Naive-Nerve — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$7

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

65.9%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$81

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-01-28

last 10-21 13:34

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 16 days

Categories

Other

58% 60% +$6

Politics

42% 38% +$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

10 active days in 12wk • peak 7 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (23) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Yes		+7	$3	1¢	$0	-$3	10-02 00:31

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	4	$17	10	10	+0	Yes	+$2	10-20 23:19
Will Leanne Caron win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election?	5	$16	25	7	+18	Yes	+$9	10-21 13:34
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	4	$7	34	34	+0	No	-$3	10-20 21:33
saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	1	$5	12	0	+12	No	+$7	09-14 17:33
Will Monique Taylor win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?	1	$5	7	0	+7	No	-$5	08-28 23:06
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	1	$3	7	0	+7	open	—	10-02 00:31
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	5	$3	27	27	+0	open	—	09-14 17:32
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	1	$3	5	0	+5	No	-$3	04-16 04:16
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?	2	$2	1	1	+0	No	+$0	09-22 15:10
Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	1	$2	4	0	+4	No	-$2	04-03 18:48
Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	2	$2	3	0	+3	No	+$1	02-05 01:54
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	2	$2	12	12	+0	Yes	$0	09-22 15:10
Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	2	$2	6	6	+0	No	$0	10-20 00:35
will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	3	$1	5	0	+5	No	-$1	04-19 00:30
Will "Leave" win any Alberta electoral division in the independence referendum?	1	$1	1	0	+1	Yes	+$0	10-20 21:33
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	1	$1	6	0	+6	No	-$1	04-13 00:38
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	1	$1	2	0	+2	Yes	+$1	04-05 22:33
Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?	1	$1	1	0	+1	Yes	+$0	04-05 22:32
will tatiana auguste win the by election for the seat of terrebone in the house of commons of canada	1	$1	2	0	+2	Yes	+$1	04-05 15:39
Kash Patel out by April 30?	1	$1	2	0	+2	No	-$1	04-19 01:17
will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	1	$1	1	0	+1	Yes	+$0	04-05 22:30
Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	1	$1	5	0	+5	Yes	+$4	04-03 18:49
New pandemic in 2026?	2	$1	5	5	+0	open	—	09-14 17:32
Ebola pandemic in 2026?	2	$1	5	5	+0	open	—	09-14 17:32
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	1	$0	5	0	+5	No	$0	04-14 19:00
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	1	$0	5	0	+5	No	$0	04-16 23:22
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	4	$0	10	0	+10	No	$0	04-19 08:15

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-21 13:34:09	Will Leanne Caron win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	18	51¢	$9	0xaa25f6…
10-20 23:19:56	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	SELL	10	97¢	$10	0x816ea8…
10-20 21:33:21	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	SELL	12	0¢	$0	0xa67dea…
10-20 21:33:21	Will "Leave" win any Alberta electoral division in the independence referendum?	Yes	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0x1551b3…
10-20 00:35:32	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	Yes	SELL	6	11¢	$1	0x7914db…
10-20 00:30:56	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0xb0acd9…
10-20 00:30:09	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	BUY	3	74¢	$2	0xb802b0…
10-20 00:23:57	Will Leanne Caron win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election?	Yes	SELL	7	50¢	$3	0xc6f67a…
10-19 19:05:03	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	BUY	3	80¢	$2	0x2e4c3c…
10-19 19:03:53	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	SELL	21	10¢	$2	0x03f7f5…
10-19 00:42:06	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 60–80%?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x6b4174…
10-19 00:35:09	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 20–40%?	Yes	BUY	29	14¢	$4	0x9cf99e…
10-19 00:34:45	Will "Remain" win the Alberta independence referendum by 40–60%?	Yes	BUY	4	74¢	$3	0xcf7b5b…
10-08 02:21:55	Will Leanne Caron win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	1	50¢	$0	0x9a715d…
10-06 13:06:19	Will Leanne Caron win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x986dd2…
10-02 13:41:57	Will Leanne Caron win the 2026 Guelph mayoral election?	Yes	BUY	2	52¢	$1	0x492e78…
10-02 00:31:03	Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Yes	BUY	7	46¢	$3	0xedadaf…
09-22 15:10:51	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	No	SELL	12	7¢	$1	0x6c5bd3…
09-22 15:10:31	Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 22?	No	SELL	1	83¢	$1	0xf8df4a…
09-16 20:11:57	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 22	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x527c9a…
09-16 19:54:30	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by october 31	No	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0xc9831c…
09-14 17:33:54	saudi oil pipeline east west restarts by september 30	No	BUY	12	42¢	$5	0x4c3238…
09-14 17:32:33	Ebola pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0xe1c5dd…
09-14 17:32:27	New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	5¢	$0	0xf4d851…
09-14 17:32:22	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	SELL	27	2¢	$1	0x845611…
08-28 23:06:46	Will Monique Taylor win the 2026 Hamilton East—Stoney Creek provincial by-election?	Yes	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xf85e7b…
05-17 18:32:36	Ebola pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xe65aa4…
05-17 15:03:55	New pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	11¢	$1	0x05ad93…
05-13 20:51:20	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	7¢	$0	0xb8c47b…
05-13 19:53:51	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0x9483c2…
05-11 13:19:48	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	12	8¢	$1	0x13bcb1…
05-07 18:24:08	Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0xba6b5c…
04-19 08:15:08	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	0¢	$0	0xf4d209…
04-19 08:12:32	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	0¢	$0	0xcfe1f3…
04-19 08:12:10	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	3	1¢	$0	0xb6a461…
04-19 08:08:18	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	2	1¢	$0	0xfe5df8…
04-19 01:17:26	Kash Patel out by April 30?	Yes	BUY	2	45¢	$1	0x56553d…
04-19 00:30:24	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	Yes	BUY	2	30¢	$1	0xca1b2e…
04-18 23:21:58	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x3c8d44…
04-18 23:21:58	will donald trump announce that the united states blockade of the strait of hormuz has been lifted by april 23 2026	Yes	BUY	1	30¢	$0	0x0e7951…
04-16 23:22:18	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	9¢	$0	0x5c560b…
04-16 04:16:26	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x4b5ff9…
04-14 19:00:08	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	10¢	$0	0x2d3ed8…
04-13 00:38:13	Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x308bb6…
04-05 22:33:21	Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xe91b3f…
04-05 22:32:35	Viktor Orbán out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x16ff42…
04-05 22:30:33	will tisza respect and freedom party tisza win the most seats in the next hungarian parliamentary election	Yes	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0x788f24…
04-05 15:39:15	will tatiana auguste win the by election for the seat of terrebone in the house of commons of canada	Yes	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x7baab9…
04-03 18:49:03	Will Lori Chavez-DeRemer be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xff98c4…
04-03 18:48:33	Will Tulsi Gabbard be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	BUY	4	48¢	$2	0x849df1…
02-05 01:54:05	Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x755a49…
01-28 02:04:37	Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x2e191c…