Squiggly-Alluvium — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$101

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

53.6%

Resolved

718

Trades

1,877

lifetime

Volume

$5.31K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-17

last 08-22 17:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 123 days

Categories

Other

73% 22% +$87

Politics

19% 72% +$8

Sports

6% 21% +$15

Crypto

1% 39% -$6

Tech

0% 33% -$3

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

1 active day in 12wk • peak 2 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
iran strike on israel by february 28	21	$156	85	90	-5	Yes	-$1	02-28 15:29
iran strike on us military by february 28	16	$142	70	75	-5	Yes	+$0	03-01 02:07
Will United States win on 2026-05-31?	3	$129	259	125	+134	Yes	-$42	05-31 20:22
will the iranian regime fall by march 31	19	$125	80	80	+0	No	+$2	03-05 20:17
elc por ips 2026 01 04 total 3pt5	2	$110	95	95	+0	Under	-$4	04-14 20:04
Will Poland win on 2026-05-31?	3	$104	122	100	+21	No	-$14	05-31 15:53
Will US Lecce win on 2026-05-24?	2	$103	68	68	+0	Yes	+$33	05-24 20:51
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?	2	$98	62	62	+0	Yes	+$25	05-20 20:29
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	6	$98	104	0	+104	No	+$6	08-06 20:27
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27?	2	$94	95	95	+0	Yes	-$1	05-25 05:52
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026?	10	$92	80	80	+0	Yes	+$31	06-24 17:23
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	14	$91	60	60	+0	Yes	+$0	06-27 14:13
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 27 to June 29, 2026?	12	$79	50	50	+0	Yes	+$9	06-29 15:23
iran strike on qatar by february 28 2026 334	17	$76	45	45	-0	Yes	+$4	02-28 20:44
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24?	2	$75	58	58	+0	Yes	+$41	05-24 18:46
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026?	19	$73	75	20	+55	Yes	+$11	06-12 15:34
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	11	$70	50	40	+10	Yes	+$4	06-19 15:42
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	15	$64	55	55	+0	No	-$10	06-23 15:09
will us or israel strike iran on march 10 2026	8	$54	30	30	+0	Yes	+$2	03-05 20:17
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026?	10	$52	35	35	+0	No	$0	06-13 14:51
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	11	$50	45	25	+20	Yes	+$5	07-06 15:27
fif can tun 2026 03 31 can	3	$50	58	58	+0	No	-$2	04-01 00:31
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	23	$49	95	95	+0	No	-$7	06-19 15:52
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 25 to June 27, 2026?	17	$49	135	135	+0	No	+$14	06-27 15:01
Will Getafe CF win on 2026-05-23?	2	$48	36	36	+0	Yes	+$25	05-23 21:10
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?	11	$47	47	32	+15	Yes	+$9	07-03 13:22
will reza pahlavi enter iran by march 31 282	7	$46	25	25	+0	No	+$1	03-03 18:53
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 2 to July 4, 2026?	6	$45	25	25	+0	Yes	+$2	07-04 07:34
will us or israel strike iran on march 2 2026	9	$44	45	0	+45	Yes	+$1	03-02 05:57
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-05-19?	2	$44	31	31	+0	Yes	+$18	05-19 21:12

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
08-22 17:40:18	epl bre tot 2026 08 22 total 3pt5	Over	SELL	12	78¢	$10	0xb807d2…
08-22 17:38:55	epl bre tot 2026 08 22 total 3pt5	Over	BUY	12	79¢	$10	0xc306a3…
08-06 20:27:47	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	7	94¢	$6	0xc5888b…
08-06 20:26:15	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	17	94¢	$16	0x8570c9…
08-06 20:26:09	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	11	94¢	$10	0xc59f82…
08-06 19:02:17	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	10	94¢	$9	0x90ebbd…
08-06 18:59:36	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	5	94¢	$5	0x6f112a…
08-06 18:59:00	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?	No	BUY	55	94¢	$52	0xa754d3…
07-11 15:23:49	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5	37¢	$2	0x1990ab…
07-11 15:23:44	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	5	44¢	$2	0x62ce6a…
07-11 15:23:28	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	SELL	8	11¢	$1	0x28e98c…
07-11 15:23:17	Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Yes	SELL	5	19¢	$1	0xb36e04…
07-11 15:22:46	will maria corina machado enter venezuela by july 31 20260626160132235	No	SELL	5	75¢	$4	0xd076b4…
07-11 15:22:37	Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	94¢	$5	0xfd8f0b…
07-11 15:22:29	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	99¢	$10	0x4d162a…
07-11 05:58:08	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x0d81b9…
07-11 05:31:08	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	1¢	$0	0x56254d…
07-11 05:29:47	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	14	6¢	$1	0x746368…
07-11 04:08:49	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	20	10¢	$2	0xfbaf37…
07-11 02:53:23	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x958d56…
07-11 00:23:04	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	32¢	$2	0xdd6599…
07-10 23:55:44	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x2f476b…
07-10 23:55:35	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0x6a5305…
07-10 23:48:16	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x14f839…
07-10 23:45:40	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x23f34e…
07-10 23:41:46	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0x96f161…
07-10 23:40:08	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	38¢	$2	0xb2f227…
07-10 23:22:17	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 9 to July 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	50¢	$2	0x7113c6…
07-10 15:10:34	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	83	1¢	$1	0xfed11f…
07-10 07:48:07	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	25	8¢	$2	0x100e3d…
07-10 07:47:37	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	13¢	$1	0x0d242e…
07-10 07:40:25	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x7d4f11…
07-10 07:39:20	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	14¢	$1	0xca1bfe…
07-10 07:39:01	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0x438b39…
07-09 15:34:16	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	7¢	$1	0xb894a0…
07-09 15:30:56	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	49¢	$2	0xcd5033…
07-09 09:09:10	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	38¢	$2	0x57bdf4…
07-09 08:58:47	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	8¢	$1	0x78d385…
07-09 08:35:46	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	SELL	13	15¢	$2	0x7d69e0…
07-09 08:02:55	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	20¢	$1	0x7b2093…
07-09 08:02:32	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0x79d149…
07-09 07:55:25	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	19¢	$0	0x418abb…
07-09 07:55:20	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x4f1cb6…
07-09 07:54:59	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	19¢	$1	0x2509b4…
07-09 07:27:52	Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	33¢	$2	0x517f42…
07-08 15:52:50	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	1¢	$0	0xf08cde…
07-08 15:27:26	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	17¢	$1	0x3ad859…
07-08 15:15:14	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	81¢	$4	0xccdd16…
07-08 15:13:37	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xe65d5e…
07-08 15:10:05	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0xb9f687…
07-08 15:09:53	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	79¢	$4	0x547cb6…
07-08 15:06:43	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x9046e3…
07-08 08:27:50	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	49¢	$2	0x6e5ee9…
07-08 06:37:59	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x23febc…
07-08 06:29:49	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x8ab7ea…
07-08 06:27:10	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	27¢	$1	0x1a98dd…
07-08 06:26:53	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	25¢	$1	0xf4d8f8…
07-08 06:24:41	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	24¢	$1	0x0c9307…
07-08 06:24:34	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	23¢	$1	0xd8b4c4…
07-08 06:12:37	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	41¢	$2	0x231c42…
07-08 05:58:26	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	47¢	$2	0x10ec7b…
07-08 05:54:17	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	SELL	5	33¢	$2	0xf0f62d…
07-08 00:01:50	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 6 to July 8, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x96d41a…
07-07 18:01:26	Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x872861…
07-07 16:43:53	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	5	51¢	$3	0x4b4fc5…
07-07 15:48:08	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x291e68…
07-07 15:47:43	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0xf11c9e…
07-07 15:47:38	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	16¢	$1	0x0a0a2a…
07-07 15:47:05	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xd66c77…
07-07 15:47:01	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	59¢	$3	0x0125af…
07-07 15:46:38	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	11	9¢	$1	0xfee661…
07-07 15:46:25	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	90¢	$5	0x97fd85…
07-07 15:38:49	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	43	1¢	$0	0x647ef7…
07-07 15:32:23	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	30	2¢	$1	0x748b20…
07-07 15:32:19	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	13	2¢	$0	0x07c1d5…
07-07 15:05:07	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$4	0xe74013…
07-07 14:23:50	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	SELL	7	14¢	$1	0x386a8f…
07-07 14:10:53	Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	15¢	$1	0x408b6c…
07-07 06:43:53	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	65¢	$3	0xeb04b6…
07-07 06:39:08	Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	61¢	$3	0x9ccf96…
07-06 15:29:04	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	11¢	$2	0xee0ef5…
07-06 15:27:02	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0x835670…
07-06 15:22:55	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x8242ad…
07-06 15:19:55	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	36¢	$2	0x172fd2…
07-06 13:28:35	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	71¢	$4	0x5fe248…
07-06 13:27:17	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x59114e…
07-06 04:47:23	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	29¢	$1	0x12af76…
07-06 01:43:17	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	15	75¢	$11	0xa8f937…
07-06 01:36:23	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	6	18¢	$1	0x3b0e95…
07-06 00:39:52	Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	8	13¢	$1	0xc6af61…
07-06 00:38:29	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	82¢	$4	0xfb8d81…
07-05 19:43:05	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	76¢	$4	0x7cbd86…
07-05 17:14:50	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	31¢	$2	0xc0f920…
07-05 10:43:14	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	57¢	$3	0x318833…
07-05 10:37:04	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	36¢	$6	0xebd55b…
07-05 10:29:13	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	20	5¢	$1	0x9b8cd1…
07-05 10:21:52	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0x47e157…
07-05 09:07:26	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	89¢	$5	0x507903…
07-05 08:53:28	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	9	10¢	$1	0x03d174…
07-05 08:19:22	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 4 to July 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	7	13¢	$1	0xca10c2…