Pessimistic-Sociology — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$0

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

97.6%

Resolved

Trades

133

lifetime

Volume

$202

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-03-06

last 08-14 06:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 65 days

Categories

Crypto

53% 97% +$0

Other

47% 100% +$0

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-08-14).

Open positions Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
bitcoin above 82k on april 22	4	$7	7	0	+7	No	+$0	04-21 10:11
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	4	$6	6	0	+6	No	+$0	06-10 18:11
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on July 22?	3	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	07-21 14:03
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28?	3	$5	5	0	+5	No	+$0	05-27 18:11
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	3	$5	1	3	-2	No	$0	06-17 12:11
bitcoin above 66k on march 20	3	$5	5	0	+5	Yes	+$0	03-20 08:11
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Sweden?	3	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	06-30 11:27
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15?	3	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	05-14 12:11
bitcoin above 68k on august 7 2026	3	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	08-07 12:11
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 DR Congo?	3	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	07-01 13:27
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11?	3	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	05-10 14:11
will the price of ethereum be between 2500 2600 on april 8	3	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	04-07 12:11
bitcoin above 76k on april 6	2	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	04-06 06:11
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	07-29 16:11
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	2	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	06-28 05:20
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	2	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	08-01 06:11
Exact Score: France 0 - 3 England?	2	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	07-18 07:45
bitcoin above 66k on march 18	2	$4	4	0	+4	Yes	+$0	03-17 18:11
elon musk of tweets march 3 march 10 460 479	2	$4	4	0	+4	No	+$0	03-09 06:11
will bitcoin dip to 60k on april 3	2	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	04-03 16:11
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	2	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	07-29 12:11
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire?	2	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	06-20 14:39
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 0 Canada?	2	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	06-28 05:20
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	2	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	06-17 08:11
will bitcoin dip to 42pt5k in july 2026 821	2	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	07-27 12:11
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	2	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	07-11 15:28
will the price of ethereum be greater than 2400 on march 10	2	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	03-09 06:11
bitcoin above 80k on april 17	2	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	04-16 14:11
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	2	$3	1	1	+0	No	+$0	05-24 19:44
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 17?	2	$3	3	0	+3	No	+$0	05-16 18:11

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-14 06:11:13	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x268c96…
08-11 12:11:09	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7aa118…
08-08 18:11:19	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x2da553…
08-07 12:11:18	bitcoin above 68k on august 7 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x6fe2b1…
08-07 12:11:13	bitcoin above 68k on august 7 2026	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x924f72…
08-07 12:11:12	bitcoin above 68k on august 7 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb0101d…
08-01 06:11:21	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa60133…
08-01 06:11:17	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xf19dfc…
07-29 16:11:24	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	97¢	$2	0xe02570…
07-29 12:11:18	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3854ae…
07-29 12:11:14	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x208e44…
07-27 12:11:21	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x121bdf…
07-27 12:11:18	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x380049…
07-27 12:11:13	will bitcoin dip to 42pt5k in july 2026 821	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa9b461…
07-27 12:11:09	will bitcoin dip to 42pt5k in july 2026 821	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8de413…
07-25 12:11:10	Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x6b447e…
07-21 14:03:07	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on July 22?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x82850c…
07-21 14:03:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on July 22?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7fc94f…
07-21 14:03:01	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on July 22?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x25e866…
07-19 14:07:01	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	97¢	$2	0x80c762…
07-19 13:45:39	Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Argentina?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xb5d4ce…
07-19 13:45:39	Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Argentina?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x33fc5b…
07-18 07:45:21	Exact Score: France 0 - 3 England?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xbab983…
07-18 07:45:21	Exact Score: France 0 - 3 England?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xa52304…
07-18 06:53:25	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x7b2b87…
07-15 12:09:02	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1456bc…
07-11 15:28:13	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdac303…
07-11 15:28:08	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x9b35c6…
07-11 15:27:59	Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 England?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x622bb1…
07-10 05:27:31	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x12d625…
07-10 05:27:20	Exact Score: Spain 0 - 3 Belgium?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x97fec5…
07-07 10:11:19	Exact Score: Argentina 0 - 3 Egypt?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x993d88…
07-07 10:11:10	Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 0 Colombia?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x657337…
07-05 17:26:29	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe5293f…
07-05 17:26:20	Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 3 Norway?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc24191…
07-01 13:35:35	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x424a5f…
07-01 13:27:44	Exact Score: England 0 - 3 DR Congo?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa63acc…
07-01 13:27:40	Exact Score: England 0 - 3 DR Congo?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xdd0478…
07-01 13:27:40	Exact Score: England 0 - 3 DR Congo?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x79a394…
06-30 11:27:25	Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Sweden?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x1c9893…
06-30 11:27:20	Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Sweden?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5ae5a7…
06-30 11:27:19	Exact Score: France 0 - 3 Sweden?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x4ab9d3…
06-28 05:20:38	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xa8c3f4…
06-28 05:20:38	Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x1453a7…
06-28 05:20:29	Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 0 Canada?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc93294…
06-28 05:20:29	Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 0 Canada?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x90aa54…
06-26 18:11:20	Exact Score: Norway 3 - 0 France?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x524bae…
06-26 18:11:10	Exact Score: Senegal 0 - 3 Iraq?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x220ffd…
06-23 13:46:08	Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 3 Uzbekistan?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x9dbf47…
06-23 13:45:59	Exact Score: England 0 - 3 Ghana?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7315c7…
06-20 14:40:02	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3f19aa…
06-20 14:39:56	Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x9b0d98…
06-20 14:39:52	Exact Score: Germany 0 - 3 Côte d'Ivoire?	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf9f6b2…
06-18 14:57:35	Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 3 South Africa?	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0x2d4686…
06-17 12:11:20	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xf36683…
06-17 08:11:13	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x982e0c…
06-17 08:11:08	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc13619…
06-10 18:11:24	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc9a132…
06-10 18:11:24	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5db53e…
06-10 18:11:24	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$1	0x3b36d2…
06-10 18:11:16	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x308bc7…
06-10 18:10:34	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xc19a0f…
06-08 12:10:21	Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	No	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x18f94e…
06-07 14:10:19	ethereum above 1900 on june 8 2026	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb71e21…
06-02 17:18:25	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xab5f39…
05-27 18:11:26	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x3cbdcd…
05-27 18:11:19	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x58b779…
05-27 18:11:17	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9e65f2…
05-27 18:11:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xc64c19…
05-24 19:44:44	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x91f9ac…
05-24 06:11:25	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x563cee…
05-24 06:11:15	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 25?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xb79df6…
05-22 17:44:44	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 23?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x005bc0…
05-22 17:44:34	Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x944572…
05-20 13:25:25	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xdae2c4…
05-16 18:11:23	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x7a74a1…
05-16 18:11:16	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 17?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xf9e443…
05-16 18:11:14	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 17?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x9b0bcc…
05-15 10:11:19	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 16?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x429f60…
05-15 10:11:12	Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on May 16?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8b9601…
05-14 12:11:22	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0x0f7595…
05-14 12:11:17	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd7fd24…
05-14 12:11:10	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 15?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x0b0f96…
05-10 14:11:20	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9ec15c…
05-10 14:11:13	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x291f69…
05-10 14:11:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11?	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xe46737…
05-10 14:11:11	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11?	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x9f325c…
04-24 03:32:54	bitcoin above 84k on april 24	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x94292f…
04-21 10:11:20	bitcoin above 82k on april 22	No	BUY	1	99¢	$1	0xc2a215…
04-21 10:11:20	elon musk of tweets april 17 april 24 380 399	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x3e432d…
04-21 10:11:12	bitcoin above 82k on april 22	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xf6180c…
04-21 10:11:12	bitcoin above 82k on april 22	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x473e4c…
04-21 10:11:10	bitcoin above 82k on april 22	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0xc77825…
04-16 14:11:20	bitcoin above 80k on april 17	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x8cbde4…
04-16 14:11:10	bitcoin above 80k on april 17	No	BUY	2	99¢	$2	0x226617…
04-12 12:17:45	bitcoin above 78k on april 13	No	BUY	2	100¢	$2	0xd1b40f…
04-11 07:07:19	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 380 399	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x60a674…
04-11 07:07:13	elon musk of tweets april 7 april 14 380 399	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x96bfe3…
04-11 07:07:03	bitcoin above 78k on april 11	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0x5fe7ac…
04-10 10:11:19	bitcoin above 76k on april 10	No	BUY	1	100¢	$1	0xd9b6f5…