Ignorant-Corporation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$28

Unrealized P&L

-$4

Hit rate

63.5%

Resolved

Trades

199

lifetime

Volume

$717

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$32

1 position

First seen

2026-02-09

last 10-28 13:35

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 25 days

Categories

Politics

64% 49% -$9

Other

29% 54% -$8

Sports

7% 60% -$12

Pop-Culture

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

19 active days in 12wk • peak 35 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (27) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?	No		-33	-$28	96¢	$-32	-$4	05-29 20:10

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	9	$164	92	92	+0	No	+$8	08-11 20:26
Will Flamengo win the 2027 Copa Libertadores?	2	$95	60	60	+0	open	—	10-23 10:09
Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?	3	$31	10	44	-33	open	—	09-16 07:49
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	8	$29	33	33	-0	No	-$1	10-25 20:59
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	12	$29	43	24	+18	Yes	-$7	10-25 22:54
Will Donald Trump publicly praise Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31, 2026?	4	$23	14	14	+0	Yes	+$0	10-25 22:07
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026?	2	$22	22	0	+22	Yes	+$0	05-14 15:40
Will Trump say "Bolsonaro" during events with Brazilian president?	1	$20	20	0	+20	No	+$0	05-07 19:18
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	2	$18	10	10	+0	Yes	$0	05-14 20:16
Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	8	$17	16	15	+1	Yes	-$2	08-25 21:21
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in May?	2	$15	16	0	+16	Yes	+$1	05-06 21:40
Will Danilo Luiz da Silva be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	3	$12	16	0	+16	Yes	-$12	05-18 21:40
Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?	7	$11	22	22	+0	No	-$1	10-25 22:14
Will João Pedro be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	05-19 12:51
Will Gabriel Sara be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	+$0	05-19 12:51
Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?	4	$10	25	0	+25	open	—	10-28 13:35
Will Richarlison be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	2	$10	5	5	+0	No	$0	05-19 12:51
Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by May 31?	2	$10	6	6	+0	No	$0	05-14 20:16
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	3	$8	10	10	+0	No	+$0	05-04 19:47
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31?	4	$8	5	5	+0	No	+$0	05-07 17:01
Will Vicentinho Júnior win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election?	2	$8	5	5	+0	Yes	+$1	10-25 21:09
Will Ciro Gomes win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	3	$7	7	5	+2	No	-$1	08-25 21:18
Will Partido Liberal (PL) hold the most seats as a result of the next Brazilian Senate election?	2	$6	1	6	-5	Yes	-$1	05-18 21:31
Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	2	$6	5	5	+0	No	-$1	10-25 20:59
Starmer out by February 28, 2026?	4	$5	7	7	+0	No	+$0	02-19 12:31
Will Endrick be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squad list?	1	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	05-18 21:03
Will Ana Paula Renault win Big Brother Brasil 26?	2	$5	3	3	+0	Yes	+$1	04-20 17:40
peter mandelson charged by march 31	2	$5	4	4	+0	No	+$1	02-28 15:33
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	2	$5	3	3	+0	No	+$1	05-29 20:13
Will Professora Dorinha win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election?	3	$4	6	6	+0	No	-$2	10-19 15:57

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-28 13:35:29	Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?	No	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xd227f2…
10-28 13:35:14	Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?	No	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0xb4585c…
10-28 13:34:58	Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?	No	BUY	6	35¢	$2	0x5b4319…
10-28 11:27:31	Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?	Yes	SELL	2	20¢	$0	0x374884…
10-28 11:26:40	Will the US grant Flávio Bolsonaro political asylum in 2026?	No	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0xbcd514…
10-25 23:27:23	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x2aeff8…
10-25 23:16:30	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x611685…
10-25 22:55:33	Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	1	77¢	$1	0x5c57c6…
10-25 22:54:06	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xf75e27…
10-25 22:49:44	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	No	SELL	13	15¢	$2	0x2f0fd8…
10-25 22:48:41	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	No	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0xfeb1b6…
10-25 22:47:45	Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	48¢	$1	0x479ba4…
10-25 22:47:30	Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	2	52¢	$1	0x2dc938…
10-25 22:46:44	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xf8d74f…
10-25 22:37:08	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 4%?	Yes	BUY	8	26¢	$2	0xb535b0…
10-25 22:35:38	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso do Sul?	No	SELL	23	1¢	$0	0xaf325c…
10-25 22:34:27	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x47697f…
10-25 22:33:03	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x73e6c4…
10-25 22:29:00	Jair Bolsonaro released from custody by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0xa288d1…
10-25 22:22:06	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x082566…
10-25 22:15:14	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	No	SELL	2	25¢	$1	0x0525b1…
10-25 22:14:59	Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?	Yes	SELL	5	8¢	$0	0x2ea1e7…
10-25 22:11:42	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso do Sul?	No	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0xed1e72…
10-25 22:09:20	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	3	45¢	$1	0x74a052…
10-25 22:07:02	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	14	82¢	$11	0xfff6ae…
10-25 21:20:15	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?	No	BUY	13	7¢	$1	0x327c30…
10-25 21:18:14	Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0x5966c0…
10-25 21:17:29	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0x6f6837…
10-25 21:09:59	Will Vicentinho Júnior win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	5	92¢	$4	0xb6030b…
10-25 21:05:50	Will voter turnout in the second round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election be less than 76%?	Yes	BUY	36	3¢	$1	0x224de9…
10-25 21:01:05	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	SELL	12	66¢	$8	0x00b4d4…
10-25 21:00:14	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?	Yes	SELL	4	20¢	$1	0xfe5c3f…
10-25 20:59:54	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0x40f797…
10-25 20:59:20	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	12	66¢	$8	0xcd840e…
10-25 20:59:03	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	12	66¢	$8	0x05d6d1…
10-25 20:50:32	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 2%?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xbc8405…
10-25 20:45:39	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xafc903…
10-25 00:07:59	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amazonas?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0xb8bf7c…
10-25 00:06:51	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Amapá?	Yes	BUY	5	74¢	$3	0xfb395f…
10-25 00:00:17	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8	88¢	$7	0xfa541c…
10-24 23:59:00	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0xc3f1bd…
10-23 16:00:26	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	68¢	$1	0x7a76d1…
10-23 10:09:44	Will Flamengo win the 2027 Copa Libertadores?	No	SELL	60	79¢	$47	0x6817e7…
10-23 10:09:17	Will Flamengo win the 2027 Copa Libertadores?	No	BUY	60	80¢	$48	0x15e9e2…
10-21 09:18:54	Will Celina Leão win the 2026 Federal District gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x509a1b…
10-21 09:18:21	Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x1de45b…
10-21 09:16:14	Will Donald Trump publicly praise Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	73¢	$3	0xe80863…
10-19 15:59:54	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	4	76¢	$3	0x7fc52b…
10-19 15:58:39	Will Vicentinho Júnior win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	5	77¢	$4	0xd5d44c…
10-19 15:57:56	Will Professora Dorinha win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election?	Yes	SELL	6	21¢	$1	0x1883e8…
10-19 15:57:20	Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?	Yes	SELL	12	23¢	$3	0xc0652f…
10-19 15:55:54	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	9	23¢	$2	0x97572a…
10-14 13:36:12	lula x flavio bolsonaro debate before second round	Yes	BUY	2	91¢	$2	0xeb42e3…
10-13 14:46:13	Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x06ff90…
10-13 14:45:35	Will Professora Dorinha win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xe1cbd4…
10-13 14:43:31	Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x735230…
10-10 18:15:27	Will Professora Dorinha win the 2026 Tocantins gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0xdc673b…
10-04 23:20:41	Will Marina JHC win the second-most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election?	Yes	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x980430…
10-04 23:20:34	Will Renan win the second-most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election?	Yes	SELL	4	23¢	$1	0xd6f883…
10-04 10:56:28	Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xf547e1…
10-04 10:53:31	Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xe65f27…
10-04 10:52:04	Will Renan Santos win between 2% and 4% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xdc894f…
10-04 10:47:49	Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x1e05b1…
10-04 10:47:35	Will Lula win the most votes in the first round of the 2026 Brazil presidential election?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0xfa4e7b…
10-04 10:47:22	Will Alexandre Curi win the second-most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?	Yes	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x8400c1…
10-04 10:47:10	Will Deltan Dallagnol win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election?	No	BUY	1	82¢	$1	0x162ba4…
09-27 19:31:32	Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?	Yes	SELL	5	27¢	$1	0x236a98…
09-27 19:25:02	Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0xf466eb…
09-22 13:36:00	Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September?	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x15a0a7…
09-22 13:35:36	Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xbec110…
09-16 07:49:58	Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?	Yes	SELL	10	17¢	$2	0xdcf763…
09-02 19:42:25	Will Marília Campos win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?	Yes	SELL	4	16¢	$1	0x4f69b1…
09-02 19:41:06	Will Carlos Viana win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?	Yes	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0x0d72b6…
09-02 19:40:57	Will Marília Campos win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?	Yes	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0xf0fb69…
09-01 14:34:55	Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0xa4ad1d…
09-01 14:33:13	Will Pablo Marçal finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	500	0¢	$2	0x017325…
08-30 16:23:45	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	SELL	8	24¢	$2	0xed09c5…
08-26 21:00:16	Will Augusto Cury finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x14e1fe…
08-26 20:37:25	Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?	Yes	BUY	2	57¢	$1	0x697315…
08-26 20:33:48	Will Pablo Marçal finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	500	0¢	$1	0xfe2b02…
08-25 21:59:52	Will Trump endorse Flávio Bolsonaro for President of Brazil?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x043d4b…
08-25 21:59:31	Flávio Bolsonaro participates in debate before first round?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x0b98b6…
08-25 21:59:13	Lula participates in debate before first round?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x6a1a4b…
08-25 21:58:51	Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Tocantins?	Yes	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xdb1ea7…
08-25 21:53:18	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Goiás?	Yes	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xdbc777…
08-25 21:52:58	Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Federal District?	Yes	BUY	1	85¢	$1	0x1a9af6…
08-25 21:51:04	Will Carol de Toni win the second-most votes in the 2026 Santa Catarina Senate election?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x26a217…
08-25 21:50:27	Will Manuela D'Ávila win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0xfeb008…
08-25 21:50:09	Will Marcel Van Hattem win the most votes in the 2026 Rio Grande do Sul Senate election?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x1b04ef…
08-25 21:49:25	Will Carlos Jordy win the second-most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x791297…
08-25 21:49:10	Will Benedita da Silva win the most votes in the 2026 Rio de Janeiro Senate election?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xa5a4af…
08-25 21:48:45	Will Marília Campos win the second-most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xb8b784…
08-25 21:48:31	Will Carlos Viana win the most votes in the 2026 Minas Gerais Senate election?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x46ae8f…
08-25 21:46:15	Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the most votes in the 2026 Federal District Senate election?	Yes	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x775b65…
08-25 21:45:55	Will Cid Gomes win the most votes in the 2026 Ceará Senate election?	Yes	BUY	2	61¢	$1	0x75b57c…
08-25 21:45:36	Will Renan win the second-most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election?	Yes	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x969143…
08-25 21:45:27	Will Arthur Lira win the most votes in the 2026 Alagoas Senate election?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x4dc44f…
08-25 21:22:00	Will Raquel Lyra win the Pernambuco Governor election?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0xaf15bf…
08-25 21:21:28	Will Sergio Moro win the Governor of Paraná election?	Yes	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x1df94b…
08-25 21:21:03	Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0xfdae86…