Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$1.24K

Unrealized P&L

-$5

Hit rate

62.8%

Resolved

366

Trades

2,791

lifetime

Volume

$109.9K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$39

Open exposure

$958

10 positions

First seen

2026-08-23

last 10-27 22:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 41 days

Categories

Politics

69% 67% +$1,133

Other

31% 46% +$100

Crypto

0% 50% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 153 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	+504	$345	66¢	$334	-$11	10-24 20:32
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	+501	$257	63¢	$317	+$60	10-26 06:48
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	+241	$163	66¢	$161	-$3	10-26 07:14
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?	No	+200	$77	36¢	$71	-$6	10-21 10:23
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	+127	$23	44¢	$55	+$32	10-27 23:12
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?	No	+200	$46	6¢	$11	-$35	10-18 18:10
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	+6	$5	96¢	$6	+$1	08-24 23:59
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Yes	+200	$46	2¢	$3	-$43	10-19 00:39
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+6	$1	4¢	$0	-$1	08-24 23:59
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	+3	-$1	0¢	$0	+$1	10-17 19:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	9	$2.0K	1,501	1,501	+0	No	+$324	10-25 22:25
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	14	$1.3K	1,183	1,056	+127	open	—	10-27 23:12
Will the Republicans win Mahoning County in the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	12	$1.1K	782	782	+0	open	—	10-25 04:07
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	11	$993	870	870	+0	open	—	10-25 15:55
Will the Democrats win Mahoning County in the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	10	$972	661	661	+0	open	—	10-25 04:07
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	6	$908	1,002	501	+501	open	—	10-26 06:48
south dakota passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting	8	$890	500	500	+0	open	—	10-17 22:44
Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?	11	$865	1,046	846	+200	open	—	10-14 16:50
Will Republicans win white voters in the Texas Senate election?	4	$865	501	501	+0	open	—	10-14 14:55
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	10	$864	621	621	+0	Yes	+$21	10-15 02:01
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	6	$851	595	595	+0	open	—	10-23 21:31
Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on October 23?	9	$827	694	687	+7	No	-$7	10-22 04:20
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in October?	7	$827	608	500	+108	open	—	10-25 03:45
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Oaxaca Congress election?	12	$824	500	500	+0	open	—	10-22 08:52
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	18	$818	1,003	1,003	+0	open	—	10-27 20:51
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	4	$814	501	501	+0	Yes	+$156	10-10 16:53
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pernambuco?	3	$808	501	501	+0	Yes	+$151	10-10 00:53
Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	11	$796	701	701	+0	open	—	10-26 00:38
Will Reps lose Senate Seat in any Trump+10 State and win in a Kamala State?	10	$754	720	720	+0	open	—	10-17 00:57
Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?	2	$726	420	420	+0	open	—	10-26 23:50
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico City Congress election?	8	$710	501	501	+0	open	—	10-27 14:59
Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	2	$710	501	501	+0	open	—	10-26 21:32
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Veracruz Congress election?	5	$709	501	501	+0	open	—	10-23 12:31
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 42% and 45% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	7	$703	961	543	+417	No	-$43	10-04 20:47
Will Garry Thind win the next Surrey-Guildford British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	8	$695	501	501	+0	Yes	+$49	10-24 12:36
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	5	$684	501	501	+0	open	—	10-22 21:28
Will Augusto Cury win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	11	$680	622	421	+200	Yes	+$120	10-03 08:12
Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	5	$650	500	500	+0	open	—	10-27 06:59
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Colima Congress election?	9	$647	888	387	+500	open	—	10-22 22:57
Alaska passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?	4	$638	377	377	+0	open	—	10-07 09:34

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-27 23:33:00	Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	14	31¢	$4	0xe3403e…
10-27 23:12:45	Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	381	41¢	$155	0x09d2cf…
10-27 23:07:23	Will Peggy Flanagan run 0 to 3 points behind Amy Klobuchar?	Yes	BUY	129	28¢	$36	0xe5824f…
10-27 22:59:09	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in October?	Yes	BUY	28	10¢	$3	0x4d0bd7…
10-27 22:56:59	Will Troy Jackson run ahead of Hannah Pingree?	Yes	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x378c67…
10-27 22:01:30	Will PSOE receive between 26% and 28% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	36	37¢	$13	0x0fc0ac…
10-27 21:43:36	Will Chris Pappas underperform Kamala in New Hampshire?	Yes	SELL	118	21¢	$25	0xa66e8e…
10-27 21:39:38	Will parties below the electoral threshold receive between 6% and 8% of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	BUY	77	42¢	$33	0x42678e…
10-27 20:51:21	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	Yes	SELL	97	48¢	$47	0x0fa1a2…
10-27 20:48:42	Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	64	80¢	$51	0x195813…
10-27 20:45:02	Will Core PCE YoY be 2.7% or less in September?	No	SELL	62	100¢	$62	0xd1f38f…
10-27 20:12:33	Will PP win the most seats in Cáceres in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	183	50¢	$92	0x335a45…
10-27 19:56:02	Will Peggy Flanagan run 3 to 6 points behind Amy Klobuchar?	Yes	BUY	165	24¢	$40	0x804cfd…
10-27 19:54:32	Will PP win the most seats in Guadalajara in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	84	76¢	$64	0x6d1b6a…
10-27 19:47:39	Will Troy Jackson run ahead of Hannah Pingree?	Yes	BUY	53	20¢	$10	0x342d6c…
10-27 19:46:51	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in October?	Yes	BUY	71	9¢	$6	0x46bbf0…
10-27 19:45:09	Will Becerra win the 2026 California gubernatorial election by 40% or more?	No	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x2336a5…
10-27 19:41:33	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in October?	No	SELL	132	66¢	$87	0xa2fe86…
10-27 19:15:54	Will PP win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	8	77¢	$6	0xefe047…
10-27 18:57:36	Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany?	Yes	SELL	16	57¢	$9	0xf47218…
10-27 17:36:17	Next Israeli government formed by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	182	80¢	$146	0xff3476…
10-27 16:34:48	Will PP win the most seats in La Rioja in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	40	76¢	$30	0x1e35cb…
10-27 16:03:51	Alberta snap election called by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	30	79¢	$24	0xa5e288…
10-27 15:48:24	Will PSOE win the most seats in Catalonia in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	70	91¢	$64	0x1b0ef1…
10-27 15:48:18	Will the opposition bloc win the Israeli election by 3-4 seats?	No	BUY	20	69¢	$14	0x64083b…
10-27 15:17:53	Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by December 31?	No	BUY	51	42¢	$21	0x7d1557…
10-27 14:59:29	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico City Congress election?	Yes	SELL	268	75¢	$202	0xcee454…
10-27 14:35:53	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	Yes	SELL	28	52¢	$15	0xcd9dae…
10-27 13:50:54	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	BUY	131	24¢	$31	0x1b91e9…
10-27 13:50:53	Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	BUY	44	20¢	$9	0xb64869…
10-27 13:46:05	Will Bruno Retailleau receive the most signatures from elected officials in the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	41	36¢	$15	0x7707ac…
10-27 13:40:05	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	No	BUY	232	73¢	$169	0xc56ece…
10-27 13:07:35	Will PP win the most seats in La Rioja in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	70	76¢	$53	0xc273a5…
10-27 12:53:44	Alberta snap election called by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	205	74¢	$152	0xe5206b…
10-27 12:30:12	Will PSOE receive between 26% and 28% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	40	33¢	$13	0x015959…
10-27 10:41:36	Will PSOE win the most seats in Cáceres in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	63	52¢	$32	0x0bfd97…
10-27 10:16:24	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	BUY	256	60¢	$153	0xa81102…
10-27 09:56:09	Will Vox win 56-60 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	138	89¢	$123	0xfb1c2c…
10-27 09:06:51	Will PSOE receive between 26% and 28% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	148	37¢	$55	0x7960b0…
10-27 07:36:38	Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	14	32¢	$4	0x8d7153…
10-27 07:36:36	Will AP call US Senate control by November 6, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0xcef11c…
10-27 07:30:47	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	BUY	256	31¢	$78	0xe780b1…
10-27 06:59:17	Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	500	64¢	$322	0x42c39a…
10-27 06:06:30	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Attorney General election?	Yes	SELL	10	19¢	$2	0xa5e5ce…
10-27 05:55:29	Will PSOE receive between 24% and 26% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	144	20¢	$29	0x218388…
10-27 04:38:17	Will Joint List win the fourth-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	62	27¢	$17	0xc6a587…
10-27 04:26:24	Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	14	32¢	$4	0xb9c17d…
10-27 04:10:18	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.1%?	No	BUY	270	70¢	$190	0x08ebf6…
10-27 03:36:12	Will Vox win 56-60 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	354	71¢	$251	0x7178a0…
10-27 02:49:17	Will EH Bildu win exactly 8 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	50	67¢	$34	0x812801…
10-27 02:44:30	Will PSOE receive between 26% and 28% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	30¢	$6	0x73caa7…
10-27 02:22:09	Will PP win the second-most seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	41	80¢	$33	0xd3ed9d…
10-27 00:07:21	Will PP win the most seats in La Rioja in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	75¢	$15	0x22c012…
10-26 23:50:15	Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?	No	SELL	420	98¢	$412	0x5fa6d1…
10-26 21:49:03	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	BUY	89	61¢	$55	0xaba52d…
10-26 21:32:59	Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	SELL	501	70¢	$349	0x2e9077…
10-26 21:15:38	Will voter turnout be between 68% and 70% in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Yes	SELL	11	21¢	$2	0xba5309…
10-26 20:28:09	Will Serbia call its presidential election by November 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	500	67¢	$334	0xce3598…
10-26 18:33:26	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	BUY	180	60¢	$108	0x1a71e6…
10-26 17:36:45	will iliana iotova win the most votes in the second round of the bulgaria presidential election from abroad 20261026154956939	No	BUY	420	75¢	$315	0x4a2f79…
10-26 17:14:45	Will PP win 144 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	210	8¢	$16	0xce27da…
10-26 17:11:57	Spain General Election: PSOE gains seats?	No	BUY	245	64¢	$157	0x06ff01…
10-26 17:10:23	Will PSOE receive between 26% and 28% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x71d1fa…
10-26 17:07:42	Will ERC win 6-7 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	65¢	$13	0x52515d…
10-26 17:03:06	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Congress election?	No	BUY	33	21¢	$7	0x73af40…
10-26 16:31:23	Will PSOE win 120 or more seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	71¢	$14	0x08aa25…
10-26 15:38:11	Will Ilse Aigner be the next President of Germany?	Yes	BUY	20	40¢	$8	0xa80f3d…
10-26 15:28:51	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Chiapas Congress election?	Yes	SELL	224	81¢	$180	0x0ec0f5…
10-26 15:19:09	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	BUY	12	64¢	$8	0x9d6f08…
10-26 15:10:38	Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	Yes	SELL	118	68¢	$80	0xedf67d…
10-26 14:35:38	Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Sur Congress election?	Yes	SELL	109	26¢	$28	0x1c5c1d…
10-26 13:26:38	Will Argentina's monthly inflation in October 2026 be between 1.3% and 1.5%?	Yes	BUY	215	3¢	$6	0xa9c56c…
10-26 12:33:38	Will PP win the most seats in León in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	195	68¢	$133	0xfc490f…
10-26 12:13:44	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in September?	Yes	BUY	191	9¢	$17	0x13cb08…
10-26 12:13:03	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	No	BUY	90	61¢	$55	0x5d8cbb…
10-26 12:13:02	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?	Yes	BUY	229	4¢	$10	0xe182aa…
10-26 12:12:21	Will Vox win 56-60 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	92	70¢	$64	0x6dd058…
10-26 11:32:14	Will Angie Nixon underperform Kamala in Florida?	Yes	SELL	127	19¢	$24	0x510a76…
10-26 10:52:44	Will Édouard Philippe win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	102	29¢	$29	0xabf1a8…
10-26 10:46:45	Alberta snap election called by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	62	75¢	$47	0x9bf8db…
10-26 10:42:48	Will PSOE receive between 28% and 30% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	84	72¢	$60	0x7c621a…
10-26 10:36:48	Will EH Bildu win exactly 8 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	60	68¢	$41	0x7b2bc1…
10-26 10:24:17	Will PP win the most seats in Huesca in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	22	69¢	$15	0x107325…
10-26 09:10:44	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	BUY	9	60¢	$5	0xdabd78…
10-26 09:02:09	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in September?	Yes	BUY	31	9¢	$3	0xa88c5b…
10-26 07:56:35	Will PP win the most seats in La Rioja in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	70	79¢	$55	0x846d68…
10-26 07:42:54	Will Édouard Philippe win the third-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Yes	BUY	400	20¢	$81	0x1601e7…
10-26 07:29:36	Will PSOE receive between 28% and 30% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	20	70¢	$14	0x170d7c…
10-26 07:14:41	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0x8d8fb9…
10-26 07:08:42	Will Édouard Philippe win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	363	75¢	$271	0xaa1d51…
10-26 06:48:21	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	368	64¢	$237	0x6059b5…
10-26 06:06:08	Will China’s CPI increase by between 0.7% and 0.8% over the 12 month period ending in October 2026?	No	BUY	20	60¢	$12	0x412316…
10-26 05:56:09	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.2% in September?	Yes	BUY	89	8¢	$7	0xa77c7a…
10-26 03:44:05	Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	30	64¢	$19	0xab708f…
10-26 01:07:26	Will PSOE receive between 28% and 30% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0x5b9567…
10-26 01:07:24	Will PSOE receive between 24% and 26% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	75	18¢	$14	0xf57887…
10-26 00:54:15	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	BUY	39	67¢	$26	0x9ec4bd…
10-26 00:52:33	Will PP win the most seats in Albacete in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	35	76¢	$26	0x735bf7…
10-26 00:39:42	Will Édouard Philippe win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	137	75¢	$103	0x4d4cf4…
10-26 00:38:09	Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	SELL	201	76¢	$153	0xd3ee68…