Realized P&L
+$1.25K
Unrealized P&L
-$52
Hit rate
63.1%
Resolved
345
Trades
2,742
lifetime
Volume
$107.1K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$39
Open exposure
$1.18K
13 positions
First seen
2026-08-23
last 10-27 00:07
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 40 days
Categories
Politics
69% 67% +$1,142
Other
31% 46% +$100
Crypto
0% 50% +$5
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
66 active days in 12wk • peak 153 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +504 $345 65¢ $330 -$15 10-24 20:32
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +501 $257 64¢ $320 +$63 10-26 06:48
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes — +508 $178 45¢ $229 +$50 10-22 21:46
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? No +241 $163 66¢ $158 -$5 10-26 07:14
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028? No +200 $77 36¢ $71 -$6 10-21 10:23
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by at least 30%? No +60 $52 100¢ $60 +$8 09-24 16:08
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia? No +200 $46 4¢ $7 -$39 10-18 18:10
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +6 $5 96¢ $6 +$1 08-24 23:59
Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%? Yes +201 $30 1¢ $1 -$29 10-25 20:08
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%? No +201 $36 1¢ $1 -$35 10-25 20:08
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia? Yes +200 $46 0¢ $0 -$46 10-19 00:39
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes +6 $1 4¢ $0 -$1 08-24 23:59
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%? Yes +3 -$1 1¢ $0 +$1 10-17 19:31