Muted-Carnation — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$935

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

96.6%

Resolved

878

Trades

45,255

lifetime

Volume

$2.01M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$45

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-10

last 07-19 15:00

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 12 days

Categories

Crypto

94% 97% $-930

Politics

3% — —

Other

2% 56% $-5

Sports

1% — —

Tech

0% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

51 active days in 12wk • peak 188 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	2	$8.0K	8,221	0	+8,221	open	—	05-31 15:43
bitcoin up or down february 28 1pm et	190	$5.4K	3,916	3,158	+758	open	—	02-28 19:44
bitcoin up or down february 28 12pm et	219	$5.3K	4,528	2,647	+1,880	open	—	02-28 18:14
bitcoin up or down february 28 8am et	180	$5.0K	4,455	2,256	+2,199	open	—	02-28 15:02
bitcoin up or down february 28 6am et	368	$4.8K	4,739	2,619	+2,121	open	—	02-28 12:00
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	6	$4.5K	3,698	3,698	+0	open	—	05-24 20:05
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by june 7 2026	3	$4.3K	2,314	2,314	+0	open	—	06-07 19:50
bitcoin up or down february 27 5pm et	241	$4.1K	2,985	2,308	+677	open	—	02-27 23:02
bitcoin up or down february 27 4pm et	351	$4.1K	3,390	2,301	+1,089	open	—	02-27 22:30
bitcoin up or down february 28 2pm et	154	$4.1K	3,288	2,048	+1,241	open	—	02-28 20:00
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?	1	$4.0K	4,120	0	+4,120	open	—	05-31 15:42
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	3	$4.0K	2,950	2,950	+0	open	—	05-25 22:38
bitcoin up or down february 28 7am et	125	$4.0K	3,599	1,895	+1,704	open	—	02-28 13:58
bitcoin up or down february 28 5am et	132	$4.0K	3,490	1,942	+1,547	open	—	02-28 12:00
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31?	6	$3.8K	2,380	2,380	+0	open	—	05-26 22:01
bitcoin up or down march 1 12am et	151	$3.8K	3,748	1,785	+1,963	open	—	03-01 06:58
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	4	$3.8K	2,180	2,180	+0	open	—	05-26 22:01
bitcoin up or down february 28 6pm et	138	$3.6K	3,059	1,774	+1,285	open	—	03-01 00:02
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	6	$3.4K	17,379	0	+17,379	open	—	05-25 23:56
bitcoin up or down february 28 4pm et	129	$3.2K	3,098	1,676	+1,422	open	—	02-28 23:12
bitcoin up or down march 1 2am et	235	$3.1K	2,749	1,522	+1,227	open	—	03-01 07:49
bitcoin up or down february 28 9am et	163	$3.1K	2,664	1,532	+1,132	open	—	02-28 15:02
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	2	$2.9K	1,500	1,500	+0	open	—	05-25 23:43
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	1	$2.8K	3,000	0	+3,000	open	—	06-01 09:49
bitcoin up or down february 28 4am et	288	$2.7K	2,718	1,288	+1,431	open	—	02-28 11:04
btc updown 5m 1772205300	25	$2.6K	5,253	0	+5,253	open	—	02-27 15:19
bitcoin up or down february 28 11pm et	109	$2.6K	2,444	1,247	+1,197	open	—	03-01 06:37
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	4	$2.5K	2,563	0	+2,563	open	—	05-31 15:48
bitcoin up or down march 1 1am et	79	$2.4K	1,833	1,271	+562	open	—	03-01 06:57
bitcoin up or down march 1 3am et	299	$2.3K	2,668	1,158	+1,511	open	—	03-01 08:51

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-19 15:00:18	eth updown 15m 1784473200	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xe5a32e…
07-19 14:45:15	eth updown 15m 1784472300	Down	BUY	19	52¢	$10	0xffd826…
07-19 14:15:15	eth updown 15m 1784470500	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x5a657a…
07-19 14:00:12	eth updown 15m 1784469600	Down	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0x9665fa…
07-19 13:15:15	eth updown 15m 1784466900	Up	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x761ed2…
07-19 12:15:16	eth updown 15m 1784463300	Up	BUY	18	57¢	$10	0x8405aa…
07-19 11:30:21	eth updown 15m 1784460600	Down	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x3c3e18…
07-19 11:15:13	eth updown 15m 1784459700	Down	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x8254ae…
07-19 11:00:16	eth updown 15m 1784458800	Down	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xcba9c2…
07-19 10:45:15	eth updown 15m 1784457900	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x60a70a…
07-19 09:45:18	eth updown 15m 1784454300	Up	BUY	17	59¢	$10	0xec5875…
07-19 08:45:15	eth updown 15m 1784450700	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x55c9ed…
07-19 07:45:21	eth updown 15m 1784447100	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x584bbe…
07-19 05:15:13	btc updown 15m 1784438100	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x962a61…
07-19 05:15:12	eth updown 15m 1784438100	Down	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x698b30…
07-19 04:45:16	eth updown 15m 1784436300	Down	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xff66db…
07-19 04:45:13	btc updown 15m 1784436300	Down	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xe64671…
07-19 04:30:12	btc updown 15m 1784435400	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xf39840…
07-19 04:00:13	btc updown 15m 1784433600	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0xa3d2ec…
07-19 04:00:10	eth updown 15m 1784433600	Down	BUY	18	54¢	$10	0x6e3a03…
07-19 03:30:12	btc updown 15m 1784431800	Up	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xa44b39…
07-19 02:45:21	btc updown 15m 1784429100	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0x9160a5…
07-19 02:15:13	btc updown 15m 1784427300	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x9996dd…
07-19 02:15:12	eth updown 15m 1784427300	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xf60b7c…
07-19 00:00:12	btc updown 15m 1784419200	Down	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0x40502b…
07-19 00:00:10	eth updown 15m 1784419200	Down	BUY	20	51¢	$10	0xc19f1a…
07-18 23:30:19	eth updown 15m 1784417400	Down	BUY	19	54¢	$10	0xc6f272…
07-18 23:30:16	btc updown 15m 1784417400	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x7f9479…
07-18 23:00:16	btc updown 15m 1784415600	Down	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x5d6218…
07-18 23:00:15	eth updown 15m 1784415600	Down	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0xdb21fd…
07-18 22:45:21	btc updown 15m 1784414700	Down	BUY	17	60¢	$10	0x3614ea…
07-18 22:15:19	btc updown 15m 1784412900	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x61a9e5…
07-18 22:15:12	eth updown 15m 1784412900	Down	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0x92b066…
07-18 22:00:21	eth updown 15m 1784412000	Down	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x220417…
07-18 22:00:18	btc updown 15m 1784412000	Down	BUY	19	53¢	$10	0x892d59…
07-18 21:15:15	btc updown 15m 1784409300	Down	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x9d0674…
07-18 21:15:12	eth updown 15m 1784409300	Down	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0xc67c18…
07-18 21:00:10	btc updown 15m 1784408400	Down	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0xce48f5…
07-18 20:30:18	btc updown 15m 1784406600	Down	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0x55ed7c…
07-18 20:00:19	btc updown 15m 1784404800	Down	BUY	109	46¢	$50	0x910d5e…
07-18 20:00:12	eth updown 15m 1784404800	Down	BUY	113	44¢	$50	0x5f316e…
07-18 19:45:16	eth updown 15m 1784403900	Down	BUY	104	48¢	$50	0x35ab30…
07-18 19:45:13	btc updown 15m 1784403900	Down	BUY	108	46¢	$50	0xd6c918…
07-18 19:15:15	btc updown 15m 1784402100	Down	BUY	152	33¢	$50	0xaaaea3…
07-18 19:15:12	eth updown 15m 1784402100	Down	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0x7afa9f…
07-18 19:00:18	eth updown 15m 1784401200	Down	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0x945b6b…
07-18 19:00:16	btc updown 15m 1784401200	Down	BUY	107	47¢	$50	0xdb54c2…
07-18 14:30:21	eth updown 15m 1784385000	Down	BUY	97	52¢	$50	0x9fd5ba…
07-18 14:15:19	btc updown 15m 1784384100	Down	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0xd44647…
07-18 14:00:19	btc updown 15m 1784383200	Down	BUY	118	42¢	$50	0x40ad33…
07-18 13:15:19	eth updown 15m 1784380500	Up	BUY	84	59¢	$50	0xafd9ea…
07-18 13:15:18	btc updown 15m 1784380500	Up	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0x355941…
07-18 13:00:16	btc updown 15m 1784379600	Down	BUY	74	68¢	$50	0xa38146…
07-18 12:45:18	btc updown 15m 1784378700	Down	BUY	90	55¢	$50	0x4610c5…
07-18 12:30:18	eth updown 15m 1784377800	Up	BUY	79	64¢	$50	0xa287a6…
07-18 12:15:18	btc updown 15m 1784376900	Down	BUY	95	52¢	$50	0x11cb84…
07-18 12:15:16	eth updown 15m 1784376900	Down	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0x3b65b9…
07-18 12:00:15	btc updown 15m 1784376000	Down	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0xf18d0c…
07-18 11:30:16	btc updown 15m 1784374200	Down	BUY	105	48¢	$50	0xfc77c3…
07-18 11:15:16	btc updown 15m 1784373300	Down	BUY	93	54¢	$50	0x13773b…
07-18 10:45:18	btc updown 15m 1784371500	Down	BUY	103	48¢	$50	0xca3507…
07-18 10:30:18	btc updown 15m 1784370600	Down	BUY	95	53¢	$50	0x58673a…
07-18 10:30:15	eth updown 15m 1784370600	Down	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0xd54526…
07-18 10:15:18	btc updown 15m 1784369700	Down	BUY	87	58¢	$50	0x41cf28…
07-18 09:45:16	btc updown 15m 1784367900	Down	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0xe7455b…
07-18 09:00:18	eth updown 15m 1784365200	Down	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0xd382c0…
07-18 08:30:24	btc updown 15m 1784363400	Down	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0xce960c…
07-18 08:30:21	eth updown 15m 1784363400	Down	BUY	109	46¢	$50	0x10ba70…
07-18 07:45:18	btc updown 15m 1784360700	Down	BUY	98	51¢	$50	0x584466…
07-18 07:15:16	btc updown 15m 1784358900	Down	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x677c3c…
07-18 06:30:18	eth updown 15m 1784356200	Down	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x5fe0c0…
07-18 06:30:16	btc updown 15m 1784356200	Down	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0x1b6ffe…
07-18 06:15:13	btc updown 15m 1784355300	Down	BUY	99	51¢	$50	0xd9413d…
07-18 05:30:15	eth updown 15m 1784352600	Down	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0x462973…
07-18 05:00:22	btc updown 15m 1784350800	Down	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x763567…
07-18 05:00:15	eth updown 15m 1784350800	Down	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x7126f6…
07-18 04:30:18	btc updown 15m 1784349000	Down	BUY	100	50¢	$50	0x775fcf…
07-18 04:30:16	eth updown 15m 1784349000	Down	BUY	84	60¢	$50	0xcd62f6…
07-18 04:15:16	btc updown 15m 1784348100	Down	BUY	80	62¢	$50	0xcb22ef…
07-18 04:00:15	eth updown 15m 1784347200	Down	BUY	89	56¢	$50	0x881577…
07-18 04:00:13	btc updown 15m 1784347200	Down	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0xe78d38…
07-18 03:45:13	btc updown 15m 1784346300	Down	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0x09355b…
07-18 03:15:22	eth updown 15m 1784344500	Down	BUY	82	61¢	$50	0x0882c9…
07-18 03:15:21	btc updown 15m 1784344500	Down	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0xf8bfed…
07-18 03:00:16	btc updown 15m 1784343600	Down	BUY	97	51¢	$50	0x982c93…
07-18 02:30:15	eth updown 15m 1784341800	Down	BUY	91	55¢	$50	0x354daa…
07-18 02:30:13	btc updown 15m 1784341800	Down	BUY	96	52¢	$50	0x57cdf9…
07-18 02:15:12	eth updown 15m 1784340900	Down	BUY	95	52¢	$50	0x140157…
07-18 02:00:19	btc updown 15m 1784340000	Down	BUY	109	46¢	$50	0x3a0be2…
07-18 02:00:16	eth updown 15m 1784340000	Down	BUY	117	43¢	$50	0x65d84b…
07-18 01:30:19	eth updown 15m 1784338200	Down	BUY	87	57¢	$50	0x98b700…
07-18 01:30:15	btc updown 15m 1784338200	Down	BUY	77	65¢	$50	0x66fc59…
07-18 00:30:18	btc updown 15m 1784334600	Down	BUY	79	63¢	$50	0x8782ee…
07-18 00:30:16	eth updown 15m 1784334600	Down	BUY	83	60¢	$50	0x894fe2…
07-18 00:15:12	eth updown 15m 1784333700	Down	BUY	95	52¢	$50	0xcf77e9…
07-17 23:45:12	eth updown 15m 1784331900	Down	BUY	94	53¢	$50	0x568d6f…
07-17 23:30:18	btc updown 15m 1784331000	Down	BUY	102	49¢	$50	0xcef079…
07-17 23:30:16	eth updown 15m 1784331000	Down	BUY	106	47¢	$50	0x10a280…
07-17 22:15:18	eth updown 15m 1784326500	Down	BUY	85	59¢	$50	0x76b17d…
07-17 22:01:07	eth updown 15m 1784325600	Down	BUY	137	37¢	$50	0x2c8a37…