Primary-Civilian — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2.20K

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

84.6%

Resolved

264

Trades

509

lifetime

Volume

$176.3K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$346

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 11-07 05:51

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 118 days

Categories

Other

48% 90% +$2,443

Politics

23% 78% +$20

Sports

13% 76% -$573

Crypto

11% 75% +$224

Tech

5% 100% +$89

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

46 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$15.2K	7,616	7,616	+0	Yes	+$15	04-08 01:33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	2	$11.0K	11,049	0	+11,049	Yes	+$11	06-17 16:08
Umia listed on Binance within 30 days of TGE?	1	$9.1K	9,111	0	+9,111	No	+$11	10-03 04:10
will trump talk to xi jinping in march 165	12	$8.4K	8,077	506	+7,571	No	-$27	04-04 03:41
deepseek v4 released by april 24	5	$8.2K	8,429	225	+8,203	Yes	-$28	04-24 06:12
will backpack launch a token on march 23	3	$6.8K	4,510	2,252	+2,258	Yes	+$2	03-23 14:16
will bitget resume withdrawals by october 31 2026	1	$6.1K	6,110	0	+6,110	Yes	+$6	09-28 09:36
nba sas lal 2026 02 10	2	$6.1K	3,043	3,043	+0	Spurs	+$20	02-11 04:49
nba okc tor 2026 02 24	2	$6.0K	3,038	3,038	+0	Thunder	+$27	02-25 02:58
Aztec FDV above $800M one day after launch?	5	$6.0K	3,006	3,006	+0	No	$0	02-13 14:03
Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?	1	$5.6K	5,602	0	+5,602	No	+$8	10-13 04:00
Will Waymo launch in Miami by June 30 2026?	1	$3.5K	3,486	0	+3,486	Yes	+$6	04-16 15:42
will bitget resume withdrawals by september 30 2026	1	$3.1K	3,065	0	+3,065	Yes	+$3	09-28 09:36
Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 17, 2026?	1	$2.7K	2,768	0	+2,768	No	+$20	08-17 16:12
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP?	12	$2.7K	1,814	1,000	+814	Yes	+$21	05-17 08:15
Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?	2	$2.5K	2,554	0	+2,554	Yes	+$4	10-23 16:28
highest temperature in taipei on april 3 2026 24c	2	$2.4K	2,400	0	+2,400	No	+$2	04-03 06:55
Space FDV above $5M one day after launch?	1	$2.3K	2,372	0	+2,372	No	+$69	05-01 03:12
will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5pt5 or higher worldwide from april 13 april 19	1	$2.3K	2,299	0	+2,299	Yes	+$3	04-20 17:44
Will EdgeX launch a token by March 31, 2026?	7	$2.3K	2,306	0	+2,306	Yes	+$23	03-31 05:06
highest temperature in seoul on january 6 4c	2	$2.1K	1,066	1,066	+0	Yes	+$1	01-06 16:33
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	1	$2.1K	2,108	0	+2,108	No	+$3	10-23 03:24
nba mia cha 2026 04 14	6	$2.0K	1,100	1,100	+0	Hornets	+$29	04-15 02:24
will donk be said during the pgl bucharest 2026 grand final	4	$1.9K	1,000	1,000	+0	No	+$20	04-13 14:43
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 17, 2026?	1	$1.9K	2,021	0	+2,021	No	+$101	09-18 04:00
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?	1	$1.8K	1,850	0	+1,850	No	+$3	10-03 16:02
Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	5	$1.6K	1,003	1,003	+0	No	+$40	10-30 01:26
Will Hong Kong have 500mm or more of precipitation in June?	2	$1.6K	1,598	0	+1,598	Yes	+$2	07-02 02:39
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	3	$1.5K	758	758	+0	Yes	-$3	06-29 12:14
Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	1	$1.4K	1,379	0	+1,379	Yes	+$1	10-03 16:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-07 05:51:04	Trail Blazers vs. Lakers	Lakers	SELL	341	93¢	$318	0x9cedeb…
11-07 05:12:48	Trail Blazers vs. Lakers	Lakers	BUY	341	88¢	$300	0xcf2fc8…
11-07 03:56:42	Will Puffpaw launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	270	95¢	$256	0xe9ce72…
11-05 17:51:10	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	152	94¢	$143	0x9cdcb9…
11-05 17:14:57	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	192	90¢	$172	0xb216b7…
11-05 17:13:43	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 5, 2026?	No	BUY	225	89¢	$200	0x6992c0…
11-05 15:00:12	Will the US national average gas price be between $4.1000 and $4.1099 on November 5?	Yes	BUY	350	100¢	$349	0xcf4f23…
11-05 03:34:48	Will there be exactly 1 Codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of November 2?	Yes	BUY	19	25¢	$5	0x4c95fb…
11-05 03:09:30	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	141	100¢	$141	0xea7c6f…
11-05 03:08:06	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	350	100¢	$350	0x2f46bf…
11-05 03:07:39	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x3d284f…
11-05 03:07:28	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	140	100¢	$140	0x13e108…
11-04 16:03:07	Moonshot publishes Kimi K3.1 Pro weights by November 4?	Yes	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x79f763…
11-04 04:45:24	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on or prior to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	4	99¢	$4	0xab7903…
11-04 04:00:58	Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on or prior to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	42	99¢	$42	0x7d8904…
11-04 03:41:12	Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on or prior to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	20	99¢	$20	0xbbb0ae…
11-04 03:34:15	Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on or prior to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	51	97¢	$49	0x166db4…
11-03 14:59:45	Will the US national average gas price be between $4.1500 and $4.1599 on November 3?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x446ac9…
11-03 14:59:33	Will the US national average gas price be less than $4.1500 on November 3?	Yes	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x5a82fe…
11-03 14:59:24	Will US gas hit $4.16 (Low) the week of November 2?	Yes	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x9ae16a…
11-03 14:59:13	Will US gas hit $4.15 (Low) in November?	Yes	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x4cc683…
11-02 09:18:36	Will London have between 45-60mm of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xfd0239…
11-02 09:17:42	Will London have 110mm or more of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	96	100¢	$96	0xeb74c5…
11-02 09:17:28	Will London have between 85-110mm of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	431	100¢	$431	0xfe9b02…
11-02 09:17:15	Will London have between 45-60mm of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	162	100¢	$162	0xff7385…
11-02 09:13:37	Will London have between 70-85mm of precipitation in October?	Yes	BUY	53	100¢	$53	0x4480e5…
11-02 09:13:22	Will London have between 35-45mm of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	391	100¢	$391	0x5801f8…
11-02 09:13:10	Will London have less than 35mm of precipitation in October?	No	BUY	831	100¢	$830	0xa3b2ce…
11-01 10:47:51	Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?	No	SELL	631	99¢	$624	0x471753…
11-01 09:16:10	Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x39759c…
11-01 08:50:39	Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?	No	SELL	10	62¢	$6	0x6fb5f3…
11-01 08:09:34	Will Fred VanVleet play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27?	No	BUY	363	100¢	$363	0xadb92c…
11-01 08:06:58	Will Fred VanVleet play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27?	No	BUY	363	100¢	$362	0x54badf…
11-01 06:46:48	Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?	No	BUY	193	1¢	$2	0xa08f16…
11-01 06:45:24	Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?	No	BUY	300	1¢	$3	0xedec18…
11-01 06:43:51	Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?	No	BUY	6	0¢	$0	0xcc14c9…
11-01 06:43:51	Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?	No	BUY	7	0¢	$0	0x8196c9…
11-01 06:43:48	Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?	No	BUY	39	0¢	$0	0xe63f8a…
11-01 06:43:48	Will Zach LaVine play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27?	No	BUY	100	0¢	$0	0x3bed9c…
11-01 06:18:12	Will Fred VanVleet play for the Houston Rockets in 2026-27?	No	BUY	140	28¢	$39	0x9f5772…
10-31 07:05:00	Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 26?	No	BUY	19	93¢	$18	0x5eb0be…
10-31 06:34:43	Will there be exactly 2 Codex weekly usage limit resets in the week of October 26?	No	BUY	330	97¢	$320	0x6d1b82…
10-31 03:57:34	Will the NBA announce an expansion team in Las Vegas by October 30, 2026?	No	BUY	123	100¢	$123	0x803eba…
10-30 04:11:16	Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers	Trail Blazers	SELL	100	0¢	$0	0xf14c03…
10-30 04:09:34	Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers	Trail Blazers	BUY	97	1¢	$1	0x0cf18b…
10-30 04:09:33	Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers	Trail Blazers	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xe84e16…
10-30 01:26:45	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	122	94¢	$115	0xd880dd…
10-30 01:17:03	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	308	96¢	$295	0xae7288…
10-30 01:15:12	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	430	93¢	$400	0x16601f…
10-29 16:23:17	Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	77	20¢	$15	0xbd4938…
10-29 16:23:08	Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0x4496e8…
10-29 15:38:59	Will Elon Musk tweet "Hyperliquid" by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	82	18¢	$15	0xf72f0f…
10-29 13:59:35	Will the US national average gas price be less than $4.2300 on October 29?	Yes	BUY	180	100¢	$180	0x1c0930…
10-29 08:08:05	Will any other company have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	129	23¢	$30	0x35096a…
10-29 07:37:14	Will any other company have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	12¢	$5	0xee5f04…
10-29 07:13:53	Will any other company have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	93	21¢	$20	0xa602a6…
10-29 07:03:38	Will any other company have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	422	3¢	$11	0xb85cc9…
10-29 03:49:26	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xc7589b…
10-29 03:43:43	Will any other company have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x71d529…
10-29 03:31:01	Will any other company have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	90	21¢	$19	0xc64f57…
10-27 15:51:21	Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 25% or higher?	Yes	BUY	425	99¢	$421	0x2dc71f…
10-27 12:42:05	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	573	75¢	$430	0xfb5d17…
10-27 07:47:47	Will Predict.fun launch a token by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	573	70¢	$400	0x2efa3e…
10-26 07:05:05	will there be no codex weekly usage limit reset in the week of october 26	No	BUY	228	99¢	$226	0x83db05…
10-23 16:28:20	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	300	100¢	$300	0xbbbf5e…
10-23 16:17:53	Will the next Claude Haiku model (4.6+) debut at a score of at least 1400 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	2,254	100¢	$2,250	0x4286af…
10-23 03:24:47	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 22, 2026?	No	BUY	652	100¢	$651	0x6cb6d5…
10-23 03:24:21	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?	No	BUY	2,108	100¢	$2,105	0x776e86…
10-22 11:19:38	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 22, 2026?	No	BUY	581	90¢	$522	0x2b87e2…
10-20 16:43:48	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	57	88¢	$50	0x16fa89…
10-20 16:41:21	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	145	88¢	$128	0xaa6119…
10-16 16:09:06	Will Ted Cruz post 160-179 posts from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	458	100¢	$457	0xcbc7d8…
10-16 04:05:03	OpenAI resumes training by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	157	100¢	$157	0x8195bf…
10-14 16:02:25	Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x836173…
10-14 07:06:22	Will Gemini Argon debut with a Humanity's Last Exam score of 60% or higher?	No	BUY	733	97¢	$710	0x445347…
10-13 04:00:53	Gemini 4.0 released by October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	5,602	100¢	$5,594	0x79b065…
10-12 15:55:30	Will claude-opus-5.5-high be the best AI model on October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x092545…
10-12 15:55:00	Will claude-opus-5.5-high be the best AI model on October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	91	100¢	$91	0xdcd33d…
10-11 14:13:16	Will Bangkok's highest 24-hour rainfall on October 4-10 be between 50-100mm?	Yes	BUY	230	99¢	$227	0x3c58a5…
10-09 16:06:54	Will Mistral Large 4 debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	204	100¢	$204	0x459191…
10-09 15:00:45	will mistral large 4 debut at a score of at least 1430 by june 30 2027	No	BUY	347	96¢	$332	0xa81e10…
10-08 03:40:07	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	225	100¢	$225	0x2473e3…
10-07 03:51:50	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	224	100¢	$224	0xb94534…
10-05 18:29:56	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Up	SELL	106	100¢	$105	0x47eb36…
10-05 17:27:43	Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5?	Up	BUY	106	28¢	$30	0xaf7342…
10-05 03:32:25	Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 170T tokens the week of September 28?	Yes	BUY	106	100¢	$106	0x291c85…
10-05 03:32:08	Will OpenRouter process between 160T and 165T tokens the week of September 28?	No	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0xd9d5d4…
10-03 16:02:48	Will the next GPT Sol model (6.1+) debut at a score of at least 1440 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	BUY	1,379	100¢	$1,378	0x960783…
10-03 16:02:23	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1490 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	728	100¢	$727	0x2d4bb3…
10-03 16:02:12	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,850	100¢	$1,847	0x920862…
10-03 04:10:09	Umia listed on Binance within 30 days of TGE?	No	BUY	9,111	100¢	$9,100	0x151f8e…
10-03 03:53:08	Umia listed on Bybit within 30 days of TGE?	No	BUY	61	100¢	$61	0x050ed4…
10-02 10:31:35	Will NYC Mayor post 60-79 posts from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x9bca93…
10-01 15:48:24	Will OpenAI announce that it has resumed training on October 1, 2026?	No	BUY	61	88¢	$54	0x35e5e0…
10-01 06:24:12	Will Claude go down fewer than 5 times in September?	No	BUY	43	100¢	$43	0xd1b1d1…
09-30 16:22:26	Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	54	81¢	$44	0x3837de…
09-29 18:10:45	Will the biggest earthquake on September 28, 2026 be 6.1 or more?	No	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0xea1519…
09-29 16:11:05	Will Ted Cruz post 100-119 posts from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	44	100¢	$44	0xed6393…
09-28 09:36:23	will bitget resume withdrawals by september 30 2026	Yes	BUY	3,065	100¢	$3,062	0x8254fb…
09-28 09:36:08	will bitget resume withdrawals by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	6,110	100¢	$6,104	0x8bb6a6…