Wary-Catalysis — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$52

Unrealized P&L

-$13

Hit rate

63.4%

Resolved

Trades

131

lifetime

Volume

$1.43K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$11

Open exposure

$30

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-04

last 07-23 18:52

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 55 days

Categories

Politics

49% 49% -$68

Other

39% 57% +$6

Tech

12% 100% +$14

Crypto

1% 50% -$4

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-23).

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	+26	$20	64¢	$17	-$3	06-03 18:37
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	-13	-$10	92¢	$-12	-$2	05-13 18:34
will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	Yes	+31	$10	7¢	$2	-$8	07-01 08:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	2	$65	37	35	+2	Yes	+$3	03-06 00:23
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$60	66	0	+66	No	+$6	05-25 19:40
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	2	$45	53	0	+53	Yes	+$8	05-16 22:52
will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	2	$44	24	24	+0	Yes	+$4	02-20 09:08
Will France win on 2026-07-09?	1	$40	65	0	+65	Yes	+$25	07-06 21:58
israeli parliament dissolved by march 31 932	2	$40	55	0	+55	No	+$15	02-14 13:54
Will BTS release a new song in 2026?	2	$40	20	20	+0	Yes	$0	02-13 16:09
will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	2	$39	10	34	-24	No	$0	02-28 07:56
will iran strike israel on march 6	4	$36	37	29	+8	No	-$6	03-06 17:18
will the us next strike iran before march 2026 et	2	$35	33	33	+0	Yes	-$15	02-28 06:24
will hamas agree to disarm by march 31 966	2	$34	20	20	+0	No	+$4	03-06 00:20
will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	1	$30	33	0	+33	No	+$3	06-14 10:10
Will France win on 2026-07-04?	1	$30	36	0	+36	Yes	+$6	07-03 22:54
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?	2	$30	73	0	+73	No	-$30	07-07 19:56
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?	1	$30	35	0	+35	Yes	+$5	05-17 18:36
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May?	1	$30	32	0	+32	No	+$2	05-19 19:25
will israel strike gaza on march 8 2026	5	$27	51	51	+0	Yes	-$4	03-08 12:30
will christian menefee win tx 18 special election	1	$25	32	0	+32	Yes	+$7	01-10 10:26
maduro mugshot released by january 9	1	$22	45	0	+45	No	+$23	01-04 20:07
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	1	$20	25	0	+25	No	+$5	04-06 11:15
us strikes iran by january 15 2026 652 612	1	$20	47	0	+47	No	-$20	01-14 17:12
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	1	$20	26	0	+26	open	—	06-03 18:37
Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?	1	$20	31	0	+31	Yes	-$20	07-19 19:39
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	1	$20	22	0	+22	No	+$2	05-17 18:29
will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	1	$20	24	0	+24	No	+$4	06-19 22:43
will chatgpt be 1 free app in the us apple app store on february 6	1	$20	22	0	+22	Yes	+$2	02-01 21:23
Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?	1	$20	23	0	+23	No	+$3	05-17 18:29
will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	3	$19	22	16	+7	No	-$11	03-01 15:39
will apple be the third largest company in the world by market cap on january 31	2	$17	23	0	+23	Yes	+$6	01-12 20:31
trump declassifies new ufo files by july 7	1	$15	31	0	+31	No	+$16	07-01 09:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-23 18:52:39	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 25 20260716224448967 454	No	BUY	33	31¢	$10	0x27d53d…
07-23 18:52:13	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519	No	BUY	22	46¢	$10	0x3c3457…
07-19 19:39:25	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	BUY	4	24¢	$1	0x554270…
07-19 19:39:09	Will Spain vs. Argentina end in a draw?	No	BUY	31	64¢	$20	0xeebf4f…
07-11 16:56:35	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	17	58¢	$10	0x414bf4…
07-08 21:51:32	us iran 60 day negotiation period extended 20260624044855448	Yes	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0x032351…
07-07 19:56:53	Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	37	41¢	$15	0x0915f5…
07-07 19:56:52	Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	37	41¢	$15	0x31fc86…
07-06 21:58:17	Will France win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	BUY	65	62¢	$40	0x8a7717…
07-03 23:29:10	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 31 961	No	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0xfe956f…
07-03 23:29:05	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 15	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0xab66ee…
07-03 23:24:11	Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	9	54¢	$5	0x83a1a6…
07-03 23:24:02	Will United States vs. Belgium end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	17	30¢	$5	0xa32370…
07-03 23:23:53	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xc57056…
07-03 22:54:46	Will France win on 2026-07-04?	Yes	BUY	36	83¢	$30	0x2a5bb7…
07-01 09:05:04	trump declassifies new ufo files by july 7	No	BUY	31	48¢	$15	0x9742e8…
07-01 08:56:31	will lebanon recognize israel by december 31	Yes	BUY	31	32¢	$10	0x42dad5…
06-19 22:44:02	Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	BUY	15	68¢	$10	0xd04c61…
06-19 22:43:11	will trump praise allah again by june 30 20260610152457610	No	BUY	24	84¢	$20	0x846bd8…
06-15 17:25:01	Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15?	No	BUY	18	85¢	$15	0x8a138b…
06-14 10:12:42	Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30?	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x117faf…
06-14 10:10:48	will trump agree to iranian enrichment of uranium by june 30	No	BUY	33	92¢	$30	0x1d5262…
06-03 18:37:04	Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	No	BUY	26	77¢	$20	0xc70267…
05-25 19:40:29	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	66	91¢	$60	0x360fca…
05-19 19:31:10	Will Starmer say "Trump" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	BUY	12	80¢	$10	0xe660cd…
05-19 19:25:48	Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May?	No	BUY	32	93¢	$30	0x938e9a…
05-17 18:41:32	Will MrBeast's next video get between 46 and 48 million views on day 2?	No	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0xc3c506…
05-17 18:36:15	Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?	Yes	BUY	35	86¢	$30	0x130c91…
05-17 18:29:55	Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week?	No	BUY	22	90¢	$20	0x99a91e…
05-17 18:29:27	Israel military action on Damascus by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	23	87¢	$20	0xdc4223…
05-16 22:55:40	Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x2b09c7…
05-16 22:55:23	Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	19	7¢	$1	0xa7f930…
05-16 22:53:52	Will Bulgaria win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	46	33¢	$15	0x3ecc33…
05-16 22:52:36	Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	92¢	$5	0xb779ac…
05-13 18:34:31	Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	No	SELL	13	80¢	$10	0x46071f…
05-13 18:31:55	Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	23	20¢	$5	0xcd5f61…
05-13 18:31:40	Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	12¢	$3	0x128e74…
05-04 20:52:48	Will Trump say "Cocaine" this week?	No	BUY	4	86¢	$4	0x415811…
05-04 20:52:16	Will Trump say "Six Seven" this week?	No	BUY	6	82¢	$5	0x5243d1…
05-04 20:50:56	Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	47	85¢	$40	0xdd412e…
04-09 22:27:45	Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	18	81¢	$14	0xe7f783…
04-06 11:27:55	Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x81b3fb…
04-06 11:27:27	Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	14¢	$2	0x2db761…
04-06 11:27:15	Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x8fea08…
04-06 11:26:37	Will Finland win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0x33a116…
04-06 11:26:31	Will Greece win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	17¢	$2	0x28ae04…
04-06 11:26:27	Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026?	Yes	BUY	17	36¢	$6	0x85075c…
04-06 11:25:43	will mrbeasts next video get between 50 and 53 million views on day 2 796	Yes	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x627518…
04-06 11:20:51	Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x17bedd…
04-06 11:20:49	Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x910e4a…
04-06 11:15:27	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	25	81¢	$20	0x2dfee5…
04-01 09:55:39	Will Olivia Rodrigo announce a new album by April 30?	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x7e5a14…
03-24 12:21:27	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	SELL	14	14¢	$2	0x3338de…
03-16 23:50:55	Will an Iranian agent be charged in the US by April 30?	No	BUY	3	67¢	$2	0xe45669…
03-16 23:46:33	will crude oil cl hit high 100 by end of march 658 396 769 971	Yes	BUY	13	77¢	$10	0x9b4956…
03-14 23:59:57	will mrbeast say subscribe during his next video 268	Yes	BUY	6	63¢	$4	0x404b51…
03-14 23:51:15	military action against iran ends by march 31 2026	No	BUY	18	84¢	$15	0xa0abf5…
03-14 11:38:03	will crude oil cl hit high 110 by end of march 732 945 787 552	Yes	BUY	14	74¢	$10	0x384ad6…
03-14 11:34:59	will one battle after another win best film editing at the 98th academy awards	Yes	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0x28723a…
03-08 12:30:33	will israel strike gaza on march 8 2026	Yes	SELL	45	16¢	$7	0xccbb0c…
03-08 12:25:11	will israel strike gaza on march 8 2026	Yes	BUY	16	30¢	$5	0xbee345…
03-08 12:24:55	will israel strike gaza on march 8 2026	No	SELL	6	79¢	$5	0xbc7a14…
03-08 12:24:07	will israel strike gaza on march 8 2026	Yes	BUY	29	20¢	$6	0xb80519…
03-06 17:18:59	will iran strike israel on march 6	No	BUY	8	62¢	$5	0x553473…
03-06 17:18:37	will iran strike israel on march 6	Yes	SELL	29	37¢	$11	0x1ad6e8…
03-06 00:28:51	will israel strike gaza on march 9 2026	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x62b1da…
03-06 00:28:47	will israel strike gaza on march 8 2026	No	BUY	6	86¢	$5	0xd3c162…
03-06 00:27:41	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0xe04b9c…
03-06 00:24:07	will iran strike israel on march 8	Yes	BUY	20	50¢	$10	0x762727…
03-06 00:24:03	will iran strike israel on march 7	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0xe2ccaf…
03-06 00:23:57	will iran strike israel on march 6	Yes	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x7465ef…
03-06 00:23:37	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	SELL	35	94¢	$33	0xf0d37d…
03-06 00:20:27	will iran strike israel on march 7	Yes	BUY	9	55¢	$5	0x6a1e15…
03-06 00:20:21	will iran strike israel on march 6	Yes	BUY	22	68¢	$15	0xb601ea…
03-06 00:20:07	will hamas agree to disarm by march 31 966	No	SELL	20	94¢	$19	0xbc5b2c…
03-01 17:51:49	will another country strike iran by march 31 833	Yes	BUY	5	62¢	$3	0x68a8e4…
03-01 15:39:07	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	Yes	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0xef819a…
03-01 15:35:49	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	No	SELL	16	26¢	$4	0x1bdfbb…
03-01 11:26:43	will saudi arabia strike iran by march 31	No	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0x5ee860…
02-28 17:21:13	iran strike on israel by february 28	Yes	BUY	17	89¢	$15	0x459e39…
02-28 07:56:27	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 323	Yes	BUY	37	86¢	$32	0x98cbd5…
02-28 07:56:07	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	No	SELL	34	93¢	$31	0x478bbc…
02-28 06:25:03	us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	Yes	BUY	15	67¢	$10	0xd1bdc4…
02-28 06:24:39	will the us next strike iran before march 2026 et	No	SELL	33	31¢	$10	0x9e869b…
02-28 06:24:33	nothing ever happens israel edition	Yes	SELL	19	2¢	$0	0x9fc8d7…
02-20 09:08:40	will the us next strike iran before march 2026 et	No	BUY	33	75¢	$25	0x7c2244…
02-20 09:08:22	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	Yes	SELL	24	99¢	$24	0x4146a3…
02-14 13:54:33	israeli parliament dissolved by march 31 932	No	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0x1861c9…
02-14 10:06:41	Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	11	0¢	$0	0x8492a9…
02-13 16:14:41	will trumps approval rating be between 41pt5 and 41pt9 on february 20 2026	No	BUY	5	96¢	$5	0x14d81f…
02-13 16:14:31	will trumps approval rating be between 41pt0 and 41pt4 on february 20 2026	No	BUY	6	89¢	$5	0xa046a9…
02-13 16:14:05	will trumps approval rating be between 40pt0 and 40pt4 on february 20 2026	No	BUY	6	84¢	$5	0x1b4597…
02-13 16:10:29	will trumps approval rating be between 40pt5 and 40pt9 on february 20 2026	No	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0xedd0d8…
02-13 16:09:09	Will BTS release a new song in 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	97¢	$20	0x41b4a4…
02-13 16:08:55	Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	SELL	15	96¢	$14	0x1e229b…
02-08 20:15:09	will nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on february 28 846	Yes	BUY	24	82¢	$20	0xbf9a00…
02-08 20:11:51	spx opens up or down on february 9 2026	Up	BUY	15	65¢	$10	0x824ddc…
02-06 18:15:53	BTC Up/Down 15m · 2026-02-06 18:15 UTC	Down	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xc47f1a…
02-06 16:01:15	nothing ever happens israel edition	Yes	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0x7a2e5b…
02-06 16:00:03	will apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on march 31 336	No	BUY	10	81¢	$8	0x3e9535…