Twin-Tugboat — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$12.2K

Unrealized P&L

-$485

Hit rate

76.7%

Resolved

Trades

126

lifetime

Volume

$137.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$1.09K

Open exposure

$8.83K

2 positions

First seen

2026-03-08

last 10-26 12:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 29 days

Categories

Politics

80% 62% -$14,045

Other

19% 86% +$1,839

Sports

1% 100% +$31

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 22 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No		-8,870	-$6,858	82¢	$-7318	-$460	09-09 19:09
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes		+1,654	$1,538	92¢	$1.5K	-$25	10-26 12:15

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	4	$24.2K	12,756	12,756	+0	Yes	+$1,220	05-25 10:13
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	6	$11.5K	2,709	11,580	-8,870	open	—	09-09 19:09
israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	6	$11.2K	6,265	6,265	+0	Yes	+$1,354	08-05 18:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?	2	$7.4K	3,860	3,860	+0	No	+$266	08-30 20:40
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	9	$7.2K	10,167	8,629	+1,539	No	-$3,714	10-25 23:23
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$6.9K	7,840	0	+7,840	No	+$900	05-26 01:55
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	9	$5.5K	7,317	0	+7,317	Yes	-$5,503	06-01 17:52
will wti reach 95 in july 2026	1	$4.2K	4,905	0	+4,905	No	+$657	07-17 14:05
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$4.2K	4,422	4,422	+0	Yes	-$3,330	10-25 23:23
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?	2	$3.9K	6,121	0	+6,121	Yes	+$2,243	04-01 19:38
Cuban regime falls in 2026?	3	$3.6K	2,217	2,217	+0	open	—	07-09 11:46
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	3	$3.4K	3,762	0	+3,762	No	-$3,424	05-25 10:18
will israels ben gurion airport reopen by march 15 611 421	1	$3.3K	3,577	0	+3,577	Yes	+$291	03-08 05:14
Will Bia Kicis win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?	4	$3.2K	3,783	0	+3,783	Yes	+$604	10-01 01:43
will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	1	$2.8K	3,015	0	+3,015	Yes	-$2,773	06-17 01:43
us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	1	$2.6K	2,882	0	+2,882	Yes	+$259	08-05 18:04
israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	5	$2.6K	2,829	0	+2,829	No	+$269	07-09 11:46
will there be houthi military action against israel by september 30 2026	4	$2.5K	1,435	1,435	+0	No	+$247	09-18 00:55
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	2	$2.5K	2,773	0	+2,773	No	+$307	06-01 17:42
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	12	$2.2K	2,662	0	+2,662	Yes	+$422	09-01 16:24
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30?	1	$1.9K	2,390	0	+2,390	No	-$1,912	05-25 10:14
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	1	$1.7K	2,023	0	+2,023	No	+$278	05-18 00:06
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	1	$1.7K	1,806	0	+1,806	No	+$72	07-07 17:27
Exact Score: Any Other Score?	1	$1.6K	1,726	0	+1,726	No	+$86	07-04 22:20
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Morocco?	2	$1.6K	1,655	0	+1,655	No	+$19	07-04 18:03
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	2	$1.6K	1,843	0	+1,843	No	-$1,561	05-25 10:17
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	1	$1.5K	1,654	0	+1,654	open	—	10-26 12:15
iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	1	$1.2K	1,443	0	+1,443	No	+$212	07-09 11:46
mlb tb oak 2026 08 12	1	$1000	1,031	0	+1,031	Tampa Bay Rays	+$31	08-12 20:29
Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	2	$985	518	518	+0	No	+$35	09-03 12:24

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 12:15:33	Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	1,654	93¢	$1,538	0x232a1a…
10-25 23:23:59	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	444	90¢	$401	0x0584e1…
10-25 23:23:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	4,158	10¢	$401	0x3066dc…
10-25 23:22:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	1,095	90¢	$985	0xac01b3…
10-25 23:22:35	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	264	11¢	$28	0x728636…
10-25 23:22:27	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	8,629	11¢	$957	0x0da729…
10-16 18:42:33	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xb23732…
10-05 23:42:13	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	4,422	85¢	$3,759	0xfa7991…
10-05 10:25:11	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,894	83¢	$1,568	0xf1cf2d…
10-04 22:42:41	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	787	0¢	$4	0xa29d4c…
10-01 01:43:12	Will Bia Kicis win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?	Yes	BUY	3,201	84¢	$2,695	0x7eacd3…
09-30 16:24:44	Will Bia Kicis win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?	Yes	BUY	62	74¢	$46	0x64902b…
09-30 15:47:56	Will Bia Kicis win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?	Yes	BUY	305	84¢	$257	0xb34432…
09-30 15:45:17	Will Bia Kicis win the second-most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?	Yes	BUY	215	84¢	$181	0x38e00b…
09-30 15:44:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	No	SELL	486	100¢	$485	0x45747b…
09-18 00:55:30	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,774	55¢	$967	0x675d61…
09-18 00:55:12	will there be houthi military action against israel by september 30 2026	No	SELL	1,021	97¢	$985	0x6e366e…
09-16 15:04:38	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1,576	24¢	$384	0x965814…
09-16 15:04:21	Will there be Houthi military action against Israel by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	414	96¢	$398	0xcf5be4…
09-16 15:03:44	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	No	BUY	21	72¢	$15	0xd7b059…
09-09 19:12:51	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,706	46¢	$1,253	0x94dc76…
09-09 19:10:16	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2,172	46¢	$1,000	0x51b64a…
09-09 19:09:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	2,709	85¢	$2,303	0x8c030b…
09-08 05:15:15	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	SELL	100	4¢	$4	0x642cba…
09-03 12:25:24	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	No	BUY	455	92¢	$419	0x5919e1…
09-03 12:25:04	Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	No	BUY	100	90¢	$90	0xe0728a…
09-03 12:24:46	Israel military action against Greater Beirut by August 31?	No	SELL	518	99¢	$510	0x60c995…
09-01 16:24:34	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	388	83¢	$322	0xe0d545…
09-01 16:24:16	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	SELL	322	100¢	$321	0x73eadc…
09-01 01:12:27	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	995	84¢	$836	0x176597…
09-01 01:11:21	israel military action against greater beirut by september 30	No	BUY	50	86¢	$43	0xbf1063…
09-01 01:11:03	will wti reach 110 in september 2026	No	BUY	9	96¢	$9	0x001fd6…
08-30 21:20:01	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	BUY	322	97¢	$313	0x1ca3fe…
08-30 21:19:43	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	129	84¢	$108	0xa45928…
08-30 20:55:13	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	16	84¢	$13	0x9c1627…
08-30 20:54:36	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	39	84¢	$33	0x15d99b…
08-30 20:53:51	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	BUY	49	93¢	$46	0x2945ae…
08-30 20:53:16	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0xc49ed8…
08-30 20:52:39	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	151	85¢	$128	0x9a3e08…
08-30 20:52:25	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	21	86¢	$18	0x8a492d…
08-30 20:50:46	will there be houthi military action against israel by september 30 2026	No	BUY	1,400	79¢	$1,106	0x986907…
08-30 20:50:22	will there be houthi military action against israel by september 30 2026	No	BUY	35	87¢	$31	0x54bb80…
08-30 20:49:52	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	34	84¢	$29	0xdb9a0e…
08-30 20:48:46	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	766	86¢	$658	0x20a290…
08-30 20:48:04	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	206	85¢	$174	0xd481d3…
08-30 20:47:03	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	77	41¢	$32	0x51fdaa…
08-30 20:45:00	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	332	85¢	$282	0xa7f05b…
08-30 20:43:43	will wti reach 105 in september 2026	No	BUY	28	96¢	$27	0xbca7af…
08-30 20:43:22	will wti reach 100 in september 2026	No	BUY	30	87¢	$26	0xbf1d98…
08-30 20:42:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	BUY	32	94¢	$30	0xa21bcd…
08-30 20:41:49	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	54	84¢	$45	0x9516cb…
08-30 20:41:37	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Yes	BUY	300	85¢	$254	0x9cb288…
08-30 20:41:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	BUY	473	93¢	$442	0x8fb563…
08-30 20:40:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?	No	SELL	3,860	99¢	$3,818	0xad0746…
08-16 17:57:54	israel military action against greater beirut by august 31 20260708214159403	No	BUY	518	92¢	$475	0xa15141…
08-16 17:57:25	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	SELL	476	100¢	$475	0xa4f220…
08-13 03:12:37	will wti reach 100 in august 2026	No	BUY	3,860	92¢	$3,551	0xd31b9b…
08-12 20:29:46	mlb tb oak 2026 08 12	Tampa Bay Rays	BUY	1,031	97¢	$1,000	0x1cb234…
08-05 18:08:12	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	BUY	2,709	86¢	$2,330	0x47a8ca…
08-05 18:06:29	will wti reach 95 in august 2026	No	BUY	334	90¢	$300	0xd00497…
08-05 18:05:53	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 15 20260716224448969 246 815 987 693	Yes	BUY	476	91¢	$433	0x9347e1…
08-05 18:04:53	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 31 20260715194822047	Yes	BUY	2,882	91¢	$2,623	0xff7424…
08-05 18:04:41	us x iran effective ceasfire by august 14 20260715194822046	Yes	BUY	651	88¢	$573	0xcaa52d…
08-05 18:04:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	SELL	6,265	100¢	$6,259	0xaa4b45…
08-01 22:08:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	334	80¢	$267	0xd66e59…
08-01 22:07:24	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	497	78¢	$388	0x870b49…
08-01 22:06:33	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	313	76¢	$238	0x5045d5…
08-01 22:04:30	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	1,768	79¢	$1,397	0x631dac…
08-01 22:01:48	israel x iran ceasefire continues through august 2 20260727170555149	Yes	BUY	3,353	78¢	$2,615	0xd59cb1…
07-17 14:05:43	will wti reach 95 in july 2026	No	BUY	4,905	87¢	$4,247	0x462436…
07-09 11:46:55	iran full airspace closure by july 15 20260625195254149	No	BUY	1,443	85¢	$1,231	0x89659b…
07-09 11:46:37	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	1,382	89¢	$1,230	0x7c99d4…
07-09 11:46:20	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	792	95¢	$751	0xa59422…
07-09 11:45:49	Cuban regime falls in 2026?	No	SELL	835	90¢	$752	0x0add8e…
07-08 21:40:14	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	1,368	89¢	$1,218	0xea5c14…
07-08 21:39:53	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	373	89¢	$331	0xebc30b…
07-08 21:39:25	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	227	88¢	$200	0x9c4f6b…
07-08 21:39:01	israel closes its airspace by july 15 182	No	BUY	69	86¢	$60	0xbcd3fe…
07-07 17:27:08	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	No	BUY	1,806	96¢	$1,734	0x9a2f2e…
07-04 22:20:14	Exact Score: Any Other Score?	No	BUY	1,726	95¢	$1,640	0x3d2f6e…
07-04 18:03:47	Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Morocco?	No	BUY	1,095	99¢	$1,083	0x01b098…
07-04 18:03:25	Exact Score: Canada 2 - 2 Morocco?	No	BUY	560	99¢	$553	0x96e122…
06-17 01:43:17	will iran close its airspace by june 30 20260609184136054	No	BUY	3,015	92¢	$2,773	0x80fa16…
06-01 17:52:04	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	286	77¢	$219	0xe0c5ef…
06-01 17:50:24	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	262	76¢	$200	0x05d550…
06-01 17:49:17	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	1,323	76¢	$1,000	0xed1f49…
06-01 17:49:02	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	65	91¢	$59	0x74feb1…
06-01 17:46:03	Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	232	87¢	$202	0x00f8a4…
06-01 17:45:37	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	35	75¢	$26	0x50616f…
06-01 17:45:23	Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	33	87¢	$29	0x2f928c…
06-01 17:43:19	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	5,017	75¢	$3,758	0xde6ad2…
06-01 17:42:58	Israel closes its airspace by June 15?	No	BUY	1,973	89¢	$1,756	0x2955bf…
06-01 17:42:33	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	330	91¢	$300	0xae8b21…
06-01 17:42:26	Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	304	89¢	$271	0x1b8da6…
06-01 17:42:16	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	27	75¢	$20	0x4cd5a7…
05-29 01:39:32	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	14	76¢	$11	0x4f802b…
05-29 01:39:23	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	131	76¢	$100	0x1776b2…
05-29 01:39:11	Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	BUY	222	76¢	$169	0x923d5c…
05-29 01:38:52	Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	No	SELL	341	82¢	$280	0x3a82e6…
05-26 01:55:50	Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	3,904	83¢	$3,240	0x5c16df…