Chilly-Bongo — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$2.28K

Unrealized P&L

+$444

Hit rate

52.9%

Resolved

194

Trades

1,965

lifetime

Volume

$344.5K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$175

Open exposure

$689

1 position

First seen

2026-01-04

last 10-06 12:10

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 73 days

Categories

Other

54% 48% +$7,162

Politics

26% 48% -$10,794

Tech

21% 53% +$1,303

Sports

0% 100% +$46

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

20 active days in 12wk • peak 36 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No		+695	$245	99¢	$689	+$444	09-30 20:09

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
khamenei out as supreme leader of iran by february 28	19	$18.2K	10,000	10,000	+0	Yes	+$1,772	03-01 07:05
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	61	$17.3K	22,018	22,018	+0	Yes	-$6,038	08-05 16:11
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of march 2026 437	139	$16.7K	17,964	18,090	-125	Yes	-$427	03-20 16:08
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	24	$16.2K	20,000	20,000	+0	No	-$1,175	05-26 02:55
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	32	$15.5K	14,107	14,107	+0	No	-$4,391	05-20 17:02
will anthropic have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	48	$12.8K	10,158	10,158	+0	Yes	+$1,226	02-19 16:52
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	39	$11.5K	7,227	7,217	+10	Yes	-$1,816	05-09 00:22
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	68	$10.2K	17,380	17,380	+0	No	+$4,087	05-05 16:50
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?	33	$10.0K	6,542	6,532	+10	No	-$1,999	05-11 23:16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	22	$9.1K	17,000	17,000	+0	No	-$3,770	05-27 16:44
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	14	$8.2K	5,200	5,200	+0	Yes	+$396	06-16 02:48
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 18 million 565	9	$7.7K	3,094	6,094	-3,000	No	+$663	02-16 06:16
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?	9	$7.5K	9,996	569	+9,427	No	+$2,929	06-21 17:47
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of April 2026?	1	$7.0K	7,486	0	+7,486	Yes	+$449	04-29 16:12
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 17 million 669	26	$7.0K	5,321	5,310	+11	No	+$2,604	02-16 06:16
val bbl1 nrg 2026 03 07	17	$6.5K	4,701	4,701	+0	NRG	-$36	03-07 20:14
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	12	$5.4K	3,000	3,000	+0	Yes	+$527	04-13 02:21
will 80 or more ships transit the strait of hormuz between april 13 april 19 362	7	$5.2K	5,668	0	+5,668	Yes	+$436	04-21 13:04
deepseek v4 released by april 24	17	$5.1K	6,465	0	+6,465	Yes	+$1,327	04-24 04:20
will google have the best ai model at the end of february 2026	39	$5.1K	10,975	1,347	+9,628	No	+$892	02-19 16:52
Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1480?	7	$5.1K	5,542	0	+5,542	No	+$472	04-27 17:44
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 15 million 268	7	$4.6K	2,979	2,979	+0	Yes	+$709	02-16 04:18
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	14	$4.4K	4,000	4,000	+0	Yes	-$274	01-29 23:55
will 15 19 ships transit the strait of hormuz between march 17 23	23	$4.0K	4,509	1,196	+3,314	Yes	+$312	03-31 12:46
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 8 million	39	$4.0K	5,613	4,300	+1,313	Yes	-$725	01-08 07:51
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	2	$3.6K	2,000	2,000	+0	No	+$322	04-13 02:21
Chirayu Rana sued?	2	$3.4K	3,999	0	+3,999	Yes	+$580	05-05 20:34
Will Google have the third best AI model at the end of April 2026?	76	$3.3K	6,804	1,802	+5,002	Yes	+$3,478	04-29 18:25
will logan pauls psa 10 pokmon illustrator sale price be over 10 million	5	$2.9K	1,000	2,356	-1,356	Yes	+$417	02-16 03:30
val eg2 nrg 2026 08 09 map handicap home 1pt5	1	$2.7K	4,709	0	+4,709	NRG	+$2,028	08-09 19:56

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-06 12:10:12	Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 28-October 4?	Yes	BUY	26	74¢	$19	0xdf21df…
10-02 16:08:32	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	270	40¢	$107	0x2a0123…
10-01 01:13:56	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	SELL	36	53¢	$19	0x6bb67c…
10-01 01:13:35	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	SELL	100	53¢	$53	0xd4b60a…
10-01 00:51:29	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	SELL	20	53¢	$11	0x54b587…
10-01 00:37:51	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?	Yes	SELL	204	57¢	$116	0xd60da5…
10-01 00:37:51	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1495?	Yes	SELL	14	63¢	$9	0x94fc92…
09-30 20:26:03	Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	87¢	$18	0x827069…
09-30 20:25:11	Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	15	89¢	$13	0xf58b42…
09-30 20:18:05	Will Xiaomi have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	40¢	$12	0x5c3520…
09-30 20:14:27	Will any AI model reach 1530 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	430	81¢	$349	0x5fa909…
09-30 20:12:12	Will Google have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	400	64¢	$258	0x88ddd9…
09-30 20:09:36	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	No	BUY	695	35¢	$245	0xf6894e…
09-01 19:29:12	Will any other model be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	70	57¢	$40	0x7ac26e…
09-01 19:05:01	Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	86	39¢	$34	0x581810…
09-01 18:52:15	Will claude-opus-5-max be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0x86d71a…
09-01 18:01:52	Will any other model be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	30	60¢	$18	0x5608ae…
09-01 18:01:42	Will any other model be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	54	60¢	$33	0xfb9a30…
09-01 17:59:49	Will any other model be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	89	60¢	$53	0x8b2ca8…
09-01 17:59:39	Will any other model be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	23	60¢	$13	0xd88c67…
09-01 17:59:28	Will any other model be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	50	60¢	$30	0xfe79a6…
09-01 08:46:45	Will any other model be the best AI model on September 7, 2026?	No	BUY	20	56¢	$11	0x17d297…
08-27 18:08:13	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	21¢	$7	0x310fb0…
08-25 05:43:24	Will Alibaba be the third-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0xf25d26…
08-22 02:02:51	Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	38	39¢	$15	0xab27b7…
08-22 01:26:48	Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	178	39¢	$69	0x58e94a…
08-22 01:22:54	Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0xbc9f12…
08-22 01:22:28	Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	39¢	$17	0x8488a8…
08-22 01:22:09	Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	33	39¢	$13	0x8a6a46…
08-22 01:22:06	Will Moonshot be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	31	21¢	$6	0x997828…
08-19 20:02:10	Will claude-opus-5-high be the best AI model on August 24, 2026?	No	BUY	48	50¢	$24	0xa44f9a…
08-19 07:13:22	Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	35¢	$10	0x45ced4…
08-19 07:13:01	Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	30¢	$9	0x4b83fa…
08-19 07:12:00	Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	32	25¢	$8	0xb1b61c…
08-18 17:27:36	Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	50	29¢	$14	0xce1b1c…
08-18 17:22:30	Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xbd7d64…
08-18 13:50:30	Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0x3bfb53…
08-18 13:15:31	Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	15	29¢	$4	0x9f1772…
08-18 13:15:01	Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xf64e8e…
08-18 12:33:25	Will 200-219 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between August 10-August 16?	Yes	BUY	10	74¢	$7	0x13c214…
08-18 11:30:49	Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	29¢	$3	0x10eeb4…
08-18 08:06:42	Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	28	29¢	$8	0x6fdec7…
08-18 07:22:33	Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0xc12d94…
08-18 06:42:21	Will Baidu be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	61	28¢	$17	0xbd47e3…
08-18 06:42:21	Will Alibaba be the #3 AI Lab at the end of August 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	BUY	128	14¢	$18	0x77ca02…
08-16 09:32:25	Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	220	39¢	$86	0x142d86…
08-15 23:54:06	Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	38¢	$8	0x8cb72b…
08-15 20:23:52	Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0x044b61…
08-15 16:47:12	Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	45	39¢	$18	0x96292c…
08-15 09:23:03	Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	39¢	$12	0xb07439…
08-15 08:56:40	Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	21	39¢	$8	0x4d2796…
08-15 05:06:16	Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	35	27¢	$9	0x3d8925…
08-15 05:06:06	Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	27¢	$5	0x40f75a…
08-15 05:05:55	Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	28¢	$11	0xdd1205…
08-15 05:05:46	Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	28¢	$6	0xb979d3…
08-15 04:41:46	Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	29¢	$6	0xd1cba3…
08-14 09:50:34	Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0xdcfd58…
08-14 09:35:25	Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x713fac…
08-14 00:07:42	Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	39¢	$10	0x55058e…
08-13 23:52:22	Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	BUY	60	35¢	$21	0x2db3c6…
08-12 20:23:04	will the next grok model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1450 by december 31 2026 20260804194832574	No	BUY	79	84¢	$66	0x91c444…
08-12 20:22:43	will the next grok model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1450 by december 31 2026 20260804194832574	No	BUY	89	84¢	$75	0x847562…
08-12 20:22:33	will the next grok model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1450 by december 31 2026 20260804194832574	No	BUY	72	84¢	$60	0xfc2b2d…
08-12 20:22:22	will the next grok model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1450 by december 31 2026 20260804194832574	No	BUY	51	84¢	$43	0x700f58…
08-12 20:22:12	will the next grok model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1450 by december 31 2026 20260804194832574	No	BUY	59	84¢	$50	0x60f596…
08-12 20:21:52	will the next grok model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1450 by december 31 2026 20260804194832574	No	BUY	51	84¢	$43	0x240a75…
08-12 20:21:10	will the next grok model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1450 by december 31 2026 20260804194832574	No	BUY	64	84¢	$54	0x92f623…
08-12 20:18:37	will the next grok model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1450 by december 31 2026 20260804194832574	No	BUY	38	84¢	$32	0xa0532a…
08-12 20:18:27	will the next grok model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1450 by december 31 2026 20260804194832574	No	BUY	89	84¢	$75	0x249b02…
08-12 20:18:16	will the next grok model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1450 by december 31 2026 20260804194832574	No	BUY	86	84¢	$72	0xe91425…
08-12 20:18:07	will the next grok model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1450 by december 31 2026 20260804194832574	No	BUY	86	84¢	$72	0x88860b…
08-12 19:03:00	will the next grok model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1450 by december 31 2026 20260804194832574	No	BUY	8	84¢	$7	0xee3fd2…
08-12 18:21:54	will the next grok model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1450 by december 31 2026 20260804194832574	No	BUY	75	84¢	$63	0x0e2565…
08-12 18:07:36	will the next grok model 4pt6 debut at a score of at least 1450 by december 31 2026 20260804194832574	No	BUY	161	84¢	$135	0xc36e92…
08-11 19:22:06	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	414	19¢	$79	0x907b47…
08-11 19:22:04	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	25	19¢	$5	0xb47d98…
08-11 19:22:03	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	385	19¢	$73	0x991ff8…
08-11 19:22:03	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	12	19¢	$2	0x749690…
08-11 19:22:03	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	239	19¢	$45	0x37c809…
08-11 19:22:00	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	54	19¢	$10	0x380b61…
08-11 19:21:57	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	24	19¢	$5	0xb449ab…
08-11 19:21:57	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x66b209…
08-11 19:21:57	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0x575177…
08-11 19:21:57	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	104	19¢	$20	0x4b038d…
08-11 19:21:57	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0x1f4355…
08-11 19:21:57	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	6	19¢	$1	0x17ddbe…
08-11 19:21:55	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	264	19¢	$50	0xe785d2…
08-11 19:21:55	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	104	19¢	$20	0x4cd3b7…
08-11 19:21:55	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	132	19¢	$25	0x3a3dcf…
08-11 19:21:52	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	98	19¢	$19	0xac221b…
08-11 19:21:51	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	74	19¢	$14	0xcf6935…
08-11 19:21:51	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	134	19¢	$25	0xc054f4…
08-11 19:21:51	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	22	19¢	$4	0xab494a…
08-11 19:21:51	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	7	19¢	$1	0x6eb15f…
08-11 19:21:51	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	98	19¢	$19	0x491b14…
08-11 19:21:51	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	19	19¢	$4	0x48abdf…
08-11 19:21:51	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	2	19¢	$0	0x093fb9…
08-11 19:21:40	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	2	19¢	$0	0x5c15c8…
08-11 19:21:40	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	30	19¢	$6	0x2f13a8…
08-11 19:21:28	dota2 spirit1 lvlup1 2026 08 11 game4	Spirit Academy	SELL	234	19¢	$44	0xf6c43e…