Will the Republican Party hold 190 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
open
Total volume
$1,943
$121 in 24h
Trades
178
Unique wallets
49
Liquidity
$20,877
End date
2026-11-04
First seen
2026-10-23
last 10-26 21:21
YES price (mid)
last 60 days, hourly
Not enough snapshot data yet — the snapshot daemon polls every 5 min.
Cohort breakdown
who's buying — by wallet tier
SMI:
-60.5¢
(top1%: 0% YES on $110
vs crowd: 60% YES on $1.8K)
By volume tier
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🐋 Whale | 21 | $52 | $521 | $469 |
| 🐬 Dolphin | 9 | $493 | $43 | +$449 |
| 🐟 Fish | 15 | $496 | $132 | +$364 |
| 🦐 Shrimp | 4 | $25 | — | +$25 |
By P&L percentile
| Tier | Wallets | YES buy | NO buy | Net bias |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🎯 Top 1% | 9 | — | $110 | $110 |
| 🏆 Top 5% | 11 | $823 | $96 | +$728 |
| Median | 2 | $12 | $6 | +$6 |
| Below median | 8 | $90 | $33 | +$57 |
| ⚠️ Bottom 10% | 2 | $49 | $24 | +$25 |
| 🔻 Bottom 5% | 5 | $55 | $41 | +$14 |
| 💀 Bottom 1% | 12 | $37 | $387 | $351 |
SMI history (last 30d)
daily Smart-Money Index — top-1% YES-buy share minus crowd YES-buy share, in cents · positive = top-1% leans YES vs crowd
| Wallet | Side | Net shares | Cost basis | Volume | Trades | Last activity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melodic-Cria 0xf971…0a57 | No | +657 | $251 | $251 | 19 | 10-25 04:56 |
| (anonymous) 0xbceb…0049 | Yes | +581 | $354 | $354 | 18 | 10-26 00:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xfd39…9ec8 | Yes | +500 | $312 | $312 | 3 | 10-25 04:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x1387…55f8 | No | +160 | $66 | $66 | 7 | 10-24 05:31 |
| Gifted-Rancher 0xe338…64ad | Yes | +100 | $65 | $65 | 1 | 10-26 21:21 |
| (anonymous) 0xc301…66aa | No | +97 | $34 | $34 | 1 | 10-26 21:21 |
| Dense-Whip 0xbea0…e19d | Yes | +88 | $51 | $92 | 11 | 10-26 10:36 |
| Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | +85 | $34 | $34 | 4 | 10-25 00:47 |
| Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | +75 | $29 | $33 | 4 | 10-25 04:56 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | Yes | +45 | $27 | $27 | 3 | 10-24 21:56 |
| (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | No | +45 | $18 | $18 | 3 | 10-24 21:56 |
| Jealous-Bat 0x52e0…89e4 | Yes | +40 | $23 | $71 | 8 | 10-26 21:21 |
| Jealous-Bat 0x52e0…89e4 | No | +40 | $16 | $32 | 6 | 10-24 05:31 |
| (anonymous) 0xa742…9856 | No | +40 | $15 | $15 | 1 | 10-24 22:37 |
| (anonymous) 0xbb10…523d | No | +32 | $14 | $64 | 5 | 10-26 09:47 |
| Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | No | +30 | $11 | $11 | 1 | 10-26 09:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x4629…f3b1 | No | +30 | $11 | $11 | 2 | 10-25 04:56 |
| (anonymous) 0xdd23…af75 | No | +26 | $11 | $11 | 2 | 10-24 04:25 |
| (anonymous) 0xdd23…af75 | Yes | +26 | $16 | $16 | 2 | 10-24 04:25 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | Yes | +25 | $15 | $15 | 3 | 10-24 05:31 |
| Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | +20 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 10-24 21:57 |
| (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | +20 | $13 | $13 | 1 | 10-25 04:56 |
| (anonymous) 0xadb4…bc39 | Yes | +20 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 10-24 20:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xa278…3369 | No | +20 | $7 | $7 | 1 | 10-26 09:16 |
| (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | +20 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 10-25 04:56 |
| Useful-Carbohydrate 0x94e5…52be | No | +20 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 10-24 09:49 |
| (anonymous) 0xb0c8…fe7f | No | +20 | $8 | $8 | 2 | 10-24 05:26 |
| (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | No | +20 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 10-25 04:56 |
| (anonymous) 0xadb4…bc39 | No | +20 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 10-24 20:09 |
| Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | +20 | $8 | $8 | 1 | 10-24 20:09 |
| (anonymous) 0xa1b1…6a83 | No | +20 | $7 | $7 | 2 | 10-25 04:56 |
| (anonymous) 0xa1b1…6a83 | Yes | +20 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 10-25 04:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x9c2d…1b16 | No | +19 | $7 | $8 | 2 | 10-25 05:15 |
| (anonymous) 0x9c2d…1b16 | Yes | +19 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 10-25 04:56 |
| (anonymous) 0x1f6f…6b57 | Yes | +19 | $12 | $12 | 1 | 10-26 04:45 |
| (anonymous) 0x0629…501d | No | +18 | $7 | $7 | 2 | 10-26 09:16 |
| (anonymous) 0xb016…95fd | Yes | +16 | $10 | $10 | 1 | 10-26 10:36 |
| Admirable-Trust 0xfbd8…4027 | No | +15 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 10-24 05:31 |
| Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | Yes | +9 | $6 | $6 | 1 | 10-24 02:34 |
| Decisive-Ephyra 0x9efd…ad00 | No | +9 | $4 | $12 | 2 | 10-24 02:34 |
| Deserted-Bitter 0x3690…e16f | No | +8 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 10-26 00:17 |
| (anonymous) 0xf83e…4663 | No | +8 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 10-26 00:17 |
| United-Premier 0xdbe5…72da | Yes | +6 | $4 | $4 | 2 | 10-24 02:44 |
| Improbable-Dhow 0x5ae3…2aeb | Yes | +5 | $3 | $3 | 1 | 10-24 19:41 |
| (anonymous) 0x5bdf…e240 | No | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 10-24 05:31 |
| Broken-Idea 0x9f20…12c3 | No | +5 | $2 | $2 | 1 | 10-26 09:47 |
| Steel-Digging 0x1073…d8ba | Yes | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 10-24 09:49 |
| Meager-Chive 0x3955…c4b8 | Yes | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 10-24 07:04 |
| Quick-Witted-Artichoke 0xacc6…236d | Yes | +2 | $1 | $1 | 1 | 10-25 22:58 |
| Time | Wallet | Outcome | Side | Size | Price | USD | Tx |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-26 21:21:36 | Jealous-Bat 0x52e0…89e4 | Yes | SELL | 3 | 64¢ | $2 | 0xab75bd… |
| 10-26 21:21:36 | Gifted-Rancher 0xe338…64ad | Yes | BUY | 100 | 65¢ | $65 | 0xab75bd… |
| 10-26 21:21:36 | (anonymous) 0xc301…66aa | No | BUY | 97 | 35¢ | $34 | 0xab75bd… |
| 10-26 10:36:41 | Jealous-Bat 0x52e0…89e4 | Yes | SELL | 16 | 64¢ | $10 | 0x00efe0… |
| 10-26 10:36:41 | (anonymous) 0xb016…95fd | Yes | BUY | 16 | 64¢ | $10 | 0x00efe0… |
| 10-26 10:36:41 | Dense-Whip 0xbea0…e19d | Yes | SELL | 0 | 64¢ | $0 | 0x00efe0… |
| 10-26 09:47:06 | (anonymous) 0xbb10…523d | No | SELL | 5 | 37¢ | $2 | 0x7c0b13… |
| 10-26 09:47:06 | Broken-Idea 0x9f20…12c3 | No | BUY | 5 | 37¢ | $2 | 0x7c0b13… |
| 10-26 09:16:51 | Worthy-Jockey 0x7dcf…a7bd | No | BUY | 30 | 37¢ | $11 | 0xa31ebd… |
| 10-26 09:16:51 | (anonymous) 0xbb10…523d | No | SELL | 30 | 37¢ | $11 | 0xa31ebd… |
| 10-26 09:16:51 | (anonymous) 0x0629…501d | No | BUY | 13 | 37¢ | $5 | 0xfa323d… |
| 10-26 09:16:51 | (anonymous) 0xa278…3369 | No | BUY | 20 | 37¢ | $7 | 0x3a969b… |
| 10-26 09:16:51 | (anonymous) 0xbb10…523d | No | SELL | 20 | 37¢ | $7 | 0x3a969b… |
| 10-26 09:16:51 | (anonymous) 0xbb10…523d | No | SELL | 13 | 37¢ | $5 | 0xfa323d… |
| 10-26 04:45:42 | Dense-Whip 0xbea0…e19d | Yes | SELL | 19 | 64¢ | $12 | 0x212e36… |
| 10-26 04:45:42 | (anonymous) 0x1f6f…6b57 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 64¢ | $12 | 0x212e36… |
| 10-26 00:17:21 | Deserted-Bitter 0x3690…e16f | No | BUY | 8 | 38¢ | $3 | 0x685d85… |
| 10-26 00:17:21 | (anonymous) 0xf83e…4663 | No | BUY | 8 | 38¢ | $3 | 0x0e4a4f… |
| 10-26 00:17:21 | (anonymous) 0xbceb…0049 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 62¢ | $5 | 0x685d85… |
| 10-26 00:17:21 | (anonymous) 0xbceb…0049 | Yes | BUY | 8 | 62¢ | $5 | 0x0e4a4f… |
| 10-25 22:58:11 | Dense-Whip 0xbea0…e19d | Yes | SELL | 2 | 64¢ | $1 | 0xb67258… |
| 10-25 22:58:11 | Quick-Witted-Artichoke 0xacc6…236d | Yes | BUY | 2 | 64¢ | $1 | 0xb67258… |
| 10-25 05:15:20 | Dense-Whip 0xbea0…e19d | Yes | SELL | 1 | 64¢ | $0 | 0x8a0e06… |
| 10-25 05:15:20 | (anonymous) 0x9c2d…1b16 | No | SELL | 1 | 36¢ | $0 | 0x8a0e06… |
| 10-25 04:58:30 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | SELL | 11 | 37¢ | $4 | 0x9140f2… |
| 10-25 04:58:30 | (anonymous) 0x3a5b…9375 | Yes | SELL | 11 | 63¢ | $7 | 0x9140f2… |
| 10-25 04:58:30 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | SELL | 20 | 37¢ | $7 | 0x2d6fee… |
| 10-25 04:58:30 | (anonymous) 0x3a5b…9375 | Yes | SELL | 20 | 63¢ | $13 | 0x2d6fee… |
| 10-25 04:56:24 | (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | No | BUY | 20 | 38¢ | $8 | 0x8c1f42… |
| 10-25 04:56:24 | (anonymous) 0x9c2d…1b16 | Yes | BUY | 19 | 63¢ | $12 | 0x935322… |
| 10-25 04:56:24 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | BUY | 55 | 38¢ | $21 | 0x8c1f42… |
| 10-25 04:56:24 | (anonymous) 0xa1b1…6a83 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 63¢ | $12 | 0x30a8ee… |
| 10-25 04:56:24 | (anonymous) 0xa1b1…6a83 | No | BUY | 19 | 37¢ | $7 | 0x935322… |
| 10-25 04:56:24 | (anonymous) 0xeed8…35f0 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 63¢ | $13 | 0x806ab8… |
| 10-25 04:56:24 | (anonymous) 0x4629…f3b1 | No | BUY | 19 | 37¢ | $7 | 0x806ab8… |
| 10-25 04:56:24 | Melodic-Cria 0xf971…0a57 | No | BUY | 26 | 38¢ | $10 | 0x8c1f42… |
| 10-25 04:56:24 | (anonymous) 0x9c2d…1b16 | No | BUY | 20 | 38¢ | $8 | 0x8c1f42… |
| 10-25 04:56:24 | (anonymous) 0xfd39…9ec8 | Yes | BUY | 161 | 62¢ | $100 | 0x8c1f42… |
| 10-25 04:56:24 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | BUY | 20 | 38¢ | $8 | 0x8c1f42… |
| 10-25 04:56:24 | (anonymous) 0x4c9a…0cd4 | No | BUY | 20 | 38¢ | $8 | 0x8c1f42… |
| 10-25 04:56:24 | (anonymous) 0x4629…f3b1 | No | BUY | 11 | 37¢ | $4 | 0x30a8ee… |
| 10-25 04:56:24 | (anonymous) 0xa1b1…6a83 | No | BUY | 1 | 37¢ | $0 | 0x806ab8… |
| 10-25 04:56:24 | Dense-Whip 0xbea0…e19d | Yes | SELL | 9 | 64¢ | $6 | 0x30a8ee… |
| 10-25 00:47:18 | Belated-Glue 0xad53…ef24 | No | BUY | 20 | 39¢ | $8 | 0xcfe210… |
| 10-25 00:47:18 | (anonymous) 0xbceb…0049 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 61¢ | $12 | 0xcfe210… |
| 10-24 22:37:08 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | SELL | 20 | 37¢ | $7 | 0xaee6e7… |
| 10-24 22:37:08 | Melodic-Cria 0xf971…0a57 | No | BUY | 20 | 37¢ | $7 | 0xaee6e7… |
| 10-24 22:37:02 | Melodic-Cria 0xf971…0a57 | No | BUY | 164 | 37¢ | $61 | 0xd6e5fd… |
| 10-24 22:37:02 | (anonymous) 0xfd39…9ec8 | Yes | BUY | 234 | 63¢ | $147 | 0xd6e5fd… |
| 10-24 22:37:02 | Kaleidoscopic-Outhouse 0xe457…5ab3 | No | BUY | 20 | 37¢ | $7 | 0xd6e5fd… |
| 10-24 22:37:02 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | SELL | 10 | 63¢ | $6 | 0xd6e5fd… |
| 10-24 22:37:02 | (anonymous) 0xa742…9856 | No | BUY | 40 | 37¢ | $15 | 0xd6e5fd… |
| 10-24 22:05:35 | (anonymous) 0xbceb…0049 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 61¢ | $3 | 0x5bc48e… |
| 10-24 22:05:35 | Melodic-Cria 0xf971…0a57 | No | BUY | 5 | 39¢ | $2 | 0x5bc48e… |
| 10-24 22:05:33 | Melodic-Cria 0xf971…0a57 | No | BUY | 5 | 39¢ | $2 | 0xfd2e8a… |
| 10-24 22:05:33 | (anonymous) 0xbceb…0049 | Yes | BUY | 5 | 61¢ | $3 | 0xfd2e8a… |
| 10-24 21:57:00 | Melodic-Cria 0xf971…0a57 | No | BUY | 20 | 39¢ | $8 | 0x30867c… |
| 10-24 21:57:00 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | Yes | BUY | 20 | 61¢ | $12 | 0x30867c… |
| 10-24 21:57:00 | Melodic-Cria 0xf971…0a57 | No | BUY | 5 | 39¢ | $2 | 0x4ffd54… |
| 10-24 21:57:00 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | SELL | 5 | 39¢ | $2 | 0x4ffd54… |
| 10-24 21:56:59 | Plump-Implementation 0x7b25…e4be | No | BUY | 20 | 39¢ | $8 | 0xd9e38a… |
| 10-24 21:56:59 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | SELL | 20 | 39¢ | $8 | 0xd9e38a… |
| 10-24 21:56:56 | (anonymous) 0x321e…9292 | No | BUY | 20 | 39¢ | $8 | 0x641ef3… |
| 10-24 21:56:56 | (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | Yes | BUY | 20 | 61¢ | $12 | 0x641ef3… |
| 10-24 21:56:54 | (anonymous) 0xbceb…0049 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 61¢ | $12 | 0x47d359… |
| 10-24 21:56:54 | (anonymous) 0xbc42…790f | No | BUY | 20 | 39¢ | $8 | 0x47d359… |
| 10-24 20:44:08 | Melodic-Cria 0xf971…0a57 | No | BUY | 36 | 39¢ | $14 | 0xb2da9d… |
| 10-24 20:44:08 | (anonymous) 0xbceb…0049 | Yes | BUY | 36 | 61¢ | $22 | 0xb2da9d… |
| 10-24 20:23:14 | Melodic-Cria 0xf971…0a57 | No | BUY | 25 | 39¢ | $10 | 0x6bb3e9… |
| 10-24 20:23:14 | (anonymous) 0xbceb…0049 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 61¢ | $15 | 0x6bb3e9… |
| 10-24 20:23:06 | Melodic-Cria 0xf971…0a57 | No | BUY | 25 | 39¢ | $10 | 0xf8058d… |
| 10-24 20:23:06 | (anonymous) 0xbceb…0049 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 61¢ | $15 | 0xf8058d… |
| 10-24 20:09:02 | Melodic-Cria 0xf971…0a57 | No | BUY | 20 | 39¢ | $8 | 0x799eed… |
| 10-24 20:09:02 | (anonymous) 0xadb4…bc39 | Yes | BUY | 20 | 61¢ | $12 | 0x799eed… |
| 10-24 20:09:00 | Evil-Row 0x7495…7fcf | No | BUY | 20 | 39¢ | $8 | 0x77967a… |
| 10-24 20:09:00 | (anonymous) 0xbb10…523d | No | BUY | 100 | 39¢ | $39 | 0x77967a… |
| 10-24 20:09:00 | (anonymous) 0xbceb…0049 | Yes | BUY | 226 | 61¢ | $138 | 0x77967a… |
| 10-24 20:09:00 | Melodic-Cria 0xf971…0a57 | No | BUY | 86 | 39¢ | $34 | 0x77967a… |
| 10-24 20:09:00 | (anonymous) 0xadb4…bc39 | No | BUY | 20 | 39¢ | $8 | 0x77967a… |
| 10-24 19:41:24 | Oddball-Poison 0x2b9d…95f4 | No | BUY | 5 | 39¢ | $2 | 0xd80daf… |
| 10-24 19:41:24 | Improbable-Dhow 0x5ae3…2aeb | Yes | BUY | 5 | 61¢ | $3 | 0xd80daf… |
| 10-24 19:39:00 | (anonymous) 0xbceb…0049 | Yes | BUY | 17 | 61¢ | $10 | 0x6c5224… |
| 10-24 19:39:00 | Melodic-Cria 0xf971…0a57 | No | BUY | 17 | 39¢ | $7 | 0x6c5224… |
| 10-24 19:38:59 | Melodic-Cria 0xf971…0a57 | No | BUY | 37 | 39¢ | $14 | 0x10b3fd… |
| 10-24 19:38:59 | (anonymous) 0xbceb…0049 | Yes | BUY | 37 | 61¢ | $23 | 0x10b3fd… |
| 10-24 19:38:54 | (anonymous) 0xbceb…0049 | Yes | BUY | 29 | 61¢ | $18 | 0xa3ccc0… |
| 10-24 19:38:54 | Melodic-Cria 0xf971…0a57 | No | BUY | 29 | 39¢ | $11 | 0xa3ccc0… |
| 10-24 19:38:51 | (anonymous) 0xbceb…0049 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 61¢ | $15 | 0x619358… |
| 10-24 19:38:51 | Melodic-Cria 0xf971…0a57 | No | BUY | 25 | 39¢ | $10 | 0x619358… |
| 10-24 19:38:44 | Melodic-Cria 0xf971…0a57 | No | BUY | 25 | 39¢ | $10 | 0xc46221… |
| 10-24 19:38:44 | (anonymous) 0xbceb…0049 | Yes | BUY | 25 | 61¢ | $15 | 0xc46221… |
| 10-24 09:49:18 | Steel-Digging 0x1073…d8ba | Yes | BUY | 2 | 62¢ | $1 | 0x8386ef… |
| 10-24 09:49:18 | (anonymous) 0xfd39…9ec8 | Yes | BUY | 105 | 62¢ | $65 | 0xd609b1… |
| 10-24 09:49:18 | Melodic-Cria 0xf971…0a57 | No | BUY | 2 | 38¢ | $1 | 0x8386ef… |
| 10-24 09:49:18 | Useful-Carbohydrate 0x94e5…52be | No | BUY | 20 | 38¢ | $8 | 0xd609b1… |
| 10-24 09:49:18 | Melodic-Cria 0xf971…0a57 | No | BUY | 85 | 38¢ | $32 | 0xd609b1… |
| 10-24 07:13:02 | (anonymous) 0x3a5b…9375 | Yes | SELL | 7 | 62¢ | $4 | 0xffa895… |
| 10-24 07:13:02 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 7 | 62¢ | $4 | 0xffa895… |
| 10-24 07:12:59 | Fine-Tassel 0x0084…2ecf | Yes | SELL | 3 | 62¢ | $2 | 0xb1a22d… |
| 10-24 07:12:59 | Known-Use 0x21ff…0d71 | Yes | BUY | 3 | 62¢ | $2 | 0xb1a22d… |