Ragged-Nonbeliever — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

63.6%

Resolved

112

Trades

256

lifetime

Volume

$1.53K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-04-20

last 07-10 19:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 52 days

Categories

Other

92% 55% -$6

Politics

4% 100% +$1

Sports

2% 100% +$0

Tech

2% 100% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-10).

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	1	$35	35	0	+35	Yes	+$0	06-18 22:50
Will Danilo Barbosa da Silva be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	1	$30	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-29 19:46
GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026?	2	$30	15	15	+0	No	+$0	05-22 23:46
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	1	$29	29	0	+29	No	+$0	06-29 02:29
Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	2	$29	15	15	+0	No	+$1	05-31 22:34
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 10–15%?	2	$28	15	15	+0	No	+$1	07-10 19:42
Will Adele be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list?	2	$27	14	14	+0	No	+$1	05-05 02:10
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	1	$25	25	0	+25	Yes	+$0	06-28 03:48
Will "Man on Fire: Season 1" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	2	$25	13	13	+0	Yes	+$1	05-05 18:54
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 20.5m?	2	$23	12	12	+0	Yes	+$1	04-27 19:19
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?	1	$22	22	0	+22	No	+$0	06-25 12:40
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	2	$20	10	10	+0	Yes	+$0	06-28 17:59
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 30?	5	$18	36	0	+36	No	$0	05-29 14:09
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C on May 14?	3	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-13 20:10
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on April 25?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-24 15:24
highest temperature in helsinki on april 22 2026 11c	2	$15	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	04-21 21:59
highest temperature in chongqing on april 23 2026 22c	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-22 14:36
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on May 29?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	$0	05-28 18:44
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on May 4?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-04 05:00
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 8?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	$0	06-08 01:23
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 27?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-26 21:51
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 2?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-02 11:48
highest temperature in buenos aires on april 23 2026 26corhigher	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	$0	04-22 15:49
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C or higher on May 6?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-05 23:30
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 11?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	06-10 18:03
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 31?	2	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-31 16:54
highest temperature in hong kong on april 21 2026 28c	2	$15	30	0	+30	Yes	+$0	04-21 08:13
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 10°C on May 5?	6	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	05-04 19:26
highest temperature in wuhan on april 23 2026 21c	5	$15	30	0	+30	No	+$0	04-22 21:06
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 27°C or higher on May 3?	2	$14	28	0	+28	No	+$0	05-02 16:36

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-10 19:42:32	Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 10–15%?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0xc2cdbd…
06-29 02:29:17	European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x1ef7f3…
06-29 00:00:04	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 29?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0x3929ec…
06-28 23:41:10	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 29?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x271a22…
06-28 17:59:16	Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0xc28256…
06-28 07:32:28	Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 22-June 28?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x0b7930…
06-28 03:48:02	Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0xfbdacf…
06-27 12:25:59	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0xab7d20…
06-27 12:25:07	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 28?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x34f23a…
06-27 12:11:55	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 20°C on June 28?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xf9f33c…
06-26 20:02:55	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 27?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x198ab7…
06-26 16:42:29	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 98-99°F on June 27?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xd8e128…
06-25 17:06:32	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 26?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xb557c4…
06-25 16:54:22	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 26?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x7a0221…
06-25 12:40:22	Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?	No	BUY	22	100¢	$22	0xad37c1…
06-25 02:11:08	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 25?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x89b7db…
06-25 00:48:04	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on June 25?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xa77be9…
06-24 08:31:17	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 24?	Yes	BUY	8	2¢	$0	0x6698c8…
06-24 08:21:59	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 24?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0x6329bb…
06-24 08:01:56	Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on June 24?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x2013d4…
06-23 04:00:47	Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 10–15%?	No	BUY	15	90¢	$14	0x9338aa…
06-21 09:33:46	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 21?	No	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0xf0aaa5…
06-21 09:29:35	Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 21?	Yes	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x4328cf…
06-20 06:00:35	Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	1	1¢	$0	0x21260e…
06-20 05:47:11	Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 20?	Yes	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0x935456…
06-20 05:02:22	Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 20?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x18d35b…
06-19 09:05:20	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 19?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0xd3e80c…
06-19 07:27:46	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 19?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xc98e28…
06-18 22:50:53	Will Canada win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x762a1a…
06-17 04:37:16	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x216b6c…
06-17 04:23:20	Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 17?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x977643…
06-16 09:14:13	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x3dd3a9…
06-15 22:28:27	Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on June 16?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0xf796bb…
06-14 23:36:15	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15?	Yes	BUY	12	2¢	$0	0x7adf75…
06-14 23:26:46	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 15?	No	BUY	12	98¢	$12	0x696497…
06-14 03:14:25	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0xe7e4df…
06-14 01:44:06	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 14?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xf4dc29…
06-13 08:39:12	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13?	No	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xf8c827…
06-13 08:38:37	Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x525e10…
06-12 13:44:51	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x787706…
06-12 12:03:22	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xa22ce5…
06-11 19:38:33	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 12?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0x452ee4…
06-11 18:21:04	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 12?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x08d76c…
06-10 18:03:48	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 11?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0xf6c7b9…
06-10 17:49:40	Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C or higher on June 11?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x1cbc36…
06-09 01:14:39	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x5417f8…
06-09 01:13:54	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9?	Yes	BUY	9	1¢	$0	0x90f3ac…
06-09 01:01:37	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 9?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xca8a42…
06-08 01:23:00	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 8?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0x18839f…
06-08 01:22:31	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on June 8?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x434864…
06-07 08:05:16	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 7?	Yes	BUY	14	2¢	$0	0xab148b…
06-07 07:39:57	Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on June 7?	No	BUY	14	98¢	$14	0xa2191d…
06-07 01:28:07	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 7?	Yes	BUY	14	1¢	$0	0x892113…
06-06 13:38:01	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 7?	No	BUY	14	99¢	$14	0x544598…
06-06 02:14:45	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 6?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0xd21bd0…
06-06 02:09:24	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 6?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x10dab4…
06-05 06:49:22	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5?	No	BUY	13	1¢	$0	0xf22f52…
06-05 06:30:45	Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0xb209e7…
06-04 19:47:09	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 5?	Yes	BUY	11	1¢	$0	0xf6afad…
06-04 12:00:58	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C on June 5?	No	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x08d72f…
06-03 06:48:19	Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x3b869e…
06-03 06:48:19	Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 3?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0x05b086…
06-03 06:08:37	Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 3?	No	BUY	13	99¢	$13	0x701909…
06-02 11:48:13	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x7d20f3…
06-02 11:03:50	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on June 2?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x3ef4bb…
06-02 06:27:04	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0xeb81d3…
06-01 22:06:15	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 2?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x0c802a…
06-01 13:03:36	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 2?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0x353eb7…
06-01 12:04:39	Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 2?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xb462b8…
06-01 00:29:19	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 1?	No	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x933b33…
05-31 23:06:40	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on June 1?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x91103a…
05-31 22:34:49	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	15	100¢	$15	0xc83d8c…
05-31 16:54:19	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 31?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x48769e…
05-31 08:41:42	Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on May 31?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0x44ff1a…
05-30 15:46:26	Will Russia enter Novooleksandrivka by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	15	92¢	$14	0x4a8afe…
05-30 07:49:09	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 30?	No	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0xa759e2…
05-30 07:36:54	Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 30?	Yes	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x356ff1…
05-29 19:46:50	Will Danilo Barbosa da Silva be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x77c7cf…
05-29 14:09:23	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	3	2¢	$0	0x399868…
05-29 14:08:16	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	6	2¢	$0	0x6cc69b…
05-29 14:07:12	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	7	2¢	$0	0x6a2178…
05-29 14:06:05	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 30?	Yes	BUY	2	2¢	$0	0xb78c95…
05-29 11:29:54	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 30?	No	BUY	18	98¢	$18	0xb0291e…
05-29 07:05:42	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on May 29?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x7d86a0…
05-29 06:26:27	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on May 29?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0xff1270…
05-28 18:44:35	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on May 29?	Yes	BUY	15	1¢	$0	0xf6f7d7…
05-28 12:15:11	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 37°C or higher on May 29?	No	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0x1a5b65…
05-28 06:24:11	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 28?	No	BUY	0	2¢	$0	0x127bca…
05-28 06:16:10	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 28?	No	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x7a7015…
05-28 06:11:28	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 28?	Yes	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x5cd325…
05-27 16:58:40	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 28?	Yes	BUY	10	2¢	$0	0x89b5aa…
05-27 14:49:04	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 28?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x027512…
05-27 06:29:50	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on May 27?	Yes	BUY	12	1¢	$0	0xdcb641…
05-27 06:27:09	Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or below on May 27?	No	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0x5cc48b…
05-26 21:51:38	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 27?	Yes	BUY	15	2¢	$0	0x15ab3b…
05-26 18:42:44	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 27?	Yes	BUY	10	1¢	$0	0x11710f…
05-26 16:24:32	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on May 27?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xf46f61…
05-26 12:25:22	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C on May 27?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0xe55d0b…
05-22 23:46:22	GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026?	No	SELL	15	99¢	$15	0x97d3af…
05-21 02:48:29	GPT-5.6 released by May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	15	98¢	$15	0xe108bc…