Knotty-Aftershave — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$1.33K

Unrealized P&L

-$24

Hit rate

25.5%

Resolved

344

Trades

2,343

lifetime

Volume

$18.0K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$98

10 positions

First seen

2026-05-12

last 11-04 07:49

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 96 days

Categories

Other

69% 32% -$960

Politics

15% 15% -$58

Sports

7% 12% -$35

Tech

5% 35% -$60

Pop-Culture

2% 33% -$160

Crypto

2% 42% -$60

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

41 active days in 12wk • peak 76 trades/day

Open positions (10) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	+52	$33	64¢	$34	+$1	10-12 05:40
Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?	No	+52	$41	36¢	$18	-$22	10-12 10:41
Will the Republican Party hold between 180 and 184 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	+17	$14	100¢	$17	+$3	11-04 04:19
Will the Republican Party hold between 175 and 179 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	+17	$4	65¢	$11	+$7	11-04 04:19
Will the Republican Party hold between 170 and 174 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	+10	$12	65¢	$6	-$5	11-04 04:20
Will the Republican Party hold between 175 and 179 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	+17	$13	35¢	$6	-$7	11-04 03:53
Will the Republican Party hold between 170 and 174 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	+10	$1	35¢	$3	+$3	11-04 03:58
Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	No	+2	$2	79¢	$2	$0	10-13 06:20
Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government?	Yes	+2	$0	21¢	$0	+$0	10-08 17:51
Will the Republican Party hold between 180 and 184 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	+17	$3	0¢	$0	-$3	11-04 03:43

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 24?	44	$442	499	401	+98	Yes	-$56	08-23 20:04
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	60	$435	9,504	7,141	+2,363	No	-$156	05-15 10:49
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get less than 20 million views on week 1?	11	$355	472	472	+0	No	-$149	09-03 06:41
Will Beauty And A Beat be the first song performed by Justin Bieber at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?	18	$319	217	222	-5	No	-$11	07-18 15:23
Will Lionel Messi score 3+ goals during the 2027 MLS Sprint Season window?	17	$263	153	153	+0	open	—	09-12 15:01
Will Grand Theft Auto VI Extended Look get between 20 and 22 million views on week 1?	2	$232	202	202	+0	Yes	+$95	09-03 04:42
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 360m and 370m?	25	$220	262	174	+88	Yes	+$7	08-03 05:55
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12?	16	$219	175	133	+42	No	-$26	06-12 20:21
us x iran effective ceasefire by september 7	3	$218	202	202	+0	Yes	-$4	09-04 15:55
iran invades kuwait by august 31 20260720015031546	6	$216	211	211	+0	No	-$2	07-20 05:29
grpn quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 05 2026 neg0pt06	13	$204	153	153	+0	Yes	-$18	07-27 08:27
Will Dynamite be the first song performed by BTS at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?	19	$192	161	161	+0	Yes	+$6	07-18 14:32
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 20°C on September 9?	24	$180	254	98	+155	No	-$39	09-09 14:14
Will the People’s Bank of China not change rates by September 30?	25	$180	197	197	+0	Yes	-$4	08-10 16:16
Will "Drop Dead - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of August 8?	10	$175	170	189	-20	No	+$47	07-31 19:48
Will the Centre Party (C) be in the next Swedish government?	20	$175	212	108	+104	open	—	10-12 10:41
Will "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 350m and 360m?	19	$165	240	152	+88	No	-$13	08-03 06:05
trump approval rating at least 37pt0 on october 16 2026	8	$161	96	96	+0	Yes	+$1	10-14 05:20
Who will win the gold medal in Men's BMX Park at X Games New Orleans 2026?	17	$158	134	134	+0	No	-$1	07-27 00:04
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in July 2026 be between 1.8% and 2.0%?	11	$157	143	143	+0	No	+$1	08-13 18:02
Will OpenAI reset Codex weekly usage limit by September 22?	23	$156	303	303	+0	Yes	-$20	09-22 08:59
mcd quarterly earnings nongaap eps 08 05 2026 3pt33	17	$152	180	173	+7	Yes	-$15	08-04 03:25
Will the People’s Bank of China decrease rates by September 30?	30	$145	115	115	+0	No	+$1	08-10 11:37
trump approval rating at least 37pt8 on october 16 2026	13	$144	116	116	+0	Yes	-$1	10-14 05:33
Will Despacito be the first song performed by Justin Bieber at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final Halftime Show?	16	$143	207	79	+128	No	-$7	07-19 16:21
Will Apnimed's market cap be between $600M and $720M at market close on IPO day?	12	$139	100	100	+0	No	$0	07-31 18:31
us announces new iran agreementceasefire extension by june 19	19	$134	145	145	+0	Yes	-$5	06-12 09:47
ionq quarterly earnings gaap eps 08 05 2026 neg0pt59	9	$133	84	84	+0	No	-$2	07-24 09:39
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?	11	$132	149	149	+0	No	-$9	09-14 06:32
trump approval rating at least 37pt2 on october 16 2026	12	$131	84	84	+0	Yes	-$1	10-13 14:02

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-04 07:49:31	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?	Yes	SELL	11	28¢	$3	0x790940…
11-04 07:49:07	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?	Yes	SELL	52	36¢	$19	0xf09662…
11-04 07:49:07	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x1c3842…
11-04 05:38:51	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x994d1c…
11-04 05:36:03	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x7d1730…
11-04 04:52:16	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	43¢	$9	0xbd3999…
11-04 04:52:16	Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of January 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	41¢	$9	0x2460d7…
11-04 04:31:22	Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 12:59 AM?	Yes	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x1d71f7…
11-04 04:26:54	Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 12:59 AM?	No	BUY	21	21¢	$4	0x98319d…
11-04 04:22:07	Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 12:59 AM?	No	SELL	29	21¢	$6	0xad4c4d…
11-04 04:21:48	Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 3:59 AM?	No	SELL	35	6¢	$2	0x7674be…
11-04 04:21:21	Will the Republican Party hold 190 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	15	0¢	$0	0x32c2ca…
11-04 04:20:55	Will the Republican Party hold below 170 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	17	25¢	$4	0xba922a…
11-04 04:20:22	Will the Republican Party hold between 170 and 174 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	11	65¢	$7	0x0eeb57…
11-04 04:19:43	Will the Republican Party hold between 175 and 179 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	4	16¢	$1	0x46f127…
11-04 04:19:00	Will the Republican Party hold between 180 and 184 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	24	83¢	$20	0x83b5be…
11-04 04:18:22	Will the Republican Party hold between 180 and 184 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	20	83¢	$17	0x87c511…
11-04 04:18:21	Will the Republican Party hold between 185 and 189 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x7a1fd9…
11-04 04:18:21	Will the Republican Party hold below 170 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x28e3ea…
11-04 04:18:21	Will the Republican Party hold between 185 and 189 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	20	12¢	$2	0x25f392…
11-04 04:16:22	Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 3:59 AM?	No	SELL	7	13¢	$1	0x25b3ae…
11-04 04:15:42	Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 3:59 AM?	No	BUY	21	17¢	$4	0xa2cdf1…
11-04 04:14:00	Will the Republican Party hold between 170 and 174 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0xf5d698…
11-04 04:12:52	Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 12:59 AM?	No	BUY	21	51¢	$11	0xee297c…
11-04 04:08:19	Will the Republican Party hold 190 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x56ae12…
11-04 04:08:19	Will the Republican Party hold 190 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	11	2¢	$0	0x403521…
11-04 04:06:21	Will the Republican Party hold 190 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	5	2¢	$0	0x19f59a…
11-04 04:03:21	Will the Republican Party hold below 170 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	21	35¢	$7	0x9a80a8…
11-04 03:58:10	Will the Republican Party hold between 170 and 174 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	10	10¢	$1	0x257ad6…
11-04 03:57:49	Will the Republican Party hold below 170 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0x848a30…
11-04 03:57:33	Will the Republican Party hold between 175 and 179 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	21	21¢	$4	0xd38f3d…
11-04 03:54:34	Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 12:59 AM?	Yes	BUY	21	47¢	$10	0x26200a…
11-04 03:53:18	Will the Republican Party hold between 175 and 179 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0xcc5393…
11-04 03:52:37	Will the Republican Party hold between 175 and 179 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0xc88c0c…
11-04 03:52:37	Will the Republican Party hold between 180 and 184 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xc73f9f…
11-04 03:52:37	Will the Republican Party hold 190 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	15	97¢	$14	0xbea9b0…
11-04 03:50:48	Will the Republican Party hold between 180 and 184 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	15	84¢	$13	0xbc1c42…
11-04 03:50:30	Will the Republican Party hold below 170 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	15	32¢	$5	0x82e979…
11-04 03:50:12	Will the Republican Party hold 190 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	21	97¢	$20	0x02e954…
11-04 03:48:24	Will the Republican Party hold below 170 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	21	31¢	$7	0xb15325…
11-04 03:44:37	Will the Republican Party hold between 185 and 189 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	21	15¢	$3	0x52b42f…
11-04 03:43:03	Will the Republican Party hold between 180 and 184 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0xfbd696…
11-04 03:36:51	Will AP call US Senate control by November 4, 12:59 AM?	No	BUY	8	51¢	$4	0x13324b…
11-04 03:18:18	Will the Republican Party hold 190 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	21	4¢	$1	0x06de93…
11-04 03:09:00	Will the Republican Party hold below 170 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	SELL	21	72¢	$15	0x1b2b56…
11-04 03:08:31	Will the Republican Party hold 190 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	21	4¢	$1	0xdd46a4…
11-04 03:06:15	Will the Republican Party hold between 175 and 179 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	SELL	21	20¢	$4	0x5a74ff…
11-04 03:06:15	Will the Republican Party hold below 170 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	No	BUY	21	72¢	$15	0x1d232a…
11-04 03:03:24	Will the Republican Party hold between 175 and 179 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	21	20¢	$4	0xfb125f…
11-04 03:01:42	Will the Republican Party hold between 180 and 184 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	5	18¢	$1	0xc8e560…
10-25 16:49:15	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 42% or higher?	No	SELL	64	30¢	$19	0x170df7…
10-25 16:48:11	Will Derek Giberson win the 2026 Oshawa mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x925ef7…
10-25 13:33:36	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 42% or higher?	No	BUY	12	49¢	$6	0x1c9809…
10-25 13:33:35	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 42% or higher?	No	BUY	10	49¢	$5	0x3b695a…
10-25 13:32:18	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 42% or higher?	No	BUY	20	54¢	$11	0x06abcf…
10-25 13:31:15	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 42% or higher?	No	BUY	22	65¢	$14	0x0124f5…
10-25 13:29:11	Will Derek Giberson win the 2026 Oshawa mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xe3a4a0…
10-22 00:32:44	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 22?	No	SELL	0	22¢	$0	0x015251…
10-22 00:32:39	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 22?	No	SELL	15	22¢	$3	0x653cfd…
10-22 00:32:30	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 22?	No	SELL	7	22¢	$1	0x0c6e41…
10-21 19:20:32	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	3	15¢	$0	0xbf5129…
10-21 18:31:00	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 22?	Yes	SELL	19	15¢	$3	0x8b08c9…
10-21 18:30:51	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 22?	No	BUY	9	16¢	$1	0x59faf2…
10-21 18:30:51	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	22	12¢	$3	0x2aceae…
10-21 18:30:36	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 22?	No	BUY	13	16¢	$2	0x94dc84…
10-21 18:22:36	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 22?	No	BUY	11	17¢	$2	0x879903…
10-21 17:33:06	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on October 22?	No	BUY	22	26¢	$6	0x8722d0…
10-21 17:33:06	Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on October 22?	Yes	BUY	22	16¢	$4	0x854620…
10-20 09:11:42	Will Pixverse have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	20	90¢	$18	0x77c6d5…
10-20 09:00:31	Will Pixverse have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	No	BUY	20	91¢	$18	0x88b046…
10-20 08:48:08	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on October 20?	No	SELL	44	2¢	$1	0x3e0713…
10-20 08:22:31	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on October 20?	No	BUY	22	2¢	$0	0xa0d95a…
10-20 08:01:56	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on October 20?	No	BUY	3	5¢	$0	0x81b945…
10-20 08:01:47	Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 20°C on October 20?	No	BUY	19	5¢	$1	0xbf8b1f…
10-17 06:07:35	lowest temperature in hong kong on october 18 2026 26c	No	SELL	5	34¢	$2	0x036807…
10-17 06:07:14	lowest temperature in hong kong on october 18 2026 26c	No	SELL	35	34¢	$12	0xce2e4a…
10-17 04:37:23	lowest temperature in hong kong on october 18 2026 26c	No	BUY	21	42¢	$9	0xeb9386…
10-17 04:37:23	lowest temperature in hong kong on october 18 2026 27c	No	SELL	19	62¢	$12	0x55cbd3…
10-17 04:17:08	lowest temperature in hong kong on october 18 2026 27c	No	SELL	2	62¢	$1	0x5c730c…
10-16 14:48:58	lowest temperature in hong kong on october 18 2026 27c	No	SELL	1	64¢	$1	0xae04cb…
10-16 14:40:16	lowest temperature in hong kong on october 18 2026 26c	No	BUY	21	55¢	$12	0xd0b2a3…
10-16 14:36:40	lowest temperature in hong kong on october 18 2026 27c	No	BUY	0	59¢	$0	0x9c68bb…
10-16 14:26:45	lowest temperature in hong kong on october 18 2026 27c	No	BUY	22	62¢	$14	0xb7419f…
10-16 14:14:45	lowest temperature in hong kong on october 18 2026 26c	No	BUY	22	56¢	$12	0x9bf00d…
10-16 14:06:51	lowest temperature in hong kong on october 18 2026 29c	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xf5fa45…
10-16 14:06:19	lowest temperature in hong kong on october 18 2026 22c	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0xef43b8…
10-16 14:06:15	lowest temperature in hong kong on october 18 2026 21corbelow	Yes	BUY	5	1¢	$0	0x984a49…
10-15 05:34:31	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on October 16?	No	SELL	44	60¢	$26	0x3499eb…
10-15 05:32:37	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 16?	Yes	SELL	13	6¢	$1	0xaf9d5e…
10-15 05:32:16	Will the highest temperature in Houston be 75°F or below on October 16?	No	SELL	2	82¢	$1	0x453627…
10-15 05:32:14	Will the highest temperature in Houston be 75°F or below on October 16?	No	SELL	6	82¢	$5	0x4db7e7…
10-14 19:12:25	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 16?	No	SELL	43	70¢	$30	0x2d3cb4…
10-14 19:11:16	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on October 16?	No	SELL	9	80¢	$8	0x9861ca…
10-14 19:10:30	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on October 16?	No	SELL	2	81¢	$2	0x56b742…
10-14 19:10:27	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on October 16?	No	SELL	10	81¢	$8	0xd730a3…
10-14 11:26:41	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on October 16?	No	BUY	22	80¢	$18	0x2ea851…
10-14 10:49:52	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on October 16?	Yes	BUY	13	14¢	$2	0xff4aae…
10-14 10:49:52	Will the highest temperature in Houston be 75°F or below on October 16?	No	SELL	13	97¢	$13	0xac6ac0…
10-14 10:49:50	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 16?	No	BUY	21	69¢	$14	0x476b33…
10-14 10:49:50	Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 78-79°F on October 16?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x15f46a…