Realized P&L (7d)
-$194
Unrealized P&L
-$40
Hit rate
64.0%
Resolved (7d)
150
Trades (7d)
414
2,759 lifetime
Volume (7d)
$23.9K
$108.4K lifetime
Avg / trade
$39
Open exposure
$1.11K
11 positions
First seen
2026-08-23
last 10-27 10:41
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 41 days
Categories
Politics
69% 66% +$1,130
Other
30% 46% +$100
Crypto
0% 50% +$5
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
66 active days in 12wk • peak 153 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +504 $345 66¢ $331 -$14 10-24 20:32
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate? Yes +501 $257 64¢ $320 +$63 10-26 06:48
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027? Yes +508 $178 42¢ $213 +$35 10-22 21:46
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? No +241 $163 66¢ $160 -$3 10-26 07:14
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028? No +200 $77 36¢ $71 -$6 10-21 10:23
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia? No +200 $46 5¢ $9 -$37 10-18 18:10
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? No +6 $5 96¢ $6 +$1 08-24 23:59
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia? Yes +200 $46 2¢ $3 -$43 10-19 00:39
Will Iliana Iotova win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by less than 10%? No +201 $36 1¢ $1 -$35 10-25 20:08
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? Yes +6 $1 4¢ $0 -$1 08-24 23:59
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%? Yes +3 -$1 1¢ $0 +$1 10-17 19:31