Realized P&L
+$433
Unrealized P&L
+$1.92K
Hit rate
68.4%
Resolved
803
Trades
37,266
lifetime
Volume
$231.8K
lifetime
Avg / trade
$6
Open exposure
$14.6K
30 positions
First seen
2026-08-23
last 10-29 14:54
Equity curve
cumulative realized P&L over 44 days
Categories
Politics
48% 73% +$398
Other
47% 76% +$94
Tech
4% 33% -$67
Sports
2% 92% +$8
Activity
Mon
Wed
Fri
63 active days in 12wk • peak 4180 trades/day
Market Outcome Mid 30D Net shares Cost basis Current mid Current value Unrealized P&L Last trade
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? No +4,718 $2,529 54¢ $2.5K +$19 10-29 14:54
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? No +3,656 $1,497 44¢ $1.6K +$130 10-29 15:42
Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +1,013 $880 99¢ $1.0K +$124 10-28 18:29
Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +899 $722 100¢ $899 +$177 10-28 17:49
Will exactly 1 Israeli legislative election occur before a government is formed? Yes +1,583 $698 46¢ $728 +$30 10-29 12:04
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes +810 $589 74¢ $599 +$11 10-27 12:50
Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +596 $161 100¢ $596 +$434 10-27 20:04
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? No +800 $623 69¢ $552 -$71 10-26 15:54
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day? No +642 $530 83¢ $532 +$2 10-26 13:50
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day? No +631 $457 78¢ $492 +$34 10-26 15:00
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +482 $262 100¢ $480 +$218 10-28 05:19
Will Likud win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +448 $438 100¢ $447 +$10 10-28 05:12
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? No +430 $351 100¢ $429 +$78 10-28 04:31
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day? No +389 $296 90¢ $348 +$52 10-24 01:29
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? Yes +263 $160 98¢ $260 +$100 10-29 13:26
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? No +275 $226 94¢ $259 +$33 10-27 14:49
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026? No +268 $180 95¢ $255 +$75 10-28 22:12
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day? No +257 $230 98¢ $251 +$21 10-25 18:10
Israeli election results in a hung parliament? Yes +450 $253 55¢ $250 -$3 10-29 12:01
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? No +235 $187 98¢ $232 +$45 10-27 14:49
Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia? No +267 $204 84¢ $225 +$21 10-22 14:45
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day? Yes +690 $151 31¢ $214 +$63 10-26 15:54
Will Lorne Doerkson be the next Premier of British Columbia? Yes +195 $124 96¢ $187 +$64 10-28 21:55
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? No +211 $97 88¢ $187 +$90 09-28 13:01
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8? Yes +224 $147 82¢ $183 +$36 10-29 00:40
Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Yes +708 $173 26¢ $181 +$8 10-27 12:50
Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election? Yes +249 $158 68¢ $169 +$12 10-29 16:00
Will Anthropic's market cap be $3.0T or greater at market close on IPO day? No +156 $153 99¢ $155 +$2 10-26 01:59
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026? No +155 $135 96¢ $148 +$14 10-29 11:41
Will Aleksandar Vučić be the next Prime Minister of Serbia? No +143 $47 97¢ $139 +$92 10-20 03:09