Appropriate-Coyote — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$24

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

48.0%

Resolved

195

Trades

279

lifetime

Volume

$462

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$15

11 positions

First seen

2026-02-18

last 10-29 07:17

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 80 days

Categories

Other

72% 22% -$1

Politics

16% 15% -$1

Crypto

7% 21% -$16

Sports

4% 45% -$5

Tech

1% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

23 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (11) Resolved markets (28) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+9	$6	72¢	$7	+$1	10-16 07:52
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+5	$1	28¢	$1	+$0	10-29 06:57
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	+84	$1	1¢	$1	+$0	10-24 18:57
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	+3	$1	34¢	$1	+$0	09-10 12:17
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	+7	$1	16¢	$1	+$0	07-23 09:48
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	+125	$1	1¢	$1	$0	10-24 18:57
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	+67	$1	1¢	$1	$0	10-24 18:57
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	+91	$1	1¢	$1	$0	10-07 13:49
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Yes	-27	-$3	2¢	$-0	+$3	07-14 16:16
Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	No	+4	$1	12¢	$0	-$1	10-25 18:33
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	+4	$1	10¢	$0	-$1	10-25 18:33

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
us strikes iran by february 28 2026 227 967 547 688 589 491 592 418 452 924 384 915 464 672 196 157 993 596 269 535 381 391 471 256 988 997 296 225 762 973 292 827 345 182 558 215 794 879 189 761	2	$31	29	29	+0	Yes	+$21	02-28 06:39
Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?	5	$22	21	21	+0	No	+$8	07-07 17:58
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on July 21?	2	$22	121	121	+0	No	+$20	07-21 13:00
Will annual inflation be 3.6% or less in June?	2	$22	21	21	+0	Yes	+$20	07-14 13:13
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on July 21?	2	$15	37	37	+0	Yes	+$13	07-21 13:00
por spo ben 2026 04 19 ben	3	$10	9	9	+0	Yes	+$6	04-19 19:13
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	5	$10	26	0	+26	Yes	-$10	09-15 22:32
will the fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the march 2026 meeting	3	$8	127	127	+0	No	-$4	03-04 08:55
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	3	$7	18	45	-27	open	—	07-14 16:16
us strikes iran by february 20 2026 151 468 624 297 614 778 872 127 349 448 499 337 826 553	2	$7	38	38	+0	No	-$3	02-19 09:51
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?	2	$7	7	7	+0	Yes	+$5	07-15 20:56
Will England vs. DR Congo end in a draw?	3	$7	9	9	+0	No	+$3	07-01 17:39
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	2	$6	9	0	+9	open	—	10-16 07:52
will bitcoin dip to 55k in february 2026 644 513 935	2	$6	42	42	+0	No	-$4	02-28 08:32
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	2	$5	5	5	+0	Yes	+$3	06-28 01:22
will sp 500 spx hit 7100 high in february 2026	2	$5	50	0	+50	No	-$5	02-19 11:09
Will SanDisk (SNDK) beat quarterly earnings?	1	$5	28	0	+28	Yes	-$5	10-29 07:14
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	1	$5	6	0	+6	No	-$5	10-16 07:54
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?	1	$5	33	0	+33	No	-$5	02-28 08:19
spx opens up or down on february 19 2026	1	$5	24	0	+24	Down	-$5	02-19 12:17
us strikes iran by february 21 2026	1	$5	42	0	+42	No	-$5	02-19 09:52
Will FC Porto win on 2026-09-20?	3	$5	6	6	+0	Yes	+$1	09-20 20:02
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	3	$4	5	3	+2	Up	+$0	07-21 13:33
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	3	$4	17	0	+17	No	-$4	09-11 23:05
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	3	$4	6	3	+3	Down	$0	07-21 13:37
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?	2	$3	3	3	+0	Yes	+$1	07-03 01:06
Will England win on 2026-07-01?	2	$3	3	3	+0	Yes	+$1	07-01 17:50
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 21?	2	$3	11	11	+0	No	+$1	07-21 13:00
BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-07-20 13:15 UTC	2	$3	2	2	+0	Up	+$1	07-20 13:19
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$3	5	5	+0	No	+$1	07-15 21:14

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-29 07:17:01	Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xd7f189…
10-29 07:14:05	Will SanDisk (SNDK) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	28	18¢	$5	0x48743d…
10-29 06:57:02	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x239e2d…
10-28 16:11:19	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xf3c63f…
10-28 16:10:04	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x65c1ef…
10-25 18:35:14	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,200 in October?	Yes	BUY	9	11¢	$1	0x5adac2…
10-25 18:33:06	Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x9f6437…
10-25 18:33:00	Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?	No	BUY	4	28¢	$1	0x8c5937…
10-25 18:32:27	Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x933292…
10-24 18:57:59	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	125	1¢	$1	0x62a833…
10-24 18:57:45	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	84	1¢	$1	0x499a5c…
10-24 18:57:39	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the January 2027 meeting?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0xf4bf60…
10-16 07:56:28	Will Rodri win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	167	1¢	$1	0xb082a1…
10-16 07:56:18	Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	333	0¢	$1	0xa3a7bd…
10-16 07:55:55	Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0xb42864…
10-16 07:54:12	Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x554d35…
10-16 07:52:58	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x5391ed…
10-16 07:52:52	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x629b67…
10-15 13:25:20	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x38bf71…
10-15 13:22:29	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	250	0¢	$1	0x81a5a6…
10-14 08:50:32	Will annual inflation be 3.4% in September?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0xe63cc6…
10-14 08:50:08	Will annual inflation be 3.5% in September?	Yes	BUY	13	7¢	$1	0x1781c3…
10-07 13:50:43	Will Portugal win the 2026-27 UEFA Nations League?	Yes	BUY	8	12¢	$1	0xc0e4ef…
10-07 13:49:49	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0xf79aa1…
09-27 20:24:53	Will Norway vs. Portugal end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	8	25¢	$2	0x95794d…
09-20 20:55:11	Will FC Porto vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?	Yes	SELL	8	1¢	$0	0x2b630d…
09-20 20:06:49	Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xa5da83…
09-20 20:05:01	Will FC Porto vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xaf2ca7…
09-20 20:03:55	Will FC Porto vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x82347e…
09-20 20:02:53	Will FC Porto win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	SELL	6	45¢	$3	0x14f8ad…
09-20 19:44:38	Will FC Porto win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0xa89f08…
09-20 19:41:49	Will FC Porto win on 2026-09-20?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x23fc14…
09-16 07:35:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x76d2a1…
09-15 22:32:31	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x79ae28…
09-11 23:05:57	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0xf835d2…
09-11 23:03:49	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x6723a1…
09-10 12:17:43	Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0xc01356…
09-10 09:24:36	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.1% in August?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x03ac75…
09-10 09:24:24	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.2% in August?	Yes	BUY	21	5¢	$1	0x1f225f…
09-10 09:22:03	Will PPI YoY be 5.1% or more in August?	No	BUY	11	18¢	$2	0x13b48d…
09-08 21:13:52	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0x5f958f…
09-07 19:29:28	Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	89¢	$1	0x2f60ac…
09-05 07:44:42	Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x79c20d…
09-01 20:36:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x5d2f1b…
08-28 19:30:45	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	10	51¢	$5	0x2de486…
08-28 19:29:42	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x4dc8d7…
08-28 19:29:30	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	2	51¢	$1	0x964348…
08-25 20:40:31	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	23	4¢	$1	0x4d550d…
08-25 20:39:13	Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0xc05f1e…
08-25 20:34:58	will wti dip to 40 in september 2026	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x8b0af3…
08-25 20:34:49	will wti dip to 50 in september 2026	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x2f7647…
08-25 20:34:46	will wti dip to 60 in september 2026	Yes	BUY	17	6¢	$1	0x448c7e…
08-24 07:49:48	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on August 26?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0xa86394…
08-17 08:31:51	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C or below on August 19?	Yes	BUY	27	4¢	$1	0xaff7dd…
08-15 06:36:24	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0x61d436…
08-15 06:36:18	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on August 16?	Yes	BUY	217	0¢	$1	0x5a93e3…
08-07 08:20:40	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x3a51ba…
08-07 08:20:04	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	51	2¢	$1	0x992632…
08-07 08:19:49	Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on August 9?	Yes	BUY	33	3¢	$1	0xa04b38…
07-30 19:34:02	Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. FC St. Gallen end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xf4c7ae…
07-28 08:24:07	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 32°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x5c2059…
07-28 08:22:48	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 30?	Yes	BUY	25	4¢	$1	0x697227…
07-27 13:24:24	Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C or below on July 29?	Yes	BUY	174	1¢	$1	0xa29a70…
07-27 13:24:03	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	143	1¢	$1	0x48843d…
07-27 13:23:37	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	71	1¢	$1	0xd91c0f…
07-27 13:23:33	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	104	1¢	$1	0x264994…
07-27 13:23:16	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on July 29?	Yes	BUY	51	2¢	$1	0xbd7509…
07-27 08:32:16	israel x iran ceasefire continues through july 31 20260716224448968 384 155 519 798 243	No	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x7c1335…
07-27 07:50:00	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	41	2¢	$1	0xe03fb2…
07-26 18:11:51	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 33°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	80	1¢	$1	0x654eb8…
07-26 18:11:31	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	55	2¢	$1	0x2d009f…
07-26 18:11:25	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x848b45…
07-26 18:11:15	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	111	1¢	$1	0x98c32e…
07-26 18:11:10	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	140	1¢	$1	0x3b7633…
07-26 18:10:58	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on July 28?	Yes	BUY	62	2¢	$1	0x33b98d…
07-25 08:06:55	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	44	2¢	$1	0x546b5b…
07-25 08:06:48	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	50	2¢	$1	0x1e3301…
07-25 08:06:40	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xab36de…
07-25 08:06:06	Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on July 27?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0xa18f32…
07-23 09:48:37	Will Paris Saint-Germain win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0xef4248…
07-23 08:13:09	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or below on July 25?	Yes	BUY	53	2¢	$1	0x36eb01…
07-23 08:13:06	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C or below on July 25?	Yes	BUY	43	2¢	$1	0x29737a…
07-23 08:12:19	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	67	1¢	$1	0x4462fe…
07-23 08:12:01	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 25?	Yes	BUY	31	3¢	$1	0x76734b…
07-22 06:08:09	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	130	1¢	$1	0xa77371…
07-22 06:07:13	Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	91	1¢	$1	0x75faa0…
07-22 06:06:16	Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	109	1¢	$1	0x41873a…
07-22 06:05:57	Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 24?	Yes	BUY	100	1¢	$1	0x507586…
07-21 13:51:10	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on July 22?	Yes	BUY	96	1¢	$1	0x573907…
07-21 13:50:51	Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	45	2¢	$1	0x900f81…
07-21 13:49:09	Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on July 23?	Yes	BUY	24	4¢	$1	0x652b85…
07-21 13:45:55	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET	Down	BUY	3	31¢	$1	0x765dd9…
07-21 13:44:31	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	SELL	3	5¢	$0	0xa956e8…
07-21 13:41:16	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x8f7e85…
07-21 13:40:21	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Up	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0x5013e4…
07-21 13:37:46	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	SELL	3	66¢	$2	0x0f917c…
07-21 13:37:43	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Up	BUY	3	33¢	$1	0x764f4a…
07-21 13:35:19	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET	Down	BUY	3	39¢	$1	0x3d09a2…
07-21 13:33:34	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Down	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0xf29a67…
07-21 13:33:15	Bitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Up	SELL	3	78¢	$2	0x70c777…