Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$34

Unrealized P&L

-$30

Hit rate

68.5%

Resolved

Trades

240

lifetime

Volume

$2.41K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$10

Open exposure

$60

8 positions

First seen

2026-09-25

last 10-30 18:36

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 15 days

Categories

Other

71% 65% -$42

Politics

28% 80% +$8

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

32 active days in 12wk • peak 46 trades/day

Open positions (8) Resolved markets (20) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	+42	$13	26¢	$11	-$2	10-22 12:43
Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	+43	$13	26¢	$11	-$2	10-29 06:41
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	+10	$9	93¢	$10	+$0	10-23 07:55
Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+36	$15	26¢	$10	-$6	09-28 17:45
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	+25	$11	31¢	$8	-$3	10-26 10:24
Will Dejan Šoškić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	+10	$9	41¢	$4	-$4	10-25 08:06
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+11	$0	28¢	$3	+$3	10-30 18:36
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.75% or higher before 2027?	Yes	+175	$20	2¢	$3	-$16	10-01 17:50

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 15?	9	$128	117	117	+0	Yes	+$13	10-06 09:14
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	7	$123	106	67	+39	No	-$4	10-16 14:28
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	11	$106	144	119	+25	Yes	+$2	10-19 19:36
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	8	$71	182	182	+0	No	-$18	09-30 18:10
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	6	$68	54	54	-0	open	—	10-29 13:24
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	7	$65	82	82	+0	open	—	10-05 12:39
Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	7	$64	182	170	+12	No	+$0	10-14 13:55
US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	6	$63	744	630	+114	Yes	$0	09-29 18:15
US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	5	$62	47	47	+0	open	—	10-05 12:29
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	5	$45	37	37	+0	open	—	10-29 13:25
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	4	$42	83	72	+11	open	—	10-30 18:36
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 30?	4	$42	29	29	+0	open	—	10-05 12:37
Will three people dissent the October Fed decision?	2	$40	24	21	+3	No	+$3	10-28 17:52
Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	2	$39	25	22	+3	No	+$3	10-14 12:37
Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	5	$38	21	19	+2	No	+$2	10-18 20:34
Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	2	$37	27	23	+4	No	+$4	10-12 16:32
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	2	$36	23	23	+0	Yes	$0	09-29 04:49
US Government removes public access to another Anthropic AI model in 2026?	2	$35	19	19	+0	open	—	10-05 12:30
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	2	$35	20	18	+2	No	+$2	10-25 21:52
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in September?	2	$35	53	46	+7	Yes	+$7	10-11 11:57
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in September?	4	$35	21	18	+3	No	+$3	10-14 10:55
Will Warsh say "Oversight" during October Press Conference?	2	$35	23	20	+3	No	+$3	10-28 19:04
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	2	$34	96	96	+0	open	—	09-29 15:42
Will Giorgia Meloni be the next Prime Minister of Italy?	2	$33	32	32	+0	open	—	10-05 12:30
Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	2	$31	23	20	+3	No	+$3	10-20 10:48
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on October 23, 2026?	2	$31	25	22	+3	Yes	+$0	10-22 01:37
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?	2	$31	19	16	+3	No	+$3	10-14 12:30
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?	2	$29	16	16	+0	open	—	10-05 12:31
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in September?	2	$28	16	14	+2	No	+$2	10-14 12:30
military action against saudi oil pipeline east west by october 15	2	$28	17	15	+2	No	+$2	10-14 14:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-30 18:36:10	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	17	30¢	$5	0x002107…
10-30 14:06:40	Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	SELL	7	42¢	$3	0xfed091…
10-29 13:41:44	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	SELL	12	96¢	$11	0x9b0be4…
10-29 13:25:50	Will the 2-year Treasury yield dip below 4.40% before 2027?	No	SELL	2	33¢	$1	0x6e911b…
10-29 13:25:43	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.20% before 2027?	No	SELL	1	43¢	$1	0xe6e584…
10-29 13:25:37	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?	Yes	SELL	1	42¢	$1	0x12af46…
10-29 13:25:29	Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	11¢	$1	0x5ba702…
10-29 13:25:01	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	SELL	5	59¢	$3	0xb41a4a…
10-29 13:24:55	US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	No	SELL	3	60¢	$2	0xe75ed3…
10-29 13:24:47	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x080dd2…
10-29 13:24:38	Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	3	70¢	$2	0x43e69d…
10-29 13:23:50	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	No	SELL	4	71¢	$3	0x363b7c…
10-29 13:23:37	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	Yes	SELL	4	68¢	$3	0x22b8ea…
10-29 11:34:07	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?	Yes	SELL	19	43¢	$8	0xacc176…
10-29 06:41:14	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	10	32¢	$3	0x0235e0…
10-28 19:04:38	Will Warsh say "Oversight" during October Press Conference?	No	SELL	20	89¢	$17	0x9966e6…
10-28 17:52:47	Will three people dissent the October Fed decision?	No	SELL	21	96¢	$20	0x9ffb9e…
10-27 18:15:32	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win Brazil, Benjamin Netanyahu become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate?	No	BUY	10	84¢	$8	0x57aa73…
10-27 17:33:59	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	No	SELL	14	90¢	$13	0x12b857…
10-26 18:50:38	Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x1d80e4…
10-26 10:36:41	Will the Republican Party hold 190 or more House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x00efe0…
10-26 10:33:05	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-25 House election by 35%-40%?	No	BUY	12	90¢	$10	0x88a94f…
10-26 10:33:00	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 NY-25 House election by 30%-35%?	No	BUY	14	73¢	$10	0xcc4834…
10-26 10:31:59	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 MN-04 House election by 40%-45%?	No	BUY	13	83¢	$10	0x71207f…
10-26 10:29:18	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 AL-04 House election by 50%-55%?	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0x5e47eb…
10-26 10:24:53	Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	42¢	$11	0x16d8d9…
10-26 09:05:59	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?	Yes	BUY	20	37¢	$7	0x9ef601…
10-26 08:46:44	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	13	72¢	$9	0xb91cb3…
10-26 08:36:30	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 24, 2026?	No	SELL	4	72¢	$3	0xa586c7…
10-26 00:05:33	Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the November meeting?	Yes	SELL	26	29¢	$8	0x16e462…
10-25 23:25:57	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	No	SELL	13	35¢	$5	0xc4772a…
10-25 23:25:57	Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the November meeting?	No	SELL	11	35¢	$4	0x836c38…
10-25 21:52:33	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	SELL	18	99¢	$18	0x4e82b6…
10-25 08:06:00	Will Dejan Šoškić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia?	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x07a92f…
10-24 14:58:50	Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	SELL	25	43¢	$11	0xadd1c0…
10-24 12:41:35	Will 0 Independents be elected to Congress in 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	57¢	$8	0x37f48f…
10-24 12:40:14	Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TX-04 House election by 15%-20%?	No	BUY	12	79¢	$10	0xe09cd4…
10-24 12:29:20	Will the Republican Party win the FL-04 House seat?	Yes	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0xb3e3b8…
10-24 09:18:35	Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x97e905…
10-24 06:30:17	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by December 31?	No	SELL	13	72¢	$10	0xdca45d…
10-23 21:59:11	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	26	31¢	$8	0xdc3f8c…
10-23 21:59:11	Will there be no Hormuz agreement by October 23 or oil at least $80, and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	7	30¢	$2	0xc14987…
10-23 19:23:44	Will Trump say "Tariff" 6+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	Yes	SELL	16	61¢	$10	0xb35b76…
10-23 17:01:50	Will Trump say "Tariff" 6+ times during his Midterm Rally in Florida?	Yes	BUY	17	53¢	$9	0xa62f16…
10-23 13:05:23	Will the Texas Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?	No	SELL	10	84¢	$8	0xec0dad…
10-23 09:16:09	Will Republicans hold 47–49 Senate seats and 193–207 House seats after the 2026 midterms?	No	BUY	12	72¢	$9	0xa761d6…
10-23 07:55:24	US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by November 2?	No	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0xf84d15…
10-23 07:37:35	Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	12	85¢	$10	0x99658a…
10-23 06:40:51	Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?	Yes	BUY	29	37¢	$11	0x793a2a…
10-22 19:43:53	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 30?	No	BUY	32	36¢	$12	0x322b5a…
10-22 17:28:24	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	20	62¢	$12	0xfbfe2d…
10-22 12:43:57	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	No	BUY	16	78¢	$13	0xb699e8…
10-22 12:43:51	Will oil be at least $80 on November 2 and the Republicans win the Senate?	Yes	BUY	42	32¢	$13	0x23b5c7…
10-22 02:16:59	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 22, 2026?	No	BUY	28	51¢	$14	0x0f682b…
10-22 02:05:03	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	No	BUY	40	39¢	$16	0x63c9a3…
10-22 01:37:30	Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on October 23, 2026?	No	SELL	22	72¢	$15	0xbe1543…
10-22 00:44:03	Will total votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Senator from South Carolina be between 1,600,000 and 1,800,000?	Yes	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x3ab138…
10-21 19:14:11	Will the Texas Democrat perform best among these tossup Senate races?	No	BUY	21	73¢	$16	0xdd5fe7…
10-21 18:58:44	Will Trump lower tariffs on Canada by October 31?	No	BUY	10	87¢	$9	0x8a119e…
10-20 10:48:47	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	No	SELL	20	80¢	$16	0x02b7d9…
10-20 10:19:17	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in October?	Yes	SELL	12	52¢	$6	0x3187a0…
10-20 06:01:05	Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	25	62¢	$15	0xb78400…
10-19 23:15:06	Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	5	55¢	$3	0x2efb94…
10-19 19:36:12	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	19	85¢	$16	0x28e0ab…
10-19 11:13:00	Will the Bank of Korea hike by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	10	55¢	$6	0x572eb8…
10-18 20:34:48	Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$7	0xfd6607…
10-18 20:34:41	Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	SELL	8	99¢	$8	0xe2c5af…
10-18 06:00:51	Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0xc9f3d1…
10-18 03:59:08	Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	SELL	2	99¢	$2	0x995c4b…
10-17 07:21:08	Will 190-209 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	23	69¢	$16	0x6d338b…
10-16 19:17:23	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	Yes	SELL	8	65¢	$6	0x42a221…
10-16 14:28:07	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	19	87¢	$16	0x17de1c…
10-16 11:18:10	Will Warsh say "Oversight" during October Press Conference?	No	BUY	23	77¢	$17	0xf12a9e…
10-15 23:33:55	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$13	0x054c52…
10-15 18:17:43	Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in October?	Yes	BUY	14	45¢	$6	0xffb8c8…
10-14 21:41:28	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 8–12%?	No	BUY	20	88¢	$18	0x4dc683…
10-14 19:47:48	Will 35-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	21	90¢	$19	0x2c9f02…
10-14 19:47:39	Will three people dissent the October Fed decision?	No	BUY	24	83¢	$20	0x81b3bc…
10-14 14:57:39	military action against saudi oil pipeline east west by october 15	No	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0xc2a265…
10-14 13:55:57	Will the Fed Hike–Hike–Pause in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	Yes	SELL	148	20¢	$29	0x69945c…
10-14 12:37:53	Will 30-34 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	SELL	22	91¢	$20	0x88e17f…
10-14 12:30:20	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	No	SELL	38	28¢	$11	0x1f4064…
10-14 12:30:14	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.3% in September?	No	SELL	14	99¢	$14	0x4c8b31…
10-14 12:30:09	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.1% in September?	No	SELL	16	95¢	$15	0x9b9922…
10-14 10:55:20	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in September?	No	SELL	8	97¢	$8	0x1c2a87…
10-14 10:55:19	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in September?	No	SELL	4	97¢	$4	0x46fd57…
10-14 10:55:19	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.7% in September?	No	SELL	5	97¢	$5	0x1c5ab6…
10-14 08:55:02	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 16, 2026?	No	BUY	23	53¢	$12	0x95b082…
10-14 08:30:26	Will 170-189 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between October 12-October 18?	No	BUY	15	71¢	$11	0xc89563…
10-14 01:30:17	Will China’s CPI increase by at least 1.1% over the 12 month period ending in September 2026?	No	SELL	14	84¢	$12	0xa33426…
10-13 11:51:59	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 13, 2026?	Yes	SELL	18	65¢	$12	0x7bcb09…
10-13 10:22:11	Shipping targeted in Hormuz on October 13, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	56¢	$12	0xae243a…
10-13 08:02:32	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	11	55¢	$6	0x48dbb9…
10-13 08:02:31	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	9	55¢	$5	0xb18021…
10-12 20:41:56	Will Iran target an Arab country by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	23	47¢	$11	0x2ab5bb…
10-12 16:32:57	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	SELL	23	79¢	$18	0x926ca8…
10-12 09:34:20	Will China’s CPI increase by at least 1.1% over the 12 month period ending in September 2026?	No	BUY	16	73¢	$12	0xf11e18…
10-12 06:22:30	Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in September?	Yes	BUY	23	50¢	$12	0x7d77b7…
10-11 18:12:03	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?	No	BUY	16	86¢	$13	0x713220…
10-11 18:11:57	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23?	Yes	BUY	10	56¢	$5	0x9712e5…