Wallet — Polymarket

Realized P&L

-$128

Unrealized P&L

-$0

Hit rate

26.7%

Resolved

Trades

722

lifetime

Volume

$10.1K

lifetime

Avg / trade

$14

Open exposure

1 position

First seen

2026-10-27

last 11-01 13:25

Equity curve

cumulative realized P&L over 8 days

Categories

Other

73% 22% -$117

Politics

13% 43% -$8

Tech

13% 20% -$2

Sports

1% 0% -$1

Crypto

0% 0% -$1

Activity

Mon

Wed

Fri

6 active days in 12wk • peak 246 trades/day

Open positions (1) Resolved markets (3) Recent trades Correlated wallets

Market	Outcome	Mid 30D	Net shares	Cost basis	Current mid	Current value	Unrealized P&L	Last trade
Will Ursula von der Leyen visit Ukraine by December 31, 2026?	Yes		+6	$3	49¢	$3	$0	10-29 09:02

Market	Trades	Volume USD	Bought	Sold	Net shares	Resolution	P&L	Last activity
Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31?	4	$453	309	309	+0	open	—	10-30 20:44
Will Harry Kane (Bayern Munich) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Bundesliga season?	4	$319	309	309	+0	open	—	11-01 13:23
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	2	$313	215	215	+0	open	—	10-30 23:30
Will Uganda win AFCON 2027 qualifying Group H?	2	$252	203	203	+0	open	—	10-29 14:26
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31?	2	$251	206	206	+0	open	—	11-01 00:21
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the cash rate target by 25 bps at the March meeting?	2	$222	309	309	+0	open	—	10-31 20:18
Will Anthropic be the second-best AI lab at the end of December 2026?	8	$219	210	210	+0	open	—	10-29 16:39
US imports Russian diesel by November 15?	7	$210	200	200	+0	open	—	10-29 06:20
Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?	2	$196	103	103	+0	open	—	11-01 13:23
Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	2	$179	208	208	+0	open	—	10-31 18:17
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026?	9	$176	150	150	+0	open	—	10-31 04:05
Will the Bank of Japan make no change to the uncollateralized overnight call rate at the January meeting?	6	$173	241	241	+0	open	—	10-31 16:45
Will there be no next Claude Opus model (5.6+) release by November 30, 2026?	5	$171	155	155	+0	open	—	11-01 04:43
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by November 5, 2026?	3	$159	100	100	+0	open	—	10-28 15:49
Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	2	$153	100	100	+0	open	—	10-28 17:48
Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $318,000 and $323,000 on December 31?	5	$149	104	104	+0	open	—	10-31 18:28
Will Yair Lapid be the next Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs?	4	$147	100	100	+0	open	—	10-27 23:54
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% before 2027?	5	$139	93	91	+2	open	—	10-31 23:23
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	5	$130	158	158	+0	Yes	-$11	10-27 16:16
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	9	$120	80	80	+0	open	—	11-01 04:50
Will "A Derailment" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	2	$115	100	100	+0	open	—	10-29 03:31
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	2	$108	100	100	+0	open	—	10-28 21:27
Will Henrique Capriles win the next Venezuelan presidential election?	3	$106	60	60	+0	open	—	10-27 15:01
Republican Senate odds dip to 30% by October 31?	5	$100	100	100	+0	Yes	+$0	10-29 06:43
Will "The Tuners" be nominated for Best Documentary Short Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	2	$94	100	100	+0	open	—	10-29 16:44
Will the ECB make no change to the deposit facility rate at the March meeting?	3	$93	103	103	+0	open	—	11-01 03:22
Will Gen.G and T1 meet in the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	2	$87	52	52	+0	open	—	10-31 18:55
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	3	$86	50	50	+0	No	$0	10-29 10:48
Will "The Invite" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards?	2	$86	100	46	+54	open	—	10-29 10:08
Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.15% before 2027?	3	$85	100	100	+0	open	—	10-29 17:55

Time	Market	Outcome	Side	Size	Price	USD	Tx
11-01 13:25:57	Will UKMTO publish 8-11 notices between October 26-November 1?	Yes	SELL	4	73¢	$3	0xa30a46…
11-01 13:25:27	Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 IL-17 House election by 15%-20%?	No	SELL	10	63¢	$6	0xa68dc9…
11-01 13:25:01	Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	No	SELL	20	61¢	$12	0xd88ffb…
11-01 13:24:49	Will Apollo Global Management (APO) beat quarterly earnings?	No	SELL	24	48¢	$12	0x9b0777…
11-01 13:23:57	Will 20-24 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between October 26-November 1?	No	SELL	19	61¢	$11	0xce74c1…
11-01 13:23:36	Will the US economy be overheating at the end of 2026?	Yes	SELL	103	95¢	$98	0xe59323…
11-01 13:23:13	Will Harry Kane (Bayern Munich) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Bundesliga season?	Yes	SELL	279	48¢	$134	0x9dd1c3…
11-01 04:50:40	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	9	64¢	$6	0x0c9999…
11-01 04:43:04	Will there be no next Claude Opus model (5.6+) release by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	123	48¢	$59	0x0ad466…
11-01 04:43:00	Will there be no next Claude Opus model (5.6+) release by November 30, 2026?	No	SELL	33	48¢	$16	0x5a57a1…
11-01 04:41:45	Will there be no next Claude Opus model (5.6+) release by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	100	62¢	$62	0xb32e58…
11-01 04:41:45	Will there be no next Claude Opus model (5.6+) release by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	53	62¢	$33	0x9883be…
11-01 04:41:45	Will there be no next Claude Opus model (5.6+) release by November 30, 2026?	No	BUY	3	62¢	$2	0x0eea35…
11-01 03:22:27	Will the ECB make no change to the deposit facility rate at the March meeting?	Yes	SELL	9	35¢	$3	0xc9390e…
11-01 03:18:07	Will the ECB make no change to the deposit facility rate at the March meeting?	Yes	SELL	94	37¢	$35	0xce3bfa…
11-01 03:10:18	Will the ECB make no change to the deposit facility rate at the March meeting?	Yes	BUY	103	53¢	$55	0xfe85e2…
11-01 03:05:36	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	18	73¢	$13	0xa33f95…
11-01 03:02:10	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	27	74¢	$20	0x6fcee4…
11-01 01:58:49	Will "The Debut" be nominated for Best Film Editing at the 99th Academy Awards?	Yes	SELL	89	12¢	$11	0x040357…
11-01 01:22:01	Will the median home value in the US be less than $403,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	94	3¢	$3	0xf46a20…
11-01 01:11:58	Will the median home value in the US be less than $403,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x8c10ea…
11-01 00:50:03	Will the median home value in the US be less than $403,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	5	3¢	$0	0x189ec7…
11-01 00:34:09	Will the median home value in the US be less than $403,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	104	16¢	$17	0xd84573…
11-01 00:21:12	Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	206	57¢	$117	0x093603…
11-01 00:19:25	Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31?	Yes	BUY	206	65¢	$134	0xcb0095…
11-01 00:10:40	Will BLG be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	Yes	SELL	11	12¢	$1	0x968ec4…
10-31 23:55:01	Will Harry Kane (Bayern Munich) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Bundesliga season?	Yes	SELL	14	50¢	$7	0xf2a140…
10-31 23:23:52	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	25	79¢	$20	0x3a1ca0…
10-31 23:00:51	Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the cash rate target at the March meeting?	No	BUY	1	52¢	$0	0xd5fe8b…
10-31 22:44:42	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% before 2027?	Yes	SELL	25	79¢	$20	0xf6211f…
10-31 22:28:36	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	50	16¢	$8	0x5039e9…
10-31 22:25:01	Will the 30-year Treasury yield dip below 5.25% before 2027?	Yes	BUY	53	81¢	$43	0x25b104…
10-31 20:18:43	Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the cash rate target by 25 bps at the March meeting?	Yes	SELL	309	30¢	$93	0xb1efb5…
10-31 20:14:16	Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the cash rate target by 25 bps at the March meeting?	Yes	BUY	309	42¢	$130	0x870956…
10-31 19:49:06	Will Harry Kane (Bayern Munich) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Bundesliga season?	Yes	SELL	16	51¢	$8	0x500254…
10-31 19:47:51	Will Harry Kane (Bayern Munich) be the top goalscorer of the 2026-27 Bundesliga season?	Yes	BUY	309	55¢	$170	0xbf217a…
10-31 18:55:13	Will Gen.G and T1 meet in the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	No	SELL	52	82¢	$43	0x3f4b14…
10-31 18:46:13	Will Gen.G and T1 meet in the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?	No	BUY	52	85¢	$44	0xd80909…
10-31 18:28:09	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $318,000 and $323,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	44	64¢	$28	0x1d1eb3…
10-31 18:17:16	Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	Yes	SELL	208	39¢	$81	0x44d2a4…
10-31 18:11:37	Will GEN be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?	Yes	BUY	208	47¢	$98	0x86120a…
10-31 18:03:00	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	10	20¢	$2	0xb1a2eb…
10-31 17:57:40	Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	13	10¢	$1	0x399eb3…
10-31 17:23:12	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026?	Yes	SELL	0	20¢	$0	0x1dd852…
10-31 16:45:19	Will the Bank of Japan make no change to the uncollateralized overnight call rate at the January meeting?	No	SELL	161	23¢	$37	0xcdf357…
10-31 16:45:09	Will the Bank of Japan make no change to the uncollateralized overnight call rate at the January meeting?	No	SELL	50	23¢	$12	0x6199eb…
10-31 16:42:45	Will the Bank of Japan make no change to the uncollateralized overnight call rate at the January meeting?	No	BUY	211	43¢	$91	0xfd3764…
10-31 16:33:36	Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	6	10¢	$1	0x98a2a3…
10-31 16:28:36	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut at a score of at least 1430 by June 30, 2027?	No	BUY	50	21¢	$10	0xdf069a…
10-31 15:55:57	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	SELL	21	75¢	$16	0x01d57f…
10-31 15:19:00	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $318,000 and $323,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	20	67¢	$13	0xf2823a…
10-31 13:36:48	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026?	Yes	BUY	10	21¢	$2	0xe3d74f…
10-31 12:37:15	Will the Ornn RTX 5090 Index be less than $0.55 on November 30, 2026?	Yes	BUY	25	14¢	$4	0x5d70d8…
10-31 12:34:01	Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026?	Yes	SELL	22	34¢	$8	0xef1828…
10-31 12:34:01	Another critical PHP security flaw in 2026?	Yes	SELL	78	34¢	$26	0xed6b08…
10-31 11:30:43	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $318,000 and $323,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	20	69¢	$14	0x2209ef…
10-31 07:56:49	Will the Bank of Japan make no change to the uncollateralized overnight call rate at the January meeting?	Yes	SELL	30	53¢	$16	0x940c57…
10-31 06:25:33	Will the Bank of Japan make no change to the uncollateralized overnight call rate at the January meeting?	Yes	BUY	5	58¢	$3	0x7728ef…
10-31 06:25:33	Will the Bank of Japan make no change to the uncollateralized overnight call rate at the January meeting?	Yes	BUY	25	58¢	$15	0x5571d1…
10-31 05:21:58	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	SELL	20	83¢	$17	0xe91bad…
10-31 04:26:04	Will Space Exploration Technologies’ market capitalization be between $1.75T and $2.00T at the end of November 2026?	Yes	BUY	0	31¢	$0	0xfeae3a…
10-31 04:05:25	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	12¢	$2	0x462f6b…
10-31 02:05:48	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	1	12¢	$0	0x823bab…
10-30 23:39:19	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	14	11¢	$2	0xb5c7a7…
10-30 23:35:40	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026?	Yes	SELL	21	11¢	$2	0xe490a0…
10-30 23:30:49	Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1480?	No	SELL	215	71¢	$153	0x6278b1…
10-30 23:20:31	Will General Mills Q2 organic net sales growth be between -1.5% and 0%?	Yes	SELL	13	57¢	$7	0xa3b652…
10-30 22:53:03	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026?	Yes	BUY	50	18¢	$9	0x502c62…
10-30 21:42:39	Will Boaster play for Gentle Mates in 2027?	No	SELL	20	2¢	$0	0xe9f0f2…
10-30 21:36:15	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026?	No	SELL	50	80¢	$40	0x1d9d8f…
10-30 21:33:13	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 30 and December 6, 2026?	No	BUY	50	83¢	$42	0x493544…
10-30 21:28:12	Will Boaster play for Gentle Mates in 2027?	No	SELL	2	3¢	$0	0xe31200…
10-30 21:28:01	Will Boaster play for Gentle Mates in 2027?	No	SELL	28	3¢	$1	0x2954d2…
10-30 21:07:37	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	33	72¢	$24	0x9d20b7…
10-30 20:59:25	Will Boaster play for Gentle Mates in 2027?	No	SELL	48	12¢	$6	0x3b19d5…
10-30 20:44:07	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	187	63¢	$118	0x856128…
10-30 20:37:13	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	75	67¢	$50	0x660811…
10-30 20:18:37	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	48	74¢	$35	0x72670b…
10-30 20:11:55	Will the median home value in Los Angeles Metro be between $1,115,000 and $1,126,000 on December 31?	No	BUY	309	81¢	$250	0x68f2e8…
10-30 20:09:15	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be less than $3.50T at the end of 2026?	No	SELL	53	53¢	$28	0xbb116a…
10-30 19:49:13	Will General Mills Q2 organic net sales growth be between -1.5% and 0%?	Yes	SELL	43	46¢	$20	0x4d9306…
10-30 19:00:10	Will General Mills Q2 organic net sales growth be between -1.5% and 0%?	Yes	BUY	56	53¢	$30	0x548b35…
10-30 18:36:25	Will the median home value in NYC be between $445,000 and $458,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	26	28¢	$7	0xa993ff…
10-30 18:30:09	Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	No	SELL	58	6¢	$4	0xc39427…
10-30 18:27:16	Will the median home value in the Chicago Metro be between $318,000 and $323,000 on December 31?	No	SELL	20	62¢	$12	0xb52485…
10-30 18:04:52	Will Nikola Jokic lead the NBA in rebounds per game in 2026-27?	Yes	SELL	21	11¢	$2	0x3fe519…
10-30 17:59:19	Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	No	SELL	11	83¢	$9	0xa4b7c0…
10-30 16:22:27	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in October?	No	SELL	2	86¢	$2	0x95161e…
10-30 16:12:30	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in October?	No	SELL	20	86¢	$17	0xd60354…
10-30 16:04:34	Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	No	SELL	48	11¢	$5	0xd39163…
10-30 15:25:06	Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?	No	BUY	106	15¢	$16	0x8fa3d9…
10-30 15:22:13	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 12, 2026?	Yes	SELL	40	8¢	$3	0x924631…
10-30 15:13:04	Will Core CPI YoY be 2.5% in October?	No	BUY	22	88¢	$20	0xffd853…
10-30 15:11:58	Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be less than $3.50T at the end of 2026?	No	BUY	53	68¢	$36	0xd45574…
10-30 14:01:09	Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 12, 2026?	Yes	BUY	40	10¢	$4	0x37c9d5…
10-30 13:40:00	Will the highest score achieved by a SpaceXAI Grok model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?	Yes	SELL	54	37¢	$20	0xecefe1…
10-30 13:23:15	Will OpenRouter process between 185T and 195T tokens the week of November 2?	Yes	SELL	7	13¢	$1	0xffd8e1…
10-30 13:20:43	Will the median home value in NYC be between $445,000 and $458,000 on December 31?	Yes	SELL	0	33¢	$0	0x401b3a…
10-30 13:02:31	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x23b01f…
10-30 13:02:31	Will the next Fable model (5.2+) debut in the top 1 of the Text Arena leaderboard by June 30, 2027?	No	SELL	5	79¢	$4	0x137fd3…