Wasteful-Rabbit — Polymarket

Realized P&L (7d)

+$18

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

66.7%

Resolved (7d)

Trades (7d)

2,369 lifetime

Volume (7d)

$18.5K lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-05-25

last 10-22 06:12

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 151 days

Categories

Other

73% 33% -$380

Politics

14% 39% +$74

Tech

5% 36% +$26

Sports

3% 36% +$50

Pop-Culture

2% 33% -$4

Crypto

2% 20% -$52

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

65 active days in 12wk • peak 112 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Papertrade FDV above $400M one day after launch?	No		+0	$0	77¢	$0	+$0	10-01 10:21

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Maxime Vachier-Lagrave win Titled Tuesday on October 20?	2	$149	80	80	+0	No	-$10	10-15 23:33
Will UConn win the 2027 NCAA Men's Basketball National Championship?	4	$141	80	80	+0	open	—	09-29 00:34
Will "Forgotten Island" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 13m?	2	$101	80	80	+0	No	+$59	09-28 19:54
Will Microstrategy announce selling any Bitcoin September 29-October 5?	2	$100	80	80	+0	No	+$59	10-05 11:56
Will "Heart of the Beast" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m?	2	$100	80	80	+0	No	+$58	09-28 19:54
Will "Verity" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?	2	$100	80	80	+0	No	+$58	10-12 19:45
Will the CAQ win 5 or more seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?	2	$99	80	80	+0	No	+$58	10-06 04:36
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	2	$99	80	80	+0	No	+$58	10-20 08:21
Will “Swim” by BTS win Song of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	7	$99	80	80	+0	Yes	+$58	09-28 04:14
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	2	$99	80	80	+0	No	+$57	10-06 19:34
Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	5	$99	80	80	+0	No	+$57	10-05 00:01
Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 32m?	4	$99	80	80	+0	No	+$57	10-05 02:38
Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 5m?	8	$99	80	80	+0	No	+$57	10-12 05:34
Will the #1 global Netflix show have between 12 and 15 million views this week?	2	$98	80	80	+0	No	+$57	10-11 19:39
Will Google have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	6	$98	80	80	+0	No	+$57	10-05 00:08
Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	8	$98	80	80	+0	Yes	+$56	10-05 00:03
Will MrBeast's next video get between 207 and 215 million views on week 1?	3	$97	80	80	+0	No	+$56	10-10 10:55
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 15 and 17.5 million views on day 1?	2	$97	80	80	+0	No	+$56	10-11 06:20
Will Choi-wan peak as a Violent typhoon?	4	$97	80	80	+0	No	+$55	10-07 16:49
Will "Patient Zero - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 10?	2	$96	80	80	+0	No	+$55	09-29 12:40
Will a 9.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	4	$96	80	80	+0	No	+$54	10-16 07:31
Will “Where Is My Husband!” by Raye win Song of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?	8	$95	75	75	+0	No	+$56	09-28 04:12
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 20 and 22.5 million views on day 1?	4	$94	80	80	+0	No	+$52	10-11 20:08
Will Nolo peak at Category 5?	2	$94	80	80	+0	No	+$52	09-28 19:56
Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by October 31?	5	$93	80	80	+0	No	+$52	10-16 19:30
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Mike Rogers by October 31, 2026?	3	$93	80	80	+0	No	+$51	10-09 07:14
Will "Primetime" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 22m?	3	$92	80	80	+0	No	+$51	09-25 21:54
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.60% in October?	2	$92	80	80	+0	No	+$51	10-13 06:37
Will the US announce a diesel export ban by September 30?	2	$92	80	80	+0	No	+$50	09-23 21:32
will the 1 global netflix movie have at least 15 million views this week 20260929	9	$91	80	79	+1	Yes	+$50	09-27 10:07

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-22 06:12:41	Will there be 3 earthquakes of 6.5 or above magnitude worldwide?	No	SELL	10	1¢	$0	0xee88ab…
10-22 01:47:05	Will MrBeast hit 144.5 billion views by October 31?	No	SELL	5	2¢	$0	0xaa6460…
10-22 01:46:56	Will MrBeast hit 144.5 billion views by October 31?	No	SELL	75	2¢	$2	0x963038…
10-22 01:25:18	Will MrBeast hit 524 million subscribers by October 31?	No	SELL	70	2¢	$1	0x0669d0…
10-22 01:15:54	Will MrBeast hit 524 million subscribers by October 31?	No	SELL	10	2¢	$0	0xc18822…
10-22 01:09:42	Will SDP BiH win the third most seats in the 2026 Bosnian general election?	No	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0xd152b5…
10-22 01:09:24	Will 1. FC Köln qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Conference League?	No	SELL	4	1¢	$0	0xa82f4e…
10-22 01:07:30	Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $30 in 2026?	No	SELL	3	18¢	$1	0xc475d4…
10-22 01:07:09	Will Holtec Nuclear not IPO before November 2026?	No	SELL	40	0¢	$0	0x34e8b5…
10-22 00:48:26	Will Claude Opus's output price be at or below $15 in 2026?	No	SELL	20	13¢	$3	0xbfc2d7…
10-22 00:47:51	Will 1. FC Köln qualify for the 2027-28 UEFA Conference League?	No	SELL	16	29¢	$5	0xe50387…
10-22 00:43:50	Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 12-October 18?	No	SELL	80	0¢	$0	0xeb96d1…
10-22 00:43:36	Will the Parti Québécois win by between 20 and 29 seats?	No	SELL	80	0¢	$0	0xdb85d3…
10-22 00:36:29	Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Coding) at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	10	8¢	$1	0x1cf850…
10-22 00:36:17	Will Barcelona win the 2026-27 LALIGA Championship?	No	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0xdc45ab…
10-22 00:36:06	Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	80	1¢	$0	0xc29e86…
10-22 00:35:56	Will Loki die in Avengers: Doomsday?	No	SELL	5	17¢	$1	0x59bca9…
10-22 00:35:36	Will there be 5 or more ChatGPT outages in October 2026?	No	SELL	80	0¢	$0	0x18cf66…
10-22 00:35:27	Will Peter Freshney win the next Latrobe mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0x24f8e9…
10-22 00:35:14	Will Waymo operate in 12-15 cities on December 31 2026?	No	SELL	5	18¢	$1	0xe253cf…
10-22 00:35:05	Will SB Energy not IPO before January 2027?	No	SELL	40	1¢	$0	0xb9e54a…
10-22 00:34:44	Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by December 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	11¢	$1	0x2dc17e…
10-22 00:34:30	Will the Ornn H100 Index hit $3.50 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	61¢	$3	0x89334e…
10-22 00:34:17	Massachusetts passes jungle primary ballot measure?	No	SELL	9	36¢	$3	0x75d0ae…
10-22 00:33:29	Next Gemini Flash Model (3.9+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	2¢	$1	0x43f4c8…
10-22 00:33:15	Will Microsoft (MSFT) have the biggest single-day move of the Mag 7 in 2026?	No	SELL	3	27¢	$1	0x54cbe6…
10-22 00:33:03	Will there be exactly 6 UK parliamentary by-elections in 2026?	No	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0xf2ca96…
10-22 00:32:48	California Rainy Day Fund Proposition	No	SELL	6	5¢	$0	0x1253b2…
10-22 00:32:38	Will OpenAI be the second-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xd7c738…
10-22 00:32:24	Will another sitting Australian MP join One Nation in 2026?	No	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0xc2ecff…
10-22 00:17:06	Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?	No	SELL	80	4¢	$3	0xd46130…
10-22 00:16:23	Will Hong Kong have between 70-120mm of precipitation in October?	No	SELL	80	2¢	$1	0x139df0…
10-22 00:15:32	Will Hsu Hsin-ying win the next Hsinchu County Magistrate election?	Yes	SELL	20	6¢	$1	0x8795cb…
10-22 00:14:57	Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	8¢	$3	0x63195d…
10-22 00:14:45	Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	15¢	$3	0xb6b413…
10-22 00:14:11	Will any player have 10+ interceptions in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	SELL	80	7¢	$6	0xcb70e4…
10-22 00:13:54	Will Conservative win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	No	SELL	80	10¢	$8	0x1feb7f…
10-22 00:13:00	Will Ben Johns be Number 1 in the PPA 2026-27 Men's End of Year Rankings?	No	SELL	40	23¢	$9	0x553855…
10-22 00:12:47	Will Ben Rice lead the 2026 MLB Postseason in home runs?	No	SELL	23	44¢	$10	0xa69a57…
10-22 00:12:24	Will gas be below $3.75/gallon in any state on October 31?	No	SELL	80	15¢	$12	0xaab4dc…
10-22 00:12:11	Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $25 in 2026?	No	SELL	80	9¢	$7	0xae82b3…
10-22 00:11:47	Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #2 song for the week of October 31?	No	SELL	80	23¢	$18	0x1e17e1…
10-22 00:11:23	Will the PLQ win 40-43 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?	No	SELL	40	98¢	$39	0x9a263c…
10-22 00:11:12	Will a transfer restriction on Manchester City be applied by the 2027 summer transfer window?	No	SELL	75	52¢	$39	0x8334f3…
10-22 00:10:50	Will Anthropic’s valuation be less than $500B at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	80	31¢	$25	0x117c0c…
10-22 00:10:36	Will Anthropic’s valuation be between $500B and $750B at the end of November 2026?	No	SELL	80	33¢	$26	0x0f75d7…
10-22 00:10:18	Will Eli Lilly (LLY) Q3 Zepbound sales be above $5.5B?	No	SELL	80	37¢	$30	0x8bf8d9…
10-22 00:04:11	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	No	SELL	10	12¢	$1	0x72f91a…
10-22 00:03:45	Will Thor die in Avengers: Doomsday?	No	SELL	5	35¢	$2	0x04c522…
10-22 00:03:35	Will Blue and White win less than 0.75% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	No	SELL	40	4¢	$1	0xb58ee0…
10-22 00:02:41	Will Ant-Man die in Avengers: Doomsday?	No	SELL	5	47¢	$2	0x6e2fe3…
10-22 00:02:30	Will Discord not IPO by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	5	51¢	$3	0x3d2e1e…
10-22 00:02:14	Will Jesse Love win the 2026 NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series championship?	No	SELL	4	48¢	$2	0xe9a8ed…
10-22 00:02:02	James Comey charges dropped by December 31?	Yes	SELL	10	27¢	$3	0x0afad1…
10-22 00:01:51	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?	Yes	SELL	10	27¢	$3	0xf29184…
10-21 23:42:14	Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?	No	SELL	80	11¢	$8	0xc02ed6…
10-21 23:42:05	Will Iran target Jordan by October 31, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	20¢	$8	0x991030…
10-21 23:41:09	Will the USS George H.W. Bush be in CENTCOM on November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	80	12¢	$9	0x004c91…
10-21 23:40:50	Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	40	35¢	$14	0x1b8aa5…
10-21 23:40:36	Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.50% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	33¢	$13	0x1aa87a…
10-21 23:40:21	Will Dua Lipa headline Coachella 2027?	Yes	SELL	25	55¢	$14	0x2a8a6a…
10-21 23:40:06	First Round Outright Winner in the Georgia Governor Election?	Yes	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0x225d84…
10-21 23:39:56	Will the Rhine River return to normal levels between October 1 and October 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	35¢	$14	0x8cf496…
10-21 23:39:44	First Round Outright Winner in the GA-14 House Election?	Yes	SELL	19	62¢	$12	0x95307b…
10-21 23:39:32	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.20% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	38¢	$15	0xc03f1a…
10-21 23:39:15	Will UKMTO publish fewer than 8 notices between October 19-October 25?	No	SELL	80	18¢	$14	0x627c50…
10-21 23:39:00	Will The Odyssey win Best Production Design at the 99th Academy Awards?	No	SELL	38	27¢	$10	0x60800f…
10-21 23:38:33	Will Don Toliver be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	No	SELL	80	19¢	$15	0x410827…
10-21 23:38:15	Will Kodak Black be featured on GTA VI: The Album?	No	SELL	80	20¢	$16	0xef1ec1…
10-21 23:37:24	Will Jimmy Gomez win the CA-34 House seat?	Yes	SELL	5	20¢	$1	0xd74bde…
10-21 23:37:02	Will Angela Gonzales-Torres win the CA-34 House seat?	No	SELL	5	21¢	$1	0xab9ada…
10-21 23:36:48	Republican Senate odds hit 40% by October 31?	Yes	SELL	80	4¢	$3	0x7f8df1…
10-21 23:36:29	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Rhode Island Senate election by 30% or more?	No	SELL	10	46¢	$5	0x9097f6…
10-21 23:36:20	Will Jumper launch a token by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	40	18¢	$7	0x43059e…
10-21 23:36:11	Will OpenRouter process between 675T and 725T tokens from Sep 28 to Oct 25?	No	SELL	80	7¢	$6	0x6e0a98…
10-21 23:35:59	Will Ben Johns win zero Triple Crowns in the 2026-27 PPA Tour season?	No	SELL	13	50¢	$6	0xc1a8db…
10-21 23:35:45	Will Meta be the #3 AI Lab at the end of October 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	SELL	20	33¢	$7	0xff67aa…
10-21 23:35:32	Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by October 31?	Yes	SELL	40	16¢	$6	0x56b819…
10-21 23:35:20	Will Google be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of October 2026?	No	SELL	20	34¢	$7	0x05e91c…
10-21 23:35:11	Will Marilyn Crawford win the 2026 Ajax mayoral election?	No	SELL	40	17¢	$7	0xcfbb74…
10-21 23:34:59	Will Chen Chen-chung win the next Penghu County Magistrate election?	No	SELL	20	29¢	$6	0x4306d7…
10-21 23:34:39	Will NDP win the second most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	No	SELL	80	10¢	$8	0xdd8580…
10-21 23:34:29	Will Lee Shu-chuan win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	Yes	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0x802499…
10-21 23:33:02	Will Conservative win the second most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	SELL	80	10¢	$8	0x3669c3…
10-21 23:32:48	Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Yes	SELL	80	10¢	$8	0xdc2b3e…
10-21 23:32:36	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	40	21¢	$8	0xd0bc1f…
10-21 23:32:26	Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?	No	SELL	20	43¢	$9	0x437d81…
10-21 23:32:14	Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Yes	SELL	80	11¢	$9	0x92ffd5…
10-21 23:32:02	Will there be between 35 and 59 tornadoes in the US in October 2026?	No	SELL	80	10¢	$8	0x1f7b2d…
10-21 23:31:50	Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia?	No	SELL	80	11¢	$9	0x7a8590…
10-21 23:31:38	Jumper listed on OKX within 30 days of TGE?	No	SELL	20	49¢	$10	0xb212ce…
10-21 23:28:47	Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.3 or 4,189.4 ft?	No	SELL	80	23¢	$18	0x84f45a…
10-21 23:28:38	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.40% in October?	No	SELL	80	11¢	$9	0x04244b…
10-21 23:28:26	Will Alexi Giannoulias win the 2027 Chicago mayoral election?	No	SELL	80	27¢	$22	0x3ee61b…
10-21 23:28:12	Will GitHub's longest critical incident in October 2026 be between 3 and 6 hours?	No	SELL	80	26¢	$21	0x3db6e6…
10-21 23:27:50	Will Anthropic's frontier output token price be at or above $30 in 2026?	No	SELL	57	29¢	$16	0x502f77…
10-21 23:27:26	Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026-27 NHL Presidents' Trophy?	No	SELL	30	57¢	$17	0x01a92d…
10-21 23:26:23	US Government removes public access to another major AI model in 2026?	Yes	SELL	6	13¢	$1	0x582e2b…
10-21 23:25:44	Netanyahu convicted in corruption trial?	No	SELL	15	66¢	$10	0x13cb6c…
10-21 23:25:12	Will the Fed Hike–Pause–Hike in the next three decisions (Sep–Oct–Dec)?	No	SELL	40	28¢	$11	0x603dcc…