Twin-Believer — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

-$221

Unrealized P&L

+$22

Hit rate

51.9%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

512

2,139 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$9.11K

$27.6K lifetime

Avg / trade

$13

Open exposure

$40

1 position

First seen

2026-04-25

last 11-11 10:09

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 32 days

Categories

Crypto

55% 67% -$150

Other

41% 52% -$960

Sports

4% 54% +$156

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

25 active days in 12wk • peak 202 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Dota 2: CyberHero vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner	Inner Circle		+40	$18	98¢	$40	+$22	11-11 10:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C or higher on May 14?	16	$589	324	324	+0	No	-$11	05-13 07:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	7	$581	1,289	0	+1,289	Down	+$46	11-11 02:25
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C or higher on May 13?	28	$529	328	326	+2	Yes	-$67	05-13 06:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	17	$400	457	0	+457	Down	+$57	10-31 04:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET	18	$389	697	0	+697	Up	-$389	10-31 10:14
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C or higher on May 14?	48	$360	290	276	+13	No	-$40	05-13 03:29
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on May 13?	47	$347	695	99	+596	No	-$253	05-13 17:01
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET	27	$342	471	0	+471	Up	+$128	10-31 07:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET	41	$323	995	0	+995	Down	-$233	11-06 01:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	28	$316	1,362	0	+1,362	Up	-$63	11-02 00:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	9	$300	1,030	0	+1,030	Up	-$300	11-11 03:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET	36	$298	639	0	+639	Up	+$217	11-04 11:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET	35	$290	368	0	+368	Up	-$101	11-04 19:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 27, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	26	$287	468	0	+468	Up	+$181	10-27 23:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	3	$286	971	0	+971	Up	-$286	11-10 09:51
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 36°C or higher on May 13?	13	$281	164	151	+13	No	-$7	05-13 05:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	36	$280	915	0	+915	Down	-$194	11-05 01:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	36	$280	424	0	+424	Down	-$103	11-03 23:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET	24	$266	342	0	+342	Up	+$10	11-04 23:29
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 4, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET	42	$265	348	0	+348	Down	-$61	11-04 18:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 31, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET	31	$262	633	0	+633	Down	-$262	10-31 09:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	2	$243	995	0	+995	Down	+$753	11-10 07:46
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	21	$241	557	0	+557	Down	-$13	11-06 01:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET	23	$236	257	0	+257	Up	+$21	11-03 06:44
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 33°C or higher on May 12?	8	$227	219	29	+189	Yes	-$173	05-12 17:55
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 3, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	26	$219	832	0	+832	Up	-$148	11-03 17:14
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 30, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET	23	$212	305	0	+305	Up	+$93	10-30 23:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 1, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET	9	$200	282	0	+282	Down	+$82	11-01 16:11
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on May 13?	3	$200	108	108	+0	No	$0	05-13 04:43
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 5, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	5	$200	295	0	+295	Down	-$200	11-05 07:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-11 10:09:15	Dota 2: CyberHero vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner	Inner Circle	BUY	40	44¢	$18	0xdbc5dd…
11-11 03:57:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	33¢	$5	0xd837b2…
11-11 03:57:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	31	33¢	$10	0xeafd68…
11-11 03:57:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	56	33¢	$19	0x5fda26…
11-11 03:57:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0xc344c7…
11-11 03:57:09	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	27	38¢	$10	0x33873f…
11-11 03:57:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0x92fabe…
11-11 03:57:07	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	10	39¢	$4	0x765922…
11-11 03:56:03	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	171	44¢	$75	0x6e0ad2…
11-11 03:55:01	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET	Down	BUY	677	24¢	$160	0x4f8b29…
11-11 02:25:57	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	26	48¢	$12	0x99bdfa…
11-11 02:25:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0xcad57a…
11-11 02:25:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	97	57¢	$56	0xb9e288…
11-11 02:21:12	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	56	70¢	$39	0x2bfda5…
11-11 02:18:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	428	39¢	$167	0x1b739b…
11-11 02:15:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	291	46¢	$134	0xa9aa27…
11-11 02:15:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Up	BUY	371	44¢	$162	0x370afd…
11-11 00:38:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET	Down	BUY	364	20¢	$71	0x80d044…
11-11 00:30:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	2,972	1¢	$30	0x5df117…
11-11 00:29:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET	Up	BUY	409	10¢	$42	0x2ce4d0…
11-10 23:33:00	Dota 2: CyberHero vs Power Rangers - Game 2 Winner	CyberHero	BUY	154	64¢	$98	0xee0150…
11-10 20:51:19	Dota 2: Froglings vs Power Rangers (BO3) - 1win Essence Play-in Group A	Froglings	BUY	147	67¢	$98	0x14fb92…
11-10 18:56:07	Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner	HULIGANI	BUY	23	58¢	$13	0x8778c8…
11-10 17:47:33	Dota 2: HULIGANI vs Inner Circle - Game 1 Winner	HULIGANI	BUY	137	72¢	$99	0xde0a04…
11-10 16:22:55	Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Inner Circle (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group B	Zero Tenacity	BUY	242	40¢	$97	0x851217…
11-10 10:12:58	Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner	LEGION	BUY	181	54¢	$98	0x1e2d4f…
11-10 09:51:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	390	31¢	$121	0xa2ed81…
11-10 09:49:39	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	503	28¢	$142	0x00617d…
11-10 09:49:36	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET	Down	BUY	78	29¢	$22	0xa853a1…
11-10 08:48:45	Games Total: O/U 3.5	Under	BUY	76	90¢	$68	0xf6c8f2…
11-10 08:48:37	LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Gromp Esports - Game 2 Winner	Saigon Warriors	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x746140…
11-10 08:48:34	LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Gromp Esports - Game 2 Winner	Saigon Warriors	BUY	106	94¢	$100	0x4344af…
11-10 08:44:31	Game Handicap: SGW (-2.5) vs Gromp Esports (+2.5)	Saigon Warriors	BUY	114	87¢	$99	0x1cd2f6…
11-10 08:24:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	188	6¢	$12	0xa1332b…
11-10 08:23:49	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET	Up	BUY	459	12¢	$55	0x33d8fd…
11-10 07:46:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	328	23¢	$75	0x2e28dd…
11-10 07:46:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 10, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET	Down	BUY	668	25¢	$167	0x1dc3ac…
11-10 01:41:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	598	11¢	$67	0xbe7b6b…
11-10 01:40:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	85	19¢	$16	0x52ce55…
11-10 01:40:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	86	18¢	$16	0xb5fc69…
11-10 01:40:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	20	18¢	$4	0x1bc3d1…
11-10 01:40:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	24	15¢	$4	0x87828f…
11-10 01:40:30	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET	Up	BUY	170	10¢	$17	0x496be7…
11-10 01:26:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET	Up	BUY	467	14¢	$65	0x04b77e…
11-09 21:09:18	Dota 2: HULIGANI vs CyberHero - Game 2 Winner	HULIGANI	BUY	207	47¢	$98	0x906210…
11-09 20:32:42	Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Inner Circle - Game 2 Winner	Yakult Brothers	BUY	272	36¢	$97	0x524b79…
11-09 19:16:54	Dota 2: InterActive Philippines vs Team Allied - Game 1 Winner	Team Allied	BUY	212	46¢	$97	0xa218bd…
11-09 17:14:48	Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Ka4kanarskie cyxariki - Game 2 Winner	Power Rangers	BUY	191	51¢	$98	0xc1566c…
11-09 09:05:00	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Up	BUY	90	55¢	$50	0x18e835…
11-09 08:59:37	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 9, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET	Up	BUY	97	51¢	$50	0x01b9cf…
11-08 18:44:15	Dota 2: Nemiga Gaming vs Spirit Academy - Game 2 Winner	Nemiga Gaming	BUY	168	57¢	$96	0xe9650b…
11-08 16:16:55	Dota 2: PlayTime vs LEGION - Game 1 Winner	LEGION	BUY	207	47¢	$98	0x7f835b…
11-08 15:12:22	Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 Winner	Xipto Esports	BUY	144	69¢	$99	0x168525…
11-08 13:55:34	Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Xipto Esports	BUY	137	72¢	$99	0x2bc867…
11-08 11:17:33	Dota 2: CyberHero vs angry birds - Game 2 Winner	angry birds	BUY	195	50¢	$98	0x53a0cf…
11-08 10:14:51	Dota 2: Power Rangers vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner	PlayTime	BUY	137	72¢	$99	0x7c05df…
11-08 09:23:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET	Down	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0xbd3f1d…
11-08 09:00:45	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-11-08 09:00 UTC	Down	BUY	68	73¢	$50	0x72dd18…
11-08 08:36:54	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET	Down	BUY	76	65¢	$50	0xefbf90…
11-08 06:08:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET	Up	BUY	115	43¢	$50	0x6854e3…
11-08 05:53:22	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 8, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET	Down	BUY	69	72¢	$50	0xcd494b…
11-08 02:16:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET	Down	BUY	59	85¢	$50	0x4790d0…
11-08 01:11:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET	Up	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0xb91ce3…
11-08 00:35:37	Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group B	Amaru Gaming	BUY	61	42¢	$25	0x1c2484…
11-07 23:13:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET	Up	BUY	64	78¢	$50	0xcfe539…
11-07 22:44:43	LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner	Gen.G	BUY	67	74¢	$49	0xd5fcc4…
11-07 22:27:00	Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs Invictus Gaming (+2.5)	Gen.G	BUY	94	52¢	$49	0x84db65…
11-07 22:26:54	Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs Invictus Gaming (+2.5)	Gen.G	BUY	94	52¢	$49	0x7137bc…
11-07 20:53:09	Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group B	Amaru Gaming	BUY	255	38¢	$97	0xd89ff1…
11-07 16:22:19	Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs PlayTime (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group A	Xipto Esports	BUY	195	50¢	$98	0x614b29…
11-07 14:24:58	Dota 2: CyberHero vs Ka4kanarskie cyxariki - Game 1 Winner	Ka4kanarskie cyxariki	BUY	212	46¢	$97	0x6f178c…
11-07 13:21:45	Dota 2: HULIGANI vs LEGION (BO3) - 1win Essence Play-in Group B	HULIGANI	BUY	145	68¢	$98	0x462f1d…
11-07 13:14:22	Dota 2: Xipto Esports vs PlayTime - Game 1 Winner	PlayTime	BUY	207	47¢	$98	0x4f05d4…
11-07 00:56:55	Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)	T1	BUY	69	72¢	$49	0xed9c62…
11-07 00:56:21	Game Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5)	T1	BUY	69	71¢	$49	0x6f6f69…
11-07 00:51:55	LoL: Karmine Corp vs T1 - Game 4 Winner	T1	BUY	69	71¢	$49	0x967fc4…
11-06 18:14:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	16	25¢	$4	0xb3e17e…
11-06 18:14:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	13	23¢	$3	0x35900c…
11-06 18:14:27	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	48¢	$3	0x75548c…
11-06 18:14:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	14	59¢	$8	0x1e68ae…
11-06 18:14:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET	Down	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x060d17…
11-06 14:29:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0x6b6a75…
11-06 14:29:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	21	49¢	$10	0x6dfadc…
11-06 14:29:28	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	62¢	$5	0xfacb3d…
11-06 14:29:25	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	21	58¢	$12	0x3c17ec…
11-06 14:29:18	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x6cb267…
11-06 14:29:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	9	48¢	$4	0xc82a07…
11-06 14:29:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	6	67¢	$4	0xc736f0…
11-06 14:29:10	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET	Down	BUY	8	60¢	$5	0x8e89b7…
11-06 12:14:33	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	9	91¢	$8	0x47d078…
11-06 12:14:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET	Up	BUY	133	90¢	$119	0x8bdcdf…
11-06 06:59:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	94¢	$5	0xdc842e…
11-06 06:59:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	97¢	$7	0x630bfe…
11-06 06:59:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	7	94¢	$6	0xd9b9ad…
11-06 06:59:45	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x2f559e…
11-06 06:59:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	6	94¢	$5	0xee31fe…
11-06 06:59:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	9	93¢	$8	0x4c2b98…
11-06 06:59:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	95¢	$10	0x1aafca…
11-06 06:59:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	14	90¢	$13	0x132ed4…
11-06 06:59:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - November 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET	Up	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0x0dcc16…