Realized P&L
+$9.44K
Unrealized P&L
+$25.1K
Hit rate
66.5%
Resolved
374
Trades
10,599
lifetime
Volume
$1.23M
lifetime
Avg / trade
$116
Open exposure
$142.8K
30 positions
First seen
2026-05-18
last 10-26 21:49
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 74 days
Categories
Politics
51% 58% +$1,083
Other
43% 57% +$9,278
Tech
7% 62% -$1,021
Crypto
0% 75% +$95
Sports
0% 0% $0
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
83 active days in 12wk • peak 632 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes +20,919 $16,766 76¢ $16.0K -$763 10-25 23:37
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? No +17,239 $13,519 78¢ $13.4K -$159 10-22 17:23
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by November 1, 2026? Yes +10,614 $3,149 98¢ $10.4K +$7,232 10-26 01:36
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? No +12,765 $4,856 62¢ $8.0K +$3,110 10-26 15:19
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? Yes +11,320 $2,856 62¢ $7.1K +$4,196 10-26 13:04
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? No +7,973 $5,934 84¢ $6.7K +$723 10-19 14:20
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026? Yes +6,788 $4,200 88¢ $5.9K +$1,740 10-26 01:57
Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by October 31, 2026? Yes +5,544 $3,145 99¢ $5.5K +$2,319 10-19 08:09
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in November 2026 (ET)? Yes +5,654 $3,437 88¢ $5.0K +$1,547 10-25 22:02
Will there be no next Fable model (5.2+) release by October 31, 2026? No +12,738 $7,811 38¢ $4.8K -$3,008 10-26 14:51
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)? No +4,633 $1,797 99¢ $4.6K +$2,811 09-21 09:55
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026? No +4,534 $1,859 99¢ $4.5K +$2,651 10-01 12:43
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? Yes +5,995 $4,778 75¢ $4.5K -$270 10-25 15:21
will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128 Yes +4,585 $3,927 94¢ $4.3K +$405 09-18 21:21
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? Yes +11,348 $8,380 38¢ $4.3K -$4,113 10-26 11:51
Another Fed rate hike in 2026? No +17,434 $3,576 24¢ $4.1K +$521 10-22 17:23
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? Yes +4,754 $3,538 86¢ $4.1K +$551 10-26 22:29
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes +4,280 $2,705 96¢ $4.1K +$1,382 10-04 01:17
Will 1 Fed rate hike happen in 2026? Yes +17,239 $2,575 22¢ $3.9K +$1,303 10-25 23:37
Will there be no Hormuz agreement? Yes +3,732 $3,646 93¢ $3.5K -$179 10-26 18:05
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? Yes +4,519 $1,165 67¢ $3.0K +$1,863 10-12 17:40
will the next google gemini pro model be released by october 31 2026 No +2,956 $890 98¢ $2.9K +$2,008 09-27 06:23
Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting? No +2,236 $1,743 97¢ $2.2K +$431 06-18 19:12
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Yes +2,236 $788 96¢ $2.1K +$1,358 09-03 13:37
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? No +3,130 $900 68¢ $2.1K +$1,244 09-29 22:54
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026? Yes +4,615 $3,392 32¢ $1.5K -$1,938 10-12 17:41
Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027? Yes +1,821 $1,149 65¢ $1.2K +$35 10-26 19:58
Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026? No +8,041 $1,926 14¢ $1.1K -$800 10-17 06:47
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +4,411 $1,024 26¢ $1.1K +$101 10-25 05:53
Will no qualifying US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting take place by December 31, 2026? No +3,238 $2,287 33¢ $1.1K -$1,219 09-29 23:02