Favorable-Message — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$683

Unrealized P&L

—

Hit rate

8.2%

Resolved

Trades

203

lifetime

Volume

$184.2K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$907

Open exposure

—

0 positions

First seen

2026-02-06

last 07-14 20:47

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 50 days

Categories

Sports

52% 16% -$126

Politics

24% 100% +$13

Other

22% 64% +$821

Crypto

2% 78% -$26

Activity

No trades in the last 84 days (last trade 2026-07-14).

Open positions Resolved markets (21) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
No open positions — every traded market has either resolved or fully unwound.

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals?	12	$16.8K	8,442	8,442	+0	No	-$8	03-06 06:10
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?	4	$6.7K	3,350	3,350	+0	open	—	05-05 11:00
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	4	$6.5K	3,278	3,278	+0	No	-$3	06-13 07:07
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	4	$6.5K	3,255	3,255	+0	No	-$3	06-13 17:44
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals?	7	$5.5K	2,755	2,755	+0	No	-$1	04-09 08:06
will the secret agent win best picture at the 98th academy awards 938	4	$5.3K	2,677	2,677	+0	No	-$3	03-06 09:40
will bugonia win best picture at the 98th academy awards	4	$5.2K	2,605	2,605	+0	No	-$3	03-01 09:30
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	6	$4.6K	2,311	2,311	+0	No	-$2	06-28 09:22
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	3	$4.3K	2,594	1,687	+908	No	+$0	06-16 05:30
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	2	$3.5K	1,760	1,760	+0	open	—	05-08 05:18
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	4	$3.5K	1,742	1,742	+0	open	—	06-27 11:22
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?	2	$3.4K	1,731	1,731	+0	open	—	05-08 10:27
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$3.4K	1,713	1,712	+0	open	—	05-07 07:22
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	2	$3.4K	1,706	1,706	+0	open	—	05-07 09:27
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$3.4K	1,697	1,697	+0	No	-$2	05-06 06:23
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$3.4K	1,699	1,699	+0	No	-$2	04-14 05:45
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	2	$3.4K	1,687	1,687	+0	No	-$2	04-18 05:19
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$3.4K	1,690	1,690	+0	No	-$2	05-08 07:47
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$3.3K	1,657	1,657	+0	No	-$2	05-07 11:36
bitcoin above 78k on february 9	3	$3.3K	1,656	1,656	+0	No	-$12	02-09 01:52
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$3.3K	1,645	1,645	+0	open	—	05-06 09:09
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	2	$3.2K	1,623	1,623	+0	No	-$2	05-02 04:22
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026?	2	$3.2K	1,590	1,590	+0	No	-$2	04-14 08:32
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	2	$3.0K	1,500	1,500	+0	No	-$2	06-03 13:01
will f1 win best picture at the 98th academy awards 948	2	$2.9K	1,476	1,476	+0	No	-$1	02-28 09:47
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	2	$2.9K	1,468	1,468	+0	No	-$1	06-12 16:54
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$2.9K	1,453	1,453	+0	No	-$1	06-13 03:41
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	2	$2.9K	1,446	1,446	+0	open	—	06-03 07:22
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	2	$2.7K	1,378	1,378	+0	No	-$1	06-02 13:28
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	2	$2.7K	1,353	1,353	+0	open	—	06-07 08:45

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
07-14 20:47:16	Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	366	100¢	$365	0x1dfcf0…
07-14 17:17:55	Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	366	100¢	$365	0xbede54…
07-10 18:53:34	Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	332	99¢	$330	0xeef29f…
07-10 13:58:32	Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	332	99¢	$330	0x4bce8b…
07-09 11:30:46	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	323	99¢	$320	0xccbcef…
07-09 07:07:04	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	323	99¢	$321	0xf7c04a…
07-08 05:57:38	Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	371	99¢	$369	0xc93562…
07-08 04:16:08	Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	371	99¢	$369	0x3de5c6…
07-07 05:01:31	Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	170	99¢	$169	0x884d2c…
07-07 02:30:40	Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	170	99¢	$169	0x925b79…
07-06 07:24:53	Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	183	99¢	$182	0xc0c441…
07-06 05:18:10	Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	183	99¢	$182	0x05f3a7…
07-03 12:34:01	Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	169	99¢	$168	0xbd77e9…
07-03 10:23:26	Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	169	99¢	$168	0x47e62b…
07-02 13:42:11	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	252	99¢	$250	0x127072…
07-02 03:12:14	Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	252	99¢	$251	0x4671e7…
06-28 09:22:25	Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	463	100¢	$462	0xbfa137…
06-28 06:10:43	Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	463	100¢	$462	0x32d068…
06-28 06:00:44	Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	369	99¢	$366	0xff7fa6…
06-28 01:37:52	Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	369	99¢	$367	0x8a45d8…
06-27 11:22:47	Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	596	99¢	$591	0xb469cd…
06-27 07:37:41	Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	596	99¢	$591	0xf45228…
06-27 05:32:10	Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series?	No	SELL	456	99¢	$453	0x0eae6d…
06-27 03:18:37	Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series?	No	BUY	456	99¢	$453	0x96b7fb…
06-19 09:30:23	Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	264	99¢	$262	0x2406af…
06-19 08:39:43	Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	264	99¢	$262	0xbb726d…
06-19 04:49:38	Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	537	99¢	$533	0x4f822e…
06-19 02:43:23	Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	537	99¢	$534	0x531ecd…
06-18 09:17:35	Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,026	99¢	$1,018	0x99a076…
06-18 06:41:11	Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,026	99¢	$1,019	0x0012f3…
06-18 05:44:05	Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	795	100¢	$793	0x851f74…
06-18 03:06:08	Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	795	100¢	$794	0x38df8c…
06-16 05:30:00	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	908	100¢	$906	0x54c992…
06-14 14:09:36	Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	1,052	100¢	$1,049	0x17f054…
06-14 05:13:40	Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	1,052	100¢	$1,050	0x1ef4cf…
06-13 17:44:45	Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	SELL	1,563	100¢	$1,555	0x94472b…
06-13 08:06:33	Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	BUY	1,563	100¢	$1,556	0x9abcbc…
06-13 07:07:33	Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	1,578	100¢	$1,573	0xcff629…
06-13 05:32:58	Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	1,578	100¢	$1,575	0x179d82…
06-13 03:41:21	Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1,453	100¢	$1,449	0x29f771…
06-13 02:03:55	Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1,453	100¢	$1,450	0xa2003f…
06-12 16:54:48	Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	1,468	100¢	$1,464	0x042bc8…
06-12 09:16:34	Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	1,468	100¢	$1,465	0x338cef…
06-07 08:45:42	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,353	99¢	$1,341	0x0ea5fa…
06-07 05:50:09	Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,353	99¢	$1,343	0x7825ae…
06-06 07:59:34	Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1,085	99¢	$1,078	0x145fd7…
06-06 06:29:54	Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1,085	100¢	$1,079	0x2d0f19…
06-03 13:01:58	Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	1,500	100¢	$1,494	0x319deb…
06-03 10:06:53	Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	1,500	100¢	$1,496	0x82e115…
06-03 09:20:29	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	SELL	1,111	100¢	$1,107	0x60cc3f…
06-03 07:32:39	Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	No	BUY	1,111	100¢	$1,108	0x18810d…
06-03 07:22:35	Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	1,446	99¢	$1,436	0x066bed…
06-03 03:35:56	Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	1,446	99¢	$1,437	0xea1061…
06-02 13:28:16	Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1,378	100¢	$1,374	0x6745fe…
06-02 09:19:30	Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1,378	100¢	$1,375	0x485653…
05-31 06:52:16	Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	SELL	825	100¢	$823	0xb6bcd4…
05-31 05:27:20	Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026?	No	BUY	825	100¢	$824	0x3523be…
05-29 09:07:57	Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	561	99¢	$557	0xbd402c…
05-29 07:33:07	Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	561	99¢	$557	0x2091e6…
05-29 07:27:03	Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	788	100¢	$785	0x10a0cb…
05-29 05:14:23	Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	788	100¢	$786	0x0b20ee…
05-29 04:03:51	Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	742	100¢	$739	0xafb66f…
05-29 02:15:14	Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	742	100¢	$740	0x377726…
05-27 07:48:33	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	SELL	622	99¢	$617	0x4dd558…
05-27 06:07:57	Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	No	BUY	622	99¢	$617	0x0910e7…
05-26 14:15:14	Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?	No	BUY	553	99¢	$550	0x60f2bf…
05-24 09:33:06	Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	1,250	99¢	$1,241	0x250e40…
05-24 07:43:25	Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	1,250	99¢	$1,242	0xbfdf1e…
05-24 07:37:26	Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	1,076	100¢	$1,072	0xf01baa…
05-24 06:29:02	Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	1,076	100¢	$1,073	0x180873…
05-24 02:36:43	Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	1,018	100¢	$1,015	0x23e645…
05-24 01:35:37	Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	1,018	100¢	$1,016	0x56118d…
05-23 09:43:53	Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	1,045	99¢	$1,036	0xf9518e…
05-23 08:19:56	Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	1,045	99¢	$1,037	0xafabdc…
05-23 00:45:19	Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May?	No	BUY	766	100¢	$763	0x136f7f…
05-11 03:09:49	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1,687	100¢	$1,678	0x4c7edb…
05-11 01:33:06	Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1,687	100¢	$1,680	0xd9ca3c…
05-09 07:01:45	Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	SELL	1,700	100¢	$1,695	0xb0eac4…
05-09 05:46:45	Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	BUY	1,700	100¢	$1,697	0xa51a73…
05-09 03:17:55	Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	SELL	1,692	99¢	$1,682	0x17b9f6…
05-09 02:00:48	Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?	No	BUY	1,692	99¢	$1,684	0xc79179…
05-08 10:27:04	Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	SELL	1,731	100¢	$1,724	0x992ecf…
05-08 08:26:35	Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?	No	BUY	1,731	100¢	$1,726	0xf43701…
05-08 07:47:53	Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1,690	99¢	$1,678	0x58a7bc…
05-08 06:32:31	Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1,690	99¢	$1,679	0xa0b7d2…
05-08 05:18:43	Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	SELL	1,760	100¢	$1,755	0xaeca2a…
05-08 03:53:02	Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	No	BUY	1,760	100¢	$1,756	0xf23257…
05-07 11:36:39	Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	SELL	1,657	100¢	$1,652	0x6b26ab…
05-07 09:50:59	Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	BUY	1,657	100¢	$1,653	0x195721…
05-07 09:27:32	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	1,706	99¢	$1,696	0xf441b3…
05-07 08:32:47	Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	1,706	100¢	$1,697	0xc87a5d…
05-07 07:22:07	Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	1,712	99¢	$1,699	0xe9f04b…
05-07 06:45:18	Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	1,713	99¢	$1,701	0xb901d5…
05-06 09:09:28	Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	SELL	1,645	99¢	$1,634	0xfe1088…
05-06 07:40:38	Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	No	BUY	1,645	99¢	$1,635	0x1f144b…
05-06 06:23:18	Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?	No	SELL	1,697	100¢	$1,692	0xf7e941…
05-06 03:37:10	Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026?	No	BUY	1,697	100¢	$1,694	0x2aafae…
05-05 11:00:04	Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	1,696	99¢	$1,686	0xa16e5b…
05-05 06:59:38	Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	BUY	1,696	100¢	$1,687	0x581781…
05-02 09:12:36	Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election?	No	SELL	1,654	99¢	$1,646	0x9a8d57…