Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

+$14

Unrealized P&L

+$0

Hit rate

59.9%

Resolved

149

Trades

161

lifetime

Volume

$225

lifetime

Avg / trade

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-07-22

last 11-05 12:11

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 68 days

Categories

Other

91% 59% +$10

Politics

7% 67% +$4

Tech

2% 67% +$0

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

60 active days in 12wk • peak 5 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (30) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes		+1	$1	94¢	$1	+$0	11-03 04:48

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
spy up or down on july 31 2026	1	$2	3	+3	Up	+$1	07-31 12:57
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	+$1	07-23 21:08
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 13 to August 15, 2026?	1	$2	2	+2	No	+$0	08-13 11:31
trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	-$2	09-19 07:57
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	09-10 04:39
spy up or down on september 18 2026	1	$2	4	+4	Down	+$2	09-18 01:09
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from September 10 to September 12, 2026?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	09-10 12:43
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	08-08 17:49
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-19 15:07
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 11 to September 18, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	Yes	+$4	09-17 08:40
us x iran effective ceasfire by july 31 20260715194822045	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	-$2	08-03 09:33
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in August?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	08-22 17:12
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 15 to September 22, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-17 17:05
Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	1	$2	5	+5	Yes	+$3	09-21 20:11
Will Costco say "Expansion" during earnings call?	1	$2	2	+2	Yes	+$0	09-23 05:12
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of September 21 2026?	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	09-21 12:05
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$2	9	+9	No	-$2	09-12 06:51
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 8 to September 15, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	Yes	-$2	09-11 22:45
Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 28, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-23 13:12
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.3% in July?	1	$2	8	+8	No	-$2	08-04 01:36
will coin reach 160 by august 3 2026	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-04 09:36
will abnb reach 184 by august 10 2026	1	$2	4	+4	Yes	-$2	08-10 02:52
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	09-20 03:04
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-19 06:50
Will UK GDP growth in Q2 2026 be between 0.2% and 0.3%?	1	$2	4	+4	No	+$2	08-05 13:38
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-16 04:53
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 20 to August 22, 2026?	1	$2	6	+6	No	-$2	08-20 20:57
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in July?	1	$2	7	+7	No	-$2	08-21 05:10
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?	1	$2	9	+9	Yes	+$7	08-13 19:38
Will USD be between 1.9M and 2.0M Iranian rials on August 31?	1	$2	3	+3	No	+$1	08-20 00:39

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-05 12:11:57	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 5 to November 7, 2026?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0x1278f9…
11-05 03:51:39	S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on November 5?	Down	BUY	2	54¢	$1	0xe0d5e2…
11-04 19:51:12	Will the October 2026 unemployment rate be 4.2%?	Yes	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0x1ae9da…
11-04 08:58:00	Will the US add at least 100k jobs in October?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xcc779b…
11-04 00:57:46	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from November 2 to November 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x3eec27…
11-03 04:48:15	Will Beyond Meat (BYND) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xbda102…
11-03 04:48:07	Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 7?	Yes	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x96bd37…
11-02 08:47:57	Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	30¢	$1	0x93fe46…
11-02 00:47:03	Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xd5e579…
11-01 16:17:33	Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from October 31 to November 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xe38e9d…
11-01 07:07:37	Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 3, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x6a8c86…
10-31 15:05:12	CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 90.5% to 92%?	No	BUY	2	60¢	$1	0x0c42e2…
10-30 20:44:33	Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from October 29 to October 31, 2026?	No	BUY	1	69¢	$1	0xedef82…
10-30 00:34:54	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 53.0 and 53.9 in October?	No	BUY	1	81¢	$1	0xff5dfd…
10-29 15:47:34	Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on October 31?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0x1a67be…
10-28 19:45:47	Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $168 in October?	Yes	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x2a7772…
10-27 23:33:36	Will the Central Bank of Colombia make no change to the monetary policy interest rate at the October meeting?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x14f540…
10-27 15:32:12	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xcd0fc1…
10-27 15:32:08	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (LOW) $52 in October?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x3a490a…
10-27 07:31:54	Gemini Carbon released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	21¢	$1	0xc9aee8…
10-26 23:31:33	Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 23 to October 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	25¢	$1	0xe97ef9…
10-25 14:39:03	Mastercard (MA) Q3 gross dollar volume growth (local currency basis) 7.5% to 8.5%?	Yes	BUY	2	49¢	$1	0xfc4fe6…
10-25 06:27:30	Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xb169f2…
10-24 22:26:41	Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xb103eb…
10-24 13:32:38	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 24 to October 26, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x4fecbf…
10-24 05:23:44	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 20 to October 27, 2026?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0xc1b740…
10-22 21:03:32	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x3d3319…
10-22 13:00:53	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 22 to October 24, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0x701e8d…
10-22 04:59:33	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0xe8e1ce…
10-21 20:45:39	Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from October 16 to October 23, 2026?	Yes	BUY	5	22¢	$1	0xda3c7e…
10-21 12:43:50	Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x9a2afe…
10-21 04:34:44	Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 26?	No	BUY	2	44¢	$1	0xf72adf…
10-19 04:26:41	Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (LOW) $92.50 Week of October 19 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0x9431bb…
10-18 20:26:33	Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	Yes	BUY	4	27¢	$1	0x86f4cd…
10-18 12:05:57	Will United Airlines (UAL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xd08132…
10-18 04:03:11	Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 13 to October 20, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x9c6e25…
10-17 19:08:11	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xb6624a…
10-17 10:56:24	United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%?	No	BUY	2	63¢	$1	0x6199f9…
10-16 19:02:04	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x056cf1…
10-16 07:47:46	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 15% to 17.5%?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0xf1d596…
10-15 23:40:51	Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%?	No	BUY	2	56¢	$1	0xaecdb5…
10-15 15:28:47	Will the Tesla Roadster fly for 1s+?	No	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x3eaf99…
10-15 07:28:43	spy up or down on october 15 2026	Up	BUY	3	38¢	$1	0xdd5a47…
10-14 23:28:36	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	32¢	$1	0x08f5fc…
10-13 03:00:42	spy up or down on october 13 2026	Up	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x2bc349…
10-12 06:59:46	Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 16?	Yes	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0xb233ae…
10-11 22:59:29	Progressive (PGR) Q3 combined ratio 86% to 89%?	No	BUY	2	46¢	$1	0xbfe3cb…
10-11 22:56:47	Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $785 Week of October 12 2026?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0x76f256…
10-11 14:47:31	Gemini 4.0 released by October 14, 2026?	No	BUY	2	55¢	$1	0xdae34a…
10-11 06:47:09	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	3	36¢	$1	0xe3e49d…
10-10 22:44:48	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	No	BUY	1	68¢	$1	0xac5030…
10-10 13:45:25	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.4% in September?	No	BUY	1	70¢	$1	0x013b7c…
10-10 13:41:07	Will annual inflation be 3.7% in September?	No	BUY	2	64¢	$1	0x5433ee…
10-10 05:30:33	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x906a0e…
10-10 05:22:07	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in September?	No	BUY	1	67¢	$1	0xcccda3…
10-09 17:39:19	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 5-October 11?	No	BUY	1	73¢	$1	0x62b454…
10-09 09:32:46	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in September?	No	BUY	2	66¢	$1	0xebf26d…
10-08 23:47:42	Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from October 8 to October 10, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xd7abd9…
10-08 15:41:06	Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in September?	Yes	BUY	3	37¢	$1	0x09bbfa…
10-08 06:38:39	Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	71¢	$1	0x711978…
10-07 22:29:22	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x4a49b4…
10-07 14:28:47	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0xe99508…
10-07 05:41:56	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xd3e219…
10-06 21:41:20	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0x49d17b…
10-06 13:41:01	Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xc4159d…
10-06 05:36:39	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	26¢	$1	0xdf7980…
10-05 21:34:55	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xafcad8…
10-05 12:45:53	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $64 Week of October 5 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x0bae03…
10-05 04:22:49	spy closes above 770 on october 5 2026	No	BUY	2	59¢	$1	0x73a162…
10-04 20:22:41	Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x712d96…
10-04 06:18:37	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	75¢	$1	0x6ea95a…
10-03 16:09:41	Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from October 3 to October 5, 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x4cff28…
10-03 01:14:00	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 2 to October 9, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0xf5be90…
10-02 22:05:23	Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x433a52…
10-02 14:02:48	Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on October 2?	Down	BUY	3	34¢	$1	0x56484f…
10-02 05:59:32	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	2	65¢	$1	0x51e63c…
10-01 20:19:17	Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	76¢	$1	0x71f452…
10-01 12:11:14	Will Silver (XAGUSD) hit (HIGH) $63 Week of September 28 2026?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x1cf99e…
10-01 12:02:41	spx up or down on october 1 2026	Down	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0x5d14f3…
10-01 12:02:33	spx up or down on october 1 2026	Up	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x6fd1da…
10-01 04:01:42	Will Trump name an AI czar by October 4, 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	40¢	$1	0x013f84…
09-30 06:48:59	spy up or down on september 30 2026	Down	BUY	2	42¢	$1	0x334b94…
09-29 22:48:51	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 29 to October 6, 2026?	No	BUY	1	80¢	$1	0x31759d…
09-27 14:38:51	Will Elon tweet 840-879 times in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	3	35¢	$1	0xe7ee00…
09-27 06:17:45	Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0xfb65f0…
09-26 22:16:15	Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in September?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x73a77e…
09-26 13:54:08	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 25 to October 2, 2026?	No	BUY	1	79¢	$1	0xbcebf2…
09-26 05:54:02	Will ISM Manufacturing PMI be between 54.0 and 54.9 in September?	No	BUY	1	72¢	$1	0x712914…
09-25 21:51:21	Will Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (RKLB) hit (HIGH) $80 in September?	No	BUY	1	74¢	$1	0x48beb9…
09-25 13:51:12	Will there be exactly 3 North Korea tests in September 2026?	Yes	BUY	2	41¢	$1	0x1a143e…
09-25 05:41:44	0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by September 30?	Yes	BUY	4	23¢	$1	0xd99bb6…
09-25 05:41:33	Trump renames AI by September 30?	No	BUY	1	78¢	$1	0x2e3f29…
09-23 21:40:52	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 22 to September 29, 2026?	No	BUY	3	77¢	$2	0xc17a3d…
09-23 13:12:47	Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 28, 2026?	No	BUY	3	72¢	$2	0xa53921…
09-23 05:12:37	Will Costco say "Expansion" during earnings call?	Yes	BUY	2	81¢	$2	0x49130c…
09-21 20:11:43	Will Trump say "Epic Fury" during his remarks at the United Nations General Assembly?	Yes	BUY	5	44¢	$2	0xa97353…
09-21 12:05:24	Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,450 Week of September 21 2026?	No	BUY	4	50¢	$2	0x19342e…
09-20 03:04:52	Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from September 19 to September 21, 2026?	No	BUY	3	66¢	$2	0x9d2d29…
09-19 16:18:15	Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	No	BUY	3	79¢	$2	0xf31bc5…
09-19 07:57:39	trump x greenland deal signed by september 23	No	BUY	5	37¢	$2	0x21fdce…