Third-Fund — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$9

Unrealized P&L

-$1

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

199

lifetime

Volume

$13.7K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$69

Open exposure

$30

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-18

last 06-12 01:46

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

74% — —

Sports

11% 100% +$9

Crypto

8% — —

Politics

6% 100% +$0

Tech

1% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

26 active days in 12wk • peak 14 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (1) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	No	-15	$-14	99¢	$-15	$-1	06-01 02:28
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	+8	$7	94¢	$7	$-0	06-12 01:46
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?	No	-7	$-7	100¢	$-7	$-0	06-01 02:28

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	74	$9.4K	4,868	4,868	-0	open	—	01-23 12:23
will the seattle seahawks win super bowl 2026	10	$1.1K	1,462	1,462	+0	open	—	01-23 10:22
will antnio jos seguro win the 2026 portugal presidential election	8	$612	324	324	+0	open	—	01-19 02:44
btc updown 15m 1769169600	2	$295	354	349	+5	open	—	01-23 12:02
will the los angeles rams win super bowl 2026	2	$281	512	512	+0	open	—	01-23 10:22
btc updown 15m 1769166900	3	$265	292	288	+4	open	—	01-23 11:23
btc updown 15m 1769171400	1	$151	239	0	+239	open	—	01-23 12:38
fed increases interest rates by 25 bps after january 2026 meeting	2	$150	50,000	50,000	+0	open	—	01-19 03:12
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	4	$90	46	46	+0	open	—	04-18 10:05
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	2	$83	42	42	+0	open	—	04-28 03:10
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	2	$83	43	43	+0	open	—	04-28 10:14
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?	2	$71	36	36	+0	open	—	04-05 01:36
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	2	$70	35	35	+0	open	—	05-12 05:45
will bitcoin reach 100k in march 2026	2	$64	32	32	+0	open	—	03-30 09:01
GTA VI released before June 2026?	2	$63	32	32	+0	open	—	03-18 23:39
Will EdgeX launch a token by December 31, 2026?	2	$63	31	31	+0	open	—	03-22 00:27
btc updown 5m 1774355700	4	$61	41	40	+1	open	—	03-24 12:40
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	2	$55	146	146	+0	No	+$9	03-12 09:53
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	2	$50	26	26	+0	open	—	04-28 03:11
btc updown 5m 1774262700	8	$44	49	48	+1	open	—	03-23 10:48
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	4	$42	21	21	+0	open	—	05-24 00:36
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	06-01 06:32
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	04-22 01:16
Will Solana reach $140 in May?	2	$40	20	20	+0	open	—	05-20 09:14
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	2	$36	18	18	+0	open	—	05-15 09:04
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	1	$35	35	0	+35	open	—	04-29 00:50
nba phi bos 2026 04 21	1	$32	117	0	+117	open	—	04-22 01:18
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	2	$30	16	16	+0	open	—	05-07 08:29
us x iran ceasefire by march 31	2	$30	16	16	+0	open	—	03-23 10:39
btc updown 15m 1769259600	4	$27	24	24	+0	open	—	01-24 13:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-12 01:46:27	Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?	No	BUY	8	94¢	$7	0x3ff182…
06-12 01:45:42	Will Neymar play in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	10	91¢	$9	0x00843f…
06-01 06:33:26	Will Neymar play in the World Cup?	Yes	BUY	10	90¢	$9	0x35a97a…
06-01 06:32:36	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x6d1634…
06-01 06:32:29	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x141945…
06-01 02:29:29	Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0x808505…
06-01 02:29:08	Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0xa0c7d5…
06-01 02:28:54	Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June?	No	SELL	7	99¢	$7	0x248c46…
06-01 02:28:49	Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30?	No	SELL	15	93¢	$14	0x6e8b91…
05-24 11:14:43	Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x0a6462…
05-24 00:37:07	Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May?	No	BUY	10	99¢	$10	0x55511a…
05-24 00:36:42	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	SELL	8	85¢	$7	0x978138…
05-24 00:36:37	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x29dd31…
05-23 01:07:34	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	BUY	8	97¢	$8	0xbf9468…
05-23 01:07:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	10	98¢	$10	0x515560…
05-23 01:06:56	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21?	Yes	BUY	10	100¢	$10	0xcad0a0…
05-22 02:19:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	SELL	11	99¢	$11	0x5eea9d…
05-20 09:15:06	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x8b0245…
05-20 09:14:29	Will Solana reach $140 in May?	No	SELL	20	100¢	$20	0x58dc63…
05-20 06:48:13	Will Solana reach $140 in May?	No	BUY	20	100¢	$20	0x4fc4b8…
05-16 03:17:11	Will XRP reach $2.00 in May?	No	SELL	11	97¢	$10	0x148ab4…
05-16 02:57:32	Will XRP reach $2.00 in May?	No	BUY	11	97¢	$10	0xdd43b0…
05-15 09:04:03	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	No	SELL	18	100¢	$18	0xedda29…
05-12 05:46:45	Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in May?	No	BUY	18	100¢	$18	0x445ee9…
05-12 05:46:03	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0xad15d4…
05-12 05:45:56	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	SELL	35	100¢	$35	0xb9528d…
05-07 08:32:12	Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in May?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0x4256ab…
05-07 08:31:56	Cerebras IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xe6783d…
05-07 08:29:57	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	No	SELL	16	96¢	$15	0x9fa0d7…
05-07 07:23:36	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?	No	BUY	16	96¢	$15	0xf98696…
05-07 07:23:20	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	No	SELL	5	100¢	$5	0x9ba5a9…
05-05 04:47:42	Will Trump visit China by May 8?	No	BUY	5	100¢	$5	0xb49176…
04-29 00:50:38	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?	No	BUY	35	100¢	$35	0xffd69b…
04-28 10:14:20	Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	43	97¢	$41	0x2a5adb…
04-28 03:11:34	Will Italy win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	43	97¢	$41	0xc9a557…
04-28 03:11:18	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	26	95¢	$25	0x869db5…
04-28 03:11:12	Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	26	95¢	$25	0x53154b…
04-28 03:10:44	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	No	SELL	42	100¢	$41	0x8beb66…
04-28 03:10:38	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by April 30?	No	BUY	42	100¢	$42	0xf026d1…
04-22 01:18:36	nba phi bos 2026 04 21	Celtics	BUY	117	27¢	$32	0x5fb1a8…
04-22 01:16:20	Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0x46c252…
04-18 10:06:56	Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	20	98¢	$20	0x9b8268…
04-18 10:05:42	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	12	99¢	$12	0x1da6cf…
04-17 00:36:32	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	12	99¢	$12	0xa6cdef…
04-14 09:32:05	btc updown 5m 1776159000	Up	SELL	13	30¢	$4	0x2d13e7…
04-14 09:30:29	btc updown 5m 1776159000	Up	BUY	13	38¢	$5	0x23599c…
04-14 09:30:15	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	SELL	10	98¢	$10	0xf52926…
04-14 09:30:07	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	SELL	11	98¢	$11	0xca9a66…
04-12 02:24:51	Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?	No	BUY	10	97¢	$10	0xf426d2…
04-12 02:24:29	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?	No	BUY	11	98¢	$11	0x106997…
04-12 02:24:13	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	SELL	34	98¢	$33	0x36e014…
04-09 14:51:19	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on April 30?	Yes	BUY	34	97¢	$33	0x033ebc…
04-07 00:21:07	nba det orl 2026 04 06	Pistons	BUY	12	16¢	$2	0x0466f4…
04-05 01:36:23	Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	36	100¢	$35	0x7bdfbc…
04-04 04:00:03	Will Albania win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	36	100¢	$36	0x567ca7…
03-30 09:01:46	will bitcoin reach 100k in march 2026	No	SELL	32	100¢	$32	0x989305…
03-27 23:49:35	will bitcoin reach 100k in march 2026	No	BUY	32	100¢	$32	0xba6760…
03-27 23:49:17	nba lac ind 2026 03 27	Clippers	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x771fe3…
03-24 12:40:11	btc updown 5m 1774355700	Down	SELL	34	99¢	$33	0x5f4c6a…
03-24 12:39:15	btc updown 5m 1774355700	Down	BUY	34	64¢	$22	0xd23057…
03-24 12:38:03	btc updown 5m 1774355700	Up	SELL	6	15¢	$1	0x286a0f…
03-24 12:36:45	btc updown 5m 1774355700	Up	BUY	6	77¢	$5	0xda5388…
03-23 10:50:29	btc updown 5m 1774263000	Down	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x8e8b5e…
03-23 10:48:25	btc updown 5m 1774262700	Down	SELL	10	56¢	$6	0x363f8f…
03-23 10:48:09	btc updown 5m 1774262700	Down	BUY	11	47¢	$5	0x251227…
03-23 10:47:55	btc updown 5m 1774262700	Up	SELL	9	61¢	$5	0x38491a…
03-23 10:47:29	btc updown 5m 1774262700	Up	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x641baa…
03-23 10:46:41	btc updown 5m 1774262700	Down	SELL	15	37¢	$6	0xb9e907…
03-23 10:46:27	btc updown 5m 1774262700	Down	BUY	16	32¢	$5	0xda01bc…
03-23 10:46:07	btc updown 5m 1774262700	Up	SELL	13	49¢	$7	0x99347e…
03-23 10:45:57	btc updown 5m 1774262700	Up	BUY	14	37¢	$5	0x42fd5d…
03-23 10:44:07	btc updown 5m 1774262400	Down	SELL	15	7¢	$1	0x14e01f…
03-23 10:42:31	btc updown 5m 1774262400	Down	BUY	15	33¢	$5	0x9897c1…
03-23 10:41:25	btc updown 5m 1774262400	Up	SELL	12	49¢	$6	0xb37277…
03-23 10:40:57	btc updown 5m 1774262400	Up	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0xd6db2e…
03-23 10:39:23	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	SELL	16	90¢	$15	0x5b9d23…
03-22 00:28:01	us x iran ceasefire by march 31	No	BUY	16	92¢	$15	0x06ec43…
03-22 00:27:39	Will EdgeX launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	31	100¢	$31	0x060e7a…
03-20 00:19:23	Will EdgeX launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	100¢	$31	0xe64230…
03-18 23:39:33	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	SELL	32	97¢	$31	0xe18310…
03-16 10:57:49	GTA VI released before June 2026?	No	BUY	32	97¢	$31	0x7c27c9…
03-12 09:53:15	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	SELL	146	22¢	$32	0xb8e7c6…
03-04 11:12:51	Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	BUY	146	16¢	$23	0x27fb5e…
02-10 09:41:13	nba atl cha 2026 02 11	Hornets	BUY	10	63¢	$6	0xfeccf8…
02-09 04:30:59	nba atl min 2026 02 09	Timberwolves	BUY	10	69¢	$7	0x5355b5…
01-24 13:16:54	afc u23 final china vs japan	China	BUY	30	26¢	$8	0xe3eedf…
01-24 13:09:58	btc updown 15m 1769259600	Up	SELL	8	42¢	$3	0xe4e184…
01-24 13:07:06	btc updown 15m 1769259600	Up	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x5a56ae…
01-24 13:02:12	btc updown 15m 1769259600	Up	SELL	16	61¢	$10	0xd772b3…
01-24 13:01:14	btc updown 15m 1769259600	Up	BUY	16	58¢	$9	0xb25c52…
01-24 12:17:08	btc updown 15m 1769256900	Down	BUY	4	45¢	$2	0xcdc717…
01-24 01:21:04	btc updown 15m 1769217300	Up	SELL	6	75¢	$4	0x95b1d9…
01-24 01:15:46	btc updown 15m 1769217300	Up	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x81ee0d…
01-23 12:38:02	btc updown 15m 1769171400	Down	BUY	239	63¢	$151	0x9e950e…
01-23 12:23:12	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	153	98¢	$151	0xc1d496…
01-23 12:22:14	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	153	98¢	$151	0x045723…
01-23 12:21:44	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	SELL	154	98¢	$151	0xf8081f…
01-23 12:21:22	no change in fed interest rates after january 2026 meeting	Yes	BUY	154	98¢	$151	0x4379ed…
01-23 12:02:56	btc updown 15m 1769169600	Down	SELL	349	44¢	$153	0x923ed9…
01-23 12:01:58	btc updown 15m 1769169600	Down	BUY	354	40¢	$142	0x5e3b85…