Fast-Thunderhead — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$102

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

94.0%

Resolved

167

Trades

222

lifetime

Volume

$13.6K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$61

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-01-06

last 10-31 16:15

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 52 days

Categories

Politics

53% 89% +$28

Other

30% 100% +$42

Crypto

15% 100% +$25

Sports

2% 100% +$6

Tech

1% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No		+15	$11	58¢	$9	-$2	10-27 19:01
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes		-260	-$2	0¢	$-1	+$1	06-05 01:46

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	6	$1.4K	718	718	+0	No	+$19	10-28 11:44
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	3	$986	746	363	+383	Yes	+$7	10-25 23:58
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	3	$738	392	361	+31	Yes	-$11	10-29 15:16
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	2	$688	376	376	+0	No	+$4	10-18 14:47
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	2	$644	338	338	+0	No	+$1	09-01 05:41
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	3	$642	328	328	+0	No	+$6	08-29 02:57
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	2	$440	223	223	+0	Yes	+$0	10-04 21:58
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	2	$393	317	317	+0	open	—	10-17 12:09
us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	1	$348	351	0	+351	No	+$4	09-04 12:53
Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch	1	$340	341	0	+341	No	+$0	09-17 17:52
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	1	$339	341	0	+341	Yes	+$2	09-18 02:47
Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	1	$330	333	0	+333	Yes	+$3	08-18 17:43
LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$329	335	0	+335	Yes	+$6	09-10 14:22
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	1	$328	332	0	+332	No	+$4	08-14 14:36
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	1	$326	327	0	+327	No	+$0	08-22 11:41
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	1	$319	330	0	+330	No	+$11	08-12 10:11
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	1	$318	319	0	+319	No	+$1	08-11 19:22
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	2	$318	321	0	+321	No	+$3	08-10 19:33
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	2	$307	159	159	+0	No	+$0	08-26 16:40
Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	4	$306	156	156	+0	open	—	09-30 15:46
squid fdv above 150m one day after launch 822	1	$303	304	0	+304	No	+$0	08-05 18:20
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	2	$302	304	0	+304	No	+$3	08-05 01:17
us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	1	$300	315	0	+315	No	+$15	08-07 21:28
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$290	296	0	+296	No	+$6	06-26 03:15
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	2	$287	157	157	+0	open	—	10-04 03:50
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$231	241	0	+241	Yes	+$10	05-25 14:50
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	1	$220	221	0	+221	No	+$1	05-30 10:45
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	1	$154	154	0	+154	No	+$0	10-01 01:56
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	1	$133	138	0	+138	No	+$5	05-19 10:42
GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	1	$118	120	0	+120	Yes	+$2	07-30 12:29

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 16:15:13	Will OpenAI be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x50dc92…
10-29 15:16:07	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	361	99¢	$356	0xd08347…
10-29 09:16:31	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	376	98¢	$369	0xa3c852…
10-28 11:44:01	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	373	97¢	$362	0x29f48b…
10-28 06:57:01	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	373	96¢	$358	0x8fcc52…
10-28 04:21:28	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x258cd6…
10-28 04:20:07	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	240	96¢	$230	0x6f8f31…
10-28 04:19:50	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	95	96¢	$91	0xf38de9…
10-28 04:19:49	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	SELL	10	96¢	$10	0x3c5a05…
10-28 04:19:17	Will Solana reach $200 in October?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0x695955…
10-27 21:55:56	Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	346	91¢	$315	0xcffda4…
10-27 19:01:36	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	15	74¢	$11	0x5e5ff0…
10-27 17:04:26	Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	16	86¢	$14	0xa90625…
10-27 16:50:15	Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	18	74¢	$13	0xb9130d…
10-25 23:58:59	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	383	99¢	$380	0xb1327d…
10-18 14:47:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	376	92¢	$346	0x5d8f49…
10-18 02:13:45	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	376	91¢	$342	0xf4c3e8…
10-17 12:09:20	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	SELL	317	62¢	$197	0xb91f7f…
10-14 11:43:53	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	317	62¢	$197	0x0223ab…
10-13 02:58:48	Gemini 4.0 released by November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	97¢	$1	0x4f248b…
10-11 15:46:06	Will OpenAI be the third-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xf9fdf5…
10-10 01:05:05	Will Solana reach $200 in October?	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x102862…
10-05 10:50:50	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	363	84¢	$305	0x18b815…
10-05 09:09:49	Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October?	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xbd999c…
10-05 04:24:26	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	363	83¢	$301	0xd64646…
10-04 21:58:10	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	SELL	223	99¢	$220	0x32dfa5…
10-04 03:50:23	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	SELL	157	92¢	$145	0x97d521…
10-03 18:22:29	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Yes	BUY	223	98¢	$220	0x2bcfb9…
10-01 01:56:42	US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	154	100¢	$154	0xd5fa55…
09-30 17:24:35	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	No	BUY	65	99¢	$65	0x2aeebd…
09-30 15:46:26	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	SELL	156	99¢	$154	0x6d70bd…
09-30 14:06:53	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	SELL	19	100¢	$19	0xd411c7…
09-29 11:48:56	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$15	0x10a0fe…
09-29 11:46:48	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in september 2026	No	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x7d13c8…
09-28 21:58:39	Will Ethereum reach $4,000 in September?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0xa10f6e…
09-28 15:07:14	Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	No	BUY	157	91¢	$143	0x017f2a…
09-24 07:27:26	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	94	98¢	$93	0x9063f4…
09-24 04:05:11	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	1	98¢	$1	0x231576…
09-24 01:29:58	Variational FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	60	98¢	$59	0x76ae51…
09-23 10:32:47	will bitcoin dip to 57pt5k in september 2026	No	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0x990c16…
09-22 11:42:43	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$18	0x927e92…
09-18 21:18:51	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	3	100¢	$3	0xd2a157…
09-18 17:35:40	Will Solana dip to $20 in September?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7b41f5…
09-18 12:22:08	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	SELL	13	100¢	$13	0xd33c93…
09-18 02:47:40	Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	341	100¢	$339	0x038731…
09-17 17:52:31	Tread FDV above $150M one day after launch	No	BUY	341	100¢	$340	0xaf0ea6…
09-10 18:41:00	LAPTOP FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	9	99¢	$9	0x443989…
09-10 14:22:12	LAPTOP FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	335	98¢	$329	0x5fb26a…
09-10 10:40:36	Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	No	BUY	17	100¢	$17	0xf41a32…
09-04 12:53:40	us announces end of iranian blockade by september 7 2026	No	BUY	351	99¢	$348	0x23b2fc…
09-01 05:41:52	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	No	SELL	338	95¢	$322	0x4d7cb0…
08-30 16:47:34	Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xb247a8…
08-29 13:27:54	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 15?	No	BUY	338	95¢	$321	0xd1972e…
08-29 02:57:36	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	SELL	328	99¢	$324	0x2a50f0…
08-26 18:46:18	Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 in August?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3dd45a…
08-26 16:49:48	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	163	96¢	$157	0x2dfd55…
08-26 16:40:27	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	SELL	159	97¢	$153	0x5e27a4…
08-24 18:01:34	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	No	BUY	164	98¢	$161	0xc2ec1b…
08-24 06:11:13	US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	BUY	159	97¢	$153	0xa53592…
08-23 18:03:07	Will Xiaomi be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	11	100¢	$10	0xb7d707…
08-22 11:41:58	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 22 2026	No	BUY	327	100¢	$326	0x4d2821…
08-21 18:13:04	will nvda dip to 152 in august 2026	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xa79d84…
08-19 01:28:24	Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcc7031…
08-18 17:43:57	Will Byron Donalds be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?	Yes	BUY	333	99¢	$330	0xbf42d0…
08-15 22:41:37	will wti dip to 55 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x50e4ac…
08-14 21:00:37	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 14 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x22b688…
08-14 16:37:16	will wti reach 150 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xa17fb4…
08-14 14:36:01	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 15 2026 20260713152715083 347 987 697 628 574 676	No	BUY	332	99¢	$328	0x14bf4f…
08-13 06:47:09	will wti dip to 55 in august 2026	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x22ef51…
08-12 10:11:06	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 13 2026	No	BUY	330	97¢	$319	0x48ca03…
08-11 19:22:54	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 11 2026	No	BUY	319	100¢	$318	0x6c4959…
08-10 19:33:34	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0x7ea101…
08-10 10:46:31	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 10 2026	No	BUY	318	99¢	$315	0xae2bb2…
08-07 23:43:43	us x iran diplomatic meeting by august 7 2026	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xef09c9…
08-07 21:28:24	us announces end of iranian blockade by august 7 2026 20260727171523690	No	BUY	315	95¢	$300	0x1ec85b…
08-07 09:46:03	Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?	No	BUY	3	100¢	$3	0xc9f5b1…
08-05 18:20:48	squid fdv above 150m one day after launch 822	No	BUY	304	100¢	$303	0xf1e360…
08-05 01:17:23	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	190	100¢	$189	0x56a46f…
08-04 08:39:03	Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	No	BUY	115	98¢	$113	0x19d8a3…
07-31 02:09:14	will spy dip to 700 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xcbd0e4…
07-31 00:35:33	will xauusd reach 4300 in july 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdfb3b6…
07-30 12:29:54	GRVT FDV above $100M one day after launch?	Yes	BUY	120	99¢	$118	0xfc1d55…
07-30 01:09:54	will xauusd dip to 3700 in july 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x17b608…
07-29 17:08:56	grvt fdv above 150m one day after launch	Yes	BUY	57	93¢	$53	0xff2533…
07-26 23:11:03	Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0x3d1e8e…
07-26 03:38:58	will xagusd dip to 46 in july 2026	No	BUY	9	100¢	$9	0xaf760a…
07-25 07:59:42	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$8	0x6f96c3…
07-25 02:39:36	will xauusd dip to 3600 in july 2026	No	BUY	10	100¢	$9	0x35c0c8…
07-23 09:44:21	will xagusd dip to 46 in july 2026	No	BUY	12	100¢	$12	0xd39ae8…
07-22 08:24:45	will spy dip to 670 in july 2026	No	BUY	7	100¢	$7	0x37b317…
07-21 23:43:24	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0xcb610a…
07-21 15:23:03	will wti reach 120 in july 2026	No	BUY	7	99¢	$7	0x22e010…
07-20 14:01:19	will xauusd dip to 3400 in july 2026	No	BUY	8	100¢	$7	0x56eba7…
07-17 05:09:15	will xauusd reach 4600 in july 2026	No	BUY	5	99¢	$5	0xeb7843…
07-03 18:29:47	Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	15	99¢	$15	0xa8d135…
06-29 17:57:35	Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?	No	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0x7dd419…
06-29 12:44:59	will wti dip to 60 in june 2026 371 314 412	No	BUY	15	100¢	$15	0x30e309…
06-29 07:49:32	will nvda dip to 160 in june 2026	No	BUY	21	100¢	$21	0x920dfb…
06-29 07:33:41	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	BUY	36	99¢	$35	0x225b55…
06-29 04:47:52	will ng dip to 3 00 in june 2026	No	BUY	37	99¢	$37	0xe55f05…