Realized P&L
-$361
Unrealized P&L
-$11
Hit rate
21.2%
Resolved
478
Trades
2,725
lifetime
Volume
$23.9K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$9
Open exposure
$614
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-06
last 10-26 16:23
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 20 days
Categories
Other
79% 35% -$126
Politics
14% 9% -$57
Tech
5% 0% -$26
Sports
1% 0% -$150
Crypto
0% 0% -$2
Pop-Culture
0% 0% -$1
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
17 active days in 12wk • peak 378 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? No +80 $65 96¢ $77 +$12 10-06 15:51
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No +88 $46 80¢ $70 +$23 10-07 06:39
US imports Russian diesel by November 30? Yes +78 $33 88¢ $68 +$35 10-18 06:32
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? No +80 $44 80¢ $64 +$20 10-07 18:43
will russia capture orikhiv by march 31 2027 No +69 $38 72¢ $50 +$11 10-13 00:16
ilhan omar federally charged by december 31 2026 No +40 $30 70¢ $28 -$2 10-13 12:35
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%? No +20 $17 99¢ $20 +$2 10-10 02:01
ilhan omar federally charged by october 31 2026 No +20 $19 96¢ $19 +$0 10-12 18:17
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? No +20 $15 96¢ $19 +$4 10-08 00:06
will russia capture orikhiv by march 31 2027 Yes +69 $31 28¢ $19 -$12 10-13 00:16
US strike on Colombia by December 31? Yes +88 $43 20¢ $18 -$25 10-08 16:14
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? No +20 $10 83¢ $17 +$7 10-07 21:55
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31? Yes +80 $36 20¢ $16 -$20 10-07 18:43
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? No +20 $11 77¢ $15 +$4 10-13 12:52
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027? No +20 $5 76¢ $15 +$10 10-07 17:07
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027? No +20 $14 72¢ $14 +$1 10-10 01:37
ilhan omar federally charged by december 31 2026 Yes +40 $12 30¢ $12 $0 10-12 18:17
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? Yes +20 $16 51¢ $10 -$6 10-07 18:18
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? No +20 $10 50¢ $10 $0 10-07 19:08
Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30? Yes +20 $10 50¢ $10 $0 10-07 19:08
Will the 5-year Treasury yield hit 5.10% before 2027? No +20 $4 49¢ $10 +$6 10-07 18:18
us imports russian diesel by november 30 No +78 $47 12¢ $10 -$37 10-15 04:59
Iran coup attempt by December 31, 2027? Yes +20 $9 28¢ $6 -$3 10-10 02:10
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027? Yes +20 $15 24¢ $5 -$10 10-07 17:06
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher? Yes +20 $10 23¢ $5 -$5 10-13 12:06
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by November 30? Yes +20 $9 17¢ $3 -$5 10-07 22:12
Russia pneumonic plague spreads abroad? Yes +80 $16 4¢ $3 -$13 10-06 15:51
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by October 31? Yes +20 $5 4¢ $1 -$4 10-08 00:06
ilhan omar federally charged by october 31 2026 Yes +20 $2 4¢ $1 -$1 10-12 18:17
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%? Yes +20 $3 1¢ $0 -$2 10-10 03:32