Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

+$906

Unrealized P&L

-$32

Hit rate

62.7%

Resolved (90d)

401

Trades (90d)

2,949

2,949 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$118.2K

$118.2K lifetime

Avg / trade

$40

Open exposure

$629

10 positions

First seen

2026-08-23

last 10-30 09:32

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 44 days

Categories

Politics

69% 68% +$1,177

Other

31% 46% -$276

Crypto

0% 50% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

69 active days in 12wk • peak 153 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (7) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	+297	$134	68¢	$203	+$70	10-27 23:37
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	+502	$161	30¢	$152	-$9	10-30 00:12
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	+502	$160	30¢	$151	-$9	10-30 00:12
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?	No	+200	$77	37¢	$74	-$3	10-21 10:23
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	+44	$23	45¢	$20	-$3	10-30 07:54
Israeli Knesset election annulled?	No	+13	$10	95¢	$12	+$2	10-29 11:51
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?	No	+200	$46	4¢	$8	-$38	10-18 18:10
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	+6	$5	97¢	$6	+$1	08-24 23:59
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Yes	+200	$46	1¢	$3	-$43	10-19 00:39
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+6	$1	3¢	$0	-$1	08-24 23:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	9	$2.0K	1,501	1,501	+0	No	+$324	10-25 22:25
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	15	$1.3K	1,183	1,183	+0	open	—	10-28 23:27
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	7	$1.2K	1,002	1,002	+0	open	—	10-28 05:45
Will the Republicans win Mahoning County in the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	12	$1.1K	782	782	+0	open	—	10-25 04:07
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	11	$993	870	870	+0	open	—	10-25 15:55
Will the Democrats win Mahoning County in the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	10	$972	661	661	+0	open	—	10-25 04:07
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	10	$923	1,001	500	+500	open	—	10-30 07:49
Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	12	$903	872	701	+171	open	—	10-29 22:56
south dakota passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting	8	$890	500	500	+0	open	—	10-17 22:44
Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?	11	$865	1,046	846	+200	open	—	10-14 16:50
Will Republicans win white voters in the Texas Senate election?	4	$865	501	501	+0	open	—	10-14 14:55
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	10	$864	621	621	+0	Yes	+$21	10-15 02:01
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	6	$851	595	595	+0	open	—	10-23 21:31
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	7	$837	1,006	504	+502	open	—	10-30 00:12
Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on October 23?	9	$827	694	687	+7	No	-$7	10-22 04:20
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in October?	7	$827	608	500	+108	open	—	10-25 03:45
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Oaxaca Congress election?	12	$824	500	500	+0	open	—	10-22 08:52
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	18	$818	1,003	1,003	+0	open	—	10-27 20:51
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	4	$814	501	501	+0	Yes	+$156	10-10 16:53
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pernambuco?	3	$808	501	501	+0	Yes	+$151	10-10 00:53
Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?	6	$768	922	420	+502	open	—	10-30 06:45
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?	8	$766	482	482	+0	open	—	10-29 16:55
Will Reps lose Senate Seat in any Trump+10 State and win in a Kamala State?	10	$754	720	720	+0	open	—	10-17 00:57
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Chiapas Congress election?	11	$744	500	500	-0	open	—	10-29 16:10
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico City Congress election?	8	$710	501	501	+0	open	—	10-27 14:59
Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	2	$710	501	501	+0	open	—	10-26 21:32
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Veracruz Congress election?	5	$709	501	501	+0	open	—	10-23 12:31
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 42% and 45% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	7	$703	961	543	+417	No	-$43	10-04 20:47
Will Garry Thind win the next Surrey-Guildford British Columbia Legislative Assembly election?	8	$695	501	501	+0	Yes	+$49	10-24 12:36
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	5	$684	501	501	+0	open	—	10-22 21:28

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 09:32:03	Will ERC win the most seats in Catalonia in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	269	6¢	$16	0xacc5e3…
10-30 08:52:43	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?	No	BUY	123	71¢	$88	0x798cd0…
10-30 08:52:43	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in October?	Yes	BUY	111	11¢	$12	0x58aea6…
10-30 08:51:39	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?	No	SELL	120	95¢	$114	0xc5507d…
10-30 08:40:13	Will PP win the most seats in Cáceres in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0x8b0d5f…
10-30 08:40:10	Closer Senate Race: Minnesota or Mississippi?	Mississippi	SELL	96	55¢	$54	0x251bf7…
10-30 07:54:31	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	SELL	218	50¢	$109	0xe32507…
10-30 07:54:31	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	BUY	44	51¢	$23	0x71db7e…
10-30 07:49:03	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	No	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0x85f391…
10-30 06:45:57	Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?	Yes	BUY	189	8¢	$16	0xa7b1ae…
10-30 06:43:58	Will Democrats win the Michigan and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	95	58¢	$55	0x4d609b…
10-30 06:32:10	Will John Cornyn endorse Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	SELL	30	11¢	$3	0x09d0ba…
10-30 05:26:33	Will PSOE win the most seats in Cáceres in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x5a7028…
10-30 04:51:36	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	SELL	285	50¢	$142	0x97d19e…
10-30 04:35:25	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	No	BUY	485	28¢	$138	0xe1d2af…
10-30 04:35:25	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in October?	Yes	BUY	502	1¢	$5	0x6b852a…
10-30 04:35:25	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in October?	Yes	BUY	59	5¢	$3	0x6a1522…
10-30 04:24:33	Will AP call US House control by November 5, 11:59 PM?	Yes	BUY	293	80¢	$235	0xf9d355…
10-30 04:24:31	Will AP call US House control by November 4, 3:59 AM?	Yes	BUY	18	66¢	$12	0x3d8144…
10-30 04:18:09	Alaska passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting?	No	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0xe92891…
10-30 03:34:48	Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?	Yes	BUY	128	9¢	$12	0xd56344…
10-30 03:34:48	Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?	No	BUY	430	10¢	$41	0xa29d3f…
10-30 02:25:30	Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by November 13?	Yes	SELL	39	60¢	$24	0x12a0dd…
10-30 02:13:42	Closer Senate Race: Minnesota or Mississippi?	Mississippi	SELL	199	53¢	$106	0x3230f0…
10-30 01:11:33	Will AP call US House control by November 5, 11:59 PM?	Yes	BUY	208	79¢	$165	0xab59f7…
10-30 00:40:18	Democratic Senate odds >68% on October 30?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x17ae6e…
10-30 00:40:16	Democratic Senate odds 66-68% on October 30?	Yes	SELL	25	43¢	$11	0xa2c7f5…
10-30 00:27:31	Will Democrats win the Michigan and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	11	52¢	$6	0x1f3687…
10-30 00:21:13	Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?	Yes	BUY	29	10¢	$3	0xf93c89…
10-30 00:21:13	Will Andrey Gyurov win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?	No	BUY	81	10¢	$8	0x4332ca…
10-30 00:16:57	Will ERC win the most seats in Catalonia in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xac181b…
10-30 00:12:25	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	502	32¢	$160	0x8efed8…
10-30 00:12:25	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	BUY	502	32¢	$161	0x2419be…
10-29 23:51:31	Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 2?	Yes	BUY	500	45¢	$227	0x428b24…
10-29 23:23:46	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in October?	Yes	BUY	42	10¢	$4	0xbe304a…
10-29 23:23:45	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% or less in October?	Yes	SELL	99	16¢	$16	0xf46c40…
10-29 23:03:00	Will PP receive between 30% and 32% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	107	36¢	$39	0x9273e1…
10-29 22:56:43	Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	BUY	171	63¢	$107	0xb08aab…
10-29 22:51:25	Israel Election: Yashar and Likud in coalition?	No	BUY	16	63¢	$10	0x4c5c8a…
10-29 22:08:58	Will Peggy Flanagan run 0 to 3 points behind Amy Klobuchar?	Yes	SELL	136	45¢	$61	0x2ca4da…
10-29 22:00:37	Will Serbia call its presidential election by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	76	47¢	$36	0xffd7e8…
10-29 21:39:01	Will Jim Jordan be the first House Minority Leader after the 2026 midterms?	Yes	BUY	20	42¢	$8	0x3294ae…
10-29 21:33:03	Will Chou Chun-mi win the next Pingtung County Magistrate election?	No	SELL	10	40¢	$4	0xe86ac9…
10-29 21:17:12	Will Democrats win the Michigan and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	10	59¢	$6	0xfb7c82…
10-29 21:14:34	Will The Democrats be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	7	79¢	$5	0xeb72c9…
10-29 21:14:33	Will Yisrael Beiteinu be in the next Israeli government?	No	SELL	85	71¢	$61	0x1e0b89…
10-29 21:13:45	Will ERC win the most seats in Catalonia in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	42	4¢	$1	0x103477…
10-29 20:58:52	Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?	Yes	BUY	156	7¢	$11	0x0b1e94…
10-29 20:36:03	Will no next Israeli Minister of Finance be appointed by February 28, 2027?	Yes	SELL	501	61¢	$303	0xf67178…
10-29 20:16:37	Will the US birth rate in 2026 be 51.5 or higher?	No	BUY	45	11¢	$5	0x5bca9f…
10-29 19:57:22	Will PSOE win the most seats in Cáceres in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	155	26¢	$40	0xb549e3…
10-29 19:45:37	Israel Election: Yashar and Likud in coalition?	No	BUY	103	63¢	$65	0x99dc78…
10-29 19:43:36	Will Vox win the most seats in Guadalajara in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	110	10¢	$11	0xe74e61…
10-29 19:41:46	Will Mary Peltola win the 2026 Alaska Senate first round by 6%-9%?	Yes	SELL	172	14¢	$25	0x0585c2…
10-29 19:28:16	Will ISM Services PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	21	11¢	$2	0x035288…
10-29 19:23:37	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Attorney General election?	Yes	SELL	10	14¢	$1	0x9eee99…
10-29 19:23:34	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Minnesota Attorney General election?	No	SELL	10	15¢	$2	0xaa04f8…
10-29 17:43:17	Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Baja California Congress election?	Yes	BUY	95	6¢	$6	0xcd67f0…
10-29 16:55:43	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?	Yes	SELL	342	92¢	$316	0x208952…
10-29 16:53:35	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?	No	BUY	50	72¢	$36	0x98c69c…
10-29 16:51:46	Will PP win the most seats in Cáceres in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	50	66¢	$33	0x8a7854…
10-29 16:50:20	Will PP receive between 30% and 32% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	387	21¢	$81	0x021ad3…
10-29 16:40:43	Will Vox win the most seats in Guadalajara in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	129	10¢	$13	0x8cd714…
10-29 16:13:37	Will ISM Services PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in October?	Yes	SELL	468	13¢	$59	0x36fc3e…
10-29 16:10:55	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Chiapas Congress election?	Yes	SELL	176	79¢	$139	0xfc0973…
10-29 16:10:13	Turek flips Hinson for Iowa Senate by November 2?	No	SELL	500	61¢	$303	0xd42adc…
10-29 15:57:40	Alberta snap election called by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	30	81¢	$24	0xbf605c…
10-29 15:19:43	Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico City Congress election?	Yes	BUY	182	8¢	$14	0xf54ad3…
10-29 15:19:32	Will Liberal–National hold the most seats in the New South Wales Legislative Council after the next New South Wales state election?	No	SELL	101	91¢	$92	0x23e018…
10-29 15:07:34	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Tlaxcala Congress election?	No	BUY	433	23¢	$98	0x18a697…
10-29 14:24:11	Democratic Senate odds 66-68% on November 2?	No	BUY	120	56¢	$67	0xfe91b3…
10-29 14:04:56	Will the US birth rate in 2026 be 52.5 or higher?	No	BUY	17	61¢	$10	0x427011…
10-29 13:39:13	Will PSOE win the most seats in La Rioja in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	10	79¢	$8	0x8c5606…
10-29 13:37:53	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?	No	BUY	172	72¢	$124	0x20f60e…
10-29 13:09:40	Will AP call US Senate control by November 6, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	60	28¢	$17	0xa008cd…
10-29 11:51:25	Israeli Knesset election annulled?	No	BUY	13	76¢	$10	0xa73490…
10-29 11:01:04	Will the US birth rate in 2026 be 52.5 or higher?	No	BUY	17	61¢	$10	0x459bc4…
10-29 10:58:20	Will ERC win 10-11 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	7	84¢	$6	0xe18900…
10-29 10:40:26	Will PP receive between 30% and 32% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	114	22¢	$25	0xd96f53…
10-29 10:28:26	Will PP win the most seats in Guadalajara in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	26	21¢	$5	0xfeeb0e…
10-29 10:28:26	Will Vox win the most seats in Guadalajara in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	40	8¢	$3	0xa50d6c…
10-29 10:22:55	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?	No	BUY	40	66¢	$27	0xd7b57d…
10-29 10:03:56	Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by November 13?	Yes	BUY	60	43¢	$26	0x409001…
10-29 08:50:49	Will Democrats win the Michigan and Ohio Senate seats?	Yes	BUY	20	52¢	$10	0xf2400c…
10-29 08:49:17	Will Vox win 56-60 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	184	88¢	$162	0x81ad2d…
10-29 08:39:22	Will Democrats win the Michigan and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	81	58¢	$47	0x816173…
10-29 08:31:07	Will the Opportunity Party win fewer than 4 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Yes	BUY	20	15¢	$3	0xe54d5d…
10-29 08:12:26	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	Yes	SELL	504	66¢	$331	0x8195cf…
10-29 08:12:25	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	SELL	241	67¢	$161	0x4e4f39…
10-29 07:50:37	Will the US birth rate in 2026 be 52.0 or higher?	No	BUY	254	25¢	$64	0xf2cb14…
10-29 07:41:17	Will Core PCE YoY be 3.0% in September?	No	SELL	100	83¢	$83	0x0f7adf…
10-29 06:51:44	Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by November 13?	Yes	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x1b5949…
10-29 06:49:55	Will AP call US Senate control by November 6, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	39	25¢	$10	0x17ed11…
10-29 06:44:49	Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	SELL	20	87¢	$17	0xc15663…
10-29 06:43:08	Will PP win fewer than 120 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	48	75¢	$36	0xd877a1…
10-29 06:40:23	Alberta snap election called by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	6	81¢	$5	0xdbc4b6…
10-29 06:10:16	Will Serbia call its presidential election by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	60	62¢	$37	0x68387c…
10-29 05:58:52	Democratic Senate odds 66-68% on October 30?	Yes	BUY	29	45¢	$13	0x5748fa…
10-29 05:38:47	Will Vox win 66-70 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0xda084e…
10-29 04:39:43	Will the US birth rate in 2026 be 52.5 or higher?	No	BUY	55	58¢	$32	0x7a90f5…