Realized P&L
+$1.72M
Unrealized P&L
-$8.08K
Hit rate
65.7%
Resolved
445
Trades
41,076
lifetime
Volume
$26.2M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$639
Open exposure
$640.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-01-01
last 10-25 22:53
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 126 days
Categories
Politics
81%
59%
+$1,624,164
Other
18%
71%
+$88,422
Sports
0%
100%
+$3,977
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
57 active days in 12wk
• peak 253 trades/day
| Market | Outcome | Mid 30D | Net shares | Cost basis | Current mid | Current value | Unrealized P&L | Last trade |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | No | +202,235 | $182,977 | 94¢ | $189.1K | +$6,112 | 10-06 14:01 | |
| Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? | No | +114,546 | $105,074 | 97¢ | $110.9K | +$5,864 | 09-15 17:48 | |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | No | +135,251 | $118,660 | 82¢ | $110.2K | -$8,431 | 08-04 17:43 | |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | No | +37,677 | $28,575 | 97¢ | $36.5K | +$7,896 | 08-05 15:39 | |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | Yes | -25,829 | -$21,942 | 86¢ | $-22135 | -$193 | 09-24 06:25 | |
| Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 | Yes | +26,720 | $18,144 | 81¢ | $21.6K | +$3,499 | 08-04 12:14 | |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | No | -23,903 | -$23,617 | 86¢ | $-20557 | +$3,060 | 09-21 01:49 | |
| iran charges hormuz fees by december 31 20260706203029175 553 | No | +18,854 | $6,885 | 87¢ | $16.4K | +$9,518 | 08-21 10:11 | |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? | Yes | -20,088 | -$18,575 | 81¢ | $-16331 | +$2,243 | 07-27 15:39 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | No | +16,689 | $5,829 | 94¢ | $15.8K | +$9,942 | 10-19 19:19 | |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | No | +12,855 | $10,672 | 96¢ | $12.4K | +$1,714 | 10-25 22:53 | |
| Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? | No | +9,912 | $4,688 | 91¢ | $9.0K | +$4,332 | 09-18 11:01 | |
| Israel and Lebanon normalize relations before 2027? | No | +8,755 | $6,517 | 94¢ | $8.2K | +$1,713 | 06-28 17:07 | |
| us iran final nuclear deal by december 31 2026 | Yes | +56,175 | $17,161 | 14¢ | $7.6K | -$9,578 | 08-02 03:24 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | Yes | +45,216 | $13,722 | 13¢ | $6.0K | -$7,685 | 08-04 14:57 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | Yes | +52,246 | $32,239 | 12¢ | $6.0K | -$26,230 | 09-29 18:40 | |
| Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026? | No | +4,419 | $3,724 | 95¢ | $4.2K | +$474 | 08-04 02:55 | |
| iran charges hormuz fees by october 31 | No | +3,944 | $1,710 | 96¢ | $3.8K | +$2,078 | 08-02 17:41 | |
| Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? | No | +4,134 | $2,059 | 92¢ | $3.8K | +$1,723 | 07-25 20:22 | |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | No | +3,629 | $3,028 | 88¢ | $3.2K | +$169 | 09-16 13:50 | |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | No | +3,128 | $2,392 | 96¢ | $3.0K | +$609 | 05-25 12:44 | |
| Will UAE leave the Gulf Cooperation Council in 2026? | No | +3,089 | $2,490 | 95¢ | $2.9K | +$440 | 05-04 11:32 | |
| Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027? | No | +2,454 | $2,097 | 95¢ | $2.3K | +$235 | 08-15 04:32 | |
| Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31? | Yes | +18,105 | $8,045 | 12¢ | $2.1K | -$5,962 | 09-03 11:36 | |
| will any uranium enrichment cap 1 year be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201636 | Yes | +11,238 | $3,487 | 15¢ | $1.6K | -$1,857 | 08-02 11:59 | |
| Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? | Yes | +16,028 | $8,231 | 7¢ | $1.1K | -$7,109 | 09-30 01:01 | |
| Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? | No | +1,101 | $925 | 90¢ | $993 | +$68 | 08-11 03:44 | |
| will a 1 year enrichment moratorium be in a us iran deal in 2026 20260623023201635 | Yes | +7,432 | $1,506 | 12¢ | $929 | -$577 | 08-02 12:47 | |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | Yes | +16,689 | $3,659 | 6¢ | $918 | -$2,741 | 06-18 17:08 | |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | No | +964 | $240 | 87¢ | $835 | +$596 | 05-23 16:03 |
| Market | Trades | Volume USD | Bought | Sold | Net shares | Resolution | P&L | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | 770 | $1.26M | 3,641,779 | 3,486,965 | +154,814 | No | -$188,662 | 06-01 10:53 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 7 346 | 536 | $1.21M | 1,396,524 | 1,302,984 | +93,540 | Yes | +$347,000 | 04-21 15:49 |
| us iran final nuclear deal by august 31 2026 20260621201255154 | 316 | $1.04M | 959,154 | 514,631 | +444,523 | No | +$32,772 | 08-06 18:27 |
| Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? | 308 | $826.3K | 703,337 | 517,514 | +185,823 | No | -$1,322 | 05-01 05:56 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | 328 | $573.0K | 753,221 | 463,587 | +289,635 | No | +$37,254 | 05-23 20:49 |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | 104 | $566.1K | 363,865 | 207,494 | +156,371 | Yes | +$536 | 04-07 21:04 |
| US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | 253 | $527.6K | 394,512 | 339,810 | +54,701 | No | -$3,843 | 06-01 01:11 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | 523 | $526.4K | 412,881 | 274,911 | +137,969 | open | — | 08-04 17:43 |
| us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761 | 525 | $439.8K | 658,058 | 559,182 | +98,876 | Yes | +$83,844 | 02-28 06:46 |
| iran x israelus conflict ends by april 15 618 586 982 | 475 | $413.2K | 550,570 | 357,184 | +193,387 | Yes | +$286,816 | 04-21 11:12 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026 | 528 | $401.8K | 863,899 | 730,955 | +132,945 | No | -$25,222 | 04-21 15:53 |
| khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28 | 199 | $395.6K | 630,022 | 473,023 | +156,999 | Yes | +$268,816 | 03-02 14:50 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? | 231 | $390.4K | 357,788 | 237,215 | +120,572 | No | +$4,792 | 05-25 14:35 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? | 2,282 | $390.4K | 143,417 | 257,880 | -114,463 | No | +$3,032 | 06-15 05:38 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026? | 293 | $388.3K | 369,374 | 230,092 | +139,282 | No | +$17,721 | 06-01 04:50 |
| will the us invade venezuela by january 31 2026 | 253 | $361.4K | 335,032 | 223,655 | +111,377 | No | +$20,635 | 02-01 07:13 |
| us strikes iran by january 31 2026 165 | 534 | $345.9K | 424,986 | 190,426 | +234,560 | No | +$12,740 | 02-01 00:01 |
| will the us invade venezuela by march 31 2026 255 | 375 | $327.5K | 199,354 | 171,162 | +28,192 | No | +$30,647 | 03-31 12:52 |
| us x iran permanent peace deal by june 15 2026 734 856 129 | 615 | $307.0K | 1,606,715 | 736,532 | +870,184 | Yes | +$776,449 | 06-17 21:16 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | 227 | $306.2K | 191,078 | 191,078 | +0 | No | +$2,058 | 08-08 11:36 |
| us x iran ceasefire by april 7 | 73 | $306.1K | 173,786 | 165,308 | +8,478 | Yes | -$4,877 | 04-08 20:45 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | 638 | $295.4K | 552,829 | 546,458 | +6,372 | No | -$26,579 | 04-22 13:30 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | 252 | $273.7K | 495,797 | 449,106 | +46,691 | Yes | -$18,233 | 06-14 23:26 |
| us strikes yemen by december 31 | 63 | $262.4K | 183,516 | 112,276 | +71,240 | Yes | +$21,356 | 01-03 16:54 |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | 517 | $256.4K | 293,852 | 133,816 | +160,036 | No | +$18,380 | 05-07 20:37 |
| israel x hezbollah ceasefire by april 15 2026 | 94 | $243.3K | 213,634 | 110,483 | +103,151 | No | +$2,257 | 04-16 00:42 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? | 234 | $239.8K | 313,138 | 213,112 | +100,027 | No | +$6,061 | 07-01 08:23 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | 282 | $239.8K | 210,570 | 210,570 | +0 | Yes | +$58,400 | 08-12 03:05 |
| US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | 633 | $234.4K | 280,499 | 165,492 | +115,007 | Yes | -$11,717 | 02-27 07:51 |
| us x venezuela military engagement by december 31 391 819 722 945 174 285 817 971 353 859 836 598 255 382 192 983 | 52 | $232.7K | 173,569 | 60,000 | +113,569 | No | +$651 | 01-03 13:21 |
| Wallet | Shared markets | Overlap volume | Overlap trades | Last seen |
|---|---|---|---|---|
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