Terrible-Chance — Polymarket

Realized P&L (90d)

-$20

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

67.0%

Resolved (90d)

Trades (90d)

719 lifetime

Volume (90d)

$182

$10.7K lifetime

Avg / trade

$15

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-05-07

last 08-20 05:21

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Crypto

78% 52% -$132

Sports

20% 0% -$2,098

Other

2% 33% +$11

Politics

0% 100% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 21 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$2.1K	5,124	0	+5,124	No	-$2,098	07-19 16:20
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?	2	$155	95	95	+0	Yes	+$34	06-17 03:10
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET	5	$152	202	127	+75	Down	+$26	05-22 04:19
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:30 UTC	7	$121	217	117	+100	Up	+$17	06-17 06:34
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	7	$117	109	84	+25	Up	+$13	05-21 10:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET	5	$114	196	79	+117	Down	-$5	05-22 05:14
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:05 UTC	2	$93	76	76	+0	Up	+$13	06-17 06:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET	3	$91	88	33	+55	Up	+$20	05-21 11:16
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET	3	$88	79	61	+18	Down	+$18	05-20 08:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	3	$85	90	72	+19	Up	+$3	05-22 09:37
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET	3	$84	65	65	+0	Down	+$34	05-18 16:22
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET	8	$83	115	115	+0	Down	+$21	05-21 08:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	2	$80	116	0	+116	Down	-$80	05-22 04:50
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET	2	$80	98	0	+98	Up	+$18	05-21 11:11
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	2	$79	70	70	+0	Up	+$15	05-20 09:19
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	2	$75	54	54	+0	Down	+$25	05-20 09:44
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET	3	$74	122	47	+75	Up	+$12	05-21 08:58
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	6	$73	69	51	+17	Down	+$14	05-21 10:24
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET	2	$72	62	62	+0	Up	+$32	05-21 09:06
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET	4	$72	49	49	+0	Down	+$12	05-22 03:09
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	2	$71	52	52	+0	Up	+$31	05-22 09:04
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	2	$66	43	43	+0	Up	+$14	05-21 09:49
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET	5	$64	203	36	+167	Down	-$1	05-21 08:33
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET	4	$64	56	56	+0	Down	+$20	05-21 09:59
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	2	$64	40	40	+0	Up	+$14	05-19 10:48
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET	3	$64	161	13	+148	Down	-$56	05-21 10:56
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET	2	$62	34	34	+0	Up	+$2	05-26 15:57
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET	4	$60	48	48	+0	Up	+$10	05-20 01:49
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 05:35 UTC	4	$60	53	53	+0	Up	+$10	06-17 05:38
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	4	$60	44	44	+0	Down	+$6	05-21 10:38

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-20 05:21:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 05:20 UTC	Down	BUY	21	73¢	$15	0xe18a83…
08-20 05:15:21	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	16	53¢	$9	0x947e7d…
08-20 05:10:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 05:10 UTC	Up	BUY	21	48¢	$10	0xa3b21b…
08-20 05:05:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 05:05 UTC	Down	BUY	10	48¢	$5	0x043ab5…
08-20 05:03:46	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 05:00 UTC	Down	SELL	20	84¢	$17	0x659d84…
08-20 05:02:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 05:00 UTC	Down	BUY	20	49¢	$10	0xc5fb4d…
08-20 04:56:06	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 04:55 UTC	Down	BUY	17	70¢	$12	0xf54b9a…
08-20 04:50:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 04:50 UTC	Down	BUY	42	12¢	$5	0x9a539c…
08-20 04:46:30	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 04:45 UTC	Down	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xef4287…
08-20 04:41:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 04:40 UTC	Down	BUY	30	20¢	$6	0x8288ac…
08-20 01:16:12	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 01:15 UTC	Down	SELL	9	77¢	$7	0x7a182a…
08-20 01:15:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 01:15 UTC	Down	BUY	9	33¢	$3	0x2a9db1…
08-20 01:12:00	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 01:10 UTC	Up	SELL	20	74¢	$15	0xef36a3…
08-20 01:10:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 01:10 UTC	Up	BUY	20	35¢	$7	0xfbf7ec…
08-20 01:06:09	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 01:05 UTC	Down	SELL	16	76¢	$12	0x817a69…
08-20 01:05:18	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 01:05 UTC	Down	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x9f1b6d…
08-20 01:01:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 01:00 UTC	Down	BUY	32	22¢	$7	0x23c4e2…
08-20 00:57:52	Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET	Up	BUY	17	29¢	$5	0x4e4076…
08-20 00:51:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 00:50 UTC	Down	SELL	16	77¢	$13	0xf4e986…
08-20 00:50:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 00:50 UTC	Down	BUY	16	43¢	$7	0xa77d1e…
08-20 00:46:45	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 00:45 UTC	Down	BUY	13	15¢	$2	0x5d4482…
07-21 01:29:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-21 01:25 UTC	Up	BUY	23	26¢	$6	0xb94308…
07-20 14:11:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 14:10 UTC	Up	BUY	12	26¢	$3	0x8a43ca…
07-20 14:07:03	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 14:05 UTC	Up	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0xd1673a…
07-20 14:00:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 14:00 UTC	Up	BUY	5	60¢	$3	0xb02fb1…
07-19 16:20:40	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,320	41¢	$543	0x61bb84…
07-19 14:48:39	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	2,558	41¢	$1,046	0xcd2c1c…
07-19 14:15:45	Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	1,246	41¢	$510	0x651706…
06-23 09:44:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 09:40 UTC	Up	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x67d5f8…
06-23 09:35:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 09:35 UTC	Up	BUY	19	57¢	$11	0x407bb8…
06-23 09:31:59	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 09:30 UTC	Up	BUY	18	28¢	$5	0x90b7a5…
06-23 09:26:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 09:25 UTC	Down	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x5239ca…
06-23 09:25:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-23 09:25 UTC	Down	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x2fa4d5…
06-17 07:11:47	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 07:10 UTC	Down	BUY	20	24¢	$5	0x9af088…
06-17 07:05:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 07:05 UTC	Up	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xb993e8…
06-17 07:00:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 07:00 UTC	Up	BUY	53	47¢	$25	0x42d775…
06-17 06:55:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:55 UTC	Up	BUY	41	49¢	$20	0x9843ff…
06-17 06:51:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:50 UTC	Up	BUY	30	33¢	$10	0xdfb532…
06-17 06:45:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:45 UTC	Up	BUY	14	62¢	$9	0xc71db3…
06-17 06:40:35	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:40 UTC	Up	BUY	42	24¢	$10	0x340bc0…
06-17 06:36:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:35 UTC	Up	BUY	14	35¢	$5	0x7037be…
06-17 06:35:58	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:35 UTC	Down	SELL	13	56¢	$7	0x9f9edb…
06-17 06:35:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:35 UTC	Down	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x7fdbee…
06-17 06:34:13	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET	Down	BUY	100	2¢	$2	0x4d8ea8…
06-17 06:33:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:30 UTC	Up	SELL	24	71¢	$17	0xba4d3f…
06-17 06:33:10	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:30 UTC	Up	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x85a223…
06-17 06:32:19	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:30 UTC	Up	SELL	51	48¢	$25	0x0f43b8…
06-17 06:32:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:30 UTC	Up	BUY	51	39¢	$20	0xda4d6b…
06-17 06:30:56	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:30 UTC	Up	SELL	42	65¢	$27	0x7affd9…
06-17 06:30:16	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:30 UTC	Up	BUY	42	48¢	$20	0xe5655f…
06-17 06:26:04	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:25 UTC	Up	BUY	16	19¢	$3	0xed4278…
06-17 06:25:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:25 UTC	Up	BUY	9	35¢	$3	0x9a3f6d…
06-17 06:21:17	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:20 UTC	Down	BUY	58	60¢	$35	0x97f766…
06-17 06:15:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:15 UTC	Down	BUY	38	66¢	$25	0xeaca41…
06-17 06:10:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:10 UTC	Down	BUY	22	58¢	$13	0x61ddca…
06-17 06:09:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:05 UTC	Down	SELL	76	69¢	$53	0x1e2aa8…
06-17 06:05:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:05 UTC	Down	BUY	76	52¢	$40	0x35e87d…
06-17 06:04:58	Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET	Down	BUY	303	8¢	$23	0xd94035…
06-17 06:01:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 06:00 UTC	Down	BUY	11	70¢	$8	0xec9e71…
06-17 05:57:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 05:55 UTC	Up	SELL	28	91¢	$25	0x78b971…
06-17 05:56:23	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 05:55 UTC	Up	BUY	28	43¢	$12	0x94c702…
06-17 05:52:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 05:50 UTC	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x6dfc67…
06-17 05:51:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 05:50 UTC	Down	SELL	17	89¢	$15	0xeac72f…
06-17 05:50:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 05:50 UTC	Down	BUY	17	47¢	$8	0x73a519…
06-17 05:49:01	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 05:45 UTC	Up	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x5c7aac…
06-17 05:48:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 05:45 UTC	Down	SELL	18	89¢	$16	0x4ad65f…
06-17 05:45:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 05:45 UTC	Down	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x058103…
06-17 05:40:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 05:40 UTC	Down	BUY	14	51¢	$7	0x8d9b5f…
06-17 05:38:49	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 05:35 UTC	Up	SELL	23	48¢	$11	0x0f47d5…
06-17 05:37:05	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 05:35 UTC	Up	BUY	23	22¢	$5	0xc8b0da…
06-17 05:36:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 05:35 UTC	Down	SELL	31	78¢	$24	0x037499…
06-17 05:35:25	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 05:35 UTC	Down	BUY	31	65¢	$20	0x434746…
06-17 05:30:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 05:30 UTC	Down	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0xfb3920…
06-17 05:25:32	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 05:25 UTC	Down	BUY	12	52¢	$6	0x0ff0b5…
06-17 05:23:01	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	BUY	35	14¢	$5	0xc52b09…
06-17 05:20:22	fifwc aut jor 2026 06 17 spread home 1pt5	Austria	SELL	33	15¢	$5	0xc86e41…
06-17 05:17:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 05:15 UTC	Up	SELL	38	14¢	$5	0x0016f6…
06-17 05:16:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 05:15 UTC	Up	BUY	38	8¢	$3	0xa8f2ef…
06-17 05:14:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 05:10 UTC	Up	SELL	12	17¢	$2	0xd7e1dc…
06-17 05:12:13	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 05:10 UTC	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0x8c9b40…
06-17 04:33:11	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 04:30 UTC	Up	SELL	12	64¢	$7	0x83fa53…
06-17 04:32:43	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 04:30 UTC	Up	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xb887f6…
06-17 04:29:41	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 04:25 UTC	Down	SELL	20	95¢	$19	0xfc2b7b…
06-17 04:28:53	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 04:25 UTC	Down	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x616e8c…
06-17 04:25:26	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 04:25 UTC	Down	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xb603fa…
06-17 04:23:02	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 04:20 UTC	Down	BUY	26	19¢	$5	0x66534b…
06-17 04:15:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 04:15 UTC	Down	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x9242c8…
06-17 04:14:52	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 04:10 UTC	Up	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0x6c5c5d…
06-17 04:13:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 04:10 UTC	Down	SELL	28	74¢	$21	0x333f4d…
06-17 04:11:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 04:10 UTC	Down	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x4a4aee…
06-17 04:01:44	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 04:00 UTC	Down	SELL	35	67¢	$23	0x817b6f…
06-17 04:00:20	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 04:00 UTC	Down	BUY	35	43¢	$15	0x603b99…
06-17 03:57:55	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 03:55 UTC	Up	SELL	18	18¢	$3	0x0138b8…
06-17 03:55:28	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 03:55 UTC	Up	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x3ac1f5…
06-17 03:50:29	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 03:50 UTC	Up	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0xe80cf3…
06-17 03:44:46	fifwc prt cdr 2026 06 17 spread home 1pt5	Portugal	BUY	29	52¢	$15	0xb2adf2…
06-17 03:43:34	fifwc aut jor 2026 06 17 spread home 1pt5	Austria	BUY	33	46¢	$15	0x6999e7…
06-17 03:26:39	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 03:25 UTC	Up	SELL	27	82¢	$22	0x0565e3…
06-17 03:25:31	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 03:25 UTC	Up	BUY	14	42¢	$6	0xf8ca33…
06-17 03:25:22	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-06-17 03:25 UTC	Up	BUY	12	56¢	$7	0x3aacae…