 01:22
bitcoin above 84k on january 14	1	$2	2,000	0	+2,000	open	—	01-14 04:37
fed decreases interest rates by 50 bps after january 2026 meeting	1	$2	500	0	+500	open	—	01-10 13:21
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	1	$2	50	0	+50	open	—	05-15 12:42
will israel nuke iran by january 31	1	$2	265	0	+265	open	—	01-12 12:36
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	1	$2	10	0	+10	open	—	05-28 05:58

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-09 00:14:03	sol updown 15m 1780963200	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x3a3954…
06-09 00:11:37	eth updown 15m 1780963200	Up	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x9914f1…
06-09 00:09:24	ufc max1 con 2026 07 11	Conor McGregor	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0xfcf07d…
06-09 00:08:37	ufc mic12 mau4 2026 06 14	Michael Chandler	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x290b4d…
06-09 00:08:09	ufc der jos52 2026 06 14	Derrick Lewis	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x908f77…
06-09 00:04:15	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08	Spurs	BUY	2	47¢	$1	0xfa017c…
06-06 11:05:16	ufc der jos52 2026 06 14	Derrick Lewis	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x08e072…
06-06 11:03:30	ufc jus3 ili1 2026 06 14	Justin Gaethje	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xf7abfa…
06-03 04:25:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x6dd144…
06-03 01:04:27	Anthropic vs Meta — higher valuation on June 30?	Anthropic	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0xc72778…
06-01 22:19:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x6f34c0…
06-01 22:18:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0xc6a784…
05-31 12:58:20	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xb671a4…
05-31 12:54:33	Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x84c9ed…
05-31 02:57:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x742bb4…
05-31 02:56:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xbc3a2e…
05-31 02:43:44	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET	Down	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x865617…
05-30 17:40:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	SELL	7	35¢	$2	0x4ca485…
05-30 17:33:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET	Up	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x00d76c…
05-30 17:18:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET	Down	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x70ca0f…
05-30 17:16:18	Will Trump pardon Tiger Woods by June 30?	Yes	SELL	56	1¢	$1	0x060a58…
05-30 03:32:59	Will SpaceX IPO by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1,000	0¢	$1	0xcd5583…
05-29 05:41:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x50b9c8…
05-29 04:23:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET	Down	BUY	11	19¢	$2	0x3a85c0…
05-29 04:03:49	UFC Fight Night: Song Yadong vs. Deiveson Figueiredo (Bantamweight, Main Card)	Deiveson Figueiredo	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xd0820a…
05-29 03:58:41	Solana Up or Down - May 28, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0xda38ec…
05-28 05:58:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x5005d7…
05-28 03:13:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Up	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x0349f7…
05-28 03:09:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	SELL	14	69¢	$10	0x5b378b…
05-28 03:08:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET	Down	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x1df04f…
05-28 02:59:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	SELL	14	14¢	$2	0x5fdebf…
05-28 02:56:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x349820…
05-28 02:23:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x53d136…
05-28 02:20:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET	Up	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x763e4e…
05-28 02:17:59	Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x1839f8…
05-28 02:05:44	Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by June 30?	Yes	SELL	40	3¢	$1	0xa51389…
05-28 02:05:23	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?	Yes	SELL	18	11¢	$2	0xb25ed7…
05-28 02:03:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET	Up	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xd383ae…
05-28 01:58:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x22a6a7…
05-28 01:49:05	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET	Down	BUY	7	29¢	$2	0xc5be86…
05-28 01:44:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Up	BUY	18	11¢	$2	0xdb3d03…
05-28 01:40:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	SELL	16	53¢	$8	0x14a05f…
05-28 01:38:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET	Down	BUY	16	25¢	$4	0x6068e3…
05-28 01:32:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Down	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x7f2311…
05-28 01:28:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x6d1fe0…
05-28 00:49:28	Solana Up or Down - May 27, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET	Down	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xb7b98f…
05-28 00:34:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	8	36¢	$3	0xfabe37…
05-28 00:24:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Down	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0x39b64e…
05-28 00:07:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	SELL	13	33¢	$4	0x1b3557…
05-28 00:05:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Down	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x458b4c…
05-27 23:42:07	Ethereum Up or Down - May 27, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x00e043…
05-27 23:39:18	Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x8b731c…
05-27 12:44:23	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0x4f134d…
05-27 12:24:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	SELL	100	42¢	$42	0x30a4e4…
05-27 12:23:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x47c7dd…
05-27 11:58:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x4a0679…
05-27 01:22:14	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa31030…
05-27 01:18:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	10	17¢	$2	0xdbcdde…
05-27 01:08:26	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	Yes	SELL	53	2¢	$1	0x962fb8…
05-27 00:54:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x4181fa…
05-27 00:48:17	Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by May 31?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x7070c9…
05-26 12:19:16	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	SELL	4	99¢	$4	0xc925b5…
05-26 12:16:21	Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x155a5f…
05-26 11:59:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	SELL	3	97¢	$3	0xc65242…
05-26 11:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET	Down	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xf2b907…
05-26 00:43:48	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x9c600c…
05-25 16:57:20	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET	Down	BUY	22	9¢	$2	0xd3b9aa…
05-25 15:42:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	SELL	52	24¢	$12	0x9c1f6a…
05-25 15:41:11	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET	Down	BUY	52	5¢	$3	0x125c91…
05-25 15:22:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x48e832…
05-25 12:51:22	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	30	3¢	$1	0xdadf43…
05-25 04:06:19	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xb7ee2a…
05-23 15:38:49	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Rico	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0xcffc0f…
05-22 02:45:16	Solana Up or Down - May 21, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x96a2f6…
05-22 02:38:19	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	SELL	20	5¢	$1	0x29b3ce…
05-22 02:33:39	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Rico	SELL	25	7¢	$2	0x64872f…
05-22 02:12:48	Solana Up or Down - May 21, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET	Up	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x5deb42…
05-22 01:43:03	Cavaliers vs. Knicks	Cavaliers	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0x8ff7a0…
05-22 01:03:04	Will Trump attend his son's wedding?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xa4fff5…
05-22 00:55:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	29	7¢	$2	0x4acf47…
05-22 00:44:19	Solana Up or Down - May 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xe7c6bd…
05-22 00:43:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0x95da42…
05-21 22:40:26	Cavaliers vs. Knicks	Cavaliers	BUY	6	36¢	$2	0x7c094f…
05-21 22:29:55	Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven	Rico	BUY	25	8¢	$2	0xda0ce9…
05-21 22:28:43	Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x8f30a2…
05-21 22:27:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xaad942…
05-21 03:11:58	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x653628…
05-19 12:14:49	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x01eec2…
05-18 01:31:09	Solana Up or Down - May 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET	Up	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xfa79fa…
05-15 12:42:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET	Up	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xb93c87…
05-13 23:08:50	Solana Up or Down - May 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET	Down	BUY	13	4¢	$1	0x258618…
05-13 12:44:40	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	43	7¢	$3	0x288521…
05-12 01:42:22	Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	17	18¢	$3	0xd68390…
05-12 01:09:21	Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0xf18688…
05-11 12:10:32	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x89b682…
05-08 04:36:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x189865…
05-03 13:28:56	Kevin Warsh Fed Chair nomination withdrawn by May 15?	Yes	BUY	508	1¢	$4	0x6ffc61…
05-03 13:26:06	James Comey charges dropped by May 31?	Yes	BUY	34	3¢	$1	0x0b87e1…
04-17 02:14:22	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	200	0¢	$1	0xa15612…
04-14 23:09:48	btc updown 5m 1776207900	Up	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0x7ae13f…

Wallet	Shared markets	Overlap volume	Overlap trades	Last seen
All-Peasant-Drug 0xe907…cff6	57	$50.0K	1,556	06-09 20:10
Monstrous-Dew 0x5b63…11a4	53	$139.2K	1,556	06-09 20:49
(anonymous) 0x76d4…c512	52	$16.5K	3,129	06-09 00:13
(anonymous) 0x20d2…e29d	48	$5.32K	481	06-09 00:11
(anonymous) 0x75cc…3ce1	46	$2.28K	492	06-09 00:13
(anonymous) 0x5d4a…55d3	44	$1.23K	240	06-09 00:12
Popular-Insurrection 0xeebd…ba30	42	$91.8K	6,746	06-09 00:13
(anonymous) 0x424e…263b	42	$13.1K	2,205	06-09 00:08