Orderly-Deer — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$14

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

77.6%

Resolved

277

Trades

351

lifetime

Volume

$3.21K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$14

2 positions

First seen

2026-02-03

last 07-27 20:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 86 days

Categories

Crypto

70% 99% +$13

Sports

19% 34% -$41

Politics

6% 67% +$16

Other

5% 64% -$1

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-27).

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No		+14	$11	90¢	$13	+$1	06-22 11:55
trump meets with putin by december 31	No		+8	$5	11¢	$1	-$4	06-19 21:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	14	$94	58	58	+0	Yes	$0	03-19 20:27
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?	10	$76	44	44	+0	No	$0	03-19 04:33
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	8	$66	35	35	+0	No	$0	03-19 08:13
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals?	8	$48	25	25	+0	No	$0	03-19 23:50
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?	6	$46	26	26	+0	No	$0	02-24 21:02
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?	4	$40	26	26	+0	No	$0	03-07 01:12
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?	4	$28	25	25	+0	Yes	$0	02-06 15:01
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	4	$26	13	13	+0	No	$0	03-19 15:17
US strikes Iran by June 30, 2026?	2	$20	15	15	+0	Yes	+$0	02-27 10:13
GTA VI released before June 2026?	2	$20	10	10	+0	No	$0	02-25 02:27
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	2	$20	14	14	+0	Yes	$0	02-06 15:01
bitcoin up or down april 11 2026 10pm et	1	$20	20	0	+20	Up	+$0	04-12 02:50
bitcoin up or down march 25 2026 8am et	2	$19	15	15	+0	Up	-$10	03-25 12:56
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	2	$19	13	13	+0	Yes	+$7	06-15 03:41
bitcoin up or down march 27 2026 2pm et	1	$19	19	0	+19	Up	+$0	03-27 18:50
bitcoin up or down march 27 2026 9pm et	1	$19	19	0	+19	Down	+$0	03-28 01:50
bitcoin up or down april 20 2026 7am et	1	$19	19	0	+19	Up	+$0	04-20 11:54
bitcoin up or down april 13 2026 2pm et	1	$19	19	0	+19	Up	+$1	04-13 18:50
bitcoin up or down april 13 2026 4pm et	1	$19	19	0	+19	Down	+$0	04-13 20:55
bitcoin up or down april 12 2026 10am et	1	$18	19	0	+19	Down	+$1	04-12 14:57
bitcoin up or down april 12 2026 6am et	1	$18	18	0	+18	Down	+$0	04-12 10:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6AM ET	1	$18	19	0	+19	Down	+$0	05-16 10:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET	1	$18	18	0	+18	Up	+$0	05-28 20:51
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET	1	$18	18	0	+18	Down	+$0	05-16 07:53
bitcoin up or down march 25 2026 4pm et	1	$18	18	0	+18	Up	+$0	03-25 20:55
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$18	9	9	+0	No	+$0	03-16 17:08
bitcoin up or down april 21 2026 1pm et	1	$18	19	0	+19	Down	+$1	04-21 17:55
bitcoin up or down april 21 2026 3pm et	1	$18	18	0	+18	Down	+$0	04-21 19:50
iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	2	$18	10	10	+0	No	+$3	06-19 02:46
bitcoin up or down march 23 2026 4pm et	1	$18	18	0	+18	Up	+$0	03-23 20:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-27 20:06:18	Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	12	19¢	$2	0xac7882…
07-09 09:54:52	Will the highest temperature in London be 35°C on July 9?	Yes	BUY	17	40¢	$7	0xcb368e…
06-25 00:29:41	mlb phi wsh 2026 06 24	Washington Nationals	BUY	19	33¢	$6	0x481c52…
06-24 02:48:35	mlb bos col 2026 06 23 total 8pt5	Under	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0xa8d6f0…
06-24 01:18:53	mlb mil cin 2026 06 23	Cincinnati Reds	BUY	39	13¢	$5	0x088b9d…
06-23 23:35:32	mlb chc nym 2026 06 23 spread away 1pt5	New York Mets	BUY	9	63¢	$5	0x2d3113…
06-23 03:13:52	mlb atl sd 2026 06 22 spread away 1pt5	San Diego Padres	BUY	11	79¢	$9	0x15e616…
06-22 11:55:04	russia x ukraine ceasefire by december 31 2026	No	BUY	14	81¢	$11	0xb8426d…
06-21 22:00:04	mlb bal lad 2026 06 21	Baltimore Orioles	BUY	6	93¢	$5	0xe9d61f…
06-20 23:01:02	mlb sd tex 2026 06 20 spread away 1pt5	Texas Rangers	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0x26933f…
06-20 00:04:20	mlb mil atl 2026 06 19 spread away 1pt5	Atlanta Braves	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0xcd3e7a…
06-19 21:59:04	trump meets with putin by december 31	No	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x81cad0…
06-19 02:46:20	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x571817…
06-18 20:05:47	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	SELL	14	42¢	$6	0x27686e…
06-17 23:34:58	mlb tor bos 2026 06 17	Toronto Blue Jays	BUY	10	53¢	$5	0xd1fdaf…
06-17 20:26:59	mlb tb lad 2026 06 17 total 7pt5	Under	BUY	8	53¢	$4	0x76eae2…
06-17 17:39:50	mlb nym cin 2026 06 17	Cincinnati Reds	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xae5499…
06-17 03:33:40	mlb pit oak 2026 06 16	Pittsburgh Pirates	BUY	18	27¢	$5	0xc14784…
06-16 11:34:18	russia x ukraine ceasefire by october 31 2026	No	BUY	11	78¢	$9	0xefdf87…
06-15 03:41:04	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0x9de2ab…
06-13 22:36:49	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0xe5cfbd…
06-13 17:31:34	iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through hormuz by june 30	No	BUY	10	72¢	$8	0xb8de1c…
06-13 17:27:21	US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	No	SELL	7	36¢	$3	0x4f2175…
06-13 07:42:49	us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 15 2889	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x7d8cb3…
06-12 04:11:10	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	BUY	13	45¢	$6	0xa36fa1…
06-11 03:24:10	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Knicks	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x54fde1…
06-11 02:40:06	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 spread away 15pt5	Spurs	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x30b814…
06-11 01:28:36	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10 spread away 8pt5	Spurs	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xb06711…
06-11 00:53:03	nba sas nyk 2026 06 10	Spurs	BUY	8	59¢	$5	0x43399b…
06-11 00:49:40	mlb min det 2026 06 10	Detroit Tigers	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x24ed9d…
06-10 18:42:33	mlb nyy cle 2026 06 10	Cleveland Guardians	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x9f425b…
06-10 01:23:33	mlb sea bal 2026 06 09 total 10pt5	Under	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x05d865…
06-10 00:32:49	mlb min det 2026 06 09 total 8pt5	Over	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x00b752…
06-09 23:40:40	mlb ari mia 2026 06 09 total 10pt5	Under	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x4623c9…
06-09 01:42:25	mlb cin sd 2026 06 08	Cincinnati Reds	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x4fd4f2…
06-09 01:39:57	nba sas nyk 2026 06 08 spread home 3pt5	Spurs	BUY	8	74¢	$6	0xdc94b4…
06-08 08:38:21	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	SELL	9	46¢	$4	0x8cd5c2…
06-08 08:07:52	israel closes its airspace by june 15 687	No	BUY	9	53¢	$5	0xe07238…
06-07 21:40:30	mlb nym sd 2026 06 07	New York Mets	BUY	15	64¢	$10	0xb1be1b…
06-06 17:32:07	mlb sea det 2026 06 06	Seattle Mariners	BUY	16	56¢	$9	0x5a02b0…
06-06 02:52:18	nba nyk sas 2026 06 05 spread home 3pt5	Knicks	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xd88f43…
06-06 02:19:45	wnba phx por 2026 06 05 spread home 2pt5	Phoenix Mercury	BUY	9	65¢	$6	0xc1bf81…
06-05 02:33:22	mlb lad ari 2026 06 04	Los Angeles Dodgers	BUY	10	61¢	$6	0x467d2e…
06-05 00:33:30	mlb kc min 2026 06 04	Minnesota Twins	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x6baefe…
06-04 02:26:12	nba nyk sas 2026 06 03 spread home 1pt5	Spurs	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xedc179…
06-03 03:50:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x82a522…
06-03 01:56:32	Spread: Minnesota Twins (-2.5)	Chicago White Sox	BUY	11	82¢	$9	0xecacae…
06-02 16:50:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x32d8e4…
06-01 21:51:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0xa528f1…
06-01 10:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	10	96¢	$9	0xc56d2c…
05-31 19:07:18	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	7	83¢	$5	0x8f8d7f…
05-31 19:06:01	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x6c3f85…
05-31 19:05:29	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0x230958…
05-30 01:54:08	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0xf2a93a…
05-29 07:50:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x3f724b…
05-29 01:51:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xe3e78f…
05-28 20:51:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4PM ET	Up	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x5f4271…
05-28 19:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	13	99¢	$12	0x15c469…
05-28 07:57:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x377407…
05-27 01:50:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	17	98¢	$17	0xf1e009…
05-25 22:53:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	14	100¢	$14	0xf0e2f5…
05-25 19:55:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 3PM ET	Down	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0x68c9d7…
05-24 21:50:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5PM ET	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x75bbfd…
05-22 11:53:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x062161…
05-21 05:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x3d7ce3…
05-20 07:51:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x9ba688…
05-20 02:50:38	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET	Down	BUY	16	99¢	$16	0x264249…
05-19 22:50:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6PM ET	Down	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0xc3b7f0…
05-19 19:15:17	Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-19?	No	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x2e446b…
05-19 16:50:35	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET	Up	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x082592…
05-19 07:50:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x1e5c5d…
05-18 21:56:42	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xe3f268…
05-18 19:50:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3PM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xea21df…
05-18 10:56:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	13	100¢	$13	0x43a883…
05-18 03:55:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET	Up	BUY	14	98¢	$13	0xdf47f8…
05-18 01:51:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xab571c…
05-17 21:51:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 5PM ET	Up	BUY	17	98¢	$16	0x8cb1dd…
05-17 10:50:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6AM ET	Up	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0x66c835…
05-16 11:51:06	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xfbbde1…
05-16 10:56:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6AM ET	Down	BUY	19	99¢	$18	0xdadb58…
05-16 07:53:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3AM ET	Down	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0xca382f…
05-15 18:52:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	6	99¢	$6	0xfb1adf…
05-15 17:56:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1PM ET	Up	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x1f68f4…
05-15 12:50:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x1552df…
05-15 09:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 5AM ET	Down	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x1e3ed2…
05-15 07:51:29	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3AM ET	Up	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x95b40d…
05-15 05:50:32	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1AM ET	Down	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xec9167…
05-15 03:50:24	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11PM ET	Down	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0xbdc6cd…
05-15 00:50:26	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 8PM ET	Up	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x16c2ef…
05-14 18:55:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 2PM ET	Down	BUY	16	97¢	$15	0x6885e1…
05-14 11:52:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7AM ET	Down	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x884c16…
05-14 05:50:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1AM ET	Up	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xac6ce4…
05-13 18:53:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 2PM ET	Up	BUY	18	91¢	$16	0x0522bd…
04-26 11:56:40	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 7AM ET	Up	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xeddd34…
04-26 04:51:04	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 12AM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xd4f85f…
04-26 00:57:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8PM ET	Down	BUY	7	100¢	$6	0x3688c2…
04-25 17:55:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 1PM ET	Down	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x4ebf5e…
04-25 13:51:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9AM ET	Up	BUY	9	98¢	$9	0xb3d56b…
04-25 12:52:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8AM ET	Down	BUY	8	99¢	$8	0x224131…
04-25 01:50:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 9PM ET	Up	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x678554…