Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$692

Unrealized P&L

+$85

Hit rate

88.5%

Resolved

303

Trades

1,446

lifetime

Volume

$80.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$55

Open exposure

$1.30K

2 positions

First seen

2026-06-23

last 10-29 04:06

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 68 days

Categories

Other

88% 80% +$308

Tech

10% 90% +$289

Politics

1% 67% +$201

Crypto

0% 33% -$105

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

66 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	No		+1,287	$1,177	99¢	$1.3K	+$91	10-22 19:42
Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes		+166	$33	16¢	$27	-$6	10-24 23:44

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	45	$4.2K	2,383	2,383	+0	Yes	+$36	09-30 04:04
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	2	$2.4K	1,360	1,360	+0	Yes	+$14	10-22 07:42
Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	9	$2.2K	1,150	1,150	+0	Yes	+$84	10-19 15:31
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	8	$2.0K	1,615	724	+891	No	+$228	09-28 02:11
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on August 21?	9	$1.9K	937	937	+0	No	+$3	08-21 04:16
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	3	$1.4K	880	780	+100	No	+$36	10-13 10:03
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 18?	27	$1.4K	2,613	742	+1,872	No	-$831	07-18 02:45
will russia capture kostyantynivka by august 31 1 893	14	$1.3K	1,139	1,139	+0	Yes	+$38	08-12 01:00
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 16?	3	$1.3K	641	641	+0	No	+$15	07-16 10:34
will anthropics valuation hit high 1pt35 by july 31 20260629184429515	7	$1.2K	679	679	+0	No	+$64	07-10 13:13
Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	3	$1.2K	1,287	0	+1,287	open	—	10-22 19:42
Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?	1	$1.1K	1,133	0	+1,133	No	+$34	10-15 15:02
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	2	$1.1K	693	693	+0	open	—	10-11 03:06
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 14?	9	$1.1K	546	546	+0	No	+$11	08-14 03:49
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on July 28?	4	$1.0K	533	533	+0	No	+$2	07-28 13:01
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 18?	12	$1.0K	649	649	+0	Yes	+$35	07-19 06:05
google maps renames lake ontario to lake america by september 30 2026	9	$1.0K	650	650	+0	Yes	+$85	08-28 12:22
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on August 1?	29	$982	498	623	-125	No	+$17	08-01 07:34
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 15?	5	$973	491	491	+0	No	+$8	08-16 06:36
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 2?	14	$964	539	539	+0	No	-$67	09-02 07:01
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 38°C or higher on July 12?	8	$927	859	99	+760	No	+$24	07-12 04:34
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on July 27?	28	$922	467	467	+0	No	+$10	07-27 09:39
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 28?	14	$900	466	466	-0	No	+$23	07-28 07:00
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on August 1?	7	$813	360	485	-125	Yes	-$9	08-01 15:39
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on August 31?	7	$779	453	453	+0	Yes	+$6	08-31 06:13
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on July 26?	9	$763	431	431	+0	No	+$99	07-26 03:28
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on July 20?	23	$748	385	385	+0	No	+$22	07-20 09:48
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 31?	13	$721	367	482	-115	No	+$23	07-31 08:35
will openais astra model be released by august 15 2026 20260801214557730	3	$699	508	508	+0	No	+$39	08-07 01:13
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 28?	4	$696	351	351	+0	No	+$5	07-27 23:46

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 04:06:46	US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	No	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x505292…
10-24 23:44:48	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	20¢	$1	0x0ba653…
10-24 23:44:17	Will T1 win Worlds 2026?	Yes	BUY	160	20¢	$32	0xca7c5c…
10-23 10:12:44	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	15¢	$15	0x425614…
10-22 19:42:36	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	19	91¢	$17	0xfdb3a9…
10-22 14:47:14	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	647	91¢	$589	0xe61d66…
10-22 11:01:26	Israeli airspace closed by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	621	92¢	$571	0xe20415…
10-22 07:42:59	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	1,360	88¢	$1,197	0x729708…
10-21 03:41:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	1,360	87¢	$1,183	0xbdae4c…
10-20 17:12:02	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	211	8¢	$17	0x9e50bb…
10-20 15:31:38	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	37	6¢	$2	0x51b941…
10-20 15:29:32	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	6¢	$1	0x8073f6…
10-20 10:28:14	US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Yes	SELL	144	38¢	$55	0x2ae1ee…
10-20 10:27:53	US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Yes	SELL	2	39¢	$1	0x217d8a…
10-20 10:27:50	US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Yes	SELL	155	39¢	$60	0x921107…
10-20 02:53:39	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	108	0¢	$0	0x861a0e…
10-20 02:12:24	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	Yes	SELL	240	5¢	$12	0x761102…
10-20 01:21:08	US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	6	46¢	$3	0xa1ca93…
10-20 01:20:21	US imports Russian diesel by December 31?	Yes	BUY	294	45¢	$132	0x541036…
10-19 15:31:09	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1,088	100¢	$1,086	0x9d4c02…
10-19 15:18:09	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x6ea3e0…
10-19 13:07:59	Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.5 and 2.9% in 2026?	Yes	SELL	86	0¢	$0	0x699c0b…
10-19 12:57:59	Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.5 and 2.9% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	0¢	$0	0xedf0b0…
10-19 12:57:59	Will Japan's core CPI increase by between 2.5 and 2.9% in 2026?	Yes	BUY	65	0¢	$0	0x2b53f1…
10-19 11:26:53	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xa5aec9…
10-19 04:05:06	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xf1b4c4…
10-19 03:12:15	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	235	5¢	$11	0x907d4c…
10-19 02:57:08	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	26	100¢	$26	0x76005b…
10-19 02:29:06	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	SELL	29	100¢	$29	0x45bef7…
10-18 23:25:39	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	647	0¢	$1	0xd1759d…
10-18 22:10:54	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0x8a20b9…
10-18 21:47:33	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	0¢	$0	0x57b973…
10-18 21:13:02	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	0¢	$0	0xdd9310…
10-18 21:06:42	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	0¢	$0	0x231465…
10-18 20:28:38	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	0¢	$0	0x25b0e8…
10-18 19:53:42	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	27	0¢	$0	0xe28383…
10-18 19:52:26	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	0¢	$0	0xb8f447…
10-18 07:40:35	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	0¢	$0	0xeb2566…
10-18 07:40:33	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 29, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	0¢	$0	0x84ee71…
10-18 00:55:59	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	230	0¢	$0	0x4558f8…
10-17 10:34:17	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x71bdea…
10-17 10:32:33	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x49de72…
10-17 10:31:09	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	10	11¢	$1	0x905d6e…
10-17 10:31:09	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0x4ed14b…
10-17 10:31:06	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	11¢	$2	0xab5892…
10-17 10:31:06	Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?	Yes	BUY	11	11¢	$1	0x1fb82e…
10-17 01:26:53	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	652	93¢	$606	0xe50d79…
10-17 01:08:38	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	438	92¢	$403	0x67b31b…
10-17 01:00:44	Will gemini-4-argon-high be the best AI model on October 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	90¢	$54	0xa6cca1…
10-16 12:22:48	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	SELL	500	5¢	$26	0x1239a3…
10-16 11:27:01	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	150	2¢	$4	0x431b4a…
10-16 11:02:22	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0xc84751…
10-16 09:21:31	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-10-16 09:15 UTC	Up	BUY	1,103	9¢	$100	0x2fd076…
10-16 05:30:46	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	50	3¢	$2	0xf17c0f…
10-16 05:04:06	Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?	No	BUY	200	6¢	$12	0xa5c8f3…
10-16 00:36:13	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	SELL	136	30¢	$40	0xede51a…
10-15 15:02:07	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by October 15?	No	BUY	1,133	97¢	$1,099	0x5b0a80…
10-15 03:18:34	perim island no longer under houthi control by december 31 20260916	Yes	SELL	415	33¢	$137	0x4f632e…
10-15 01:32:32	perim island no longer under houthi control by december 31 20260916	Yes	BUY	18	33¢	$6	0xa9e091…
10-14 14:53:24	perim island no longer under houthi control by december 31 20260916	Yes	BUY	1	33¢	$0	0x6314f8…
10-13 23:53:49	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	20	36¢	$7	0x96056f…
10-13 10:04:28	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	5	46¢	$2	0x0d23ce…
10-13 10:03:17	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	100	3¢	$3	0x49818f…
10-13 00:39:45	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	7	48¢	$3	0x8ff592…
10-13 00:38:53	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	48¢	$48	0x2c0f4b…
10-11 23:47:32	Perim Island no longer under Houthi control by December 31?	Yes	BUY	399	57¢	$227	0xe1cc7f…
10-11 13:21:42	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes	SELL	392	46¢	$182	0x32c91f…
10-11 07:48:19	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	SELL	393	48¢	$189	0xe5c6dd…
10-11 07:36:18	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?	Yes	BUY	392	45¢	$175	0xd1912d…
10-11 07:36:06	Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by November 30?	No	BUY	393	45¢	$176	0x2c85b9…
10-11 04:05:51	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	SELL	780	95¢	$741	0x33ef74…
10-11 03:40:00	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	SELL	75	70¢	$52	0xcc2ffd…
10-11 03:06:38	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	693	74¢	$513	0x280033…
10-11 00:16:37	Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	75	69¢	$52	0x7999d8…
10-10 09:43:27	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?	Yes	SELL	100	41¢	$41	0x362663…
10-08 00:55:22	US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?	No	BUY	780	90¢	$702	0x37d4fd…
10-08 00:48:11	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by December 31?	Yes	BUY	100	35¢	$35	0xc7a29b…
10-02 08:58:29	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	Yes	SELL	517	18¢	$93	0x1f3774…
10-02 06:19:56	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	693	83¢	$575	0xc70b39…
10-02 03:55:36	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	313	30¢	$94	0x608163…
10-02 02:57:44	US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by October 31?	Yes	BUY	517	16¢	$83	0x7c7244…
09-30 05:02:12	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	370	90¢	$333	0x7c8859…
09-30 04:04:03	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	100¢	$0	0x387aba…
09-30 03:23:30	Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	370	86¢	$318	0x68151b…
09-30 01:28:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	313	22¢	$69	0xfe5d51…
09-29 00:41:51	trump renames ai by december 31	Yes	SELL	162	74¢	$120	0x5a95f7…
09-29 00:37:50	trump renames ai by december 31	Yes	SELL	108	74¢	$80	0xa3db1d…
09-28 23:40:08	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0xf7e16b…
09-28 23:39:42	trump renames ai by december 31	Yes	BUY	270	51¢	$138	0x351c22…
09-28 02:11:45	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	SELL	320	98¢	$312	0xfc9e9d…
09-25 04:10:24	Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	16	100¢	$16	0x64abb6…
09-24 10:23:23	Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	SELL	111	73¢	$81	0x962b23…
09-24 10:22:47	Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	SELL	40	73¢	$29	0x264c01…
09-24 10:20:44	Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	SELL	5	73¢	$4	0xe579be…
09-24 10:17:03	Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	SELL	14	73¢	$10	0xcff45b…
09-23 00:31:02	Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	BUY	170	69¢	$117	0xe5d916…
09-20 23:01:49	Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,035	85¢	$880	0xa0ae50…
09-20 14:34:45	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	449	98¢	$442	0x618bf5…
09-20 10:29:21	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0xc45352…
09-20 10:16:25	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	SELL	12	98¢	$12	0x032f8e…