Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.65K

Unrealized P&L

-$78

Hit rate

58.8%

Resolved

818

Trades

6,076

lifetime

Volume

$56.8K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$463

16 positions

First seen

2026-10-23

last 11-01 02:58

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 9 days

Categories

Other

81% 48% -$1,598

Politics

17% 45% -$55

Tech

1% 55% -$11

Crypto

1% 67% +$12

Pop-Culture

0% 33% $0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 1043 trades/day

Open positions (16) Resolved markets (19) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	+193	$133	72¢	$139	+$6	10-31 17:17
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	Yes	+338	$113	28¢	$95	-$18	10-31 20:16
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	+75	$58	70¢	$52	-$5	10-26 09:52
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	Yes	+45	$28	99¢	$45	+$17	10-25 22:02
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	+60	$41	69¢	$41	+$0	10-26 09:52
Will Dejan Šoškić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	+60	$49	40¢	$24	-$25	10-25 20:09
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	+45	$12	30¢	$14	+$2	10-26 10:44
Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	+44	$17	31¢	$14	-$3	10-26 10:44
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	Yes	+50	$16	26¢	$13	-$3	10-29 19:03
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	+100	$29	11¢	$11	-$18	10-31 02:34
Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?	Yes	+50	$8	15¢	$8	-$1	11-01 00:02
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?	No	+8	$5	74¢	$6	+$1	10-29 19:01
Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?	Yes	+20	$4	11¢	$2	-$2	10-28 06:41
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026?	No	+50	$23	1¢	$0	-$22	10-25 22:39
Will Otzma win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Yes	+20	$6	0¢	$0	-$6	10-26 23:00
Will Otzma win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	+0	$0	2¢	$0	$0	10-26 23:24

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	33	$525	1,015	14	+1,001	No	+$4	10-30 11:30
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	19	$387	760	0	+760	open	—	11-01 03:35
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	8	$377	723	0	+723	Yes	-$47	10-25 10:10
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	29	$310	493	93	+400	No	+$73	10-30 20:10
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	20	$303	647	0	+647	open	—	10-31 19:21
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 2–4%?	5	$295	592	0	+592	No	+$5	10-25 21:55
Will "You Can See Everything" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between $19.5M and $21M?	28	$291	484	36	+449	No	+$5	10-27 00:16
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	31	$270	508	23	+486	Yes	+$17	10-30 20:10
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 30?	19	$266	453	0	+453	No	-$100	10-29 08:15
Will Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	10	$251	339	96	+243	open	—	10-26 10:03
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	14	$246	531	0	+531	open	—	10-31 20:16
Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 14m?	20	$236	467	0	+467	open	—	10-31 02:29
Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more?	10	$214	416	0	+416	open	—	11-01 01:23
Will S&P Global (SPGI) beat quarterly earnings?	9	$210	391	0	+391	Yes	+$30	10-25 22:57
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	7	$202	490	0	+490	open	—	11-01 01:39
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?	11	$202	390	0	+390	open	—	10-31 09:52
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on October 30, 2026?	23	$201	394	0	+394	No	-$1	10-29 08:26
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	16	$191	544	0	+544	No	-$41	10-27 15:16
Will commitments to the 1W public sale exceed $50M?	13	$186	210	90	+120	Yes	+$51	10-30 15:56
Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of October 2026?	15	$184	280	40	+240	open	—	10-31 17:02
Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?	24	$180	349	0	+349	open	—	11-01 00:08
Will Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.8% and 1.1%?	18	$173	293	0	+293	No	-$93	10-30 00:00
Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	18	$172	378	0	+378	Yes	-$22	10-30 04:49
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on October 26?	19	$170	203	57	+147	No	+$13	10-26 15:47
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	9	$167	359	0	+359	No	-$36	10-27 16:00
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.4% in September?	16	$166	319	0	+319	No	-$6	10-23 20:34
Will Hilton Grand Vacations (HGV) beat quarterly earnings?	7	$162	242	40	+202	Yes	+$19	10-29 11:35
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 27?	17	$159	190	57	+133	Yes	+$20	10-27 08:12
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	5	$155	320	0	+320	No	+$5	10-26 03:10
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Nevada gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	12	$155	354	0	+354	open	—	10-30 08:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 03:41:30	Will Democrats win Latino men in the midterms?	No	BUY	7	21¢	$2	0xf855b8…
11-01 03:37:39	Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between -1.6% and -0.8%?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0xf75d99…
11-01 03:37:39	Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between -1.6% and -0.8%?	Yes	BUY	10	14¢	$1	0x019d4c…
11-01 03:36:52	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on November 2?	No	BUY	4	68¢	$3	0x8585c3…
11-01 03:35:30	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	BUY	26	73¢	$19	0xfe896b…
11-01 03:35:12	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 OR-01 House election by 45%-50%?	Yes	BUY	20	31¢	$6	0x61d528…
11-01 03:34:48	will thriller michael jackson be the 2 us song this week november 6	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0xef0465…
11-01 03:32:40	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	43¢	$9	0x4a0a84…
11-01 03:29:33	Will Japan Q3 GDP growth (annualized) be between 0.8% and 1.6%?	Yes	BUY	13	31¢	$4	0x4e873c…
11-01 03:23:00	Will the Bank of Israel increase the Bank of Israel Interest Rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	No	BUY	20	61¢	$12	0x633bce…
11-01 03:18:25	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	No	BUY	85	74¢	$63	0x44b404…
11-01 03:01:22	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on November 1?	No	SELL	13	99¢	$12	0xe4e14c…
11-01 03:01:01	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on November 1?	No	SELL	5	99¢	$5	0x650dce…
11-01 03:00:42	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 17°C on November 1?	No	SELL	25	99¢	$25	0x750b0b…
11-01 02:58:46	Will PP win the most seats in Santa Cruz de Tenerife in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	53¢	$11	0x68e1b6…
11-01 02:55:25	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on November 1?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x052f03…
11-01 02:55:12	Will PP win the most seats in Santa Cruz de Tenerife in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0xdd083f…
11-01 02:55:12	McDonald's (MCD) Q3 global comparable sales growth 1% to 2%?	Yes	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0x0bbed7…
11-01 02:54:34	Will OpenAI’s valuation be at least $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xbfd556…
11-01 02:46:48	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	No	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0xc9db66…
11-01 02:44:12	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x273eae…
11-01 02:43:45	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election by 3%-6%?	Yes	BUY	38	30¢	$11	0x21f08d…
11-01 02:41:18	Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #2 US song this week?	Yes	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0x289240…
11-01 02:28:19	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Iowa gubernatorial election by 6%-9%?	Yes	BUY	50	27¢	$14	0x5144b1…
11-01 02:25:18	Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #2 US song this week?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0xe0ddc5…
11-01 02:23:03	Will Democrats win Latino men in the midterms?	Yes	BUY	20	78¢	$16	0x413d39…
11-01 02:19:28	Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	21¢	$4	0x096bb3…
11-01 02:11:48	Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x80f2eb…
11-01 02:11:48	Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x339440…
11-01 02:08:28	Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #2 US song this week?	No	BUY	1	48¢	$0	0xf040a4…
11-01 02:08:28	Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #2 US song this week?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x9fa497…
11-01 02:00:24	Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 14°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xc4cc3a…
11-01 01:57:09	Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	42¢	$4	0x552905…
11-01 01:56:30	Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xfda3c1…
11-01 01:53:55	Will PSOE win the most seats in Las Palmas in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	41¢	$8	0x6b5265…
11-01 01:50:45	Will CZ post 40-59 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xee2609…
11-01 01:49:16	Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x514e66…
11-01 01:48:22	Will Ted Cruz post 200+ posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	No	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xa09803…
11-01 01:44:15	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x53dc8c…
11-01 01:39:57	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	BUY	60	67¢	$40	0xd69194…
11-01 01:30:58	Will Democrats win the Ohio and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	20	74¢	$15	0x580bb8…
11-01 01:23:58	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on November 2?	No	BUY	8	40¢	$3	0xfbe1e4…
11-01 01:23:28	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 900,000 and 975,000?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x7a9350…
11-01 01:23:16	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more?	No	BUY	80	20¢	$16	0xba9850…
11-01 01:21:06	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on November 2?	No	BUY	20	77¢	$15	0xe0f15f…
11-01 01:20:45	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Maine be between 700,000 and 750,000?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0xab0934…
11-01 01:17:12	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	20	76¢	$15	0x99f945…
11-01 01:12:15	Will the Michigan Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x232c41…
11-01 01:09:07	Will Democrats win exactly 1 House seat in Tennessee in the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	20	86¢	$17	0xbb68fb…
11-01 01:02:45	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from Arkansas be between 900,000 and 975,000?	Yes	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x7c416b…
11-01 00:59:51	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on November 2?	Yes	BUY	11	39¢	$4	0xab50a1…
11-01 00:58:22	Will the Republicans win Sedgwick County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	20	81¢	$16	0x7b83bf…
11-01 00:52:34	Will Democrats win the Michigan and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	20	67¢	$13	0x35288a…
11-01 00:50:03	Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 70-71°F on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	46¢	$9	0x1b4679…
11-01 00:44:57	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 0%-3%?	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0x520e8b…
11-01 00:43:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	BUY	59	74¢	$44	0x48e142…
11-01 00:43:36	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x247458…
11-01 00:41:36	Will OpenAI’s valuation be between $1.20T and $1.30T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0xfa022b…
11-01 00:35:13	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	30¢	$5	0xde8f69…
11-01 00:30:16	Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on November 2?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x76a38c…
11-01 00:19:24	Will there be more than 13 earthquakes of 5.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	Yes	BUY	17	77¢	$13	0x37e195…
11-01 00:14:33	Will there be 0 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	BUY	8	15¢	$1	0x6d95c7…
11-01 00:12:48	Will Democrats win Latino men in the midterms?	No	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0x9ffcdc…
11-01 00:10:36	Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 18°C on November 2?	No	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0x4f7228…
11-01 00:10:36	Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x4efcd8…
11-01 00:08:10	Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x21ceb3…
11-01 00:07:54	Will the Democrats win Denton County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x9455ea…
11-01 00:07:54	Will the Democrats win Denton County in the Texas Senate race in 2026?	No	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x348aaf…
11-01 00:05:30	Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on November 2?	No	BUY	19	60¢	$11	0xcf97f2…
11-01 00:04:58	Will UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 0.6% and 0.7%?	Yes	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x82b3aa…
11-01 00:04:51	Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	5	54¢	$3	0x101e9d…
11-01 00:02:37	Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	55¢	$11	0x35fbdd…
11-01 00:02:00	Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	16¢	$8	0xacb8d7…
11-01 00:01:09	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 2?	No	BUY	20	64¢	$13	0x05079a…
11-01 00:00:28	Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0x4ee07d…
10-31 23:58:03	Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on October 31?	No	SELL	60	99¢	$59	0x742e73…
10-31 23:57:10	Republican House odds dip to 6% by November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	66¢	$13	0xcea27d…
10-31 23:56:22	Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 60-61°F on October 31?	No	SELL	20	99¢	$20	0xc3d34e…
10-31 23:56:04	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on November 2?	No	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x16038b…
10-31 23:50:27	Will CZ post 20-39 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x153d1f…
10-31 23:50:12	Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xcbe292…
10-31 23:41:39	Will "Clayface" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 10m?	No	BUY	20	87¢	$17	0xb65583…
10-31 23:32:40	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election be 24% or more?	Yes	BUY	80	77¢	$62	0xd9d93b…
10-31 23:27:46	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	1	37¢	$0	0xf0c259…
10-31 23:27:46	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	19	37¢	$7	0x9962fc…
10-31 23:24:19	Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 8°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	47¢	$9	0x389f10…
10-31 23:22:37	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xec8b7b…
10-31 23:22:37	Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	39¢	$2	0xe4a7f7…
10-31 23:22:37	McDonald's (MCD) Q3 global comparable sales growth 0% to 1%?	Yes	BUY	20	26¢	$5	0x5e7f50…
10-31 23:22:37	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x17767a…
10-31 23:22:37	Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	42¢	$2	0x093dbd…
10-31 23:16:54	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NC-12 House election by 50%-55%?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x4228de…
10-31 23:12:16	Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on November 2?	No	BUY	3	63¢	$2	0x944095…
10-31 23:08:24	Will the lowest temperature in Warsaw be 5°C on October 31?	No	SELL	19	99¢	$19	0x3f8b19…
10-31 23:03:28	Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on November 2?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x662989…
10-31 23:02:45	Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	8	45¢	$4	0x33cc64…
10-31 23:00:09	Republican House odds dip to 6% by November 1?	No	BUY	20	45¢	$9	0x34a36a…
10-31 22:54:19	Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0x9d9f8f…
10-31 22:50:10	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 13°C on November 2?	Yes	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0xa8ae84…
10-31 22:43:46	Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on November 2?	No	BUY	20	59¢	$12	0xf026fe…