Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$44

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

73.4%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$1.60K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$18

Open exposure

$43

1 position

First seen

2026-03-21

last 10-18 21:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 29 days

Categories

Other

62% 76% +$5

Crypto

19% 62% -$81

Tech

10% 100% +$32

Politics

9% 44% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 10 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+45	$41	98¢	$43	+$2	10-18 21:04

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	2	$180	120	120	+0	Yes	-$41	10-08 18:12
Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?	2	$144	78	78	+0	Yes	+$4	10-13 13:56
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 14:50 UTC	3	$120	172	86	+86	Down	-$39	03-21 14:50
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	4	$116	478	478	+0	No	+$30	09-03 19:46
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?	5	$106	66	66	+0	Yes	+$25	09-04 19:17
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?	3	$94	50	50	+0	No	+$4	09-12 08:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 16:45 UTC	2	$67	34	34	+0	Up	+$1	04-06 16:48
lol gen g2 2026 03 21	6	$65	108	108	+0	G2 Esports	+$5	03-21 14:25
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$51	28	28	+0	No	+$2	03-27 16:38
nflx up or down on april 14 2026	2	$49	25	25	+0	Up	+$1	04-15 05:19
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	2	$42	22	22	+0	Yes	+$2	05-30 13:40
Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?	1	$42	44	0	+44	Yes	+$2	08-30 05:29
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	1	$41	45	0	+45	open	—	10-18 21:04
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$35	30	30	+0	Yes	+$5	09-12 08:02
will the us invade iran by march 31	2	$32	18	18	+0	No	+$2	04-01 05:40
spx up or down on april 1 2026	1	$30	32	0	+32	Up	+$2	04-01 15:09
highest temperature in wellington on april 17 2026 18c	1	$27	29	0	+29	Yes	+$1	04-17 03:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 14:45 UTC	2	$26	100	0	+100	Down	-$26	03-21 14:48
Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	2	$26	20	20	+0	No	+$14	09-12 08:02
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between September 14 and September 20, 2026?	2	$25	13	13	+0	No	+$0	09-04 19:16
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 14:35 UTC	1	$25	25,000	0	+25,000	Down	-$25	03-21 14:41
will 10 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	2	$22	12	12	+0	Yes	+$2	04-14 16:18
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	1	$20	22	0	+22	No	+$1	04-22 10:03
Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?	1	$19	20	0	+20	Yes	+$1	09-04 03:39
msft close above 410 on april 20 2026	1	$19	20	0	+20	Yes	+$1	04-19 14:41
will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	2	$18	10	10	+0	No	+$2	03-27 16:38
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	4	$15	22	19	+3	No	-$1	04-12 10:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-02 03:35 UTC	2	$13	17	16	+1	Down	+$4	04-02 03:37
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-02 03:45 UTC	2	$11	10	10	+0	Down	+$1	04-02 03:48
highest temperature in dallas on april 13 2026 82forhigher	1	$10	12	0	+12	Yes	+$2	04-12 10:50

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-18 21:04:33	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	92¢	$41	0xb71c43…
10-18 21:04:15	Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	37	27¢	$10	0x555b0f…
10-13 13:56:25	Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	95¢	$74	0xfb47c9…
10-13 04:03:06	Gemini Argon released by October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	78	89¢	$70	0x27b7e0…
10-08 18:12:54	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	120	58¢	$70	0xe06d88…
10-07 17:41:40	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xde6f97…
10-07 17:13:41	Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	120	92¢	$110	0x001f80…
09-12 08:02:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	15	78¢	$12	0xb6d132…
09-12 08:02:03	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xba2f17…
09-12 08:02:00	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?	No	SELL	50	99¢	$49	0x5efb3f…
09-10 05:39:16	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	15	56¢	$8	0x5b0b84…
09-08 09:34:19	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?	No	BUY	29	90¢	$27	0xd1ba03…
09-08 08:42:39	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1520?	No	BUY	21	90¢	$18	0x9e6588…
09-08 06:04:09	Will OpenAI’s Astra model debut on the Arena Leaderboard at a score of at least 1480?	No	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x4efd2d…
09-04 19:34:27	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	30	51¢	$15	0x518415…
09-04 19:17:45	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	66	99¢	$65	0xa45a84…
09-04 19:16:16	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between September 14 and September 20, 2026?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$13	0x4c47a7…
09-04 15:50:06	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between September 14 and September 20, 2026?	No	BUY	13	97¢	$13	0x1bf708…
09-04 04:13:57	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0xd2b534…
09-04 04:12:31	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	59¢	$6	0x29abb8…
09-04 03:51:46	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" 6th Weekend Box Office be at least 15m?	No	BUY	10	3¢	$0	0x66a3e5…
09-04 03:39:15	Will HotSchedules be #2 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on September 4?	Yes	BUY	20	95¢	$19	0xcee322…
09-04 02:10:01	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	62¢	$23	0xdbe1fd…
09-04 02:08:54	Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released between August 31 and September 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	62¢	$7	0xc4a98b…
09-03 19:46:34	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	226	20¢	$45	0xcd9aea…
09-03 15:46:52	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	182	11¢	$20	0x7fb1bc…
09-03 15:44:40	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	70	11¢	$8	0x1e5ba2…
09-03 07:28:33	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	478	9¢	$43	0x6b8424…
08-30 05:29:31	Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on August 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	44	95¢	$42	0x8e0e15…
05-30 13:40:10	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	SELL	22	100¢	$22	0xe1610f…
05-29 17:39:14	Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x7f313a…
05-29 17:38:16	US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	4	38¢	$1	0x42d7aa…
04-22 10:03:50	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	BUY	22	93¢	$20	0x1af8ff…
04-19 14:41:48	msft close above 410 on april 20 2026	Yes	BUY	20	94¢	$19	0xb5e97d…
04-19 14:40:34	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	61¢	$2	0x93d635…
04-19 14:40:24	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x1c06c3…
04-19 14:40:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x5d50d4…
04-19 14:39:20	will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	No	SELL	5	98¢	$5	0xc84dc5…
04-17 03:16:38	highest temperature in wellington on april 17 2026 18c	Yes	BUY	29	95¢	$27	0x91625d…
04-15 05:21:16	Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets in April?	Yes	BUY	6	48¢	$3	0x836534…
04-15 05:19:36	nflx up or down on april 14 2026	Up	SELL	25	100¢	$25	0x47f92c…
04-14 16:27:52	nflx up or down on april 14 2026	Up	BUY	25	95¢	$24	0x259516…
04-14 16:18:19	will 10 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	Yes	SELL	12	100¢	$12	0x75c59a…
04-12 10:50:47	highest temperature in dallas on april 13 2026 82forhigher	Yes	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xaa3397…
04-12 10:50:23	will 10 ships transit the strait of hormuz on any day april 812	Yes	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x69db9a…
04-12 10:48:25	will the kharg island oil terminal be hit by april 15	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0xffe835…
04-12 10:48:07	will another country conduct military action against iran by april 15 2026	No	BUY	5	95¢	$5	0x176384…
04-12 10:44:19	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xda031e…
04-12 10:41:59	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x67e66b…
04-12 10:41:27	Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	31¢	$3	0x37602a…
04-09 05:08:37	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xbbd602…
04-09 05:05:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-09 05:05 UTC	Up	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x224894…
04-09 05:05:09	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	SELL	19	39¢	$7	0x0633b2…
04-08 15:45:45	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x9c92cc…
04-06 16:55:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 16:55 UTC	Up	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0x3fda79…
04-06 16:50:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 16:50 UTC	Up	BUY	2	43¢	$1	0xe56493…
04-06 16:48:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 16:45 UTC	Up	SELL	34	99¢	$34	0x470d92…
04-06 16:48:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 16:45 UTC	Up	BUY	34	97¢	$33	0x4544b3…
04-06 16:43:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-06 16:40 UTC	Up	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0xbda1cd…
04-06 16:43:07	Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	Yes	BUY	15	34¢	$5	0xd7aa14…
04-02 03:48:39	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-02 03:45 UTC	Down	SELL	10	61¢	$6	0x1a8352…
04-02 03:45:49	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-04-02 03:45 UTC	Down	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0xd03704…
04-02 03:37:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-02 03:35 UTC	Down	SELL	16	50¢	$8	0x5603b1…
04-02 03:36:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-02 03:35 UTC	Down	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x3c3ab9…
04-02 03:33:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-02 03:30 UTC	Down	SELL	4	90¢	$4	0x8ec7ec…
04-02 03:31:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-02 03:30 UTC	Down	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x748fe9…
04-02 03:29:37	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-02 03:25 UTC	Down	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x1d0f01…
04-02 03:29:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-04-02 03:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	93¢	$5	0x0c7c70…
04-01 15:09:29	spx up or down on april 1 2026	Up	BUY	32	95¢	$30	0x6eef64…
04-01 05:40:55	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	SELL	18	100¢	$17	0x1be532…
03-27 16:51:27	will the 10 year treasury yield hit 4pt5 by march 31	No	BUY	8	83¢	$6	0x88d24d…
03-27 16:47:15	spx up or down on march 27 2026	Down	BUY	5	98¢	$5	0x8b39a9…
03-27 16:45:09	us x iran ceasefire by april 30	Yes	BUY	25	40¢	$10	0x187d98…
03-27 16:42:35	will the us invade iran by march 31	No	BUY	18	86¢	$15	0x9d3226…
03-27 16:38:25	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	28	96¢	$26	0x160e43…
03-27 16:38:23	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x647870…
03-26 03:03:03	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	28	88¢	$24	0xa4b6ae…
03-21 14:50:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 14:50 UTC	Up	BUY	85	46¢	$39	0xb9f596…
03-21 14:50:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 14:50 UTC	Down	SELL	86	46¢	$40	0xa0b28b…
03-21 14:49:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 14:50 UTC	Down	BUY	88	47¢	$41	0xe594b9…
03-21 14:48:33	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 14:45 UTC	Up	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x02b9c5…
03-21 14:44:57	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 14:45 UTC	Up	BUY	50	50¢	$25	0xad5b80…
03-21 14:41:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-03-21 14:35 UTC	Up	BUY	25,000	0¢	$25	0x2ee9a8…
03-21 14:30:11	will bitcoin reach 80k in march 2026	No	BUY	10	83¢	$8	0x965574…
03-21 14:25:19	lol gen g2 2026 03 21	G2 Esports	SELL	38	32¢	$12	0x404ea6…
03-21 14:25:17	lol gen g2 2026 03 21	G2 Esports	SELL	15	32¢	$5	0x5a1f4f…
03-21 14:25:15	lol gen g2 2026 03 21	G2 Esports	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0x1d261c…
03-21 14:25:11	lol gen g2 2026 03 21	G2 Esports	SELL	14	32¢	$4	0x224dc2…
03-21 14:25:01	lol gen g2 2026 03 21	G2 Esports	SELL	37	32¢	$12	0x5db75b…
03-21 14:14:39	lol gen g2 2026 03 21	G2 Esports	BUY	108	28¢	$30	0xb73dc1…