Even-Culvert — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$337

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

62.7%

Resolved

104

Trades

490

lifetime

Volume

$7.98K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$16

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-01-12

last 10-02 23:40

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 69 days

Categories

Crypto

53% 52% -$70

Other

33% 32% -$86

Tech

7% 0% -$1

Sports

4% 20% -$92

Politics

3% 0% -$89

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions Resolved markets (24) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?	9	$437	220	220	+0	No	+$2	04-30 14:52
will the price of ethereum be between 1700 1800 on february 27	5	$398	200	200	+0	No	+$0	02-27 16:42
Sentient FDV above $2B one day after launch?	2	$395	200	200	+0	No	+$0	01-22 14:36
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	5	$339	170	170	+0	No	+$1	05-28 01:51
Will Deep Fission's market cap be between $1.5B and $1.75B at market close on IPO day?	19	$326	384	384	+0	No	-$3	06-04 16:00
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	6	$325	980	980	+0	open	—	08-24 16:00
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	8	$311	511	511	+0	open	—	07-19 22:11
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?	9	$237	250	198	+52	No	+$30	03-22 16:20
bitcoin above 70k on february 19	1	$200	200	0	+200	No	+$0	02-19 15:07
will ethereum reach 6000 in january 2026	2	$200	100	100	+0	No	+$0	01-22 11:10
will ethereum reach 3200 in february 2026	1	$199	200	0	+200	No	+$1	02-23 18:12
solana above 90 on february 19	2	$199	100	100	+0	No	+$1	02-19 15:34
Fogo FDV above $1B one day after launch?	2	$194	100	100	+0	No	+$6	01-16 07:58
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	11	$187	412	412	-0	open	—	07-11 17:35
donald trump of truth social posts march 17 march 24 80 99	11	$148	138	138	+0	Yes	-$9	03-23 14:16
nba por cha 2026 02 28	2	$140	200	0	+200	Hornets	+$60	02-27 23:27
Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027?	10	$137	139	139	+0	open	—	06-23 22:04
will bitcoin reach 100k in january 2026	6	$131	100	100	+0	No	-$13	01-13 21:47
Will Opinion launch a token by March 31, 2026?	3	$128	70	70	+0	Yes	+$6	02-05 02:36
lal gir bar 2026 02 16 draw	1	$128	150	0	+150	No	+$22	02-16 18:26
will ethereum dip to 2200 january 26 1	13	$126	94	214	-120	Yes	-$38	02-02 03:21
hyperbeat fdv above 10m one day after launch	7	$115	160	150	+10	open	—	06-22 12:06
Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027?	34	$112	323	323	+0	Yes	-$10	10-02 23:40
Will Hurupay launch a token by September 30, 2026?	8	$112	170	79	+91	No	-$22	06-22 12:01
Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	6	$108	400	400	+0	open	—	07-27 00:49
ethereum above 2100 on march 6	17	$106	182	30	+152	No	+$1	03-05 21:27
ETHGAS FDV above $1B one day after launch?	3	$88	44	44	+0	No	+$0	01-22 16:15
nba cle cha 2026 02 20	1	$84	200	0	+200	Cavaliers	-$84	02-21 00:19
will russia strike on kyiv municipality on january 24 878	13	$80	174	55	+120	Yes	+$24	01-23 22:23
Will Innio's market cap be between $23B and $26B at market close on IPO day?	2	$80	50	50	+0	Yes	$0	05-31 21:19

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-02 23:40:11	Will Cambria launch a token by December 31, 2027?	No	SELL	56	6¢	$3	0x6239b2…
09-13 11:06:39	Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	39	4¢	$1	0xf85755…
09-13 11:06:39	Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	10	4¢	$0	0xdb2269…
09-12 16:18:03	Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0xc62658…
09-12 06:19:33	Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0xf951c6…
09-12 06:19:33	Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	20	4¢	$1	0x960f41…
09-12 05:00:03	Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	6	4¢	$0	0x0be6ce…
08-24 16:00:55	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	231	15¢	$35	0xb581fb…
08-24 14:51:25	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	2	15¢	$0	0xc263da…
08-24 04:40:46	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	48	15¢	$7	0x6632d8…
08-23 23:25:21	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	499	15¢	$75	0x69c1e4…
08-23 23:24:24	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	200	16¢	$32	0x3d60a2…
08-23 23:22:24	Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?	No	BUY	980	18¢	$176	0x32eb82…
08-20 17:37:04	Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	60	6¢	$4	0x517399…
08-20 16:08:54	Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	20	6¢	$1	0x504b8c…
08-20 15:16:22	Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	100	23¢	$23	0xc414f3…
08-20 10:10:34	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 10:10 UTC	Up	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0x3223aa…
08-20 10:07:42	BTC Up/Down 5m · 2026-08-20 10:10 UTC	Up	BUY	10	50¢	$5	0x56f6b1…
07-27 00:49:39	Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	SELL	191	13¢	$25	0x0f0d7c…
07-26 23:23:27	Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	SELL	132	13¢	$17	0x602da0…
07-26 23:03:36	Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	SELL	8	13¢	$1	0x029b1c…
07-26 22:53:33	Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	SELL	69	13¢	$9	0xaa7ac8…
07-19 22:11:34	Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	No	SELL	200	24¢	$48	0xd9e81f…
07-19 21:29:39	Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	No	BUY	164	25¢	$41	0xf7f8a7…
07-19 21:20:36	Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	No	BUY	36	25¢	$9	0x28f44d…
07-19 19:57:03	Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	BUY	315	14¢	$44	0x7afe29…
07-19 19:56:45	Will Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	Yes	BUY	85	14¢	$12	0x6a21cc…
07-13 09:08:13	Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	No	SELL	227	32¢	$73	0x00afdd…
07-13 09:07:05	Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	No	SELL	73	33¢	$24	0xc6dc93…
07-13 06:40:56	Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	No	BUY	300	36¢	$108	0x52c663…
07-12 15:00:41	Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	5	8¢	$0	0xd64262…
07-12 00:31:26	Will Corbin Carroll hit the most triples in the 2026 MLB regular season?	No	BUY	1	16¢	$0	0xacaa10…
07-11 21:41:28	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	SELL	15	44¢	$7	0x6253f0…
07-11 21:35:20	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	30	19¢	$6	0x56beb5…
07-11 17:35:49	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	45	21¢	$9	0x3ed763…
07-11 15:21:47	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	1	21¢	$0	0xb678fc…
07-11 14:02:01	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	46	19¢	$9	0xcd9f34…
07-08 13:28:34	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	292	23¢	$67	0xf077ea…
07-08 03:37:29	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	21	23¢	$5	0xdfbafd…
07-06 16:41:43	Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	10	22¢	$2	0xf99350…
07-05 02:56:13	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	48	23¢	$11	0x3abcd9…
07-05 02:52:11	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	SELL	5	23¢	$1	0xa4b4d9…
07-05 01:10:53	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	21	23¢	$5	0x288596…
07-05 00:42:23	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	195	23¢	$45	0x7c60ec…
07-05 00:30:47	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	20	23¢	$5	0xfbdd26…
07-05 00:16:10	OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Yes	BUY	130	23¢	$30	0x4a9e22…
07-04 16:06:13	Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	No	SELL	11	37¢	$4	0x8b3f97…
07-02 18:08:19	over 50m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	40	15¢	$6	0x427ab8…
07-02 14:23:28	over 50m committed to the laso finance public sale	Yes	BUY	100	18¢	$18	0x46b06f…
07-02 14:05:46	over 35m committed to the laso finance public sale 555 417	Yes	BUY	50	45¢	$22	0xb4bb0e…
07-01 23:59:20	Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	No	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0xeaf73b…
06-30 21:49:40	Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $16B and $19B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	75	14¢	$11	0xa49cc6…
06-30 21:48:43	Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $16B and $19B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	SELL	25	32¢	$8	0x0dc0e0…
06-30 21:47:16	Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $16B and $19B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	BUY	100	42¢	$42	0x1ac9e6…
06-30 18:29:32	Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	50	24¢	$12	0x623cbf…
06-29 16:57:50	Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	7	18¢	$1	0xbd514f…
06-29 16:57:47	Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	BUY	93	18¢	$17	0xd49fb9…
06-25 13:38:59	saturn fdv above 200m one day after launch 20260623191424369	No	SELL	20	38¢	$8	0x800e48…
06-25 06:50:20	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0xcf0a6b…
06-25 06:50:05	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0xfcd5ce…
06-25 06:50:05	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x13b26e…
06-25 06:49:34	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x1e9e28…
06-25 06:49:32	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x2ecd8f…
06-25 06:49:08	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0xcac7e2…
06-25 06:49:02	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x25afa3…
06-25 06:48:53	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x968d21…
06-25 06:48:50	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0xd49392…
06-25 06:36:20	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x052b6f…
06-25 03:13:07	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0xdfa777…
06-25 03:12:59	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x12bb2d…
06-25 03:12:52	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0xc5d4f4…
06-25 03:12:50	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x68ceea…
06-25 03:12:46	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0xed46a3…
06-25 03:12:46	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0xe0dca4…
06-25 03:12:38	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x162af5…
06-25 03:12:37	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x84db11…
06-25 03:12:31	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0xbdb453…
06-25 03:12:28	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0x4c7e6f…
06-24 18:45:16	saturn fdv above 200m one day after launch 20260623191424369	No	BUY	20	39¢	$8	0x5695f5…
06-24 15:01:56	Arc FDV above $1B one day after launch?	No	BUY	1	25¢	$0	0x8ee63f…
06-24 13:50:20	will ng reach 3 40 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	13	33¢	$4	0xd79b24…
06-24 13:07:50	will ng reach 3 40 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	50	33¢	$16	0x7944ad…
06-24 13:06:29	will ng reach 3 40 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	37	33¢	$12	0xd34c95…
06-24 13:03:10	will ng reach 3 40 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	100	34¢	$34	0x7ea6c0…
06-24 12:19:08	will symbiotic launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	20	32¢	$6	0xfd322f…
06-24 08:53:43	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	100	6¢	$6	0xd46826…
06-23 22:04:28	Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	72	33¢	$24	0x87dd43…
06-23 20:30:47	Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027?	No	SELL	17	34¢	$6	0x68852c…
06-23 16:59:31	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	SELL	35	27¢	$9	0x941bc8…
06-23 12:10:40	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	Yes	SELL	150	4¢	$5	0x65e0b8…
06-23 08:51:35	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	50	4¢	$2	0xb0788f…
06-23 07:36:49	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	21	6¢	$1	0xc349d5…
06-23 07:05:38	will cambria launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	1	6¢	$0	0xe8450a…
06-23 06:46:52	will ng dip to 2 80 in june 2026	Yes	BUY	100	4¢	$4	0x1f95dc…
06-23 01:48:04	will anthropic ipo by december 31 2026 546 128	No	BUY	35	27¢	$9	0x11eb71…
06-22 23:05:14	will loopscale launch a token by december 31 2027	No	SELL	12	43¢	$5	0x226ee5…
06-22 14:36:43	will loopscale launch a token by december 31 2027	No	BUY	12	43¢	$5	0xdabfb0…
06-22 12:06:31	hyperbeat fdv above 10m one day after launch	Yes	SELL	30	49¢	$15	0xc672f2…
06-22 12:01:38	will hurupay launch a token by september 30 2026	Yes	SELL	9	19¢	$2	0x5c9279…
06-22 09:13:53	Will Puffpaw launch a token by March 31, 2027?	No	BUY	21	33¢	$7	0xe7ca60…