Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$69

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

68.9%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

233

233 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$1.84K

$1.84K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

3 positions

First seen

2026-10-13

last 11-05 15:42

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Other

72% 52% -$57

Politics

20% 60% -$13

Tech

7% 100% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

18 active days in 12wk • peak 63 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (16) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
will argentinas monthly inflation in october 2026 be between 1pt9 and 2pt1	Yes	—	+2	$1	44¢	$1	$0	10-16 08:41
jd vance 2028 presidential odds leader on november 30	No		+0	-$1	62¢	$0	+$2	10-16 23:40
us imports russian diesel by november 30	No		+0	-$1	88¢	$0	+$1	10-15 04:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 22, 2026?	3	$82	50	50	+0	No	+$1	10-17 09:14
anthropic reports another ai sandbox escape by october 15 20261012	5	$69	40	40	+0	No	+$0	10-14 02:20
next fable model 5pt2 released by october 16 2026	9	$58	50	50	+0	No	+$1	10-14 20:21
will altria mo q3 total domestic cigarettes shipment volume sticks in billions be above 20261008120107000 15b	6	$52	40	40	+0	Yes	+$1	10-15 02:55
texas senate favorite on november 2	4	$52	70	70	+0	Talarico	-$7	10-17 08:49
Will "Club Kid" be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	4	$47	40	40	+0	open	—	10-17 04:11
next white house press secretary announced by october 31 2026	1	$42	150	0	+150	No	-$42	10-16 19:31
Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Wearables, Home and Accessories revenue be above $9B?	5	$33	40	40	+0	No	-$4	10-24 02:02
Will Google (GOOGL) Q3 capital expenditures be above $49B?	3	$33	20	20	+0	Yes	-$1	10-16 10:51
Will One Nation win the most seats in the next New South Wales state election?	2	$32	20	20	+0	open	—	10-13 21:01
Will AbbVie Q3 Global Skyrizi net revenues be above $5.5B?	2	$31	20	20	+0	Yes	+$0	10-15 09:47
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-14 House election by 20%-25%?	4	$31	20	20	+0	open	—	10-22 17:43
Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 9?	2	$31	20	20	+0	No	+$0	10-14 00:58
will the birthday gift be nominated for best live action short film at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	2	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	10-16 01:09
Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.50T and $5.00T at the end of November 2026?	2	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	10-16 16:50
will penelope cruz be nominated for best supporting actress at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	4	$30	20	20	+0	open	—	10-14 18:04
Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?	3	$30	20	20	+0	Yes	+$2	10-17 22:55
will netanyahu announce his retirement from politics by march 31 2027	2	$29	20	20	+0	open	—	10-13 23:48
will booking bkng q3 gross bookings be above 20261008120126000 51b	2	$29	20	20	+0	Yes	+$0	10-16 08:33
Will Analog Devices' Q4 Industrial revenue be above $2.1B?	3	$29	40	40	+0	open	—	10-19 08:25
Will PVEM win the most seats in the 2027 Colima Congress election?	3	$28	20	20	+0	open	—	10-14 15:51
ilhan omar denaturalization case filed by december 31 2026	2	$27	20	20	+0	open	—	10-15 18:12
next fable model 5pt2 released by october 15 2026	2	$26	20	20	+0	No	+$0	10-14 11:03
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" be nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?	2	$26	20	20	+0	open	—	10-27 15:48
Will "One Last Order" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	2	$25	20	20	+0	open	—	10-27 14:15
will google googl q3 youtube ads revenue be above 20261008120051000 11pt6b	2	$25	20	20	+0	No	-$1	10-13 23:35
will project hail mary be nominated for best production design at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	2	$24	20	18	+2	open	—	10-16 11:36
us imports russian diesel by november 30	4	$24	20	20	+0	open	—	10-15 04:59
will abbvie q3 global skyrizi net revenues be above 20261008120114000 6pt25b	2	$24	20	20	+0	No	+$0	10-15 06:02
will abbvie q3 global skyrizi net revenues be above 20261008120114000 6b	2	$23	20	19	+1	No	+$1	10-15 14:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 15:42:33	Will "Fjord" be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	46¢	$9	0xcebda5…
11-02 19:44:28	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Mac revenue be above $10.5B?	Yes	SELL	20	41¢	$8	0x333e79…
10-31 13:17:13	Will The Odyssey win Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	12	41¢	$5	0x0e3c00…
10-27 15:48:03	Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" be nominated for Best Visual Effects at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	20	65¢	$13	0x0b096b…
10-27 14:15:26	Will "One Last Order" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	20	44¢	$9	0xe4adfc…
10-26 08:54:24	Will "Coward" be nominated for Best International Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0xb3dd59…
10-25 15:26:27	Will "Spilled Milk" be nominated for Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0x2b7943…
10-25 00:14:44	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-05 House election by 20%-25%?	Yes	SELL	20	28¢	$6	0x6074a5…
10-24 07:09:45	Will Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) Q3 Data Center revenue be above $8.8B?	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0xbd89e9…
10-24 02:02:12	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Wearables, Home and Accessories revenue be above $9B?	No	SELL	15	34¢	$5	0x76571f…
10-23 19:42:38	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 Wearables, Home and Accessories revenue be above $9B?	No	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x3b8b5a…
10-23 19:18:02	Will You Can See Everything win Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	16	17¢	$3	0x1de645…
10-23 06:00:29	Will Dune: Part Three win Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	0	23¢	$0	0xe1c1a0…
10-23 00:49:38	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	23¢	$5	0xd9c373…
10-22 17:43:21	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-14 House election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	0	80¢	$0	0xd93076…
10-22 17:43:21	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-14 House election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	15	80¢	$12	0x51ebb3…
10-22 10:11:27	Will "Too Much to Ask" from Ray Gunn be nominated for Best Original Song at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	12	24¢	$3	0xffa88f…
10-21 15:50:59	Will Lyft (LYFT) Q3 rides be above 285M?	Yes	SELL	19	17¢	$3	0x508490…
10-21 13:45:09	Will Apple (AAPL) Q4 iPhone revenue be above $58.5B?	Yes	SELL	15	29¢	$4	0x15a313…
10-20 22:31:45	Will "Magan's Fare" be nominated for Best Live Action Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	21¢	$4	0xfbe1ed…
10-20 12:07:14	Will Trump pardon anyone by December 31?	No	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0xfaf575…
10-19 21:50:07	Will Cruz Pérez Cuéllar win the 2027 Chihuahua Governor Election?	Yes	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0xbb8144…
10-19 15:57:05	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-20 House election by 25%-30%?	Yes	SELL	20	24¢	$5	0x125c49…
10-19 08:25:47	Will Analog Devices' Q4 Industrial revenue be above $2.1B?	No	SELL	40	23¢	$9	0x81ace8…
10-19 07:24:06	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-05 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	18	31¢	$6	0xebfd94…
10-18 19:43:47	Will "American Doctor" be nominated for Best Documentary Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	50¢	$10	0xa48c88…
10-18 14:09:27	Will The Odyssey win Best Sound at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	8	37¢	$3	0xd78969…
10-18 12:45:39	Next Gemini Argon released by January 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	14	15¢	$2	0x77c79e…
10-18 12:45:39	Next Gemini Argon released by January 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	6	15¢	$1	0x5d6708…
10-18 06:10:56	Will Gus Bilirakis be the next US Ambassador to Greece?	Yes	SELL	50	14¢	$7	0xc15f5c…
10-17 22:55:17	Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?	No	SELL	9	80¢	$7	0x6325c1…
10-17 22:46:18	Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?	No	SELL	11	80¢	$9	0xfb2d4e…
10-17 20:34:15	Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0xbb234e…
10-17 14:02:05	will please be nominated for best animated short film at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	20	18¢	$4	0xc80df5…
10-17 09:14:56	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 22, 2026?	No	SELL	5	83¢	$4	0x7a0739…
10-17 09:14:56	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 22, 2026?	No	SELL	45	83¢	$38	0x507969…
10-17 08:49:50	texas senate favorite on november 2	Paxton	SELL	50	15¢	$8	0xa7834e…
10-17 04:30:41	Will Parker Posey be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	16¢	$3	0xaaded6…
10-17 04:11:21	Will "Club Kid" be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0xad91e4…
10-16 23:40:38	jd vance 2028 presidential odds leader on november 30	No	SELL	49	19¢	$9	0xdf5368…
10-16 21:22:00	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-14 House election by 20%-25%?	No	SELL	5	76¢	$4	0x231c4f…
10-16 19:46:20	will openrouter process between 625t and 675t tokens oct 26 to nov 22 2026	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xa55e14…
10-16 19:31:56	next white house press secretary announced by october 31 2026	Yes	BUY	150	28¢	$42	0x5c5fe9…
10-16 19:17:16	will too much to ask from ray gunn be nominated for best original song at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xf4631f…
10-16 18:15:48	will tony gilroy be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	20	12¢	$2	0x057e0a…
10-16 18:00:54	Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	57¢	$11	0x1c31a6…
10-16 17:53:02	will micron q1 dram revenue be above 48b	Yes	SELL	13	17¢	$2	0x2d4c07…
10-16 17:53:02	will micron q1 dram revenue be above 48b	Yes	SELL	7	17¢	$1	0x14bea4…
10-16 17:19:11	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-05 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	SELL	2	31¢	$1	0x53632b…
10-16 17:18:54	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-05 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x786cae…
10-16 17:18:54	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-05 House election by 10%-15%?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x4a56de…
10-16 17:10:34	jd vance 2028 presidential odds leader on november 30	No	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0x89b25f…
10-16 16:50:16	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $4.50T and $5.00T at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	20	70¢	$14	0xce6586…
10-16 16:03:34	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 14?	Yes	BUY	4	20¢	$1	0x10f7dd…
10-16 15:55:33	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	No	SELL	20	35¢	$7	0x3ffc28…
10-16 15:43:34	Houthi military action against Saudi Arabia on October 12?	Yes	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0x5a39cd…
10-16 15:20:57	will phil lord be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0x06702f…
10-16 15:14:30	will christopher miller be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	20	14¢	$3	0x73470d…
10-16 15:06:25	Will "Club Kid" be nominated for Best Original Screenplay at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x2a468c…
10-16 14:22:27	will phil lord be nominated for best director at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	20	13¢	$3	0x42ce69…
10-16 13:35:55	texas senate favorite on november 2	Paxton	BUY	50	30¢	$15	0x8435c4…
10-16 12:59:22	hamilton flips marshall for kansas senate by november 2	No	BUY	20	68¢	$14	0xfe149a…
10-16 12:57:46	will runway from the devil wears prada 2 be nominated for best original song at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	20	20¢	$4	0x6a1755…
10-16 12:52:51	will you can see everything be nominated for best film editing at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	15	24¢	$4	0xe7c11c…
10-16 12:46:03	will runway from the devil wears prada 2 be nominated for best original song at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x98c5b3…
10-16 12:17:00	will iran target an arab country by october 22 2026 20261015	Yes	SELL	20	17¢	$3	0xb1e3f6…
10-16 11:48:33	collins flips jackson for maine senate by november 2	Yes	SELL	20	36¢	$7	0x11fd84…
10-16 11:36:10	will project hail mary be nominated for best production design at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	18	63¢	$12	0xf63d28…
10-16 11:35:18	michigan senate favorite on november 2	Rogers	BUY	19	22¢	$4	0x7d6414…
10-16 11:34:46	paxton flips talarico for texas senate by november 2	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xbc4d80…
10-16 11:33:43	paxton flips talarico for texas senate by november 2	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0xd52e1c…
10-16 11:32:01	talarico texas senate odds hit 75 by november 2	Yes	SELL	9	14¢	$1	0x90377d…
10-16 10:51:27	Will Google (GOOGL) Q3 capital expenditures be above $49B?	Yes	SELL	19	81¢	$15	0x8f9f8f…
10-16 10:49:57	husted flips brown for ohio senate by november 2	Yes	SELL	20	22¢	$4	0xc44844…
10-16 10:25:54	collins flips jackson for maine senate by november 2	Yes	BUY	20	33¢	$7	0xd050f3…
10-16 10:16:22	talarico texas senate odds hit 75 by november 2	Yes	BUY	10	12¢	$1	0x50a69b…
10-16 10:09:28	texas senate favorite on november 2	Talarico	SELL	20	75¢	$15	0x50b05a…
10-16 10:08:01	texas senate favorite on november 2	Talarico	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xaec7e0…
10-16 09:38:37	husted flips brown for ohio senate by november 2	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x8baa44…
10-16 09:12:39	osborn flips ricketts for nebraska senate by november 2	Yes	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0xe6779b…
10-16 09:08:30	husted flips brown for ohio senate by november 2	Yes	SELL	20	31¢	$6	0x846d68…
10-16 09:07:45	husted flips brown for ohio senate by november 2	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xd6176e…
10-16 08:59:01	osborn flips ricketts for nebraska senate by november 2	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x7be71b…
10-16 08:56:16	will micron q1 dram revenue be above 46b	No	SELL	20	37¢	$7	0x833016…
10-16 08:53:18	will saba be nominated for best animated short film at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	13	26¢	$3	0x1e037e…
10-16 08:52:52	will saba be nominated for best animated short film at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	5	25¢	$1	0x546d2d…
10-16 08:52:18	will saba be nominated for best animated short film at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0x029c5b…
10-16 08:47:31	sullivan flips peltola for alaska senate by november 2	Yes	SELL	20	26¢	$5	0xc10836…
10-16 08:43:01	sullivan flips peltola for alaska senate by november 2	Yes	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x0308ae…
10-16 08:41:18	will argentinas monthly inflation in october 2026 be between 1pt9 and 2pt1	Yes	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x5748d7…
10-16 08:33:46	will booking bkng q3 gross bookings be above 20261008120126000 51b	Yes	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0x9bbb2a…
10-16 04:54:42	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in October?	Yes	SELL	17	33¢	$6	0x487246…
10-16 03:16:13	Will Meta be the #2 AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	25¢	$5	0x9f3105…
10-16 01:47:42	will iran target an arab country by october 22 2026 20261015	Yes	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x439fd0…
10-16 01:09:37	will the birthday gift be nominated for best live action short film at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	No	SELL	20	73¢	$15	0xb9152c…
10-16 00:55:18	will the man that i wave at be nominated for best live action short film at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	12	27¢	$3	0x380ec2…
10-16 00:33:04	will the man that i wave at be nominated for best live action short film at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x05fe23…
10-16 00:33:03	Will Meta be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x80eead…
10-16 00:32:45	will the man that i wave at be nominated for best live action short film at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0xf26e6e…
10-16 00:12:25	will spilled milk be nominated for best live action short film at the 99th academy awards 20261013180153422	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xee3b42…