Stable-Holiday — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$677

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

71.0%

Resolved

2,762

Trades

7,483

lifetime

Volume

$36.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$48

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-29

last 10-12 01:03

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 56 days

Categories

Crypto

99% 72% -$621

Other

1% 25% -$56

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

30 active days in 12wk • peak 118 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
US recession by end of 2026?	No		+48	$44	96¢	$46	+$2	07-10 20:03
US recession by end of 2026?	Yes		+48	$5	4¢	$2	-$2	07-15 01:11

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 21:15 UTC	221	$551	1,046	0	+1,046	Down	-$20	07-15 21:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 16:35 UTC	202	$500	938	0	+938	Up	-$45	07-20 16:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 21:45 UTC	207	$497	927	0	+927	Up	-$28	07-18 21:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 17:35 UTC	198	$446	909	0	+909	Up	-$7	07-15 17:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 21:40 UTC	184	$392	775	0	+775	Down	+$2	07-18 21:44
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-07 21:55 UTC	472	$369	1,935	0	+1,935	Down	-$369	07-07 21:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 16:05 UTC	133	$312	580	0	+580	Up	-$18	07-17 16:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 14:50 UTC	146	$287	621	0	+621	Down	+$8	07-15 14:54
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 20:05 UTC	103	$238	453	0	+453	Down	-$3	07-17 20:09
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 17:25 UTC	99	$223	433	3	+430	Up	-$3	07-20 17:29
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-18 21:30 UTC	91	$207	401	0	+401	Down	-$2	07-18 21:34
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 19:55 UTC	81	$179	369	0	+369	Down	-$9	07-15 19:59
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 12:35 UTC	86	$171	359	0	+359	Up	+$6	07-15 12:39
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 17:10 UTC	74	$158	330	0	+330	Down	-$13	07-15 17:13
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 19:05 UTC	65	$153	300	11	+289	Down	+$1	07-15 19:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET	67	$149	320	0	+320	Down	+$11	07-20 17:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 16:45 UTC	61	$149	295	15	+280	Up	-$6	07-15 16:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 16:00 UTC	32	$118	150	0	+150	Down	-$23	07-15 16:02
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 19:05 UTC	45	$114	206	0	+206	Down	+$3	07-17 19:08
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 21:50 UTC	46	$111	222	0	+222	Up	-$14	07-15 21:50
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 22:15 UTC	43	$110	212	0	+212	Up	-$18	07-15 22:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 18:45 UTC	53	$107	197	0	+197	Up	-$2	07-17 18:47
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 18:20 UTC	40	$105	206	16	+190	Up	-$3	07-15 18:23
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 18:15 UTC	45	$104	205	5	+200	Down	+$0	07-20 18:18
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET	2	$95	50	50	+0	Up	+$4	07-02 17:24
Will the next Mythos-Class model be released on September 1, 2026?	2	$94	50	50	+0	Yes	+$0	09-01 17:41
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-17 18:55 UTC	37	$94	169	0	+169	Down	-$1	07-17 18:58
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 01:15 UTC	33	$93	130	0	+130	Down	-$18	07-15 01:18
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 12:10 UTC	41	$87	180	0	+180	Up	-$2	07-15 12:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-15 01:30 UTC	28	$84	135	0	+135	Down	-$9	07-15 01:33

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-12 01:03:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET	Up	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x6d3d67…
10-12 00:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xc41e98…
10-12 00:28:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	12	92¢	$11	0x85b007…
10-12 00:23:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Up	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xc1a02c…
10-12 00:18:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET	Down	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xfee542…
10-12 00:13:53	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x370169…
10-11 23:48:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0xc1ff2c…
10-11 23:43:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x473af0…
10-11 23:28:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x8fa509…
10-11 22:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET	Up	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0x5f02fd…
10-11 22:23:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET	Down	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0xa9b84a…
10-11 22:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	13	87¢	$11	0xb5d954…
10-11 21:43:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET	Up	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x158c74…
10-11 21:18:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Down	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0x3e4451…
10-11 21:13:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Down	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x59af29…
10-11 21:08:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	Down	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x63ef3b…
10-11 21:03:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Up	BUY	13	83¢	$11	0x345cc6…
10-11 20:58:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET	Down	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x4c00ef…
10-11 20:53:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Down	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0xd3db28…
10-11 20:39:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET	Up	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x5e1c92…
10-11 20:33:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	BUY	12	90¢	$11	0x8e5e58…
10-11 20:23:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Down	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xfee992…
10-11 19:48:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x842cba…
10-11 19:43:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET	Down	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0x4d4264…
10-11 19:29:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET	Down	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x4af5d6…
10-11 19:19:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET	Up	BUY	16	68¢	$11	0xce8d21…
10-11 19:13:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x645a67…
10-11 19:08:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET	Down	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x2d95ea…
10-11 18:33:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET	Down	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0xd73248…
10-11 18:18:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xe47720…
10-11 17:38:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET	Up	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0x02058a…
10-11 16:53:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET	Up	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0xbe4b33…
10-11 16:48:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET	Up	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0xaa0008…
10-11 15:39:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x16e0e1…
10-11 15:23:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET	Up	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0x1c04a0…
10-11 14:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x8e955e…
10-11 14:38:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-11 14:35 UTC	Up	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x383e34…
10-11 14:28:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x4a1648…
10-11 14:18:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Up	BUY	13	82¢	$11	0xacc3e7…
10-11 14:13:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Down	BUY	14	78¢	$11	0x57e237…
10-11 13:48:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-11 13:45 UTC	Down	BUY	7	96¢	$7	0xada150…
10-11 13:38:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0xfbc017…
10-11 13:29:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET	Up	BUY	13	83¢	$11	0x58916a…
10-11 13:23:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-11 13:20 UTC	Down	BUY	12	89¢	$11	0x780443…
10-11 13:19:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-11 13:15 UTC	Up	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x54378f…
10-11 13:13:48	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-11 13:10 UTC	Up	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xc18915…
10-11 13:08:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET	Down	BUY	12	93¢	$11	0x15ad24…
10-11 12:53:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET	Down	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x133e2a…
10-11 12:48:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET	Down	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xc5df98…
10-11 12:23:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET	Down	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x8cfa9f…
10-11 12:18:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET	Down	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0x517653…
10-11 12:13:51	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-10-11 12:10 UTC	Up	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x1e6607…
10-11 11:53:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET	Up	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x29883d…
10-11 11:44:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET	Up	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x84d7e2…
10-11 11:38:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET	Down	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0xec7291…
10-11 11:34:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET	Down	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0x7f99e2…
10-11 11:23:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET	Up	BUY	12	94¢	$11	0xf03a1b…
10-11 11:18:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	Up	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x3bb1e2…
10-11 11:13:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x8b71ca…
10-11 11:08:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET	Up	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0xe5acc6…
10-11 11:03:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET	Up	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x309aad…
10-11 10:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x8e6d65…
10-11 10:48:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Up	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0x6ce94e…
10-11 10:44:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	Down	BUY	14	78¢	$11	0x57fbb3…
10-11 10:38:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Down	BUY	12	88¢	$11	0xd86a67…
10-11 10:33:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET	Down	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x353ef9…
10-11 10:28:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Down	BUY	11	96¢	$11	0xacb269…
10-11 10:13:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xb7696c…
10-11 09:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x1926fe…
10-11 09:33:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Down	BUY	12	95¢	$11	0xad6df3…
10-11 09:29:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Down	BUY	13	82¢	$11	0xd87349…
10-11 09:03:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Down	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x43c75b…
10-11 08:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	14	80¢	$11	0x973d98…
10-11 08:54:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET	Down	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x0dc383…
10-11 08:38:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET	Up	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x4b194e…
10-11 08:28:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	12	91¢	$11	0xf57829…
10-11 08:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	2	96¢	$1	0xb21111…
10-11 07:13:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET	Down	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x400ab8…
10-11 07:08:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x255c78…
10-11 06:58:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x86e0b3…
10-11 06:48:50	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET	Up	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x0d9e52…
10-11 06:28:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xe56ecb…
10-11 06:23:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET	Down	BUY	13	86¢	$11	0x1b21e5…
10-11 05:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x499634…
10-11 05:48:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET	Down	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0xdab72b…
10-11 05:44:02	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET	Up	BUY	8	81¢	$7	0xcab0dc…
10-11 05:38:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET	Down	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xceed12…
10-11 05:33:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET	Up	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x4e189e…
10-11 05:18:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET	Up	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xeca5b1…
10-11 04:58:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x2b4f27…
10-11 04:43:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Up	BUY	12	90¢	$11	0x763506…
10-11 04:38:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET	Up	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x88cb9c…
10-11 04:28:47	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET	Up	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0xf849ef…
10-11 04:18:56	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	Up	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x173ac2…
10-11 03:59:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x5811a6…
10-11 03:43:51	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Down	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x98205d…
10-11 03:33:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET	Up	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0xfc1b3b…
10-11 03:28:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET	Up	BUY	11	100¢	$11	0x5e5f69…
10-11 03:18:59	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET	Down	BUY	11	99¢	$11	0x06fc26…
10-11 03:08:48	Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	Down	BUY	11	97¢	$11	0x9b275a…