Obedient-Extinction — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$29

Unrealized P&L

+$2

Hit rate

77.5%

Resolved

283

Trades

326

lifetime

Volume

$2.82K

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

$22

3 positions

First seen

2026-01-01

last 10-24 11:59

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 133 days

Categories

Other

56% 60% -$29

Politics

34% 62% +$9

Sports

8% 56% -$34

Tech

2% 100% +$22

Crypto

1% 56% +$4

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

27 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (3) Resolved markets (29) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes	+11	$10	96¢	$11	+$1	07-22 01:05
NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	+6	$5	99¢	$6	+$1	09-23 00:55
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	+8	$5	68¢	$5	+$0	09-23 00:56

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	4	$321	340	13	+327	Yes	+$6	05-12 07:35
Will Trump visit China by June 30?	3	$219	125	125	+0	Yes	+$9	05-04 16:12
will trump visit china by march 31	2	$115	130	0	+130	No	+$15	03-24 01:38
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	1	$100	101	0	+101	Yes	+$1	06-13 02:22
will gold gc settle at 4750 in march	1	$100	104	0	+104	Yes	+$4	03-30 06:27
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?	1	$50	54	0	+54	No	-$50	06-15 07:05
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17?	1	$50	54	0	+54	No	+$4	06-17 15:54
will t lm be the next president of vietnam	4	$43	59	21	+38	Yes	-$5	02-25 04:51
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,600 in June?	2	$41	26	26	+0	No	+$1	06-15 15:16
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April?	2	$40	51	50	+1	Yes	+$0	04-22 16:05
will silver si hit low 55 by end of february 998 393 222 319 616 673 571 163	1	$40	45	0	+45	No	+$5	02-01 08:52
Will Trump visit China by April 30?	1	$40	42	0	+42	No	+$2	03-26 10:58
will xagusd reach 68 in july 2026	1	$30	35	0	+35	No	+$5	07-08 16:56
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	3	$27	69	50	+19	Yes	+$15	01-06 15:35
nba sas gsw 2026 02 11	2	$24	21	21	+0	Spurs	+$0	02-12 04:34
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	4	$23	32	11	+21	No	-$11	08-30 13:03
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	2	$21	16	16	+0	open	—	09-15 00:58
Will Trump nominate Rick Rieder as the next Fed chair?	2	$20	39	39	+0	No	-$20	01-30 15:21
will xauusd reach 4700 in june 2026	1	$20	33	0	+33	No	+$13	06-05 01:49
nba hou det 2026 01 23	1	$20	39	0	+39	Rockets	+$19	01-24 00:47
highest temperature in shanghai on april 23 2026 15c	1	$20	37	0	+37	No	-$20	04-23 04:15
highest temperature in shanghai on april 24 2026 21c	1	$20	47	0	+47	No	-$20	04-24 04:46
will xauusd reach 4300 in july 2026	1	$20	24	0	+24	No	+$4	07-15 16:18
will there be another us government shutdown by january 31	1	$20	26	0	+26	Yes	+$6	01-25 07:47
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in April?	1	$20	23	0	+23	No	+$3	04-06 05:57
nba lac det 2026 01 10	1	$20	26	0	+26	Clippers	-$20	01-11 01:55
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13?	1	$20	24	0	+24	No	+$4	06-14 00:45
Spurs vs. Thunder	1	$20	23	0	+23	Spurs	+$3	05-31 02:25
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$20	22	0	+22	No	+$2	05-26 01:49
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April?	1	$20	22	0	+22	No	+$2	04-22 16:09

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
10-24 11:59:18	Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-10-24?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xdb7600…
10-24 11:56:35	Arsenal FC vs. Everton FC: O/U 2.5	Over	BUY	5	55¢	$3	0x8f8dd5…
10-21 14:53:59	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-10-21?	Yes	BUY	6	32¢	$2	0xb99df7…
10-16 16:51:43	xauusd up or down on october 16 2026	Up	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x1ebdbb…
10-11 15:24:18	Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0x607bae…
10-07 14:39:52	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,400 in October?	No	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0xfcf0bb…
09-30 12:21:38	Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in August?	Yes	BUY	7	70¢	$5	0x1439c1…
09-23 00:56:47	Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x278d13…
09-23 00:55:11	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x93bbca…
09-22 01:09:10	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,200 in September?	No	BUY	5	74¢	$4	0x4f2456…
09-19 16:48:54	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-09-19?	Yes	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x4601dc…
09-19 11:06:33	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-09-19?	Yes	BUY	6	52¢	$3	0xe8efcd…
09-19 11:05:50	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-19?	No	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0x54df5e…
09-17 02:13:07	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	18	55¢	$10	0x95ba97…
09-16 04:58:25	Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during September Press Conference?	No	BUY	14	72¢	$10	0x77e658…
09-16 04:57:51	Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during September Press Conference?	Yes	BUY	14	7¢	$1	0xa1a806…
09-16 04:54:13	will wti reach 120 in september 2026	No	BUY	12	86¢	$10	0xbeb6bf…
09-15 01:01:34	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	No	BUY	13	78¢	$10	0x4d8c2e…
09-15 00:58:27	Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	No	SELL	16	71¢	$11	0xfe1860…
09-15 00:58:10	Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during September Press Conference?	No	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0xdf7d0d…
09-13 13:31:45	Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-13?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x00f471…
09-13 13:31:36	Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-09-13?	Yes	BUY	6	47¢	$3	0x6f436f…
09-09 15:25:33	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-09?	Yes	BUY	7	60¢	$4	0x662148…
09-09 15:24:28	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $74 in September?	No	BUY	12	64¢	$8	0x14efc7…
09-07 16:06:03	US Open WTA: Iga Swiatek vs Qinwen Zheng	Iga Swiatek	BUY	3	96¢	$3	0xf18fe0…
09-06 14:33:19	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-09-06?	Yes	BUY	7	57¢	$4	0xff33d2…
09-04 15:47:19	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,700 in September?	No	BUY	6	64¢	$4	0xb3ba46…
09-04 15:44:54	Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	BUY	5	43¢	$2	0x1bbcb1…
08-31 16:43:01	Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-08-31?	No	BUY	8	37¢	$3	0x2c0bd9…
08-30 15:11:04	Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-08-30?	No	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x8fbfb2…
08-30 13:04:25	Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-08-30?	Yes	BUY	7	54¢	$4	0x56e813…
08-30 13:03:27	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0x31d338…
08-29 13:33:27	Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-08-29?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xb8a9b3…
08-29 12:36:01	Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-08-29?	No	BUY	5	56¢	$3	0x5f8d67…
08-29 12:27:12	Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	SELL	10	23¢	$2	0x7cdb29…
08-29 12:26:57	Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	SELL	10	10¢	$1	0x9e0b9d…
08-25 17:22:54	Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0x202ffd…
08-25 17:20:22	Will Julian Alvarez join Arsenal?	Yes	BUY	10	20¢	$2	0x20fe83…
08-17 04:48:52	will anthropics valuation hit high 3pt0t by december 31	No	BUY	16	64¢	$10	0xc4d8cd…
08-12 02:52:42	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 12?	Yes	BUY	13	39¢	$5	0x7b19e4…
08-12 02:52:12	mlb col ari 2026 08 11	Arizona Diamondbacks	BUY	12	82¢	$10	0xeff949…
08-12 02:27:36	Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x9829b5…
08-12 02:27:06	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	62¢	$7	0xc5800c…
08-12 01:39:42	Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	SELL	16	47¢	$7	0x49c8e8…
08-11 06:54:16	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	SELL	11	55¢	$6	0xdc3016…
08-11 06:46:45	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	4	69¢	$3	0x486fbd…
08-11 06:16:03	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 11?	Yes	SELL	4	66¢	$2	0x7f6645…
08-11 06:14:43	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	6	34¢	$2	0x2ef2c1…
08-11 01:04:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on August 11?	Yes	BUY	4	55¢	$2	0xeed5c1…
08-10 02:21:40	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 10?	Yes	SELL	2	41¢	$1	0x4bbb81…
08-10 00:41:12	Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	5	40¢	$2	0x4fdefe…
08-10 00:40:42	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 10?	Yes	BUY	2	53¢	$1	0x604e6d…
08-08 01:39:34	will xagusd reach 66 in august 2026	Yes	BUY	4	78¢	$3	0x2a1739…
08-08 01:34:28	Will Rodri join Barcelona?	Yes	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x1a9e0a…
08-08 01:32:27	mlb laa mia 2026 08 07	Los Angeles Angels	BUY	6	85¢	$5	0x1b2e6d…
08-08 01:30:51	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 34°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	4	53¢	$2	0xad09fa…
08-08 01:28:18	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 8?	Yes	SELL	5	40¢	$2	0x3708a1…
08-07 04:29:25	will xagusd dip to 54 in august 2026	No	BUY	6	80¢	$5	0x341162…
08-07 04:28:10	Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 8?	Yes	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x65bd7e…
08-07 04:24:07	will super typhoon dolphin hit china 20260730202351925	Yes	BUY	2	95¢	$2	0x81d8ca…
08-07 01:32:57	mlb cws bos 2026 08 06	Boston Red Sox	BUY	4	49¢	$2	0x1ef4ed…
08-07 01:32:25	mlb mia atl 2026 08 06	Atlanta Braves	BUY	5	87¢	$4	0xc641d1…
08-06 00:54:47	will wti reach 85 in august 2026	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x6b9ebf…
08-06 00:53:11	mlb nym cle 2026 08 05	New York Mets	BUY	3	75¢	$2	0xe89946…
08-06 00:52:38	mlb cws bos 2026 08 05	Boston Red Sox	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0xb6756b…
08-04 15:42:54	will trump say covid or warp speed during remarks in las vegas 20260803153421452	No	BUY	9	58¢	$5	0x6d40a8…
08-01 08:38:06	Will Vinicius Junior stay at Real Madrid?	Yes	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0x01c251…
08-01 02:22:00	will xauusd reach 4300 in august 2026	No	BUY	8	66¢	$5	0x0b9261…
08-01 02:20:03	will xauusd dip to 3800 in august 2026	No	BUY	7	71¢	$5	0x2afb2e…
07-30 16:13:08	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x42bdeb…
07-29 00:08:05	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 in August?	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xa7ee20…
07-26 15:51:33	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	12	83¢	$10	0x3eb25f…
07-26 15:50:39	will cxmts closing ipo market cap be at least 3pt5t yuan 20260723150651778	No	BUY	7	73¢	$5	0xd8186c…
07-22 01:07:07	Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	BUY	7	75¢	$5	0x109169…
07-22 01:05:39	Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?	Yes	BUY	11	88¢	$10	0x2ec2ff…
07-22 01:04:18	Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?	Yes	BUY	11	93¢	$10	0x9100d4…
07-15 16:18:29	will xauusd reach 4300 in july 2026	No	BUY	24	85¢	$20	0x2ded1a…
07-15 16:17:22	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?	No	BUY	15	69¢	$10	0xfa87b8…
07-12 00:48:47	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?	Yes	BUY	9	57¢	$5	0x4355c2…
07-11 15:47:55	Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?	No	BUY	5	75¢	$4	0xd3ce2c…
07-11 01:34:38	Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	BUY	6	78¢	$5	0x6ad084…
07-10 16:10:41	Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?	No	BUY	7	84¢	$6	0x8ead8a…
07-08 16:58:59	Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0xe0f31c…
07-08 16:56:38	will xagusd reach 68 in july 2026	No	BUY	35	87¢	$30	0x1f599f…
07-07 15:57:25	Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	11	27¢	$3	0xbc904e…
07-07 15:57:10	Will Argentina win on 2026-07-07?	Yes	BUY	7	74¢	$5	0x45312a…
07-06 15:09:17	Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xff0f13…
07-05 02:18:32	will xauusd reach 4400 in july 2026	No	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x7224bf…
07-05 02:16:52	Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	BUY	11	36¢	$4	0x6d6f88…
07-05 02:15:55	Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?	Yes	BUY	14	21¢	$3	0x049c3d…
06-29 15:54:28	Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	No	BUY	11	45¢	$5	0x69d7b6…
06-25 01:10:22	Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	BUY	10	52¢	$5	0xeedd38…
06-23 16:03:25	fifwc eng gha 2026 06 23 spread home 1pt5	England	BUY	8	63¢	$5	0x853dee…
06-23 16:02:37	fifwc prt uzb 2026 06 23 spread home 1pt5	Portugal	BUY	7	69¢	$5	0xe42c84…
06-23 04:27:49	Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw?	Yes	BUY	12	33¢	$4	0xef6dff…
06-23 04:13:34	Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	24	42¢	$10	0xc2bab8…
06-23 04:12:59	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	SELL	8	28¢	$2	0x07d81e…
06-23 01:56:10	Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	8	65¢	$5	0x57ddb7…
06-23 01:56:05	Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	BUY	6	91¢	$5	0x2ab951…
06-22 16:57:41	fifwc fra irq 2026 06 22 total 4pt5	Under	BUY	7	67¢	$5	0xcaea2b…