Austere-Storytelling — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$4.80K

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

97.9%

Resolved

1,850

Trades

5,711

lifetime

Volume

$1.89M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$330

Open exposure

$191

1 position

First seen

2026-01-01

last 11-09 08:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 278 days

Categories

Crypto

76% 98% -$5,742

Other

23% 99% +$930

Politics

0% 96% -$1

Sports

0% 100% +$12

Tech

0% 100% +$1

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

75 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on November 9?	No		+192	$191	99¢	$191	-$1	11-09 08:59

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin up or down february 19 1pm et	33	$18.7K	11,495	7,281	+4,214	Up	+$41	02-19 18:57
bitcoin up or down march 12 6am et	179	$14.0K	7,000	7,000	+0	Up	+$5	03-12 10:58
ethereum up or down on january 11	3	$12.8K	6,855	6,054	+801	Up	+$43	01-11 16:57
epl mun lee 2026 04 13 mun	18	$12.7K	6,400	6,399	+1	No	+$22	04-13 20:52
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23?	2	$11.9K	6,000	6,000	+0	No	+$49	06-23 22:00
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-05 13:00 UTC	19	$11.3K	5,683	5,683	+0	Down	+$7	03-05 16:57
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?	25	$11.1K	5,631	5,631	+0	Yes	+$132	06-19 21:02
ucl rma1 mnc1 2026 03 11 draw	26	$10.7K	5,406	5,403	+3	No	+$7	03-11 21:38
BTC Up/Down 4h · 2026-03-18 12:00 UTC	33	$10.7K	5,382	5,382	+0	Down	+$9	03-18 15:55
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-19 17:15 UTC	17	$8.8K	5,800	2,999	+2,801	Up	+$6	03-19 17:30
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-20 15:45 UTC	5	$8.6K	4,334	4,334	+0	Up	+$30	02-20 15:58
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 15:15 UTC	13	$8.6K	4,300	4,300	+0	Down	+$4	02-09 15:30
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-22 17:30 UTC	67	$8.6K	4,300	4,300	+0	Down	+$39	02-22 17:36
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 21:15 UTC	2	$8.6K	4,300	4,300	+0	Down	+$39	02-09 21:30
bitcoin up or down march 4 4am et	18	$8.4K	5,650	2,800	+2,850	Up	+$6	03-04 10:01
bitcoin up or down march 2 10am et	3	$8.4K	5,620	2,817	+2,803	Up	+$17	03-02 15:48
will bitcoin reach 104k december 29 january 4	2	$8.0K	3,999	3,999	+0	No	+$0	01-04 22:45
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 10?	42	$8.0K	4,000	4,000	+0	No	+$12	06-10 13:57
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-02-20 15:55 UTC	12	$8.0K	4,000	4,000	+0	Up	+$36	02-20 16:01
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-20 13:45 UTC	38	$7.9K	4,041	4,041	+0	Up	+$33	02-20 13:59
bitcoin up or down february 20 8am et	10	$7.5K	3,605	3,862	-257	Down	+$4	02-20 13:55
BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-03-19 07:30 UTC	29	$7.3K	5,150	2,192	+2,958	Up	+$6	03-19 07:46
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 8?	10	$7.3K	3,652	3,652	+0	Up	+$12	05-08 15:59
ETH Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-09 21:30 UTC	2	$7.3K	3,656	3,656	+0	Down	+$26	02-09 21:45
will the price of ethereum be between 3000 3100 on january 6	2	$7.1K	3,564	3,564	+0	No	+$0	01-06 17:03
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 15?	5	$7.1K	3,035	4,035	-1,000	Yes	+$11	05-15 15:58
elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 280 299	2	$6.8K	3,407	3,406	+0	No	+$3	04-23 23:55
elon musk of tweets april 20 april 22 115 139	2	$6.8K	3,407	3,406	+0	No	+$3	04-22 13:09
bitcoin above 78k on april 17	2	$6.6K	3,333	3,331	+2	No	+$30	04-17 16:00
bitcoin up or down april 17 2026 10am et	34	$6.6K	3,338	3,289	+49	Up	+$3	04-17 14:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-09 08:59:37	Will the highest temperature in London be 13°C on November 9?	No	BUY	192	100¢	$191	0xeab1af…
11-08 11:29:03	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on November 8?	No	BUY	192	100¢	$192	0x9fd1cd…
11-05 07:42:33	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on November 5?	No	BUY	191	100¢	$191	0xf78237…
11-04 07:59:00	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on November 4?	No	BUY	50	99¢	$50	0x670a4d…
11-04 07:58:43	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on November 4?	No	BUY	140	99¢	$139	0x48cc66…
11-03 07:21:30	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on November 3?	No	BUY	50	100¢	$50	0xa9aea8…
11-03 07:21:10	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on November 3?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xe402b4…
11-03 07:20:58	Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on November 3?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x1c6c21…
11-02 14:59:04	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on November 2?	No	BUY	190	100¢	$190	0x26f700…
11-01 11:13:31	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on November 1?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xe8b72d…
11-01 11:12:43	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on November 1?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x6bc906…
11-01 11:12:36	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on November 1?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcc9f4d…
11-01 11:12:24	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on November 1?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x4cb3af…
11-01 11:11:52	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on November 1?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x2163d1…
11-01 11:11:42	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on November 1?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0x1dbf6d…
11-01 11:11:28	Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on November 1?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xcfaa14…
10-31 09:50:22	Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on October 31?	No	BUY	188	100¢	$187	0x011933…
10-30 08:58:42	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on October 30?	No	BUY	188	100¢	$187	0x5f6414…
10-29 10:01:56	Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C or higher on October 29?	No	BUY	188	100¢	$188	0x8b6be9…
10-28 07:32:58	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 28?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x275854…
10-28 07:32:32	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 28?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x500787…
10-28 07:32:17	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 28?	No	BUY	27	100¢	$27	0x64d407…
10-28 07:32:07	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 9°C on October 28?	No	BUY	38	100¢	$38	0x7ffe7e…
10-28 07:31:29	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on October 28?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x9ea158…
10-27 09:00:24	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C or higher on October 27?	No	BUY	177	100¢	$177	0x50b1c3…
10-27 09:00:06	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C or higher on October 27?	No	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xc62b83…
10-26 09:26:48	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on October 26?	No	BUY	165	100¢	$165	0x3415bc…
10-26 09:26:30	Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on October 26?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xf05604…
10-25 08:19:32	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on October 25?	No	BUY	185	100¢	$184	0xaa9b03…
10-24 08:19:03	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 24?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x9ded2b…
10-24 08:18:45	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 24?	No	BUY	92	100¢	$92	0x8280a3…
10-24 08:18:33	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 24?	No	BUY	19	100¢	$19	0x0a0601…
10-24 08:18:24	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on October 24?	No	BUY	29	100¢	$29	0x6df041…
10-23 08:16:57	S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $790 on October 23?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xc0bc3c…
10-23 08:15:45	Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on October 23?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x3bb668…
10-23 08:15:12	Will the highest temperature in London be 11°C on October 23?	No	BUY	143	100¢	$143	0x24f37e…
10-22 07:05:54	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x255fb9…
10-21 10:52:45	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 21?	No	BUY	65	100¢	$65	0x7774d4…
10-21 10:51:33	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 15°C on October 21?	No	BUY	118	99¢	$117	0xfdab7f…
10-20 20:07:08	Will AEK win on 2026-10-20?	No	BUY	183	100¢	$183	0x98ef1d…
10-20 06:23:17	Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	182	99¢	$181	0x790827…
10-20 06:17:37	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on October 19?	No	SELL	181	100¢	$181	0x812aa9…
10-19 06:48:35	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on October 19?	No	BUY	181	100¢	$180	0xe3f118…
10-18 17:18:05	Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-10-18?	No	BUY	180	100¢	$180	0xfe6945…
10-16 09:02:49	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on October 16?	No	BUY	180	100¢	$179	0x7f6f34…
10-15 07:06:41	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on October 15?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xa5e393…
10-15 07:06:19	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 15?	No	BUY	45	100¢	$45	0x80c75c…
10-15 07:06:11	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on October 15?	No	BUY	75	100¢	$75	0xef259b…
10-15 06:58:10	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on October 15?	No	BUY	30	100¢	$30	0xbcf7bb…
10-14 06:17:52	Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on October 14?	No	BUY	180	100¢	$179	0xd3afdd…
10-13 07:09:49	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on October 13?	No	BUY	40	100¢	$40	0x02f37c…
10-13 07:06:59	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on October 13?	No	BUY	138	100¢	$137	0x0a650a…
10-12 08:00:27	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	176	100¢	$175	0x095805…
10-11 08:38:07	Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on October 11?	No	BUY	175	100¢	$174	0x64607e…
10-10 23:11:33	Gemini 4.0 released by October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	6	100¢	$6	0xd06659…
10-10 07:50:00	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	175	100¢	$174	0x25931d…
10-09 06:27:37	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on October 9?	No	BUY	175	100¢	$174	0x104729…
10-08 06:48:10	Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on October 8?	No	BUY	172	100¢	$172	0xafe258…
10-07 06:19:15	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	176	99¢	$175	0xef5669…
10-06 06:24:27	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on October 6?	No	BUY	171	99¢	$170	0x3803af…
10-05 06:58:04	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on October 5?	No	BUY	174	100¢	$174	0x747b3f…
10-04 08:01:34	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 26°C or higher on October 4?	No	BUY	170	100¢	$170	0xa19b10…
10-03 07:40:48	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 1 to October 3, 2026?	No	BUY	170	100¢	$170	0x6007c5…
10-02 08:34:53	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on October 2?	No	BUY	170	100¢	$170	0x54d3c2…
10-01 06:11:53	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on October 1?	No	BUY	170	100¢	$170	0x747d52…
09-30 06:30:39	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 28 to September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	171	100¢	$170	0xb8c60f…
09-29 06:18:44	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	172	99¢	$170	0x1b4da3…
09-28 06:35:45	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on September 28?	No	BUY	170	100¢	$170	0xcf6a20…
09-27 20:37:03	Will Germany win on 2026-09-27?	No	BUY	170	100¢	$170	0x53622b…
09-26 13:23:39	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on September 26?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0x7358fb…
09-26 13:23:17	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 26?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0xed0f11…
09-26 13:22:51	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on September 26?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0xcd63af…
09-25 07:46:11	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	170	100¢	$170	0x844d42…
09-25 07:27:18	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-09-25 07:15 UTC	Up	BUY	170	100¢	$170	0x4a4e33…
09-24 11:49:58	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on September 24?	No	BUY	170	100¢	$170	0x2cda40…
09-22 06:05:07	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	No	BUY	171	100¢	$171	0x2f364b…
09-21 09:21:56	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	170	100¢	$170	0xba0a1b…
09-20 15:51:36	Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-09-20?	No	BUY	171	100¢	$170	0x01db0b…
09-20 11:53:00	Will FC Seoul win on 2026-09-20?	No	BUY	70	100¢	$70	0x3975bb…
09-20 11:52:39	Will FC Seoul win on 2026-09-20?	No	BUY	100	100¢	$100	0xd14b43…
09-20 09:26:30	Will Gwangju FC win on 2026-09-20?	No	BUY	160	99¢	$159	0xc8c560…
09-19 08:59:19	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 17 to September 19, 2026?	No	BUY	160	100¢	$160	0xf8bb44…
09-18 20:38:27	Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-09-18?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xe8d022…
09-18 08:42:46	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on September 18?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xfea900…
09-18 07:57:18	bitcoin up or down september 18 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	55	100¢	$55	0xe003f6…
09-18 07:57:18	bitcoin up or down september 18 2026 3am et	Up	BUY	25	100¢	$25	0x0ce03c…
09-18 07:54:42	Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on September 18?	No	BUY	80	100¢	$80	0xf4b9ad…
09-17 06:31:30	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on September 17?	No	BUY	150	100¢	$150	0x9aa032…
09-16 20:15:19	Will Real Racing Club win on 2026-09-16?	No	BUY	160	100¢	$160	0xab0bb5…
09-16 06:00:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	155	99¢	$154	0x6fba9c…
09-15 20:11:09	Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-09-15?	No	BUY	160	100¢	$160	0xf51543…
09-15 06:21:07	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	No	BUY	162	99¢	$161	0xc0a25a…
09-14 07:10:22	Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from September 12 to September 14, 2026?	No	BUY	155	100¢	$155	0xe37a6a…
09-13 19:54:37	Will Al Riyadh Saudi Club win on 2026-09-13?	Yes	BUY	153	100¢	$153	0xc4a147…
09-13 09:20:22	Will Gangwon FC win on 2026-09-13?	No	BUY	161	100¢	$160	0xef6442…
09-12 11:46:54	Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2026-09-12?	No	SELL	309	52¢	$160	0x457193…
09-12 11:35:57	Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2026-09-12?	No	BUY	309	100¢	$308	0x855162…
09-11 06:28:13	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 4 to September 11, 2026?	No	BUY	311	100¢	$311	0xd151d5…
09-10 19:57:31	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-09-10?	Yes	BUY	314	100¢	$313	0xae277d…
09-10 07:02:07	Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C on September 10?	No	BUY	309	100¢	$308	0x0cb0e2…