Hollow-Proponent — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$2

Unrealized P&L

-$3

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

lifetime

Volume

$297

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-03

last 06-03 11:50

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Other

43% 100% +$1

Politics

42% 100% +$1

Tech

9% — —

Crypto

5% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

14 active days in 12wk • peak 12 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (2) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No		+5	$4	70¢	$4	$-0	06-03 11:50
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No		+7	$5	36¢	$3	$-2	06-03 11:49

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	3	$28	16	16	+0	open	—	04-28 15:34
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	2	$27	18	18	+0	open	—	04-10 23:07
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	3	$20	12	12	+0	open	—	04-28 15:34
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	2	$20	16	16	+0	open	—	04-14 14:25
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	2	$20	13	13	+0	open	—	04-06 11:10
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	2	$18	10	10	+0	open	—	04-06 11:10
Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	2	$15	23	23	+0	open	—	05-10 15:05
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	2	$13	7	7	+0	open	—	05-14 21:58
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	2	$13	8	8	+0	open	—	04-28 15:34
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	2	$10	6	6	+0	open	—	05-13 16:39
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	2	$9	8	8	+0	open	—	04-06 11:10
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	2	$9	5	5	+0	open	—	05-13 16:39
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	2	$6	4	4	+0	open	—	05-10 15:08
Will Trump visit China by May 31?	2	$6	12	12	+0	open	—	04-14 14:25
Will Solana reach $100 in May?	2	$5	3	3	+0	open	—	05-26 20:29
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	2	$5	4	4	+0	open	—	05-25 21:44
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	1	$5	7	0	+7	open	—	06-03 11:49
us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	1	$5	11	0	+11	open	—	04-14 14:26
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?	1	$5	9	0	+9	open	—	06-03 11:49
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	1	$5	6	0	+6	No	+$1	04-28 15:37
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	2	$4	2	2	+0	open	—	05-27 13:29
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	1	$4	5	0	+5	open	—	06-03 11:50
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	1	$3	4	0	+4	Yes	+$1	05-10 15:13
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	1	$3	3	0	+3	open	—	05-27 13:20
Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?	1	$2	2,200	0	+2,200	open	—	04-14 14:28
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	1	$2	0	2	-2	open	—	05-27 13:21
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-25 21:43
Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	2	$2	1	1	+0	open	—	05-25 21:43
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	1	$2	3	0	+3	open	—	05-25 21:59
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15?	1	$2	6	0	+6	open	—	05-14 22:05

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-03 11:50:05	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	No	BUY	5	80¢	$4	0x3c9581…
06-03 11:49:45	US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	BUY	7	68¢	$5	0x7ad141…
06-03 11:49:33	US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31?	No	BUY	9	56¢	$5	0x60bef8…
05-27 13:30:18	Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	39¢	$2	0x344808…
05-27 13:29:20	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	SELL	2	91¢	$2	0x2e299f…
05-27 13:21:33	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	No	SELL	2	94¢	$2	0x3099ff…
05-27 13:20:45	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3	93¢	$3	0x160f6a…
05-26 20:29:04	Will Solana reach $100 in May?	No	SELL	3	99¢	$3	0x3cada3…
05-25 22:01:08	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xf6cc61…
05-25 22:00:50	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x182035…
05-25 22:00:08	Will Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?	No	BUY	2	98¢	$2	0xdfd525…
05-25 21:59:51	Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in May?	No	BUY	3	71¢	$2	0x26f701…
05-25 21:58:13	MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x29fa2a…
05-25 21:56:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May?	No	BUY	4	57¢	$2	0xdb174d…
05-25 21:55:48	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May?	No	BUY	2	82¢	$2	0x1bdaeb…
05-25 21:52:07	Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	BUY	2	83¢	$2	0xd9033b…
05-25 21:44:29	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	4	84¢	$3	0x59f746…
05-25 21:43:33	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	1	98¢	$1	0x88ad60…
05-25 21:43:19	Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	No	SELL	1	97¢	$1	0xd4051c…
05-25 21:42:42	Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xdfd28c…
05-14 22:05:42	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	2	86¢	$2	0xa5938f…
05-14 22:05:30	Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 15?	Yes	BUY	6	33¢	$2	0xcafcdd…
05-14 22:02:58	Israeli parliament dissolved by May 31?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0xbfce40…
05-14 22:01:34	Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x096730…
05-14 22:00:25	US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	88¢	$1	0x4ac8b6…
05-14 21:58:46	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	7	100¢	$7	0xa2a17c…
05-14 21:58:19	Starmer out by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	84¢	$1	0x320cc5…
05-13 16:45:17	Will Solana reach $100 in May?	No	BUY	3	60¢	$2	0x5562f6…
05-13 16:40:20	Will Trump say "Crypto" or "Bitcoin" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	20	10¢	$2	0x6fcc06…
05-13 16:39:47	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	SELL	5	88¢	$5	0x392723…
05-13 16:39:27	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	6	93¢	$5	0x37a492…
05-13 16:38:58	Will Trump say "Tariff" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0xf41ebb…
05-13 16:38:47	Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	2	84¢	$2	0x856640…
05-13 16:38:42	Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	87¢	$1	0x524654…
05-13 16:38:35	Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with Xi Jinping?	Yes	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x48bb6f…
05-10 15:16:43	Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	5	78¢	$4	0x594478…
05-10 15:14:23	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	7	86¢	$6	0x9cdb93…
05-10 15:14:09	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4	54¢	$2	0xe29b87…
05-10 15:13:52	Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?	Yes	BUY	4	70¢	$3	0xd34e84…
05-10 15:12:40	Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	6	87¢	$5	0x9c5879…
05-10 15:08:24	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	SELL	4	94¢	$3	0x267d97…
05-10 15:05:43	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	Yes	SELL	23	54¢	$12	0x7a5d73…
04-28 15:37:24	US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 5, 2026?	No	BUY	6	83¢	$5	0xc69778…
04-28 15:36:38	Starmer out by May 15, 2026?	No	BUY	4	84¢	$3	0x653f88…
04-28 15:34:42	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	12	92¢	$11	0x28ccee…
04-28 15:34:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	No	SELL	8	98¢	$8	0xcccac2…
04-28 15:34:12	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	SELL	16	100¢	$16	0x12605f…
04-28 15:33:36	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by April 30, 2026?	Yes	SELL	3	1¢	$0	0x10726a…
04-19 15:14:30	Aliens.gov confirmed immigration website?	Yes	BUY	23	13¢	$3	0x00b9cd…
04-19 15:13:18	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	6	79¢	$5	0x12f2df…
04-17 23:03:48	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	3	64¢	$2	0x09e18e…
04-17 23:03:08	Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by April 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	29¢	$1	0x8c8e4b…
04-17 23:01:40	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?	No	BUY	8	61¢	$5	0xb5689d…
04-14 14:28:41	Military action against Iran ends by April 17, 2026?	No	BUY	2,200	0¢	$2	0xcdc8b8…
04-14 14:26:35	us x iran diplomatic meeting by april 18 2026 456	No	BUY	11	46¢	$5	0xbc52ec…
04-14 14:25:51	Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	No	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0x79955e…
04-14 14:25:25	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	SELL	16	64¢	$10	0x387bde…
04-14 14:25:09	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	SELL	12	23¢	$3	0x21c85e…
04-10 23:14:31	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	No	BUY	16	61¢	$10	0x1eaf2d…
04-10 23:10:49	Will Trump visit China by May 31?	No	BUY	12	24¢	$3	0x7c60d3…
04-10 23:07:25	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	18	97¢	$17	0xcb7b9c…
04-10 23:06:19	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	BUY	6	79¢	$4	0xb50768…
04-06 11:11:43	Will a Claude Mythos model be released by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	18	56¢	$10	0xd1302b…
04-06 11:10:59	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	No	SELL	8	57¢	$4	0x9ea780…
04-06 11:10:49	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x06831b…
04-06 11:10:35	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	SELL	13	80¢	$10	0xac711c…
04-03 14:20:57	US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?	No	BUY	8	64¢	$5	0xfbf363…
04-03 14:20:23	US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	BUY	10	82¢	$8	0x97389d…
04-03 14:19:47	Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	BUY	13	79¢	$10	0xecf974…