(anonymous) 0x7167c1…c0d110 Create alert
new 4W streak
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Realized P&L
+$643
Unrealized P&L
+$344
Hit rate
81.3%
Resolved
94
Trades
780
lifetime
Volume
$22.4K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$29
Open exposure
$6.91K
30 positions
First seen
2026-10-31
last 11-07 00:21
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 4 days
Categories
Politics
82% 43% +$793
Other
16% 6% -$150
Sports
1% — —
Crypto
1% — —
Tech
0% — —
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
8 active days in 12wk • peak 381 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes +1,525 $840 63¢ $968 +$128 11-05 00:08
Will a US-Iran deal in 2026 include Surrender of Iranian Enriched Uranium? No +892 $779 92¢ $816 +$37 11-02 22:01
Will Democrats win exactly 0 House seats in Tennessee in the 2026 midterm elections? No +845 $794 96¢ $814 +$20 11-04 14:45
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? Yes +877 $643 76¢ $669 +$27 11-06 13:32
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? No +1,525 $633 37¢ $558 -$75 11-05 00:08
Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026? No +419 $359 90¢ $379 +$20 11-04 15:58
Will the Republicans win the Kansas governor race in 2026? No +249 $221 99¢ $247 +$26 11-04 04:47
Will Jon Ossoff announce a Presidential run before 2028? Yes +354 $180 58¢ $207 +$27 11-05 23:03
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting? No +877 $180 24¢ $206 +$26 11-06 13:32
Will the Fed Pause-Pause-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? No +206 $183 92¢ $191 +$8 11-04 03:35
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting? Yes +206 $147 74¢ $151 +$4 11-04 03:35
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027? No +208 $87 68¢ $142 +$55 11-04 18:22
Will Jon Ossoff announce a presidential run by June 30, 2027? No +354 $142 40¢ $140 -$2 11-05 23:03
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2027? No +184 $133 74¢ $135 +$2 11-07 00:21
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-23 House election by 12% or more? No +146 $124 92¢ $135 +$11 11-04 02:08
Will Darian Mensah win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? No +186 $136 72¢ $133 -$3 11-06 17:09
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by December 31? No — +119 $108 94¢ $112 +$4 11-03 14:43
Will the Dallas Cowboys win more than 9.5 games in the 2026 NFL Regular Season? U 9.5 +122 $94 86¢ $104 +$10 11-02 20:44
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Hike in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? No +100 $96 91¢ $91 -$5 11-05 15:54
Will the Fed Pause-Hike-Pause in the next three decisions (Oct-Dec-Jan)? No +306 $95 30¢ $90 -$5 11-05 15:54
Will an Independent candidate win the 2026 Nebraska Senate election by 3% or more? No +89 $74 99¢ $88 +$15 11-03 01:02
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-23 House election by 3%-6%? No +81 $62 96¢ $78 +$16 11-04 01:14
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026? Yes +100 $63 76¢ $76 +$13 11-05 15:54
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 North Carolina Senate election by 18% or more? Yes +74 $67 97¢ $72 +$6 11-04 03:32
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? Yes +208 $108 32¢ $66 -$42 11-04 18:22
Will Democrats win exactly 48 House seats in California in the 2026 midterm elections? Yes +57 $48 92¢ $52 +$4 11-06 21:36
Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026? Yes +79 $43 66¢ $52 +$8 10-31 20:24
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? Yes +892 $54 5¢ $45 -$9 11-02 22:01
Will a player from the ACC win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? Yes +186 $35 24¢ $44 +$9 11-06 17:09
Will Putin and Zelenskyy not meet by December 31, 2027? No +184 $35 24¢ $43 +$8 11-07 00:21