Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L (24h)

-$426

Unrealized P&L

+$230

Hit rate

52.1%

Resolved (24h)

Trades (24h)

3,032 lifetime

Volume (24h)

$4.42K

$124.3K lifetime

Avg / trade

$41

Open exposure

$977

11 positions

First seen

2026-08-23

last 10-31 14:33

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 45 days

Categories

Politics

68% 67% +$712

Other

32% 49% -$27

Crypto

0% 50% +$5

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

70 active days in 12wk • peak 153 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (8) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	+508	$63	73¢	$372	+$309	10-31 02:28
Will Benjamin Netanyahu receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?	No	+297	$134	66¢	$198	+$64	10-27 23:37
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	No	+502	$161	27¢	$133	-$28	10-30 00:12
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	+502	$160	27¢	$133	-$26	10-30 00:12
Will there be no next German Chancellor before 2028?	No	+200	$77	32¢	$65	-$12	10-21 10:23
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	+163	$46	28¢	$45	-$1	10-31 14:33
Israeli Knesset election annulled?	No	+13	$10	96¢	$12	+$2	10-29 11:51
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?	No	+200	$46	5¢	$10	-$36	10-18 18:10
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	No	+6	$5	97¢	$6	+$1	08-24 23:59
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Yes	+200	$46	1¢	$3	-$43	10-19 00:39
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Yes	+6	$1	3¢	$0	-$1	08-24 23:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	9	$2.0K	1,501	1,501	+0	No	+$324	10-25 22:25
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	14	$1.5K	1,502	1,001	+501	open	—	10-30 23:52
Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?	15	$1.3K	1,183	1,183	+0	open	—	10-28 23:27
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Democrats win the Senate?	7	$1.2K	1,002	1,002	+0	open	—	10-28 05:45
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	10	$1.2K	1,451	943	+508	open	—	10-31 02:28
Will the Republicans win Mahoning County in the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	12	$1.1K	782	782	+0	open	—	10-25 04:07
Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?	12	$1.1K	1,046	1,046	+0	open	—	10-30 22:00
Will AP call US House control by November 5, 11:59 PM?	5	$1.1K	838	501	+338	open	—	10-31 09:14
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.0% and 0.1%?	11	$993	870	870	+0	Yes	+$94	10-25 15:55
Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	13	$992	872	872	+0	open	—	10-31 00:33
Will the Democrats win Mahoning County in the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	10	$972	661	661	+0	open	—	10-25 04:07
south dakota passes ballot measure banning noncitizens from voting	8	$890	500	500	+0	open	—	10-17 22:44
Will Republicans win white voters in the Texas Senate election?	4	$865	501	501	+0	open	—	10-14 14:55
Lula x Flávio Bolsonaro debate before second round?	10	$864	621	621	+0	Yes	+$21	10-15 02:01
Will oil be at least $85 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	6	$851	595	595	+0	open	—	10-23 21:31
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Democrats win the Senate?	7	$837	1,006	504	+502	open	—	10-30 00:12
Democratic Senate odds 64-66% on October 23?	9	$827	694	687	+7	No	-$7	10-22 04:20
Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 52.0 and 52.9 in October?	7	$827	608	500	+108	open	—	10-25 03:45
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Oaxaca Congress election?	12	$824	500	500	+0	open	—	10-22 08:52
Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	18	$818	1,003	1,003	+0	No	+$89	10-27 20:51
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Paraná?	4	$814	501	501	+0	Yes	+$156	10-10 16:53
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Pernambuco?	3	$808	501	501	+0	Yes	+$151	10-10 00:53
Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?	6	$768	922	420	+502	open	—	10-30 06:45
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 State of Mexico Congress election?	8	$766	482	482	+0	open	—	10-29 16:55
Will Reps lose Senate Seat in any Trump+10 State and win in a Kamala State?	10	$754	720	720	+0	open	—	10-17 00:57
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Chiapas Congress election?	11	$744	500	500	-0	open	—	10-29 16:10
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico City Congress election?	8	$710	501	501	+0	open	—	10-27 14:59
Will there be no Hormuz agreement or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	2	$710	501	501	+0	open	—	10-26 21:32
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Veracruz Congress election?	5	$709	501	501	+0	open	—	10-23 12:31
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win between 42% and 45% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	7	$703	961	543	+417	No	-$43	10-04 20:47

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-31 16:16:45	Republican House odds hit 8% by November 1?	No	SELL	64	100¢	$64	0x1e2517…
10-31 14:33:18	Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	163	28¢	$46	0x324857…
10-31 13:51:33	Will PSOE win the most seats in Catalonia in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	86	12¢	$10	0xe8d02e…
10-31 13:51:04	Republican Senate odds hit 30% again by November 1?	No	BUY	134	57¢	$77	0xdbfdb5…
10-31 13:45:31	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?	No	BUY	51	74¢	$38	0x7ffaa5…
10-31 13:13:54	Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 3:59 AM?	No	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0x15b097…
10-31 12:43:52	Republican House odds dip to 6% by November 1?	No	BUY	20	22¢	$4	0x35442d…
10-31 12:33:10	Will Geraldo Alckmin be the next Brazilian Minister of Finance?	Yes	BUY	84	24¢	$20	0xf1954b…
10-31 12:12:00	Will One Nation win the third-most seats in the next New South Wales state election?	Yes	BUY	177	54¢	$96	0x9c8133…
10-31 12:11:58	Will Liberal–National win the third-most seats in the next New South Wales state election?	Yes	SELL	501	31¢	$155	0xd43b85…
10-31 10:41:21	Republican Senate odds hit 30% again by November 1?	No	BUY	366	43¢	$158	0xa3e3bb…
10-31 10:40:58	Will PSOE win the most seats in Catalonia in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	50	11¢	$6	0x46ff46…
10-31 10:05:10	Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	BUY	19	62¢	$12	0xb4e7bb…
10-31 10:02:48	Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 3:59 AM?	No	BUY	20	48¢	$10	0xec3de1…
10-31 09:33:13	Republican House odds dip to 6% by November 1?	No	BUY	178	10¢	$18	0x807186…
10-31 09:14:21	Will AP call US House control by November 5, 11:59 PM?	Yes	BUY	338	80¢	$270	0x44b0f1…
10-31 08:30:25	Will US births in 2026 be between 3.53 million and 3.56 million?	Yes	BUY	35	20¢	$7	0x8b2484…
10-31 07:51:01	Will David Jolly underperform Kamala in Florida?	Yes	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0x157cb7…
10-31 07:41:06	Will China GDP growth in Q4 2026 be between 4.0% and 4.3%?	Yes	BUY	188	3¢	$6	0x2188ad…
10-31 07:31:10	Will PSOE win the most seats in Catalonia in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	56	11¢	$6	0x4fec48…
10-31 07:22:55	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xd7a9e4…
10-31 07:22:54	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in October?	Yes	BUY	91	11¢	$10	0x55543d…
10-31 07:20:51	Will JOLTS Job Openings be at least 7.4M in September?	No	SELL	396	77¢	$305	0x5f571d…
10-31 06:54:04	Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	BUY	122	54¢	$65	0x11c281…
10-31 06:53:25	Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 3:59 AM?	No	BUY	22	48¢	$11	0xa943ab…
10-31 06:53:25	Will AP call US Senate control by November 13, 11:59 PM?	No	BUY	112	14¢	$16	0x0afe2a…
10-31 06:04:28	Will AP call US House control by November 5, 11:59 PM?	Yes	SELL	230	78¢	$179	0xd0d920…
10-31 04:38:51	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in October?	No	BUY	270	63¢	$170	0xa4721d…
10-31 04:14:15	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?	No	BUY	20	73¢	$15	0xb59c57…
10-31 03:44:18	Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	SELL	123	41¢	$50	0x7aab63…
10-31 03:31:58	Israel Election: Yashar and Likud in coalition?	No	BUY	382	63¢	$239	0x65894e…
10-31 03:30:10	republican house odds hit 8 by november 1	No	BUY	100	54¢	$54	0x47bac5…
10-31 03:10:12	republican house odds dip to 6 by november 1	No	BUY	100	47¢	$47	0x94c7b1…
10-31 03:01:07	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.7% in October?	Yes	SELL	46	2¢	$1	0xe92f03…
10-31 02:43:30	Will PSOE receive between 24% and 26% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	144	15¢	$22	0x0ca206…
10-31 02:28:42	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	BUY	315	71¢	$222	0x737d30…
10-31 01:04:21	Will the Knesset elect a new Speaker by November 13?	Yes	BUY	80	69¢	$55	0xe9eb7f…
10-31 01:02:58	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?	No	BUY	25	73¢	$18	0x1e19fe…
10-31 00:33:27	Jon Ossoff Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	No	SELL	171	52¢	$89	0x9140cd…
10-31 00:33:27	Gavin Newsom Democratic nomination odds leader on October 31?	Yes	SELL	18	52¢	$9	0x0cae9a…
10-30 23:52:31	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	87	76¢	$66	0xb764ff…
10-30 23:32:40	Will Serbia call its presidential election by November 15, 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	13¢	$3	0x7b05b4…
10-30 23:14:25	Will Vox win 56-60 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	30	72¢	$22	0x9a34c5…
10-30 22:10:06	Will US GDP growth in Q4 2026 be less than 1.5%?	Yes	BUY	206	15¢	$31	0x695355…
10-30 22:00:46	Republican House odds hit 12% by October 31?	No	SELL	200	99¢	$197	0xe06b04…
10-30 21:07:28	Will the US birth rate in 2026 be 52.5 or higher?	No	BUY	20	63¢	$13	0x27ea4d…
10-30 20:41:25	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	173	75¢	$130	0x19db4b…
10-30 20:15:52	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	SELL	306	87¢	$267	0xffd6d7…
10-30 19:27:03	Will Democrats win the Michigan, Texas, and Ohio Senate seats?	No	BUY	286	38¢	$108	0x90b1a8…
10-30 19:27:03	Will Democrats win the Michigan and Ohio Senate seats, and Republicans win Texas?	Yes	BUY	21	8¢	$2	0x6bcf6a…
10-30 17:56:22	Will PP receive between 30% and 32% of the vote in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	81	36¢	$29	0x670a75…
10-30 17:47:04	Talarico Texas Senate odds hit 70% by November 2?	No	SELL	32	5¢	$1	0x003e5e…
10-30 17:27:25	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	Yes	BUY	242	73¢	$176	0x575eac…
10-30 17:27:25	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	No	SELL	500	35¢	$177	0x2d5f52…
10-30 17:19:43	Will no Israeli government be formed after the 2026 Knesset election?	Yes	BUY	61	36¢	$22	0xd3dd55…
10-30 17:18:48	Will AP call US House control by November 6, 11:59 PM?	Yes	BUY	203	82¢	$167	0x63f39e…
10-30 17:18:48	Will AP call US House control by November 4, 3:59 AM?	Yes	BUY	200	74¢	$148	0x38c55c…
10-30 17:14:03	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	BUY	237	67¢	$159	0xaee64b…
10-30 17:07:07	Will EH Bildu win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	36	61¢	$22	0xd05bfa…
10-30 16:07:31	Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?	Yes	SELL	139	96¢	$133	0x5f1206…
10-30 15:55:27	Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 1?	Yes	BUY	101	66¢	$67	0x0268e8…
10-30 15:54:12	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Quintana Roo Congress election?	No	BUY	20	16¢	$3	0xebe466…
10-30 15:36:18	Hamilton flips Marshall for Kansas Senate by November 2?	No	SELL	501	11¢	$56	0xe4920f…
10-30 15:27:04	Will PAN win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico City Congress election?	Yes	BUY	145	10¢	$15	0xdad795…
10-30 15:08:42	Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Michoacán Congress election?	Yes	SELL	6	71¢	$4	0x6d2eb6…
10-30 15:07:33	Will there be no Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?	No	SELL	500	70¢	$348	0x70898d…
10-30 15:03:48	Will Camilo Santana be the next Brazilian Chief of Staff?	Yes	BUY	95	55¢	$53	0xda112a…
10-30 14:59:22	Will PP win 132-137 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	142	9¢	$13	0x333767…
10-30 14:12:16	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	SELL	134	39¢	$53	0x7e20a7…
10-30 14:12:16	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	BUY	263	61¢	$161	0x461818…
10-30 14:07:06	Will AP call US House control by November 5, 11:59 PM?	Yes	SELL	270	78¢	$210	0x6c0a9a…
10-30 14:07:06	Will AP call US House control by November 6, 11:59 PM?	Yes	BUY	210	82¢	$173	0x4e0e66…
10-30 14:07:04	Will AP call US House control by November 4, 3:59 AM?	Yes	BUY	179	73¢	$130	0x14a1fd…
10-30 11:56:16	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida Attorney General election?	No	SELL	10	24¢	$2	0xed4e16…
10-30 11:54:45	Closer Senate Race: Minnesota or Mississippi?	Mississippi	SELL	15	55¢	$8	0xe40015…
10-30 11:54:28	Will PSOE win the most seats in Cáceres in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	100	32¢	$32	0x8702b5…
10-30 11:52:31	Will Camilo Santana be the next Brazilian Chief of Staff?	Yes	BUY	91	58¢	$53	0xaadcfe…
10-30 11:39:49	Will ERC win 8-9 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0xeb58f8…
10-30 11:36:25	Will ISM Services PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	No	BUY	120	59¢	$71	0xea3c6f…
10-30 11:36:24	Will ISM Services PMI be between 55.0 and 55.9 in October?	Yes	SELL	21	30¢	$6	0x5da655…
10-30 11:02:52	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	BUY	90	49¢	$44	0x320eb6…
10-30 10:56:28	Will AP call US House control by November 4, 3:59 AM?	Yes	BUY	42	71¢	$30	0xbe92c3…
10-30 10:45:12	Will EH Bildu win exactly 7 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	BUY	140	62¢	$86	0x259b88…
10-30 10:45:10	Will EH Bildu win exactly 8 seats in the 2026 Spanish general election?	No	SELL	30	80¢	$24	0xe06f8f…
10-30 09:32:03	Will ERC win the most seats in Catalonia in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	269	6¢	$16	0xacc5e3…
10-30 08:52:43	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in October?	No	BUY	123	71¢	$88	0x798cd0…
10-30 08:52:43	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in October?	Yes	BUY	111	11¢	$12	0x58aea6…
10-30 08:51:39	Will Canada's GDP growth rate MoM in August 2026 be between 0.4% and 0.5%?	No	SELL	120	95¢	$114	0xc5507d…
10-30 08:40:13	Will PP win the most seats in Cáceres in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	SELL	20	59¢	$12	0x8b0d5f…
10-30 08:40:10	Closer Senate Race: Minnesota or Mississippi?	Mississippi	SELL	96	55¢	$54	0x251bf7…
10-30 07:54:31	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	SELL	218	50¢	$109	0xe32507…
10-30 07:54:31	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	No	BUY	44	51¢	$23	0x71db7e…
10-30 07:49:03	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	No	BUY	15	53¢	$8	0x85f391…
10-30 06:45:57	Will Iliana Iotova win the most votes in the second round of the Bulgaria presidential election from abroad?	Yes	BUY	189	8¢	$16	0xa7b1ae…
10-30 06:43:58	Will Democrats win the Michigan and Texas Senate seats?	Yes	SELL	95	58¢	$55	0x4d609b…
10-30 06:32:10	Will John Cornyn endorse Ken Paxton in the Texas Senate Election?	Yes	SELL	30	11¢	$3	0x09d0ba…
10-30 05:26:33	Will PSOE win the most seats in Cáceres in the 2026 Spanish general election?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x5a7028…
10-30 04:51:36	Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	SELL	285	50¢	$142	0x97d19e…
10-30 04:35:25	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.6% in October?	No	BUY	485	28¢	$138	0xe1d2af…
10-30 04:35:25	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in October?	Yes	BUY	502	1¢	$5	0x6b852a…