Inborn-Shorts — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$6.10K

Unrealized P&L

+$6.37K

Hit rate

100.0%

Resolved

Trades

1,906

lifetime

Volume

$4.29M

lifetime

Avg / trade

$2.25K

Open exposure

$231.2K

2 positions

First seen

2026-04-20

last 06-03 04:04

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 2 days

Categories

Politics

83% 100% +$6,104

Other

17% — —

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

36 active days in 12wk • peak 291 trades/day

Open positions (2) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No		+173,568	$160,544	96¢	$166.3K	+$5,734	06-03 04:04
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No		+66,867	$64,326	97¢	$65.0K	+$635	06-01 17:01

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	293	$691.5K	452,365	452,365	+0	open	—	05-23 19:09
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	64	$341.9K	188,521	158,759	+29,763	open	—	04-29 05:41
us x iran permanent peace deal by april 22 2026	186	$293.3K	331,484	0	+331,484	open	—	04-22 09:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?	149	$251.4K	292,004	200,000	+92,004	open	—	04-28 02:05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	27	$243.6K	152,285	100,000	+52,285	No	+$2,723	05-10 18:37
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	64	$229.5K	195,686	134,849	+60,837	open	—	05-26 18:55
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	81	$227.4K	117,352	118,167	-815	open	—	05-23 13:31
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	172	$184.0K	74,092	124,228	-50,136	open	—	05-26 13:57
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?	54	$180.1K	184,769	0	+184,769	open	—	05-01 04:02
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	30	$178.4K	196,075	0	+196,075	open	—	05-29 16:04
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	57	$167.8K	85,760	85,760	+0	open	—	05-19 04:59
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	14	$160.5K	173,568	0	+173,568	open	—	06-03 04:04
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	26	$148.2K	100,000	50,000	+50,000	open	—	05-15 10:17
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	4	$111.3K	58,285	58,285	+0	open	—	05-24 07:14
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 24th?	22	$94.8K	95,193	0	+95,193	open	—	04-24 20:05
will israel conduct military action against iran by april 21 2026	63	$91.7K	92,032	0	+92,032	open	—	04-26 19:23
Israel closes its airspace by May 8?	65	$89.9K	91,507	0	+91,507	No	+$1,631	05-08 18:29
trump announces end of military operations against iran by april 21st	8	$85.5K	92,386	0	+92,386	open	—	04-20 13:12
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	14	$64.3K	66,867	0	+66,867	open	—	06-01 17:01
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	34	$58.3K	29,957	30,307	-350	open	—	05-25 06:01
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	169	$58.2K	81,093	81,093	+0	open	—	05-20 23:13
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?	23	$48.4K	25,000	25,000	+0	open	—	04-24 08:36
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	12	$48.2K	50,000	0	+50,000	No	+$1,750	05-07 18:45
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	62	$38.7K	25,000	25,000	+0	open	—	05-13 14:19
Madrid Open: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Blockx	9	$38.2K	25,129	25,129	+0	open	—	04-23 09:55
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?	7	$27.3K	15,356	15,356	+0	open	—	04-24 14:01
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026?	25	$26.4K	19,141	8,605	+10,536	open	—	04-27 20:54
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	1	$22.5K	22,998	0	+22,998	open	—	05-15 10:40
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	1	$17.4K	22,000	0	+22,000	open	—	05-20 18:02
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026?	112	$17.3K	74,185	75,000	-815	open	—	05-12 15:08

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
06-03 04:04:21	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	50,642	95¢	$48,107	0xd8a506…
06-03 04:04:05	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	15,815	94¢	$14,810	0x0addec…
06-02 21:19:08	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6,581	92¢	$6,081	0x699f2d…
06-02 20:49:12	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	22,933	92¢	$21,190	0x85fdb8…
06-02 20:34:50	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	487	92¢	$450	0x4c8c4c…
06-02 05:55:29	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	664	91¢	$606	0x1ae732…
06-01 17:27:23	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6	94¢	$6	0x485b83…
06-01 17:27:20	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	6,935	94¢	$6,505	0x79dca9…
06-01 17:27:20	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	69	94¢	$64	0x1f1617…
06-01 17:27:02	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	1,558	94¢	$1,462	0xc8abc6…
06-01 17:22:19	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	17,970	94¢	$16,855	0x9c4265…
06-01 17:21:47	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	18,605	94¢	$17,451	0xbe67e9…
06-01 17:01:36	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	263	96¢	$253	0xd9cbfe…
06-01 17:01:20	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	2,000	96¢	$1,924	0xd0d0bb…
06-01 17:01:03	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	5,000	96¢	$4,810	0x5b9dbf…
06-01 16:57:52	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	1	96¢	$1	0xdf7e2b…
06-01 16:50:05	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	4,492	96¢	$4,321	0xf86b97…
06-01 16:41:55	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	5,111	96¢	$4,917	0x9860b6…
06-01 15:34:18	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	4,857	94¢	$4,556	0x6e6cf2…
06-01 14:09:00	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	27,364	96¢	$26,324	0x92b6d5…
06-01 08:13:52	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	22,541	96¢	$21,684	0xee6650…
06-01 07:54:49	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x654a44…
06-01 07:54:44	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	55	96¢	$53	0x781bd1…
06-01 07:47:19	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	26	96¢	$25	0xa5322c…
06-01 07:38:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x8d38b5…
06-01 07:38:10	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	4	96¢	$4	0x2d5633…
06-01 07:32:27	Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	BUY	2	96¢	$2	0x27c877…
05-29 16:53:58	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	BUY	26,447	85¢	$22,400	0xf6967a…
05-29 16:04:37	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,935	94¢	$4,664	0x5e1b6b…
05-27 22:40:19	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	8,307	96¢	$7,991	0xc900f5…
05-27 22:40:12	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	10,120	96¢	$9,716	0x1305a6…
05-27 06:26:09	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	200	91¢	$182	0x03f279…
05-27 06:24:54	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	575	91¢	$524	0xf3d3c7…
05-27 06:23:37	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	373	91¢	$340	0xf3f6e1…
05-27 04:35:59	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	151	91¢	$137	0xc08ad6…
05-27 04:27:18	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	169	91¢	$154	0xd8fbd8…
05-27 02:22:03	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,125	92¢	$1,961	0xb14f74…
05-27 02:19:33	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	167	92¢	$154	0x43f72a…
05-26 21:20:13	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	897	93¢	$831	0xd55826…
05-26 19:17:28	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,400	94¢	$4,127	0x5b6753…
05-26 19:17:16	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6,063	93¢	$5,638	0x06c96b…
05-26 18:56:02	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	240	92¢	$221	0x920572…
05-26 18:56:00	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	500	92¢	$462	0x3204ff…
05-26 18:55:06	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,950	92¢	$4,569	0xd29532…
05-26 18:55:06	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1,240	92¢	$1,145	0xa0abe3…
05-26 18:55:04	US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	SELL	84,849	99¢	$83,916	0xc6eb49…
05-26 18:51:57	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	130	92¢	$120	0x8e6824…
05-26 18:35:37	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	4,000	92¢	$3,692	0x59314f…
05-26 18:35:35	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	3,999	92¢	$3,691	0x9af1ac…
05-26 18:35:33	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	649	92¢	$599	0xbb2a3d…
05-26 18:16:43	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	2,051	94¢	$1,934	0xaca05c…
05-26 17:36:38	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	17,834	94¢	$16,742	0xdf6bd0…
05-26 13:57:43	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	114,294	97¢	$110,637	0xbafc66…
05-26 13:55:49	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	8	97¢	$7	0xe79cd8…
05-26 13:54:37	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	171	97¢	$166	0x16624b…
05-26 13:54:32	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	395	97¢	$382	0x945b93…
05-25 15:58:35	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	52,000	85¢	$44,304	0x509d50…
05-25 09:40:11	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	43,458	92¢	$40,025	0xc80b36…
05-25 09:30:53	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	29	92¢	$27	0x678050…
05-25 09:29:44	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	156	92¢	$144	0x43b7c1…
05-25 09:18:48	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	19,950	92¢	$18,374	0xa351d2…
05-25 09:18:48	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	14	92¢	$13	0x3484df…
05-25 09:10:21	Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	BUY	6,393	92¢	$5,888	0x93a02e…
05-25 07:42:14	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	100	78¢	$78	0xa8605a…
05-25 07:37:04	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	876	78¢	$683	0x7cd71c…
05-25 07:34:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	68	78¢	$53	0xa6d786…
05-25 07:31:26	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	300	78¢	$234	0x103547…
05-25 07:31:02	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	136	78¢	$106	0xa35a3f…
05-25 07:24:54	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	60	78¢	$47	0x7fe542…
05-25 07:20:35	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	251	78¢	$196	0xc320fb…
05-25 06:59:13	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	13,636	78¢	$10,636	0xaa4548…
05-25 06:53:47	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May?	Yes	BUY	432	78¢	$337	0x4231a5…
05-25 06:01:54	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	SELL	26,063	98¢	$25,593	0x38694b…
05-25 06:00:39	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	3	100¢	$2	0xc5fc8d…
05-25 06:00:35	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	4	100¢	$4	0xe20f53…
05-25 06:00:35	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0xc35afa…
05-25 05:50:31	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0x87fed4…
05-25 05:46:11	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	SELL	144	98¢	$141	0xfd7901…
05-25 05:46:09	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	263	100¢	$262	0x266b43…
05-25 05:37:26	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	SELL	3,552	98¢	$3,488	0x3d662f…
05-25 05:37:05	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	2	100¢	$2	0x48a8ba…
05-25 05:35:18	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	217	100¢	$216	0xb596bd…
05-25 05:34:10	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0xb8d26a…
05-25 05:33:28	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	SELL	20	98¢	$20	0xaec2db…
05-25 05:24:43	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	SELL	2	98¢	$2	0x4f004d…
05-25 05:23:59	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	10	100¢	$10	0x779c41…
05-25 05:23:33	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	SELL	15	98¢	$15	0x4d5120…
05-25 05:21:46	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	SELL	509	98¢	$500	0xe9eb81…
05-25 05:21:37	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	6,000	100¢	$5,982	0xf2cb8d…
05-25 05:20:24	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	1	100¢	$1	0xb2f16c…
05-25 05:08:17	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	SELL	2,857	100¢	$2,849	0x613eaa…
05-24 12:31:22	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	1,169	95¢	$1,113	0xf8bc00…
05-24 12:29:50	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	50	95¢	$48	0x83387e…
05-24 12:28:06	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	80	95¢	$76	0x48f884…
05-24 12:25:11	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	400	95¢	$381	0x97abba…
05-24 12:25:04	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	1,480	95¢	$1,409	0x72e8f6…
05-24 12:24:05	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	1,678	95¢	$1,597	0x83371d…
05-24 12:17:54	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	795	95¢	$757	0x751d38…
05-24 11:56:50	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	88	95¢	$83	0xfcaa82…
05-24 11:47:44	Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?	Yes	BUY	1,203	95¢	$1,146	0x0a8a52…