Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.25K

Unrealized P&L

-$103

Hit rate

63.1%

Resolved

345

Trades

2,737

lifetime

Volume

$106.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$39

Open exposure

$955

12 positions

First seen

2026-08-23

last 10-26 20:28

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 40 days

Categories

Politics

69% 67% +$1,142

Other

31% 46% +$100

Crypto

0% 50% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 153 trades/day

Open positions (12) Resolved markets (10) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	+504	$345	65¢	$329	-$16	10-24 20:32
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	+501	$257	64¢	$320	+$63	10-26 06:48
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	+241	$163	66¢	$158	-$5	10-26 07:14
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?	No	+200	$77	36¢	$71	-$6	10-21 10:23
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 30%?	No	+60	$52	100¢	$60	+$8	09-24 16:08
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?	No	+200	$46	4¢	$7	-$39	10-18 18:10
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	+6	$5	96¢	$6	+$1	08-24 23:59
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	No	+201	$36	1¢	$1	-$35	10-25 20:08
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	Yes	+201	$30	1¢	$1	-$29	10-25 20:08
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Yes	+200	$46	0¢	$0	-$46	10-19 00:39
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+6	$1	4¢	$0	-$1	08-24 23:59
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	+3	-$1	1¢	$0	+$1	10-17 19:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	9	$2.0K	1,501	1,501	+0	No	+$324	10-25 22:25
Will the Republicans win Mahoning County in the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	12	$1.1K	782	782	+0	open	—	10-25 04:07
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	13	$1.1K	1,183	675	+508	open	—	10-22 21:46
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	11	$993	870	870	+0	open	—	10-25 15:55
Will the Democrats win Mahoning County in the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	10	$972	661	661	+0	open	—	10-25 04:07
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	6	$908	1,002	501	+501	open	—	10-26 06:48
south dakota passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting	8	$890	500	500	+0	open	—	10-17 22:44
Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?	11	$865	1,046	846	+200	open	—	10-14 16:50
Will Republicans win white voters in the Texas Senate election?	4	$865	501	501	+0	open	—	10-14 14:55
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	10	$864	621	621	+0	Yes	+$21	10-15 02:01
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	6	$851	595	595	+0	open	—	10-23 21:31
democratic senate odds 64 66 on october 23	9	$827	694	687	+7	No	-$7	10-22 04:20
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in October?	7	$827	608	500	+108	open	—	10-25 03:45
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Oaxaca Congress election?	12	$824	500	500	+0	open	—	10-22 08:52
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	4	$814	501	501	+0	Yes	+$156	10-10 16:53
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pernambuco?	3	$808	501	501	+0	Yes	+$151	10-10 00:53
Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	11	$796	701	701	+0	open	—	10-26 00:38
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	16	$756	1,003	878	+126	open	—	10-22 05:50
Will Reps lose Senate Seat in any Trump+10 State and win in a Kamala State?	10	$754	720	720	+0	open	—	10-17 00:57
Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	2	$710	501	501	+0	open	—	10-26 21:32
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Veracruz Congress election?	5	$709	501	501	+0	open	—	10-23 12:31
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 42% and 45% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	7	$703	961	543	+417	No	-$43	10-04 20:47
Will Garry Thind win the next Surrey-Guildford British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	8	$695	501	501	+0	Yes	+$49	10-24 12:36
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	5	$684	501	501	+0	open	—	10-22 21:28
Will Augusto Cury win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	11	$680	622	421	+200	Yes	+$120	10-03 08:12
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Colima Congress election?	9	$647	888	387	+500	open	—	10-22 22:57
Alaska passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?	4	$638	377	377	+0	open	—	10-07 09:34
Will Donald Trump visit North Carolina before the midterms?	8	$630	485	364	+121	Yes	+$46	10-06 11:30
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Hidalgo Congress election?	16	$630	963	462	+500	open	—	10-25 15:22
Will Renan Santos win between 4% and 6% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	7	$625	659	459	+200	No	-$25	09-30 15:54

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-26 21:32:59	Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	SELL	501	70¢	$349	0x2e9077…
10-26 21:15:38	Will voter turnout be between 68% and 70% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	11	21¢	$2	0xba5309…
10-26 20:28:09	Will Serbia call its presidential election by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	67¢	$334	0xce3598…
10-26 18:33:26	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	BUY	180	60¢	$108	0x1a71e6…
10-26 17:36:45	will iliana iotova win the most votes in the second round of the bulgaria presidential election from abroad 20261026154956939	No	BUY	420	75¢	$315	0x4a2f79…
10-26 17:14:45	Will PP win 144 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	210	8¢	$16	0xce27da…
10-26 17:11:57	Spain General Election: PSOE gains seats?	No	BUY	245	64¢	$157	0x06ff01…
10-26 17:10:23	Will PSOE receive between 26% and 28% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x71d1fa…
10-26 17:07:42	Will ERC win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x52515d…
10-26 17:03:06	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Congress election?	No	BUY	33	21¢	$7	0x73af40…
10-26 16:31:23	Will PSOE win 120 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x08aa25…
10-26 15:38:11	Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xa80f3d…
10-26 15:28:51	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Chiapas Congress election?	Yes	SELL	224	81¢	$180	0x0ec0f5…
10-26 15:19:09	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	BUY	12	64¢	$8	0x9d6f08…
10-26 15:10:38	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	118	68¢	$80	0xedf67d…
10-26 14:35:38	Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Sur Congress election?	Yes	SELL	109	26¢	$28	0x1c5c1d…
10-26 13:26:38	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.3% and 1.5%?	Yes	BUY	215	3¢	$6	0xa9c56c…
10-26 12:33:38	Will PP win the most seats in León in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	195	68¢	$133	0xfc490f…
10-26 12:13:44	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in September?	Yes	BUY	191	9¢	$17	0x13cb08…
10-26 12:13:03	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	BUY	90	61¢	$55	0x5d8cbb…
10-26 12:13:02	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?	Yes	BUY	229	4¢	$10	0xe182aa…
10-26 12:12:21	Will Vox win 56-60 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	92	70¢	$64	0x6dd058…
10-26 11:32:14	Will Angie Nixon underperform Kamala in Florida?	Yes	SELL	127	19¢	$24	0x510a76…
10-26 10:52:44	Will Édouard Philippe win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	102	29¢	$29	0xabf1a8…
10-26 10:46:45	Alberta snap election called by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	62	75¢	$47	0x9bf8db…
10-26 10:42:48	Will PSOE receive between 28% and 30% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	84	72¢	$60	0x7c621a…
10-26 10:36:48	Will EH Bildu win exactly 8 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	60	68¢	$41	0x7b2bc1…
10-26 10:24:17	Will PP win the most seats in Huesca in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0x107325…
10-26 09:10:44	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	BUY	9	60¢	$5	0xdabd78…
10-26 09:02:09	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in September?	Yes	BUY	31	9¢	$3	0xa88c5b…
10-26 07:56:35	Will PP win the most seats in La Rioja in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	70	79¢	$55	0x846d68…
10-26 07:42:54	Will Édouard Philippe win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	400	20¢	$81	0x1601e7…
10-26 07:29:36	Will PSOE receive between 28% and 30% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x170d7c…
10-26 07:14:41	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0x8d8fb9…
10-26 07:08:42	Will Édouard Philippe win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	363	75¢	$271	0xaa1d51…
10-26 06:48:21	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	368	64¢	$237	0x6059b5…
10-26 06:06:08	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x412316…
10-26 05:56:09	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in September?	Yes	BUY	89	8¢	$7	0xa77c7a…
10-26 03:44:05	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	30	64¢	$19	0xab708f…
10-26 01:07:26	Will PSOE receive between 28% and 30% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x5b9567…
10-26 01:07:24	Will PSOE receive between 24% and 26% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	75	18¢	$14	0xf57887…
10-26 00:54:15	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	39	67¢	$26	0x9ec4bd…
10-26 00:52:33	Will PP win the most seats in Albacete in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	35	76¢	$26	0x735bf7…
10-26 00:39:42	Will Édouard Philippe win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	137	75¢	$103	0x4d4cf4…
10-26 00:38:09	Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	SELL	201	76¢	$153	0xd3ee68…
10-26 00:38:09	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	BUY	200	66¢	$132	0x232f8f…
10-25 23:47:09	Will PP win the most seats in León in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	13	69¢	$9	0x80a5d3…
10-25 23:35:05	Will Vox win 76 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	8	21¢	$2	0x44189c…
10-25 22:51:53	Will Vox receive between 18% and 20% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	228	37¢	$84	0xb0eee9…
10-25 22:25:08	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	BUY	385	58¢	$225	0xf6d369…
10-25 22:25:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?	Yes	BUY	501	4¢	$20	0x912bef…
10-25 22:25:06	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	SELL	500	78¢	$389	0x3a6986…
10-25 22:14:18	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	SELL	53	51¢	$27	0x261e2a…
10-25 22:12:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?	No	SELL	294	88¢	$258	0x21b988…
10-25 21:29:27	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	38	64¢	$25	0xba453e…
10-25 21:06:56	Will Ivica Dačić – Factor of Stability! win the third most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	85	95¢	$81	0xc4a057…
10-25 20:51:38	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	BUY	71	58¢	$41	0x11cb6f…
10-25 20:08:03	Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	No	BUY	201	18¢	$36	0x421fff…
10-25 20:08:02	Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%?	Yes	BUY	201	15¢	$30	0x3b566e…
10-25 19:57:54	Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Bulgaria presidential election?	Yes	BUY	86	10¢	$9	0x12f021…
10-25 19:21:27	Will ERC win fewer than 6 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	82	3¢	$3	0x0b828e…
10-25 19:11:47	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 66-70%?	No	SELL	168	80¢	$134	0x6f8589…
10-25 18:17:59	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	65	65¢	$42	0x476174…
10-25 16:52:59	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	68	73¢	$49	0xaabdf1…
10-25 16:51:53	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Congress election?	No	BUY	467	18¢	$84	0x8d6923…
10-25 16:51:53	Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Congress election?	Yes	BUY	412	6¢	$23	0x1d77f1…
10-25 16:23:35	Will MC win the most seats in the 2027 Veracruz Congress election?	Yes	BUY	93	1¢	$1	0xdf79d9…
10-25 16:16:11	Will ERC win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	265	10¢	$27	0x8e0b59…
10-25 16:15:02	Will PSOE win the second-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	94	78¢	$73	0xa66a93…
10-25 15:57:03	Will voter turnout in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election be 70% or more?	No	SELL	147	33¢	$49	0x38f1ec…
10-25 15:55:00	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	Yes	SELL	24	33¢	$8	0x3dad4f…
10-25 15:32:36	Will PRI win the most seats in the 2027 San Luis Potosí Congress election?	No	SELL	71	99¢	$70	0x389922…
10-25 15:28:24	Will PSOE receive between 24% and 26% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	20¢	$4	0x5fc811…
10-25 15:22:03	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Hidalgo Congress election?	No	BUY	157	24¢	$38	0xa3c4c5…
10-25 14:08:08	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?	Yes	BUY	92	7¢	$6	0xa8c19c…
10-25 14:01:02	Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?	No	SELL	226	57¢	$128	0x92e4b0…
10-25 13:04:56	Will PSOE win the second-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	179	77¢	$139	0x6af854…
10-25 12:54:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	No	BUY	88	55¢	$48	0x765236…
10-25 12:24:36	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	311	64¢	$199	0xd2a600…
10-25 12:06:24	Will PSOE receive between 24% and 26% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	138	14¢	$20	0x7fcd8d…
10-25 12:06:24	Will PSOE receive between 26% and 28% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0x0016b8…
10-25 11:44:57	Will EH Bildu win exactly 5 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	12	73¢	$9	0x17e01e…
10-25 11:28:11	Will PSOE win 120 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	195	70¢	$136	0x149e56…
10-25 11:17:02	Will China GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?	No	BUY	314	57¢	$179	0x730c78…
10-25 10:29:18	Will Angie Nixon underperform Kamala in Florida?	Yes	SELL	7	22¢	$2	0x10db4a…
10-25 09:14:56	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	177	64¢	$113	0x250e18…
10-25 08:55:45	Will PP win 144 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	168	12¢	$21	0x299e04…
10-25 08:55:27	Will PSOE receive between 24% and 26% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	48	19¢	$9	0x0a9951…
10-25 08:29:59	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	373	38¢	$142	0x1dffc9…
10-25 08:28:48	Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?	Yes	BUY	201	47¢	$95	0x1020c3…
10-25 08:26:00	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	BUY	145	59¢	$86	0x6f2a9d…
10-25 08:06:02	Will China GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?	No	BUY	188	58¢	$108	0x1a5c64…
10-25 08:06:00	Will China GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?	Yes	BUY	71	6¢	$4	0x063f39…
10-25 06:05:05	Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	12	64¢	$8	0x413a9e…
10-25 05:06:53	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–6%?	No	BUY	294	70¢	$206	0x1ae0ce…
10-25 04:57:54	Will AP call US Senate control by November 6, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	40	23¢	$9	0xe7fb27…
10-25 04:57:53	Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	161	25¢	$41	0xae87c8…
10-25 04:56:24	Will the Republican Party hold 190 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	161	62¢	$100	0x8c1f42…
10-25 04:56:20	Will China GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 4.9% and 5.2%?	Yes	BUY	162	10¢	$16	0x4faa64…
10-25 04:38:09	Will Vox win fewer than 56 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	34	4¢	$1	0xa3e45c…